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ricardo

7 More Points and Promotion is CERTAIN!!!!!

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Yes thats right CERTAIN.If they win all their games then Millwall can get 93 and Swindon can get 94BUT they have to play each other so its either 94-90, 91-93 or 92-90Leeds and Charlton can only get 92BUT they play each other so its 92-89 89-92 or 90-907 more points takes us to 92 and with our virtually unassailable goal difference that will be enough to do the job.I don''t expect anyone will win all their games so it could be over long before the final matches are played.2 wins and a draw anybody????????

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The last figure on the Swindon Millwall line should read 92-91 (thats assuming a draw) but makes no difference to the premise.92 points will be enough

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It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.

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"7 more points takes us to 92 and with our virtually unassailable goal difference that will be enough to do the job."The only problem with that logic is if the likes of Millwall and Leeds were to get level on points with us our goal difference advantage would probably be wiped out in the process.But for all intents and purposes 7 points and we are there. (Frankly I think 5 would do the job)

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This has already been covered a few times you old plagiarist you !

Better still is our ability to be promoted at Orient.

Ignore Swindon. Millwall*, Leeds and Charlton need to draw one of their next two games and if we win both of ours we are up.

If Swindon lose one then even more so.

Up, young laddie

rev up the open top bus

* presumes they don''t overhaul a 20 goal difference

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[quote user="lmc"]It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.[/quote]with no team closer than 10 behind and Swindon (the most likely challenger) 20 behind I think its as near a certainty as certainties get.Nobody is going to do us on goal difference mate.

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Well I hope we take the title and achieve promotion against Gillingham - being that I can''t get a ticket for Charlton.

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[quote user="cityangel"]

Yes,7 pts will be enough so where do you think we''ll get them, these are my thoughts and I''m trying not to be too over confident bearing in mind we''re so close and a touch nrevy





Bristol Rovers v Norwich, wont matter


Norwich v Carlisle, wont matter
[/quote]I don''t see anybody winning them all and certainly not 2 teams winning them all so in all probability even 3 points will be enough for promotion.Certainly 94 will now bring us the title and with MKD, Gills and Carlisle at home and Orient, Bris rovs away I think Charlton becomes irrelevant.9 points from 6 games????? must be very short odds indeed.

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="lmc"]It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.[/quote]with no team closer than 10 behind and Swindon (the most likely challenger) 20 behind I think its as near a certainty as certainties get.Nobody is going to do us on goal difference mate.[/quote]Sorry but thats not the case. As mentioned it wont come to this, but in the unlikely event that goal difference matters (Ie Millwall are level with us) that would mean Millwall picking up ten more points than us. This would mean 3 extra defeats for us (Therefore at least -3 GD), and 3 wins for Millwall (At least +3 GD) Given each team wont merely win or lose by the odd goal it would mean the GD''s ending up being very close.So in that sense yes it is feasible, indeed likely in the former case, for Millwall or Leeds to beat our goal difference in the event that goal difference is relevant. As it happens it wont be relevant as they wont get near our points total.

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[quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="lmc"]It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.[/quote]with no team closer than 10 behind and Swindon (the most likely challenger) 20 behind I think its as near a certainty as certainties get.Nobody is going to do us on goal difference mate.[/quote]Sorry but thats not the case. As mentioned it wont come to this, but in the unlikely event that goal difference matters (Ie Millwall are level with us) that would mean Millwall picking up ten more points than us. This would mean 3 extra defeats for us (Therefore at least -3 GD), and 3 wins for Millwall (At least +3 GD) Given each team wont merely win or lose by the odd goal it would mean the GD''s ending up being very close.So in that sense yes it is feasible, indeed likely in the former case, for Millwall or Leeds to beat our goal difference in the event that goal difference is relevant. As it happens it wont be relevant as they wont get near our points total.

[/quote]I repeat, nobody is going to do us on goal difference.Any bets offerred????

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[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="lmc"]It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.[/quote]with no team closer than 10 behind and Swindon (the most likely challenger) 20 behind I think its as near a certainty as certainties get.Nobody is going to do us on goal difference mate.[/quote]Sorry but thats not the case. As mentioned it wont come to this, but in the unlikely event that goal difference matters (Ie Millwall are level with us) that would mean Millwall picking up ten more points than us. This would mean 3 extra defeats for us (Therefore at least -3 GD), and 3 wins for Millwall (At least +3 GD) Given each team wont merely win or lose by the odd goal it would mean the GD''s ending up being very close.So in that sense yes it is feasible, indeed likely in the former case, for Millwall or Leeds to beat our goal difference in the event that goal difference is relevant. As it happens it wont be relevant as they wont get near our points total.

[/quote]I repeat, nobody is going to do us on goal difference.Any bets offerred????

[/quote]Ive clearly said I dont think it will be the case. Just responding to your thread title and your use of the word ''Certain''. Also seeing as though you went into great detail with the points breakdowns of the other teams I thought id offer an extra part showing how 7 points is not certain by any means.If Millwall end up level on points with us then I would more than happily bet that they end up with a better GD than us, catching a team by ten points would probably equal a ten GD swing. However they wont end up level, so it doesnt especially matter.

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[quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="lmc"]It''s not actually certain is it, you made the point yourself that two teams can reach 92 points and our GD is not unassailable in the eyes of mathematics, therefore we still need 8 more points to make it CERTAIN.[/quote]with no team closer than 10 behind and Swindon (the most likely challenger) 20 behind I think its as near a certainty as certainties get.Nobody is going to do us on goal difference mate.[/quote]Sorry but thats not the case. As mentioned it wont come to this, but in the unlikely event that goal difference matters (Ie Millwall are level with us) that would mean Millwall picking up ten more points than us. This would mean 3 extra defeats for us (Therefore at least -3 GD), and 3 wins for Millwall (At least +3 GD) Given each team wont merely win or lose by the odd goal it would mean the GD''s ending up being very close.So in that sense yes it is feasible, indeed likely in the former case, for Millwall or Leeds to beat our goal difference in the event that goal difference is relevant. As it happens it wont be relevant as they wont get near our points total.

[/quote]I repeat, nobody is going to do us on goal difference.Any bets offerred????

[/quote]Ive clearly said I dont think it will be the case. Just responding to your thread title and your use of the word ''Certain''. Also seeing as though you went into great detail with the points breakdowns of the other teams I thought id offer an extra part showing how 7 points is not certain by any means.If Millwall end up level on points with us then I would more than happily bet that they end up with a better GD than us, catching a team by ten points would probably equal a ten GD swing. However they wont end up level, so it doesnt especially matter. [/quote]I shall allow you to glory in the glow of your Pedantry and bow to the fact that whilst all things are possible 99% of them remain unlikely and 7 points will be more than enough and only one team will get 90 points plus and that team will be us.However in many parrallel Universes Gordon Brown remains PM and Snowy the cat turns out to be merely a foolish know nothing Moggy. But that aint our Universe Trenty boy..

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No need to be so patronising, im a friendly poster. I can only apologise if for whatever reason ive touched a nerve.Of course I realise 7 points is more than enough, as ive stated on several occasions.You were the one who provided in-depth analysis of what we may need  in your opening post, I just added to it! By the looks of this thread we are both as pedantic as each other. The reality, as im sure your well aware is that promotion is a case of when not if. If promotion isnt the result then our petty arguement over points totals will be the least of our worries.

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[quote user="Trent Canary"]No need to be so patronising, im a friendly poster. I can only apologise if for whatever reason ive touched a nerve.Of course I realise 7 points is more than enough, as ive stated on several occasions.You were the one who provided in-depth analysis of what we may need  in your opening post, I just added to it! By the looks of this thread we are both as pedantic as each other. The reality, as im sure your well aware is that promotion is a case of when not if. If promotion isnt the result then our petty arguement over points totals will be the least of our worries.[/quote]No raw nerve Trenty.Whilst I acknowledge anything is possible, I''ve seen enough of these promotion seasons to realise that while we fear our opponents will win every match left to play they in fact never do. Thats why I remain confident that none of the others will break 90 points. I may prove to be wrong but experience teaches me that they will all drop points somewhere along the line.Relax and have a nice pint or a dram of the heavenly nectar. We will celebrating the open top bus ride soon enough.

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Agreed, I tend to be guarded but for me promotion is pretty assured, with the title just a few points away. Infact just like in 2004 ive been surprised at our consistency and ability to deal with the pressure and never look under any serious threat of throwing away the lead in the table. As you say the scenario you talked about in your opening post (And my following ones) is so unlikely I cant see how anyone can be sleeping uneasy tonight.Im on local Greek wine tonight in celebration, I trust you will enjoy your Peronis, its gone midnight here so ill bid you a good evening [|-)] Hopefully by the time im back in Snorefolk we will be right on the cusp of promotion!

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[quote user="ricardo"]

Whilst I acknowledge anything is possible, I''ve seen enough of these promotion seasons to realise that while we fear our opponents will win every match left to play they in fact never do.
[/quote]

 

I can''t see Swindon and Millwall losing any of their remaining games other than when they play each other. Not so sure about Leeds [:)]

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Not sure of Ricardo''s definition of certain, certainly different to mine. So I will avoid that word and say I am sure that 5 points would see us promoted. Better to get those points before the Bristol game to prevent any avoidable pressure.

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The OP definition of CERTAIN is different to everyone elses but hey ho..he doesnt like it being pointed out

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[quote user="cityangel"]

[quote user="ricardo"]Whilst I acknowledge anything is possible, I''ve seen enough of these promotion seasons to realise that while we fear our opponents will win every match left to play they in fact never do. [/quote]

I can''t see Swindon and Millwall losing any of their remaining games other than when they play each other. Not so sure about Leeds [:)]

[/quote]I think Swindon will do well to get more than a point from Colchester, to be honest looking at their team im surprised they have kept up their form. I had expected them to fade and struggle for a playoff place. Id also think Millwall away at Huddersfield should lead to Millwall dropping points. I just ran a BBC predictor and ended up with: -Norwich 98Millwall 89Swindon 89Leeds 88Charlton 83Ive got Millwall beating Swindon on the final day to secure promotion. Either way its going to be one hell of a final day! Lets just hope we can enjoy it from a comfortable distance.

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[quote user="cityangel"]

[quote user="ricardo"]

Whilst I acknowledge anything is possible, I''ve seen enough of these promotion seasons to realise that while we fear our opponents will win every match left to play they in fact never do.
[/quote]

 

I can''t see Swindon and Millwall losing any of their remaining games other than when they play each other. Not so sure about Leeds [:)]

[/quote]

 

You never know. Its about time Colchester won a game against someone. Maybe it will be Swindon on Saturday

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[quote user="Trent Canary"]I think Swindon will do well to get more than a point from Colchester, to be honest looking at their team im surprised they have kept up their form. I had expected them to fade and struggle for a playoff place. Id also think Millwall away at Huddersfield should lead to Millwall dropping points. I just ran a BBC predictor and ended up with: -Norwich 98Millwall 89Swindon 89Leeds 88Charlton 83Ive got Millwall beating Swindon on the final day to secure promotion. Either way its going to be one hell of a final day! Lets just hope we can enjoy it from a comfortable distance.[/quote]

I seriously disagree on Swindon at Col Ewe, given the way col ewe are going they will find it tough to hang on to seventh.

I agree on Swindon v Millwall deciding second.

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Clearly what I am about to do is optimistic and takes no account of recent form before anyone jumps on me. However Millwall have amassed 75 points from 40 games. An average of 1.875 per game. Over a 46 game season that works out at 86.25 points. As that tally is obviously stupid, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and round it up so they will finish with 87. Our current total of 85 would suggest that even one more win might actually be enough.

Given the fact they have to play Swindon at home and Huddersfield away (whose home record is fantastic despite us winning there) that prediction might not actually be a million miles away. As we have also seen to our cost this season Yeovil (a) and Tranmere (a) are not exactly gimmees either....

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Over the next few games I''ve gone for the following:

Norwich v MK Dons   Draw
Col Who v Swindon   Draw

Leyton O v Norwich   Draw
Swindon v Exeter      Home Win

Charlton v Norwich   Home Win
Swindon v Walsall   Home Win

Norwich v Gillingham   Home Win
Wycombe v Swindon   Away Win

Bristol R v Norwich   Draw
Swindon v Brentford   Home Win

Which gives us the following going into the final game:

Norwich   P45   Pts 91
Swindon   P45   Pts 89

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[quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="cityangel"]

I can''t see Swindon and Millwall losing any of their remaining games other than when they play each other. Not so sure about Leeds [:)]

[/quote]

I think Swindon will do well to get more than a point from Colchester, to be honest looking at their team im surprised they have kept up their form. [/quote]

Have you seen any of the highlights of Cochester''s games lately? [:)] Swindon will beat them easily looking at both team''s current form.

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[quote user="cityangel"][quote user="Trent Canary"][quote user="cityangel"]

I can''t see Swindon and Millwall losing any of their remaining games other than when they play each other. Not so sure about Leeds [:)]

[/quote]I think Swindon will do well to get more than a point from Colchester, to be honest looking at their team im surprised they have kept up their form. [/quote]

Have you seen any of the highlights of Cochester''s games lately? [:)] Swindon will beat them easily looking at both team''s current form.

[/quote]Just like we were going to beat Tranmere?Funny things happen at this time of the season.  Nothing can be taken for granted.

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