They Think It's All Over!

[Bill 1,788]

Away with you CT !

Win on saturday and a win at Orient, if the three below Swindon each draw one of their two games then we are up !! The atmosphere at Orient will be awesome if we are winning and need a draw elsewhere. Then to the Valley to bury a day of extreme hurt by lifting the trophy (if no ones looking).

I took 1-10 at £500 just before Huddersfield away and have £20 at 30 - 1 on promo at Orient and title at Charlton.

If the later comes up I shall book at table at Delia''s gaff, tuck in my napkin, slap her arse, and "cry gives us your memo luv and let''s be havin you"

Otherwise it''ll be chips on the market before the game as it always has been.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

I can understand fans being cautious. It''s all about getting over that line now and performances don''t matter, only results. I''m a bit of a worrier but I calm myself down with this thought: -

The first six games of the season was probably our worst run and we only picked up 8 points from them. A repeat of that (including the scores) in the last 6 games would give us 93 points and a goal difference of +37. That would be enough to ensure promotion and unless Millwall or Swindon won all their remaining games it would be enough for the championship.

[/quote]

Nutty, as Ricardo pointed out so well on his thread, it is not possible for Swindon and Millwall ( or Leeds and Charlton for that matter ) to win all their games. As greenTshirt points out, the Betfair odds puts the whole matter in perspective. If we could get odds like that on the Free Bet thread then Norwich City would have no more debt problems. 

[/quote]

Correction: What I should have said is that if the odds as low for "dead certs" on the Free Bet thread that so many are successful with then we would not have made much more than a tenner to date. 

[nutty nigel 7,533]

I''m not with you Yankee. I think you''re preaching to the converted! My point is that if we only match our worst six game run of the season we will definitely be promoted and unless Swindon or Millwall won all their remaining games, which is extremely unlikely, we will be Champions. Eight more points would give us 93. Only Swindon or Millwall can get that many but not both of them.

Back in January I posted to Smudger that we''d get 100 pointsa and score 100 goals. We''d now need to win five and score 3 goals a game for me to be right but I believe there''s more chance of that happening than us NOT  being League One Champions.

 

[YankeeCanary 0]

Not preaching at all Nutty. I was simply pointing out that your point in your previous post ( which you repeated in the last post ) that"even if Swindon and Millwall won all of their remaining games" is not possible as they still have to play each other. That was Ricardo''s point in his thread. Ergo, why I quoted the greenTshirt comment on Betfair odds on this thread. We don''t see odds that low on the "dead certs" we depend upon on the Free Bet thread. That was my point.   

[nutty nigel 7,533]

Yankee my friend - read them again. You even made them a pretty shade of red[;)]

 

[YankeeCanary 0]

Nutty, you''re quite right  however, with respect, I suspect your your style of writing may occasionally contribute  to misunderstandings. This is the second time you have said to me "read it again", in a nice way of course. On the previous occasion I let it pass but what you had to say then could have been taken in different ways. On this occasion your statement would leave no doubt in the readers mind if you had said "unless either Millwall or Swindon won all their remaining games." 

[Mazy Run 0]

[quote user="thumb180"]For me we will achieve promotion and the title its not going to be easy as for me we have hit abit of a stale period but we are still getting the results altho some games it helps if u are playing 11 v11  not 12 v 10 ie tranmere but all the teams we have left are beatable some say bristol  will cause problems yes they probally will but if we play as we were earlier in the campaign we will roll em over like we did at carrow rd and anyone else we play and just remember the table reads 8 points needed but that is a WORST case scenerio   and like others have said cant see anyone winning all there games !!![/quote]

 

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Have a few of these on me, Thumb - it will make your post a lot easier to read.

 

[thumb180 0]

[quote user="Mazy Run"]

[quote user="thumb180"]For me we will achieve promotion and the title its not going to be easy as for me we have hit abit of a stale period but we are still getting the results altho some games it helps if u are playing 11 v11  not 12 v 10 ie tranmere but all the teams we have left are beatable some say bristol  will cause problems yes they probally will but if we play as we were earlier in the campaign we will roll em over like we did at carrow rd and anyone else we play and just remember the table reads 8 points needed but that is a WORST case scenerio   and like others have said cant see anyone winning all there games !!![/quote]

 

,,,,,,,  ........ ''''''''''''''''

Have a few of these on me, Thumb - it will make your post a lot easier to read.

 

[/quote]  Ok mazy thanks, u are right i will try harder.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

It''s nice to see a bit of realism has finally crept in.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Threads have a tendancy to lose their thread and so I will go back to my original points:

Some time ago I firmly believed 89 points would be enough for promotion and 91 to be Champions.

But, I now think I underestimated the opposition and the number of opponents.

Leeds are not done yet and along with the others have some very winnable games particularly with the competition they are all creating for themselves.

In particular, Swindon look very capable of 92 points. In other words, to be Champions Norwich can only afford to drop 10 points out of 18.

Does this seem unlikely? It is a thin margin. Had Stockport sneaked a late equaliser today we would have gone into the MK Dons game feeling the pressure. If we play like we did today against them we are beatable.

We never win bugger all in South London, and cannot rely on anything at Bristol. Clubs like Orient are fighting for their lives and it is these teams who the rest are currently finding a task.

Teams in the lead have a tough task in playing to expectations and can make life difficult for themselves. It is like an 800m or 1500m race where the athlete on the shoulder of the leading runner often has the edge. That is why, for me, today''s win was a very good win because of the circumstances.

Those circumstances include the slog at Tranmere and little time to work on a system with so many player changes.

In recent weeks it has been consistent Norwich versus inconsistent opposition. Now, I believe two or three of the opposition are about to get consistent.

Today was a good example. The top five all won so the game reduction mattered more than points because none were dropped.

Colchester could have changed this and could yet do so in other upcoming games but they look like blowing up and taking points off none of their and our rivals.

The games on Saturday look similarly poised and Swindon have the chance to pressurise us ahead of the Orient game by winning on the Monday.

Momentum is everything and we must avoid losing ours. The posts about the support are really about the psychology of maintaining momentum: ''don''t lose your bottle!''

It appears some of our young players are tiring and others may be carrying injuries. We are now seeing the importance of the squad. Other sides may or may not have similar problems.

If we can beat MK Dons and Orient we will go into the last four games with our current lead intact. If we drop four points, for example, we will feel real pressure. We cannot win both of these until we win the first and so, like today, the next game is vital.

We need to win half of our remaining games and we need to win them sooner rather than later because that is momentum.

I thought it was all a done deal, it isn''t, it will be closer than we think and all those late wins we enjoyed will take on huge significance in the final analysis. That in itself will go to prove just how difficult this or any promotion is and what a fantastic acheivement it will be.

We are on the the threshold of a tremendous event. Some will say ''it''s only League One'' and that is nonsense because to win, win and win again takes real mettle and for us to do it on the bounce will probably save a fire sale of some of our best talent (like Korey Smith).

It isn''t over, it isn''t acheived. But don''t count on games down the line, we must win on Saturday as if it were the final game.

The team had a right good go at MKD and on another day would have been comfortable winners. In some ways it was the best attacking performance for some time.

A draw would have been a problem but fortunately Col U woke up to beat Swindon and Southampton beat Charlton.

If Norwich can go to Leyton Orient and win they will have 89 points and will leave the rest unable to do anything but win every game. I expect Millwall to drop points at Huddersfield and Leeds at Carlisle.

It will then be in out hands to kill off Charlton and a draw there would do very nicely as it deprives them of two points.

I do expect things are going to get close, though. This is a competetive league, just look at the top 6. These are all significant football clubs with Southampton just outside that number. No wonder, unlike the Chumps, it is still all up for grabs.

We had some appalling refereeing today but I didagree with criticism of the atmosphere, i thought the crowd were really supportive and loud, especially the River End who will get noisy over injustices.

Our luck will change soon, let''s hope it''s on Tuesday because a win there will put us to within 2 points of ultimate success and take pressure off ahead of a tough trip to the Norwich graveyard: South London.

[Norwich or die tryin! 0]

Yeah i got it the first time.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

This is what happens when fans and Club think it''s ''job done!''

I believe we will lose Saturday, let the opposition creep up on us and then get promoted on the strength of two nervy home games.

Only Norwich could get promoted on an anti-climax!

[LinkNR9 0]

[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]This is what happens when fans and Club think it''s ''job done!'' I believe we will lose Saturday, let the opposition creep up on us and then get promoted on the strength of two nervy home games. Only Norwich could get promoted on an anti-climax![/quote]

I think that your assessment is spot on there, Rudi!