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Punting Canary

Devils Advocate - The Case For Administration

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Whilst I don''t have full knowledge of the the in''s and out''s of going into administration as I understand it we would obviously lose 10pts, but as I understand it we would only have to pay around 10-20% of our debt if we went into administration rather that the full £20m that is owed.  Promotion is likely to yield a £4m windfall approximately.Purely from a footballing point of view if we took the 10pt deduction we would move back to 3rd place (albeit with those in 4th and below having games in hand).  It would place us 7 points behind Charlton with them having a game in hand.  Since Lambert took over (the Wycombe game) we have averaged 2.33 points per game in comparison to Leeds 2.28, Charlton 2.08, Colchester 1.84, Swindon 1.83.  On this basis, and I know previous results do not always guarantee future success, the end of season league table would look as follows (rounded to nearest point):Leeds  105ptsCharlton  96ptsNorwich 91ptsColchester 85ptsSwindon 84ptsOn this basis it does rather beg the question if in the long term interests of the football club we would not be better to go into administration, reduce our debts by somewhere in the region of £16m+, still end up guaranteed a playoff berth, and still have a chance of getting automatic promotion should Charlton in particular stumble.  And in all likelihood assuming we can subsequently keep hold of the majority of players that we have we would more than likely go up the following year......All of this might be nonsense if I have missed out some of the fundamentals of going into Administration, but when you look at it in the longer term it does make some sense......

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[quote user="Punting Canary"]Whilst I don''t have full knowledge of the the in''s and out''s of going into administration as I understand it we would obviously lose 10pts, but as I understand it we would only have to pay around 10-20% of our debt if we went into administration rather that the full £20m that is owed.  Promotion is likely to yield a £4m windfall approximately.Purely from a footballing point of view if we took the 10pt deduction we would move back to 3rd place (albeit with those in 4th and below having games in hand).  It would place us 7 points behind Charlton with them having a game in hand.  Since Lambert took over (the Wycombe game) we have averaged 2.33 points per game in comparison to Leeds 2.28, Charlton 2.08, Colchester 1.84, Swindon 1.83.  On this basis, and I know previous results do not always guarantee future success, the end of season league table would look as follows (rounded to nearest point):Leeds  105ptsCharlton  96ptsNorwich 91ptsColchester 85ptsSwindon 84ptsOn this basis it does rather beg the question if in the long term interests of the football club we would not be better to go into administration, reduce our debts by somewhere in the region of £16m+, still end up guaranteed a playoff berth, and still have a chance of getting automatic promotion should Charlton in particular stumble.  And in all likelihood assuming we can subsequently keep hold of the majority of players that we have we would more than likely go up the following year......All of this might be nonsense if I have missed out some of the fundamentals of going into Administration, but when you look at it in the longer term it does make some sense......

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theres a fair chance the debts are secured on the ground! the grounds worth more then the debts, meaning we could sell to pay of the debts... the debts are manageable, man u have 700 milllion, west ham 123 million, think we need to put this into perspective!

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[quote user="morty"]Oh god, here we go again, another 50 pages of speculation and figure juggling lol.
[/quote]

 

Whoopee!

* licks lips, rubs hands together and gets fag packet and pencil out*

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[quote user="Punting Canary"]Whilst I don''t have full knowledge of the the in''s and out''s of going into administration as I understand it we would obviously lose 10pts, but as I understand it we would only have to pay around 10-20% of our debt if we went into administration rather that the full £20m that is owed.  Promotion is likely to yield a £4m windfall approximately.

Purely from a footballing point of view if we took the 10pt deduction we would move back to 3rd place (albeit with those in 4th and below having games in hand).  It would place us 7 points behind Charlton with them having a game in hand.  Since Lambert took over (the Wycombe game) we have averaged 2.33 points per game in comparison to Leeds 2.28, Charlton 2.08, Colchester 1.84, Swindon 1.83.  On this basis, and I know previous results do not always guarantee future success, the end of season league table would look as follows (rounded to nearest point):

Leeds  105pts
Charlton  96pts
Norwich 91pts
Colchester 85pts
Swindon 84pts

On this basis it does rather beg the question if in the long term interests of the football club we would not be better to go into administration, reduce our debts by somewhere in the region of £16m+, still end up guaranteed a playoff berth, and still have a chance of getting automatic promotion should Charlton in particular stumble.  And in all likelihood assuming we can subsequently keep hold of the majority of players that we have we would more than likely go up the following year......

All of this might be nonsense if I have missed out some of the fundamentals of going into Administration, but when you look at it in the longer term it does make some sense......


[/quote]

There have been various posts on the plusses and minuses of administration however in a nutshell

Going into administration means that the club is no longer viable in its current format.  Administrators are appointed to sell the club as a going concern, and to manage it in the meantime

Worst case scenario is that no suitable new buyers are found.  In such a case, the club will fold - as Kings Lynn just have.

On a day to day basis, the administrator is charged with cutting costs, maximising revenue, realising assets to pay debts and making the club appealing to a buyer.  Player sales will usually be delayed (unless there are no other assets) as administrators realise that potential buyers will prefer a potentially successful team.  Higher earners, especially those on the fringes, would go, and duplication of places would be frowned on.  So we''d probably keep Holt - short term - but lose Martin.  Likewise probably keep Smith in midfield but lose Hoolahan.  A lot of the backroom people and Lamberts assistants would go.  Eventually ALL players would be sold, with those commanding the highest price going first.  Administration would probably invalidate Forster''s loan deal and would result in him returning to Newcastle.

So players leave - and whilst in Administration you cant sign new ones.

The board would go.  OK I cant imagine too many posters shedding tears over DS and MWJ but we''d lose McNally.  That would be as big a blow as anything

On top of this, there is the 10 point deduction, the League would have to be satisfied everything was sorted before allowing the ''new'' club to start next season.  Any doubts or irregularities would result in a further points deduction, or the withholding of the ''Golden Share'' of the league (ie membership) - which is what happened to Leeds

So Administration - a good idea.  One word answer.  No.

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I started a post like this a while ago.However I think there is a better case for staving off administration and taking it next season. We would get the promotion and fight for the points to stay in the championship rather than the gamble of the play-offs.I would also think that should we not cut the mustard in the play-offs the likes of Hoolahan, Holt, Drury, Martin etc would all want to leave anyway or at the very least offers would come in that we would struggle to reject whilst in administration.However I think its highly unlikely.Personaly I would like to see the club try and clear its debts - but if it did that only to ensure we were making enough proffit to gradually buy back the ground. It may sound stupid but do we have to sell off all of the ground? If our debts are £20million and the ground is worth £34million, would it not be better advised to sell off the £20million part of the ground and keep the rest? That way at least we have held on to £14million worth of the ground so that should we want to at least start to buy it back we could do knowing that we already own a part of it, perhaps it would even reduce the £1million a year we would have to pay for the use of it? Where would we stand with the Hotel deal?

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based on the figures in the OP administration puts us in the playoffs with no guarentees of a day at wembley and promotion.. could we really survive another season of league 1 income, even after administration?

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To Tangy.1. Sort out the non matching block quotes in your posts please.2. Theres an election this summer? I heard the Chinese were holding elections, but thats a whole different matter.3. Not winding me up at all, I just find the OP''s idea so ludicrous and his prediction of how many points we will drop a game without Holt so fantastic that I presume they are for comedy.

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Morty for what its worth I have worked in the gambling industry for many years and both for spread betting and fixed odds betting companies and a single player missing for a game does have a quantifiable effect on a team.  It might not in any given game but if you were to play 100 games without Holt and 100 with him the difference would be around 0.1-0.15pts per game.  In the last few seasons in the case of Ronaldo for United, and Gerrard and Torres for Liverpool them being in the side has a far larger effect, hence no one wants to back Liverpool without Gerrard and Torres....Sporting Index will have season points quotes back up in the morning if you want to see pretty accurate predictions of how many points the League 1 teams will end up with...........and thats without administration

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[quote user="Punting Canary"]Morty for what its worth I have worked in the gambling industry for many years and both for spread betting and fixed odds betting companies and a single player missing for a game does have a quantifiable effect on a team.  It might not in any given game but if you were to play 100 games without Holt and 100 with him the difference would be around 0.1-0.15pts per game.  In the last few seasons in the case of Ronaldo for United, and Gerrard and Torres for Liverpool them being in the side has a far larger effect, hence no one wants to back Liverpool without Gerrard and Torres....Sporting Index will have season points quotes back up in the morning if you want to see pretty accurate predictions of how many points the League 1 teams will end up with...........and thats without administration [/quote]Right, so we''ll be down 0.3 to 0.45 points during his suspension.Mind if I check back with you in three games time to check on that theory lol?Oh and I thought we had established in the 95 previous threads that administration is a last resort, and isn''t quite the joyride that people think it is.

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Just to put this into perspective, you don''t ''choose'' to go into administration, it''s forced upon you due to being insolvent.

I doubt Smith and Jones would want that, as they would lose pretty much everything they had invested in the club.

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