The Magic Number

[YankeeCanary 0]

To overcome the promotion place Norwich holds one can see how extremely difficult things must look to our opponents simply by using the "magic number" approach. If one makes that magic number 3 points, for example, then what is the impact of any number of points achieved by Norwich or lost by our opponents adding up to three. That''s one Norwich win or one Charlton loss. It virtually eliminates Charlton who will never make up the goal difference over five games. The magic number for Swindon is 5 points ( same conclusion on goal difference challenge they face ). Swindon, of course, has to go to Millwall. One Norwich win and one Swindon loss and it''s over for Swindon ( in terms of replacing Norwich as a promotion team ). If I were a betting person I would say I would want astronomical odds that either Swindon or Charlton could take our promotion spot.

So that leaves Leeds ( ha ha ). Their goal difference is a little closer to that of Norwich so I will use the magic number of  7 points for Leeds. I think Leeds can achieve a good portion of that 7 points all on their own. They are not going to have easy games away at Carlisle or Gillingham ( who are trying to avoid relegation ). Then MK Dons should give them a good hacking before Leeds have to go to Charlton, and then face Bristol Rovers. So, if Leeds manage to screw up and drop 7 points then Norwich would not need to get another single point. But let''s be generous and say Leeds only drop 4 points. That would mean a single Norwich win guarantees us promotion.

Now I know there''s a lot of nervous Nellies within our fans at the moment and, it''s true, in football anything can happen. However, when you look at the above through THE EYES of our opponents things look pretty good for us, don''t you agree?

 

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Spot on YC, couldn''t have put it better myself[Y]

[city till i die 0]

are you a baseball fan??

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="city till i die"]are you a baseball fan??[/quote]

Yes, and a fan of all sports CTID, but the "magic number" process puts things in perspective quite well, don''t you agree?

[city till i die 0]

100% agree buddy,

i have been following baseball for a few years now, it took me a while to understand what the magic number was all about, but i get it now!!

its just a simple way to sort it all out

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

A nice variation on a common theme, Yankee.

I think this league is closer than people imagine. There is a significant gap between the best clubs and the rest so the best have all taken a large share of the points hence it is so tight at the top.

I can see Norwich being reeled in a bit but we are playing okay - especially in defence.

I''d love a win at Orient as that takes us right to the cusp and allows us to go to Charlton and rule them out by denying them a win and points.

Shame we didn''t get the win yesterday because three points for us will be massive with so few games left. I was surprised by Swindon''s loss though and I hope to be pleasantly surprised by the results of others on Tuesday.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]A nice variation on a common theme, Yankee. I think this league is closer than people imagine. There is a significant gap between the best clubs and the rest so the best have all taken a large share of the points hence it is so tight at the top. I can see Norwich being reeled in a bit but we are playing okay - especially in defence. I''d love a win at Orient as that takes us right to the cusp and allows us to go to Charlton and rule them out by denying them a win and points. Shame we didn''t get the win yesterday because three points for us will be massive with so few games left. I was surprised by Swindon''s loss though and I hope to be pleasantly surprised by the results of others on Tuesday.[/quote]

I think, with respect Rudolph, that you have appreciated the variation but missed the essence. If we win at Orient that will virtually rule Charlton out.

[Trent Canary 0]

A good variation, as mentioned its used in some (If not all?) of the major US sports. Its a bit tougher to apply here, In the likes of Baseball or basketball its an easy figure to work out as they only work on wins and losses. But either way its some interesting analysis, and shows that we are very close.[Y]

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,097]

Bloody hell, this is all a bit too complicated for a Sunday??

[Heresyourfathersgun 0]

Its easy to forget that 23 other teams all wish they had our points total, and four of them are more worried than each other than us. All we have to do is sit back and watch them scrap it out. Extremely ordinary form over the next 5 games will see us through.

[pete 244]

YC are you first wizard replying constantly to your original post?

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="pete"]YC are you first wizard replying constantly to your original post?[/quote]

Don''t think so Pete but perhaps you can analyze it and see if you come up with a different answer. I answered a question from CTID, pointed out an oversight by Rudolph and, now, I''m answering the ( the quite pointless ) question you are asking. [;)]

[YankeeCanary 0]

By the way Pete, I was very careful not to ask myself any questions in my original post so that I would not have to respond to myself. [:D]  

[Largey 0]

I thought I was pretty good at Maths, but you''ve lost me completely! It is Sunday night though.

[ca 1]

I''ll be happy if we can conjure up a couple of magic wins in the next two games never mind your magic numbers [:)]

[city till i die 0]

What''s the Magic Number in baseball? It''s simply the number of games

that the team leading a division

needs to win to ensure winning the division. If you''re leading the

division with ten games remaining

and your Magic Number is three, you only need to win three of those ten

games to ensure winning the

division. Each time you win, your Magic Number goes down by one. Each

time your nearest divisional

competitor loses, your Magic Number also goes down by one. When your

Magic Number hits zero, you''ve

clinched the division.

You calculate your Magic Number by looking at the number of games

remaining in the season and assuming

that your nearest competitor will win all of their remaining games. Then

you see how many games you still

need to win to ensure the division title even with your nearest

competitor winning all their remaining games.

Since the mighty Minnesota Twins are still atop the AL Central, I

thought I''d start tracking their Magic Number.

So I searched around on the web and found two different methods of

calculation.

One method, endorsed by Major League Baseball is to take the number

of games remaining for the division leaders,

add 1, then subtract the difference in the number of losses between the

leaders and the second place team.

In other words:

M = G₁ + 1 - ( L₂ - L₁ )

Another method, which I read on the web here,

starts with the number of games remaining for the second place team,

again adds 1, then subtracts the difference in the wins between first

and second place. Or:

M = G₂ + 1 - ( W₁ - W₂ )

So, is either formula better than the other, or are they equivalent?

And how am I just supposed to know how

many games these teams have left to play? Well, we can replace the

number of remaining games by the total

number of games in the regular season (162) minus the number of games

played so far, which is just wins plus losses.

For the Major League formula, this becomes:

M = ( 162 - ( W₁ + L₁ ) ) + 1 - ( L₂ - L₁

)

Which expands to:

M = 162 - W₁ - L₁ + 1 - L₂ + L₁

The L₁ cancels out, and the 162 and 1 combine, to leave:

M = 163 - W₁ - L₂

For the second method, we get:

M = ( 162 - ( W₂ + L₂ ) + 1 - ( W₁ - W₂

)

Which expands to:

M = 162 - W₂ - L₂ + 1 - W₁ + W₂

In this case, the W₂ cancels out. The 162 and 1 still

combine, leaving us with:

M = 163 - L₂ - W₁

Which is exactly what we ended up with using the Major League

formula.

In closing, the Magic Number for a division-leading Major League

Baseball team is simply 163 minus the

number of wins the first place team has, then minus the number of losses

the second place team has:

M = 163 - W₁ - L₂

[YankeeCanary 0]

Aspirins anyone? [:D]

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Yankee, I mean''t by drawing at Charlton we would be ruling them out of the promotion race, not the race with ourselves alone.

[YankeeCanary 0]

Ah! Thanks Rudolph.

[Largey 0]

I''ll stick to us neading two more victories :)

[ca 1]

[quote user="Largey"]I''ll stick to us neading two more victories :)[/quote]

 

So will I [:D]

[YankeeCanary 0]

Don''t worry about Swindon tying it up against Exeter. Magic number for them now reduced from 6 points to 4 points. They are falling like tenpins. Draws are fine for Norwich but a draw for anyone else is a penalty.

[YankeeCanary 0]

My mistake. Meant to say magic number for Swindon now reduced from 5 points to 3 points. Without us lifting a finger. Wonderful.