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Rudolph Hucker

The Elusive 5 to 10% Extra Needed For Automatic Promotion

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The Championship is really tight this season and the second half of the season is likely to see it become even tighter as struggling sides fight harder and the play offs convince a broad number of clubs promotion is still on.

 

Generally, one or two sides will be out front and averaging the magic two points per game; but this season the leading pack is indistinct and bunched. Two points per game remains an aspiration. It is possible 78 or 80 points will secure automatic promotion for one side.

 

Generally, promotion is based upon constant winning; but so far this season an undefeated run dominated by draws has kept many sides in the chase, including Norwich.

 

In essence, a side like Norwich need to improve by only 5 to 10% to make it. So where does that come from?

 

For me, Lamberts biggest problem has been goals conceeded and home goals in particular. Part of this is because unlike say, West Brom, we are seeking promotion based on attacking play. PL continues to search for his best centre back pairing and it appears to me he wants CB''s who can receive and play the ball well and this is why Whitbread gets the nod over Nelson although for me Nelson is the most effective stopper, defender of set pieces and attacker in set pieces. With everyone fit, the decision PL makes here will add or detract to the extra needed and that is simply a tighter defence. The early Cardiff goal was perfect for their game plan and sides like Palace and Hull have transformed after scoring at FCR. How often have we had to come from behind this season? By cutting out this trend we will again improve.

Will the signing of an inspiration player like Lansbury make a difference? Perhaps, because he definately wants to be here and fighting.

With what we have got I want to see Crofts back to his fourth booking form. That will add value as will a potent support striker for Holt. Either Chris Martin needs to find ten more goals or Wilbraham needs to show more when he gets fit (and he is still doing so - he is a target man for the high ball and we didn''t have one before). For me, we need a proven goalscorer and if Chrissy cannot do it, with Jackson disappointing, we would do well to add one. Sides realise we struggle to break them down when they sit deep at FCR (as Orient did). You can let Wes buzz around with the ball at distance and a match fit Lansbury might pierce you but Norwich lack width and a goal poacher.

On the subject of width, our full back are magnificent. The underrated Simon Lappin can swing in a cross and for impact a late sub McNamee can add something but we lack a right winger who can get past defenders and Brighton refuse to sell us one. It appears PL is trying to fix this issue and perhaps backs the strikers he has if the supply improves.

So, while it seems a small percentage it is a crucial one to see us reach the top two as opposed to the top six. Does anyone else have thoughts as to how we might acheive the improvement?

 

 

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I agree with your point about conceding goals. I haven''t bet on a clean sheet in ages. 7 clean sheets in 26 games isn''t a great return. It seems strange because I do actually have faith in our team winning the games, just not keeping a clean sheet.

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The stats back your argument up Rude Old.  Most seasons the teams in the top 2 of any league are the teams who have conceded fewest, or if not the fewest, in the top 3 or 4.  Lambert favouring Whitbread over Nelson is common sense, all the hard work undertaken winning the ball can easily be thrown away if distribution is poor, and you end up inviting pressure back onto the defence.In this season, the top 2 are as likely to be decided by injuries as anything else.  This is why I find myself heartened by lower league signings of decent players who can come in and do a job if needed, and who will only improve once they get the full benefit of championship level training.  No big time charlies, no massive wages for one unsettling others I assume, just a squad of players getting their heads down, doing what they''re asked, and doing it effectively.  And very few "loons".

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It''s an interesting one, because your right about the clean sheets issue but how do you tighten up without losing the ability to play good attacking football?

At the moment it feels like we always have the ability to go and get a goal but promotion could be decided by stopping having to get back into the game after conceding e.g. Cardiff.

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these are very good points. i know our money is short, and just one of the two (winger or goalscorer) would be the most realistic outcome this january however lambert likes to gamble. he has definately gambled with wilbraham and despite his poor performance vs qpr i still believe lambert will get the best out of him at this level. i would love a new striker who is proven to score at this level however we have been scoring goals pretty consistently all season. the goals have been spread among the team and its nice to see happening as it gives each player a biug confidence boost when he scored- as seen with russell martin who is already on 4. i think what paul lambert has done with russell is terrific, and not just him and PL gives every player so much confidence- ecspecially players coming up from league 1. which is why i think wilbraham will turn out good. one more point on wilbraham was i noticed that he wanted the ball a lot more and he had the urge and determation that every other city player on the pitch has had for 1 and a half seasons now. going back to the winger idea, as i have just said, i believe that we have enough strike force to get us through this season with plenty more goals and another supplier of these goals would be superb. hoolahan is very, very creative and so is lansbury. would three creative midfielders be too much? i don''t think so because of our attacking ways. to add to this i think that if we feel we have to defend a game from the start- and this happens very rarely under PL- then we can revert to a 4-4-2 which has been affective when applied this season, and bring david fox back into the mix instead of either three. on the topic of width hoolahan is every across the width of the pitch, but as we see with lappin or mcnamee, a player who can sit out wide and collect the ball but create more with it than either two of them would be fantastic. not criticising either of the two as i believe they are great players, however the lack of creativity out wide has been an issue this year.

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