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Rudolph Hucker

They Think It's All Over!

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Some time ago I firmly believed 89 points would be enough for promotion and 91 to be Champions.

But, I now think I underestimated the opposition and the number of opponents.

Leeds are not done yet and along with the others have some very winnable games particularly with the competition they are all creating for themselves.

In particular, Swindon look very capable of 92 points. In other words, to be Champions Norwich can only afford to drop 10 points out of 18.

Does this seem unlikely? It is a thin margin. Had Stockport sneaked a late equaliser today we would have gone into the MK Dons game feeling the pressure. If we play like we did today against them we are beatable.

We never win bugger all in South London, and cannot rely on anything at Bristol. Clubs like Orient are fighting for their lives and it is these teams who the rest are currently finding a task.

Teams in the lead have a tough task in playing to expectations and can make life difficult for themselves. It is like an 800m or 1500m race where the athlete on the shoulder of the leading runner often has the edge. That is why, for me, today''s win was a very good win because of the circumstances.

Those circumstances include the slog at Tranmere and little time to work on a system with so many player changes.

In recent weeks it has been consistent Norwich versus inconsistent opposition. Now, I believe two or three of the opposition are about to get consistent.

Today was a good example. The top five all won so the game reduction mattered more than points because none were dropped.

Colchester could have changed this and could yet do so in other upcoming games but they look like blowing up and taking points off none of their and our rivals.

The games on Saturday look similarly poised and Swindon have the chance to pressurise us ahead of the Orient game by winning on the Monday.

Momentum is everything and we must avoid losing ours. The posts about the support are really about the psychology of maintaining momentum: ''don''t lose your bottle!''

It appears some of our young players are tiring and others may be carrying injuries. We are now seeing the importance of the squad. Other sides may or may not have similar problems.

If we can beat MK Dons and Orient we will go into the last four games with our current lead intact. If we drop four points, for example, we will feel real pressure. We cannot win both of these until we win the first and so, like today, the next game is vital.

We need to win half of our remaining games and we need to win them sooner rather than later because that is momentum.

I thought it was all a done deal, it isn''t, it will be closer than we think and all those late wins we enjoyed will take on huge significance in the final analysis. That in itself will go to prove just how difficult this or any promotion is and what a fantastic acheivement it will be.

We are on the the threshold of a tremendous event. Some will say ''it''s only League One'' and that is nonsense because to win, win and win again takes real mettle and for us to do it on the bounce will probably save a fire sale of some of our best talent (like Korey Smith).

It isn''t over, it isn''t acheived. But don''t count on games down the line, we must win on Saturday as if it were the final game.

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Have a nice pint of Peroni and you''ll feel a lot better Rude Old.It''s done and dusted. Take that as gospel from me and Snowy.

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After writing this I read your similar thread, Ricardo. For me though, the difference is momentum and the importance of us getting the 7 or 8 points sooner rather than later.

What games do you think Leeds, Millwall, Charlton and Swindon stand to lose in their next four?

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I really am trying not to think about all of this, and literally taking it one game at a time.

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[quote user="morty"]I really am trying not to think about all of this, and literally taking it one game at a time.[/quote]I agree.  Keep on as we are, we''ll have more wins than losses.  If its a case of getting 8 points on the board out of the 18 available, we''ll get them.  Ignore what everyone else underneath us is doing, they''re not going to catch us.  Keep calm, and carry on.  We will win this league.  Whether we do so at Orient or Charlton or Gillingham is irrelevant.

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Turn it on it''s head Rudi and ask yourself this.

If it was us 10 points behind what four games would you say the leaders were going to lose out of six games.

Would you then believ that we would win the ALL six of our remaing games.

To put into a sharper perspective it would require us (over the last six games) to perform WORSE than any recent relegated club. It would also require two teams to perform BETTER than any title winning team EVER over the next six games.

Would you think that possible if you were one of those two chasing teams ?

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City 1st. I am sure the chasing pack are all looking at second spot and because of that fighting hard. As a consequence we have a pack of teams behind us all fighting to win a mini season.

All I am saying is: I didn''t think we would need as many points as we do and our players and supporters need to keep a sense of urgency too. This is not the same thing as fear or complacency.

Our players need to win Saturday and Tuesday and go all out to do so because this will avoid pressure, doubt and loss of momentum.

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[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]After writing this I read your similar thread, Ricardo. For me though, the difference is momentum and the importance of us getting the 7 or 8 points sooner rather than later.

What games do you think Leeds, Millwall, Charlton and Swindon stand to lose in their next four?[/quote]I neither know nor care Rude Old. But then I didn''t expect Millwall to draw at home to Brentford.One thing you can bet your life on is that two teams won''t win them all and that''s all that really matters at the end of the day.Home and dry old son and whether it''s sooner or later is of little import although I would rather it be sooner.Stop bloody worrying and get ready for a good old celebration when we wrap things up in the not too distant future.

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It''s not as cut and dried as a lot of people may think. It may be one or two games until the end before we can be certain of promotion. 

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Agree with City1st. The Leeds and Charlton fans ive spoken to have accepted we are long gone, the bookies have stopped taking bets on us. Its a matter of time. If somehow we end up imploding then thats the time to panic. For now Rudolph, sleep easy, and look forward to the next game on our route to the title!

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Although a part of your opening post really hit home: -"We are on the the threshold of a tremendous event. Some will say ''it''s

only League One'' and that is nonsense because to win, win and win again

takes real mettle and for us to do it on the bounce will probably save

a fire sale of some of our best talent"The clubs been in a downward spiral for many years. Even if we limp over the line, the pretty certain fact that we are going to come out of this division at the first time attempt is huge for the club and the supporters. It will hit all the harder if Leeds stay down for the third (?) straight season.

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I don''t see why constructive analysis should be dismissed as worrying.

Lambert will be trying to tread the line between complacency and apprehension and this is what I am attempting to look at.

It is a tough ask to lead and it may well be we go on to lead by such a margin that in retrospect we were never in any danger of not succeeding. However, there is still a job to do and we are not Leeds.

I have seen plenty of late sesaon NCFC collapses, usually tied into relegation, to take anything for granted.

As I said, despite the fact it was the bottom Club, today''s was a very good result.

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"Our players need to win Saturday and Tuesday and go all out to do so 2

I wonder if that has occured to them

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Ive been apprehensive all season, as I usually am; its only been the last game or two where ive fallen into complacency. Hopefully its justified, but as you say theres still a lot of hard work to go.Just to emphasise my previous post, I randomly found this thread from the 2006 days, featuring absent friends Ralph Wright, alex_ncfc and citizen journalist foghorn, as well as NN apparently under a different name! I can only imagine the state of the forum this time last year, lets all be thankful the only things we are arguing about these days is the merits of Simon Lappin, which of our formations we should go with, and how many points we need to wrap up promotion [Y]http://www.pinkun.com/cs_pinkun/cs/forums/1/742994/ShowPost.aspx#742994

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[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"]I don''t see why constructive analysis should be dismissed as worrying.

Lambert will be trying to tread the line between complacency and apprehension and this is what I am attempting to look at.

It is a tough ask to lead and it may well be we go on to lead by such a margin that in retrospect we were never in any danger of not succeeding. However, there is still a job to do and we are not Leeds.

I have seen plenty of late sesaon NCFC collapses, usually tied into relegation, to take anything for granted.

As I said, despite the fact it was the bottom Club, today''s was a very good result.[/quote]Agree 100% Rudy. As a pessimist, I will never admit victory until we get maybe 2 more victories. If we win on Saturday and again at Orient, then and only then will I admit that we''re on the way up.I think that today''s result and performance is probably a good thing because it means that PL can remind the lads that performances must improve to get us over the line and that we mustn''t get complacent.

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I reckon Leeds could struggle, I know they''ve got Charlton away coming up, with Bristol Rovers at home, and frankly I think they could struggle against a team like Rovers who are till pushing for that 6t play off place

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[quote user="LinkNR9"]It''s not as cut and dried as a lot of people may think. It may be one or two games until the end before we can be certain of promotion. [/quote]

I agree with you that its not cut and dried yet and like Morty am taking each game as it comes. Really don''t see Swindon or Millwall losing many of their remaining games so if we beat MK Dons and then say lose at Orient and Charlton we could only be 3/4 points ahead with 3 games left to play.

I know I''m sounding nervous but I don''t takae anything for granted having experienced the highs and lows of our club over the past 30 odd years.

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The atmosphere on Saturday was dangerously muted, CA.

If fans stop taking things so much for granted and see MK Dons as a tough, must win game they will be as up for it as they were against leeds. This is what we need.

If we win the next two we will go on to win the league by a healthy margin and everyone will say it was never in doubt.

Fail to win in both games and it WILL be tight.

Saturday is massive. Let''s turn up bold and purposeful.

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[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"] If fans stop taking things so much for granted and see MK Dons as a tough, must win game they will be as up for it as they were against leeds. This is what we need. If we win the next two we will go on to win the league by a healthy margin and everyone will say it was never in doubt. Fail to win in both games and it WILL be tight. Saturday is massive. Let''s turn up bold and purposeful.[/quote]

 

Thats my thinking too Rudlolph.

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I can understand fans being cautious. It''s all about getting over that line now and performances don''t matter, only results. I''m a bit of a worrier but I calm myself down with this thought: -

The first six games of the season was probably our worst run and we only picked up 8 points from them. A repeat of that (including the scores) in the last 6 games would give us 93 points and a goal difference of +37. That would be enough to ensure promotion and unless Millwall or Swindon won all their remaining games it would be enough for the championship.

 

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For me we will achieve promotion and the title its not going to be easy as for me we have hit abit of a stale period but we are still getting the results altho some games it helps if u are playing 11 v11  not 12 v 10 ie tranmere but all the teams we have left are beatable some say bristol  will cause problems yes they probally will but if we play as we were earlier in the campaign we will roll em over like we did at carrow rd and anyone else we play and just remember the table reads 8 points needed but that is a WORST case scenerio   and like others have said cant see anyone winning all there games !!!

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Anyone with any doubts about whether we have it in the bag needs to get right over to Betfair now for a little insurance.

For £20, there''s £500 for you if we don''t win the league.

For £5, there''s a £500 for you if we don''t get promoted.

It''s that certain. It seems to be a cheap price to pay if you really have doubts. It will pay for your season ticket and pies if we don''t go up.

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[quote user="cityangel"]

[quote user="RUDOLPH HUCKER"] If fans stop taking things so much for granted and see MK Dons as a tough, must win game they will be as up for it as they were against leeds. This is what we need. If we win the next two we will go on to win the league by a healthy margin and everyone will say it was never in doubt. Fail to win in both games and it WILL be tight. Saturday is massive. Let''s turn up bold and purposeful.[/quote]

 

Thats my thinking too Rudlolph.

[/quote]

I wonder if this was a Freudian slip Angel? I do think it''s appropriate that Mr. Hucker should have lol inserted in his name somewhere. [:)]

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

I can understand fans being cautious. It''s all about getting over that line now and performances don''t matter, only results. I''m a bit of a worrier but I calm myself down with this thought: -

The first six games of the season was probably our worst run and we only picked up 8 points from them. A repeat of that (including the scores) in the last 6 games would give us 93 points and a goal difference of +37. That would be enough to ensure promotion and unless Millwall or Swindon won all their remaining games it would be enough for the championship.

[/quote]

Nutty, as Ricardo pointed out so well on his thread, it is not possible for Swindon and Millwall ( or Leeds and Charlton for that matter ) to win all their games. As greenTshirt points out, the Betfair odds puts the whole matter in perspective. If we could get odds like that on the Free Bet thread then Norwich City would have no more debt problems. 

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If you look at recent seasons there haven''t been 2 teams getting more than 90 points. That may change this year but I doubt it. I''ve always thought that 91 points would be enough for automatic promotion. Two more home wins and pick up points away to put the icing on the cake.

However, they still have to do it on the pitch rather than us on the internet!

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