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BroadstairsR

Paul Lambert Hasn't Got a Clue When buying forwards.

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Simeon Jackson had all the makings of being a great signing for us, and several other sides were interested in him who were of a Championship level.

 

I trust Lambert to make the right call, his record with us has earnt that trust.

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We saw last season that our management are good at finding players to come in and do what we need them to do, far be it from me to say they can''t do it again.I''d be happy for us to sign someone I''ve never even heard of. Maybe from the Championship. Maybe with an odd name. Maybe.

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[quote user="BroadstairsR"]

Moan? Get real.

 

This is a relevant discussion regards NCFC at this moment in time.

 

Moan? I back PL to the hilt, but he has not got everything right. The same as you.

 

Discuss, rather than add one liners.

[/quote]You are spot on.. this board is full of people hiding behind rocks! Open your eyes, the strikers he has brought aint good enough FACT....not moaning. We either want to go for the prem or not, we are there so why not have a good go....we may not be this close for a while!!!!

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Our goal difference come May, could be the difference between success and failure......

 

I realise and accept that some of our goals are coming from all quarters of the team, but a decent partnership of two front men I personally feel -would have made our goals ''for''.....somewhat healthier.....And possibly/probably.....brought a few more wins than draws.

 

  

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You''d think we''re struggling the way people are talking...

 

Think we''re the leagues 4th/5th highest scorers in actual fact.

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[quote user="Mello Yello"]

Our goal difference come May, could be the difference between success and failure......

 

I realise and accept that some of our goals are coming from all quarters of the team, but a decent partnership of two front men I personally feel -would have made our goals ''for''.....somewhat healthier.....And possibly/probably.....brought a few more wins than draws.

 

  

[/quote] I can except the argument our midfield are scoring and i think Holts contribution cant be quested , the others are simply not upto the job! and i fear this may cost us in teh run in, lets hope PL can sort this out and bring in someone fresh ready to score or add the team.

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As so many people tend to judge forwards on goals scored I thought I would do a little research into the overall goal scoring record of our team to see if we can gauge how our season may pan out from here. After all the main question we have been asking recently is ''Do we need another striker?''. Whether Paul Lambert knows what he is doing when it comes to the purchase of striker or not is a moot point if we already have the firepower within our ranks to get us over the line.

 

The goalscoring records of the top ten teams at present are as follows. QPR - 56, Swansea - 48, Cardiff - 55, Forest - 45, Norwich - 54, Leeds - 57, Leicester - 51, Burnley - 49, Hull - 39 and Reading 51. The average number of goals scored by the top ten is 50.5 so we are above average scorers. So a big well done to our attacking players? Watford are the top scorers in the division with 59 goals but they are thirteenth so make of that what you will.

 

Now take our goals per game average at the moment (1.59) and apply this to the twelve games that are left this season and we will end up with 73 goals. So how does that compare with the goalscoring records of the top six (assuming this is our target) over the past five seasons in The Championship? Average number of goals scored by the top six are below with notes on particularly high scorers in brackets with their goals scored and final position.

 

2005/06 - 73 (Reading 99 1st)

2006/07 - 70 (WBA 81 4th)

2007/08 - 66 (WBA 88 1st)

2008/09 - 68 (Wolves 80 1st)

2009/10 - 75 (Newcastle 90 1st, WBA 89 2nd)

 

So if we keep up our goals to games ratio for the rest of the season the number of goals scored will be equal to or more than the average goals scored by the top six in four of the past five years. In fact the only year that it would be less was last season where the figures appear to have been distorted by two teams scoring around ninety goals. It seems unlikely that anyone will get close to ninety goals this season.

 

So in terms of goals scored we are looking good for a top six finish. Could we go further and almost guarantee a top two finish if we scored more goals. The stats above show that teams who score eighty plus goals are highly likely to finish top but there are no guarantees this would happen for us. Should we gamble on getting a striker in now with twelve games to go and hope he gels with his team mates from the off? Or should we stick with the players who have got us this far (and who look set to cement a place in the play offs) and keep the faith in the desire and the winning mentality that Paul Lambert has given them?

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I think ultimately strikers are the most difficult players to sign. It is possible to get good players cheaply in any other area of the field but strikers come at a premium because obviously goals win games. So this means if you havent got much money you have to gamble on someone who is unproven at championship level in the hope they can make the transition. This will inevitably achieve mixed results.

 

Or you have to stump up in excess of £1 million for someone who has a proven track record. Players like Sharp and Maynard cost big money which Lambert hasnt had available to him until now. Even then spending big money is no gurantee of success. I remember when Nathan Ellington was meant to be the final piece of Aidy Boothroyd''s promotion jigsaw. He has been awful and currently sits in the Watford reserves picking up his money as they cant afford to play him again.

 

As for Lambert''s signings up front. Admittedly Lambert''s decision to sign Wilbraham was baffling. I could just about understand him being a back up target man should Holt have got injured. But to see him actually starting alongside Holt given his indifferent record in the lower leagues? As for Jackson I think the jury is still out on him. He has the ability to score goals and offer a genuine threat in behind the defence as he showed against Bristol City. Players like Sharp and even Iwan took time finding their feet after big moves so I wouldnt write him off just yet.

 

For the time being I personally think one up front is the way to go but if Lambert feels the need to play two up front I would prefer that he focused on Jackson who might be good enough rather than Wilbraham who has definitely proven over the course of 400 games that he is not good enough to play at this level.

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Broadstairs I completely agree with your viewpoint and have been saying this for months.  Even Lambert now acknowledges our need another striker particually since Martin has been injured as he is clearly looking to bring one in on loan, my arguement is we should have done this in Jan as what we had wasnt good enough, Holt apart and Martin when hes under pressure to perform.  Tin hat time............most people just see it as a moan, a criticism of Lambert etc and will constantly recite look at where we were, the little money we have had to spend etc etc but dont seem to be able to see the bigger picture that we might not get a better chance at automatic promotion for years, its what I call little old Norwich mentality. Norwich were for many many years an established top flight team that had even competed in Europe and hadnt even been in the 3rd tier except for last year for 50 years.  Lets get back to where I believe we belong, the Premier league.

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[quote user="Ernie"]Tin hat time............most people just see it as a moan, a criticism of Lambert etc and will constantly recite look at where we were, the little money we have had to spend etc etc but dont seem to be able to see the bigger picture that we might not get a better chance at automatic promotion for years, its what I call little old Norwich mentality.[/quote]

Yes, most people on here readily admit that we don''t have much quality up front beyond Grant Holt. Chris Martin blows hot and cold (mostly cold this season), and Jackson & Wilbraham have had comparatively few games to make much of a difference either way.

The contentious bit is extrapolating this to say that we should already have resolved this by splashing oodles of money at a striker.

To reiterate the point that''s being lost: the 2 million was available only AS FROM JANUARY.

Lambert presumably looked in the January transfer window (as did lots of managers), but was doubtless quoted silly prices, as tends to happen in the January window.

The same goes for now ... most Premier League clubs are holding on to their players, and the dross left to loan in will probably cos and arm and a leg, (and likely take a few matches to gel with anyone else at the club).

Or maybe we should''ve blown all of last summer''s transfer budget on one great striker, instead of on Crofts, Ward, Fox, Surman, Ruddy??? If so, we''d more likely be battling relegation.

So, rationally, it''s difficult to see that it''s PL''s fault or "down to a little old Norwich" attitude. The best you could say is that it''s Foulger''s fault for not having come up with the readies last summer, but personally I think that''s a tad harsh.

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[quote user="CambsCanary"][quote user="Ernie"]Tin hat time............most people just see it as a moan, a criticism of Lambert etc and will constantly recite look at where we were, the little money we have had to spend etc etc but dont seem to be able to see the bigger picture that we might not get a better chance at automatic promotion for years, its what I call little old Norwich mentality.[/quote] Yes, most people on here readily admit that we don''t have much quality up front beyond Grant Holt. Chris Martin blows hot and cold (mostly cold this season), and Jackson & Wilbraham have had comparatively few games to make much of a difference either way. The contentious bit is extrapolating this to say that we should already have resolved this by splashing oodles of money at a striker. To reiterate the point that''s being lost: the 2 million was available only AS FROM JANUARY. Lambert presumably looked in the January transfer window (as did lots of managers), but was doubtless quoted silly prices, as tends to happen in the January window. The same goes for now ... most Premier League clubs are holding on to their players, and the dross left to loan in will probably cos and arm and a leg, (and likely take a few matches to gel with anyone else at the club). Or maybe we should''ve blown all of last summer''s transfer budget on one great striker, instead of on Crofts, Ward, Fox, Surman, Ruddy??? If so, we''d more likely be battling relegation. So, rationally, it''s difficult to see that it''s PL''s fault or "down to a little old Norwich" attitude. The best you could say is that it''s Foulger''s fault for not having come up with the readies last summer, but personally I think that''s a tad harsh.[/quote]

Agree with alot of what you say but Lambert did say he had 3 transfer targets the last one being Elliot so he wasnt actively looking for another striker and as you have pointed out we already had a very strong, creative midfield.  I appreciate signing a decent striker is the hardest position to fill particually in Jan but as we know its even harder now.

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Thanks to the OP for raising this and getting a bit of debate going but Shack Attack''s post above sets out the facts quite clearly here - there is no case to answer on this.

We are doing very well when it comes to goal scoring and this is borne out in our current league position.

Perhaps rather than finding fault where there is none, some posters might want concentrate on other issues.

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"Agree with alot of what you say but Lambert did say he had 3 transfer targets the last one being Elliot so he wasnt actively looking for another striker and as you have pointed out we already had a very strong, creative midfield.  I appreciate signing a decent striker is the hardest position to fill particually in Jan but as we know its even harder now."

Very true. I suspect that what happened was this:

1.Lambert hoped that Martin would stay fit, especially given the probably exorbitant cost of signing a striker in January. In the event of injury, he knew we had an abundance of midfielders, especially with Surman due to come back, so we could play 4-5-1 successfully.

2. Wilbraham was bought as a cheap emergency back-up for Holt, in case of Holt being suspended/injured, to allow us at least to hold the ball up (an aspect sadly missing away at Millwall last season, I well remember, where McDonald and Martin couldn''t hold it up at all).

3. Lambert identified a lack of speed in the team as a weakness. After all, none of our midfield is especially quick, and McNamee has looked pretty lost over the past couple of months. Elliott Bennett was therefore targeted as a quick winger option.

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Do we all think Martin is injured ? seems a little suspicious to me he did his hamstring just as his court case was ongoing and we are getting very little news on how long he is out for . Imo he is in the doghouse for being a naughty boy.

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[quote user="YellowOne1"]Do we all think Martin is injured ? seems a little suspicious to me he did his hamstring just as his court case was ongoing and we are getting very little news on how long he is out for . Imo he is in the doghouse for being a naughty boy.[/quote]

I too think it is weird that we haven''t really been given much indication of how long he will be out for; he usually mentions those who are injured in his Friday''s press conference, but last week I found it strange that he said Lappin was out of hospital and is back at Colney but no mention of Martin

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[quote user="Mr Brownstone"]I think I''ll take Lambert''s opinion over yours if it''s ok with you Smudger, unless I missed your tenure as a league title winning manager.[/quote]

 

Amen to that x 100 (at least!!)

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[quote user="CambsCanary"]"Agree with alot of what you say but Lambert did say he had 3 transfer targets the last one being Elliot so he wasnt actively looking for another striker and as you have pointed out we already had a very strong, creative midfield.  I appreciate signing a decent striker is the hardest position to fill particually in Jan but as we know its even harder now." Very true. I suspect that what happened was this: 1.Lambert hoped that Martin would stay fit, especially given the probably exorbitant cost of signing a striker in January. In the event of injury, he knew we had an abundance of midfielders, especially with Surman due to come back, so we could play 4-5-1 successfully. 2. Wilbraham was bought as a cheap emergency back-up for Holt, in case of Holt being suspended/injured, to allow us at least to hold the ball up (an aspect sadly missing away at Millwall last season, I well remember, where McDonald and Martin couldn''t hold it up at all). 3. Lambert identified a lack of speed in the team as a weakness. After all, none of our midfield is especially quick, and McNamee has looked pretty lost over the past couple of months. Elliott Bennett was therefore targeted as a quick winger option.[/quote]

Martin getting injured has in some ways forced Lamberts hand but my point is that Martin had only scored 4 league goals before he got injured. Cant argue with points 2 or 3 though completely agree.

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there''s two ways of looking at this situation. is it a fact that we are not scoring enough goals, or, conversely, are we conceding too many. of the top six teams only leeds have conceded more(1) than us whilst three have scored more, the result being that leeds are the only team with a worse goal difference than us.

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Lambo has certainly bought some duds when it comes to forward players, but as others have said, he would most probably have done better with more funds to solve the problem.

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Jackson wasn''t prolific in League One last season.

 

For the people implying that it is actually the defence that is the issue.  Have you not cosidered that if our frontline was scoring more that it would take some of the pressure of the defence.  E.G. not trying to hang on to a 1 goal lead or pushing forward to get the equaliser or trying to grab a dramatic winner when we should already have been home and dry and hence we would concede fewer goals[:^)]

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[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

Jackson wasn''t prolific in League One last season.

 

For the people implying that it is actually the defence that is the issue.  Have you not cosidered that if our frontline was scoring more that it would take some of the pressure of the defence.  E.G. not trying to hang on to a 1 goal lead or pushing forward to get the equaliser or trying to grab a dramatic winner when we should already have been home and dry and hence we would concede fewer goals[:^)]

[/quote]

You will realise how good Lambert is once he has gone. Lamberts comments today can be read in various ways, but O''Neill said exactly the same about Villa fans before he left in the summer. On the budget we had could any manager have done better ???. As fans regularly state they are not prepared to pay top dollar for tickets - you cant have it all ways.

 

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We are amongst the top scorers so I dnt this we have a real striker problem

The issue is we concede a goal just about every game. Our midfield is creative enough as the number/proportion of missed chances by all our strikers shows. Had we been better defensively the spot light would not be how poorly all our strikers are when it comes to taking excellent chances - all the recent games have misses from wheelie bin jackson martin & holt that would have converted 1 pt to 3. That extra pressure to score know we will let one in does not help.

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[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]We are amongst the top scorers so I dnt this we have a real striker problem The issue is we concede a goal just about every game. Our midfield is creative enough as the number/proportion of missed chances by all our strikers shows. Had we been better defensively the spot light would not be how poorly all our strikers are when it comes to taking excellent chances - all the recent games have misses from wheelie bin jackson martin & holt that would have converted 1 pt to 3. That extra pressure to score know we will let one in does not help.[/quote]

Well said Zipper. Lambert has built a team that works for each other. This drills down even to the kids who are told this is a team game it does not matter who scores

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My initial O/P title was indeed provocative, but got the response.

 

In fairness it should have read: "Paul Lambert has had little succes when buying forwards."

 

For what it is worth, I agree with the arguments that bring up financial restraints and of those who suggest we should be happy to have come so far in so short a time.

 

Maybe the stupid boo-boys at the Doncaster game should remember this.

 

However, let''s hope that this week brings in the loanee that PL is obviously seeking. I stick to my contention that we are probably one decent goal-scorer away from promotion. 

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"Jackson ... a bit expensive for a "reserve." A bit of a disappointment actually."

Just 6 weeks later, this assessment now seems, frankly, laughable.

Man of the match against 1p5wich and again today.

Brilliant close control, electric pace, speed of thought, and the small matter of 8 goals in 6 games. Keep it up, clueless Jacko (& Lambo)!

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Personally I blame the board

where is the hambition ?

why haven''t the board pushed the boat out ?

why haven''t we got an hinvestor like the binners ?

booooooooooooooooooo !

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