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Bethnal Yellow and Green

Goals to shots comparison (nerd alert)

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Can''t open it due the security certificate - otherwise I''d gladly join you in geekdom and stats analysis

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[quote user="Gingerpele"]30 on target shots for Chris Martin? How has he not scored more....[/quote]

It is a bit worrying he only scores with 7% of his shots. Would be great if there was more information available on Championship players, like if they are shooting from range etc.

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I think this shows how useful Chris Martin is, he does hit the target quite a lot which means he must set up plenty.

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woo, sabremetrics for football! Let''s sign all the fat kids who can hit the ball hard and go for the playoffs!

Anyone else read moneyball? Wonder if that sort of approach could work for us?

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Moneyball is a great read and I believe is being developed into a film starring Brad Pitt.

Baseball is a totally different sport and really lends itself to statistical analysis with particular individual stats such as the on base percentage having strong correlations to team performance and results.

Football is more of a team sport with far more interaction between individual players.

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[quote user="taintedtom2000"]Can i ask a possible silly question...?

How has Russell Martin had 3 shots on target and scored 4?

Do you take into account off target shots that deflected in?![/quote]The graphs look at the results of all shots taken, to avoid double counting "Shots on target" really means shots saved or deflected away. I should have made this clearer really. So for example Grant Holt has had a total of 28 shots on target, 10 of which resulted in goals 18 were saved or deflected.

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Nelson has scored two goals in seven appearances and I would imagine without that many shots to give him a good scoring percentage, but he does not appear to be in your stats. [:O]

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Would be great to have more detail - how many efforts were headers or shots,  whether in the 6 yard box, penalty area or outside,  how many rebounds became goals, proportion of strikers touches that were shots (did I see a game earlier this month where Torres only touch the ball a dozen times in a game or something??) and minutes on pitch/starts/appearances.

For Barnett the number of chances he has does not surprise me - he is themain target from corners and free kicks and I do get frustrated at how many efforts he has that go over the bar,  he cant seem to control the ball despite commandingly winning the ball!

As far as our strikers go the table below (if it comes out sensible) shows that when holt hits the target he is most likely to score,  but he is the most reluctant to have an effort and the most wayward when he does - some shooting practice needed.  Chris takes most efforts and gets them on target - I think it was the same last season, but why not so many goals then?  is it that he lacks power,  is being too safe making it easier for keepers or just facing better keepers? Other than the on target efforts not rippling  the onion bad his efforts and accuracy are the best we have overall our most natural finisher is  Wes - we have  to get the ball to him further up the pitch - his accuracy and finishing is the best we have over all but being in midfield only averages three shots in 2 games...

                                                      Efforts/start       % off target        % goals/on target            %goal/effort           Assists       start/goal

Holt         63 afforts in   26 starts,   2.4                   52%                        50%                           15%                  8                2.2

Martin      60 efforts on 20 starts    3.0                  38%                       10%                            7%                     2                 3.3

Jackson    33 efforts in 12 starts     2.75                45%                        22%                           12%                    1                 3.0

Hoolahan   31 in 22                       1.4                  35%                       40%                             25%                    1               2.75

 

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[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]

Would be great to have more detail - how many efforts were headers or shots,  whether in the 6 yard box, penalty area or outside,  how many rebounds became goals, proportion of strikers touches that were shots (did I see a game earlier this month where Torres only touch the ball a dozen times in a game or something??) and minutes on pitch/starts/appearances.

For Barnett the number of chances he has does not surprise me - he is themain target from corners and free kicks and I do get frustrated at how many efforts he has that go over the bar,  he cant seem to control the ball despite commandingly winning the ball!

As far as our strikers go the table below (if it comes out sensible) shows that when holt hits the target he is most likely to score,  but he is the most reluctant to have an effort and the most wayward when he does - some shooting practice needed.  Chris takes most efforts and gets them on target - I think it was the same last season, but why not so many goals then?  is it that he lacks power,  is being too safe making it easier for keepers or just facing better keepers? Other than the on target efforts not rippling  the onion bad his efforts and accuracy are the best we have overall our most natural finisher is  Wes - we have  to get the ball to him further up the pitch - his accuracy and finishing is the best we have over all but being in midfield only averages three shots in 2 games...

                                                      Efforts/start       % off target        % goals/on target            %goal/effort           Assists       start/goal

Holt         63 afforts in   26 starts,   2.4                   52%                        50%                           15%                  8                2.2

Martin      60 efforts on 20 starts    3.0                  38%                       10%                            7%                     2                 3.3

Jackson    33 efforts in 12 starts     2.75                45%                        22%                           12%                    1                 3.0

Hoolahan   31 in 22                       1.4                  35%                       40%                             25%                    1               2.75

 

[/quote]Chris Martin will always have the most efforts and least goals, as he is one of our few players who is willing to have a shot from range. Wes however usually gets his chances in and around the box after having worked the ball in there, see his goal against Ipswich. Also he is taking all our penalties so that increases his success rate.

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BY&G

Where did you get this data from? I''m rather interested in trying some similar stuff If I can get reliable data.

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[quote user="7rew"]BY&G Where did you get this data from? I''m rather interested in trying some similar stuff If I can get reliable data.[/quote]

 

All the data is from the Press Association, unfortunately there is very little available for the Championship. I would love to see heat maps and pass completion rates for Norwich. The only data I can find (which is free) is shots, goals, assists and appearances.

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Here we are, a table of the effectiveness of our attacking players,arranged by goal difference per minute on the pitch.#____|__Player_________|_Mins_|_For_|_Against_|_For/90__|_Against/90_|_GD/9024___|__McNamee(sub)___|_0218_|_12__|_04______|_4.95413_|_1.65138____|_3.3027521___|__Wilbraham______|_0268_|_04__|_02______|_1.34328_|_0.67164____|_0.6716412___|__Lansbury_______|_0415_|_08__|_05______|_1.73494_|_1.08434____|_0.6506009___|__Holt___________|_2338_|_45__|_29______|_1.73225_|_1.11634____|_0.6159116___|__C_Martin_______|_2008_|_36__|_25______|_1.61355_|_1.12052____|_0.4930319___|__Lappin_________|_1820_|_36__|_28______|_1.78022_|_1.38462____|_0.3956018___|__Smith__________|_1949_|_36__|_28______|_1.66239_|_1.29297____|_0.36942-------------------------------------------------------------------------------07___|__Crofts_________|_2238_|_40__|_33______|_1.60858_|_1.32708____|_0.2815015___|__Fox____________|_1333_|_26__|_22______|_1.75544_|_1.48537____|_0.2700714___|__Hoolahan_______|_2015_|_32__|_29______|_1.42928_|_1.29529____|_0.1340010___|__Jackson________|_1171_|_20__|_22______|_1.53715_|_1.69086____|_-0.1537111___|__Surman_________|_0458_|_05__|_06______|_0.98253_|_1.17904____|_-0.1965124___|__NcNamee(Start)_|_0431_|_05__|_07______|_1.04408_|_1.46172____|_-0.4176323___|__Johnson________|_0082_|_02__|_04______|_2.19512_|_4.39024____|_-2.19512

This table shows the For and Against for our major midfielders and strikers in the time they have been on the pitch this season. For/90 is the average number of goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch.  Against/90 is the same for goals conceded and GD/90 is the goal difference per 90 minutes for for this time.For the record our team average as a hole is +0.3 goals per match, so anyone (crudely) above this is having a good effect, those below aren''t.I split McNamee by start/sub for obvious reasons.

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Interesting... Maybe that''s why Hoolahan hasn''t be starting all the time.

Would be interested to see the stats for the defenders too as they have as much to do with this +/- sort of thing as the attackers

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Here you are:

##_|_Mins_|_For_|_A_|_For/90__|_LetIn/90 _|_GD/90_|__|_Player

05_|_0724_|_17_|_08_|_2.11326_|_0.99448_|_1.11878_|__|_Nelson

24_|_0649_|_17_|_11_|_2.35747_|_1.52542_|_0.83205_|__|_MacNamee

12_|_0415_|_08_|_05_|_1.73494_|_1.08434_|_0.65060_|__|_Lansbury

09_|_2338_|_45_|_29_|_1.73225_|_1.11634_|_0.61591_|__|_Holt

06_|_0358_|_05_|_03_|_1.25698_|_0.75419_|_0.50279_|__|_Whitbread

16_|_2008_|_36_|_25_|_1.61355_|_1.12052_|_0.49303_|__|_C_Martin

01_|_2430_|_46_|_35_|_1.70370_|_1.29630_|_0.40741_|__|_Ruddy

19_|_1820_|_36_|_28_|_1.78022_|_1.38462_|_0.39560_|__|_Lappin

18_|_1949_|_36_|_28_|_1.66239_|_1.29297_|_0.36942_|__|_K_Smith

03_|_1381_|_23_|_18_|_1.49891_|_1.17306_|_0.32585_|__|_Drury

22_|_2070_|_39_|_32_|_1.69565_|_1.39130_|_0.30435_|__|_Ward

02_|_2700_|_49_|_40_|_1.63333_|_1.33333_|_0.30000_|__|_R_Martin

07_|_2238_|_40_|_33_|_1.60858_|_1.32708_|_0.28150_|__|_Crofts

15_|_1333_|_26_|_22_|_1.75544_|_1.48537_|_0.27007_|__|_Fox

14_|_2015_|_32_|_29_|_1.42928_|_1.29529_|_0.13400_|__|_Hoolahan

20_|_1980_|_32_|_30_|_1.45455_|_1.36364_|_0.09091_|__|_Barnett

10_|_1171_|_20_|_22_|_1.53715_|_1.69086_|_-0.15371_|__|_Jackson

11_|_0458_|_05_|_06_|_0.98253_|_1.17904_|_-0.19651_|__|_Surman

26_|_0449_|_06_|_07_|_1.20267_|_1.40312_|_-0.20045_|__|_S_Smith

__________________________________________________________

SU_|_218_|_12_|_04_|_4.95413_|_1.65138_|_3.30275_|__|_MacNamee

ST_|_431_|_05_|_07_|_1.04408_|_1.46172_|_-0.41763_|__|_MacNamee

__________________________________________________________

21_|_268_|_04_|_02_|_1.34328_|_0.67164_|_0.67164_|__|_Wilbraham

25_|_007_|_00_|_00_|_0.00000_|_0.00000_|_0.00000_|__|_Daley

30_|_045_|_01_|_01_|_2.00000_|_2.00000_|_0.00000_|__|_Tudor Jones

33_|_267_|_06_|_07_|_2.02247_|_2.35955_|_-0.33708_|__|_Berthel Askou

04_|_145_|_03_|_04_|_1.86207_|_2.48276_|_-0.62069_|__|_Gill

13_|_270_|_03_|_05_|_1.00000_|_1.66667_|_-0.66667_|__|_Rudd

28_|_090_|_01_|_03_|_1.00000_|_3.00000_|_-2.00000_|__|_Francomb

23_|_082_|_02_|_04_|_2.19512_|_4.39024_|_-2.19512_|__|_Johnson

08_|_022_|_01_|_02_|_4.09091_|_8.18182_|_-4.09091_|__|_Hughes

The first table shows those players to have played more than 3 complete matches. The second breaks down MacNamee''s performance by starter or sub, and shows how much better he is as a SUbstitute than a STarter.

The last table shows those with 270 minutes on the pitch or less, these figures are least accurate of course.

Other notes: Minutes played does not count added time at this moment, as I had to get all the data manually.

R_Martin has played every minute of league and cup, so measures overall performance.

On a more subjective level:

Well done to Nelson, our most effective player.

Barnett is surprisingly low, as are Hoolahan and Surman.

C_Martin does deserve his place, despite his lack of goals.

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Such a stark difference with McNamee - just backs up what we have all seen from him.  Effective as what theteam have done with them on the pitch - but not necessarily the comptetion or opposition - good stuff -thanks &rew

With the mins stuff taking assists, goals and on target efforts the table below just shows how misleading stats can be - no appreciable difference in performance between strikers when it comes to truly threatening the opposition goal - with wes looking less influential.   MacNamee does pale in comparison

 

 Minsgoals/90on target/90assists/90 Total per game
Martin20080.181.520.09 1.79
Holt23380.381.080.31 1.77
Jackson11710.311.310.08 1.69
Hoolahan20150.360.890.04 1.29
McNamee6490.000.550.00 0.55

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I see a problem here: I can name 3 goals from the top of my head for which Martin should have assists. Holt''s third against Ipswich, Hoolahan against Ipswich and R_Martin against QPR. Your list gives him 2.

Not sure what counts as an assist. Its because I don''t really trust that sort of thing that I prefer to measure how well the team does with them present. There are two other reasons for this preference, starting with that we want to build a winning team, and that this method also measures the players performance of their assigned role.

I am trying to devise a way of weighting for how good the opposition were, and also to look at other areas of the team that can be looked at: partnerships and splitting Lappin by Left Back/Midfield.

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