Morning Pals - Why I am confident of promotion

[Glenn Foy 0]

I want to justify the title with some substance, so here it goes.

I have been thinking in a more positive light recently, and I think that we have a squad that is superior to our fellow promotion chasers (such as Swindon and Colchester), and I think that showed on Tuesday. Yes, we didn''t have our best game, but the two best players were Anthony McNamee (who has been a squad player and a constant sub, who got man of the match) and Oli Johnson (who, again, hasn''t been first choice).

To get promoted in any league, I think its absolutely crucial to have a good squad, as good as your first team is. Some players are always going to tire/have a bad run of form, and I think we have players that can come on and change games/start and have an impact. Here is my analysis:

Defence:

I think our first choice defensive line-up could be argued as:   Spillane       Doherty        Askou     Drury

Now, I think some people may argue about the choice at right-back, but I am basing this on the fact that Spillane was starting for us regularly before he got injured. Now, I''m not sure who Lambert rates more, but I think Russell Martin has been good for us at right-back. I think that at right-back we have two players that can come into the team and play against any team in the division.

At centre back, we have four players vying for a starting place in Askou, Doherty, Nelson and Whitbread. We have had a certain starter in Askou (who has been injured since last year), but when Askou has been out,  I think Nelson has come in and done a solid enough job for us; yes I am one of his biggest critics, and I think he is a League One player, but he has been a crucial part of our promotion push of late. Doherty has been playing superbly, even his doubters struggle to argue against that, and in my opinion he should be our first choice centre-back with Askou. However, Whitbread is still injured at the moment but has a good reputation, and, whilst unproven with us, a lot of fans believe he could cut it in the Championship - we will have to see, but he seems more than capable for League One when fit - and could certainly challenge for a place in the staring eleven.  

I think at left-back we have a problem when Drury is injured. I think we can scrape through with Rose at left-back, but this is where we lack cover in my opinion. I think defensively we can cope in any other position without our first choice, but the sooner we get Drury back, the better.

Defensive conclusion: I think that 3/4 of our first choice defence is currently injured, and to think that we have got so many good results since the turn of the year with a weakened defence really shows the strength of our squad defensively. With the likes of Drury, Askou, Whitbread and Spillane to come back from injury (four players that many could argue could be our first choice defensive line-up), things can only bode well for us coming into the latter end of the season, and for the big games (Huddersfield A, Swindon A, Leeds H, Charlton A).

Midfield:

First choice: Smith   Russell    Lappin   Hoolahan

I think the players above would make up the preferred diamond formation, with Russell holding and Hoolahan at attacking midfield. I think the one player that may be in doubt over starting currently is Lappin. Now, I would agree I would start McNamee instead of Lappin tomorrow, but I don''t think that people can argue he has played really well for us this season. His early season form was fantastic, and he put in a couple of MOTM performances, and really solidified the left-wing position and has been massive for us this season. Obviously, for the past couple of games he hasn''t performed to anywhere near his standards of the first half of the season, but thats why it''s crucial to have a good squad to cover him (or other midfielders that aren''t performing).

McNamee came in on Tuesday and put in a MOTM performance, so I think he can come in and cut the mustard at this level. We also have Hughes, and whilst he had a bit of a stinker on Tuesday, he was a regular starter before he was injured (away at Leeds?), and was playing really well for us - and I still believe he can come in and be more than capable at this level. Gill is also another squad player availiable to us. I am rather undecided on him because I have seen him play well and poorly for us. I prefer Hughes, but it shows we have other options in our squad availiable if we need them. I think Adeyemi started a couple of games for us early on in the season (lets not forget how young he is), and I think he can develop into a promising talent, and could give cover at this level, providing it wasn''t for more than a game or two. If we are desperate, McVeigh would be my last resort in midfield, but I seem to remember him playing away at Hartlepool and he didn''t have a bad game, but I wouldnt want to rely on him in the first team for a sustained period of time.

Midfield conclusion:

I think in midfield we have seven players that would start for most other clubs in the division, and that I feel confident can get us promotion: Russell, Smith, Lappin, Hoolahan, Hughes, McNamee and Gill (to an extent). Hoolahan, McNamee and Hughes are capable of creating, whilst the others can provide us steel, power and solidify our midfield and provide support to the defence and make us hard to beat. I think our midfield is good enough, with squad players (McNamee, Hughes) that can come in and challenge for a starting place.

Strikers:

First Choice:   Martin    Holt

I think that Martin and Holt are dead certs to start for us at the moment. This may seem harsh because of the fact that Johnson has just come on and his goals have won us the game, but I think when Martin is better suited to starting games. When he plays well, he is great at finishing, shows for the ball and can link well with the midfield and provide us with an option to score from set-pieces. Even when he plays badly, his experience wins us free-kicks, and I have also noticed he is really good at winning us corners, which may sound silly, but its a sign of a good striker when there are no other options, he often plays the ball off a defender to win a corner, which can lead to chances. Obviously Holt is our captain and probably accepted as our best striker, so it is hard to see him being dropped unless he has a woeful run of form. He offers us something in the air and has a target man presence, which none of our other strikers offer.

The squad strikers are Johnson, McDonald and Daley (in that preference order). I think that Johnson and McDonald are similar players, with similar abilities, who I believe can both come on and score goals/have an impact for us (they have both proven that several times this season). I think they are good squad players, and show that we have quality on the bench that can come on and score goals for us when needed; they have definately won us points this season. Daley is one for the future, and shouldn''t be pressured into playing regularly, perhaps a substitute appearance now and again if we are short is good for his experience, but he isn''t ready yet.

Strikers Conclusion:

I think that we have four strikers that can score us goals in the league. Whilst I think two of them are still too inexperienced to start regularly (Johnson and McDonald), they are more than capable of coming off the bench. Daley is one for the future. However, I think we do have four strikers that will continue to get us goals to secure automatic promotion.

 

Overall, after giving this analysis, I think I have convinced myself more than anything that we do have the minerals to get promoted automatically. We have at least two players in each position that can come in and do a good job for us, and still provide the quality that is sufficient for us to get auto promotion. I think this is what we have over most of our promotion rivals, and that''s the quality in our squad. Perhaps Leeds are the only other team to possess this strength in depth, but I still think we have the best overall squad in the division. I think that''s why we will maintain our push and secure automatic promotion, whereas teams like Swindon, Colchester, Chartlon, Millwall, Huddersfield, will struggle to sustain a top two promotion place challenge. They may have starting line ups that can put together promotion form, but lack the depth that we have to sustain it. In my opinion, Colchester are the biggest threat, simply because they are closest to us, and have games coming up that are very much winnable.

Thats why we will get promoted this year! (this is where Oldham go and beat us convincingly tomorrow lol...)

[Canary Man of Kent 0]

I don''t think there can be any doubt that we have the squad to get promotion. What it comes down to is our ability keep on grinding out results particularly if our bad patch continues for the next 5 games.

If we''re still in the top 2 on 1 April, I will be very confident.

 

 

[Glenn Foy 0]

No-one else confident?

[rjwc22 0]

There are still too many games to go and too many variables to inspire confidence in me.

We have seen how much players like Russell and Holt are missed when out for a few games and think a serious injury to a big player could still change everything. Despite your analysis I am not confident that we could lose Wes or Holt or Russell for the season and replace them without missing a beat.

[beardo 4]

Pretty confident, if we negotiate March pretty much unscathed (still in the top 2) then I''ll be very confident of promotion

[Chris. 0]

May i ask how the weathers doing up there Manchester_Canary ?

[Paul Lamberts Disciple 0]

[quote user="Colton"]May i ask how the weathers doing up there Manchester_Canary ?[/quote]"You want a prediction about the weather, you''re asking the wrong Phil. I''ll give you a winter prediction: It''s gonna be cold, it''s gonna be

grey, and it''s gonna last you for the rest of your life."