There IS still hope. - Look at the Stats.

[GPB 0]

If we need 40 pts to stay up, we need 32 more over the remaining 25 matches. That''s 1.28 pts per game.

If we had achieved 1.28 pts per game over the whole season we would get (rounded up) 49 pts.

Last year Middlesbrough finished a respectable 11th with 48 pts. Year before Charlton finished 12th with 49 pts.

So to stay up, from here on in, we need to perform like a side that over the course of the season could finish 11th or 12th. At the moment that is Portsmouth and Man City.

Bearing in mind we have drawn with them both I can see no problems whatsoever! Easy. I''m off to renew my season ticket.

P.S. I''m ignoring the fact that West Ham went down two years ago with 42 pts.

 

[We need a Manager 0]

And just which games are we going to secure these 40 points from , there are 25 matches left 2 against Chelsea 1 more against Arsenal , and Man Utd , that leaves 21 are we going to win away from home at places like Everton , Middlesboro , Bolton ??? 40 points playing like we are at the moment we will be lucky to get 20

[Canarychick 0]

I like what you are saying Graham Paddon''s beard and I hope you are right.Thing is, 3 go down and if we did get 40 points we could still be in the bottom 3. At the moment Crystal Palace are doing ok (boo) so its really between NCFC, West Brom, Blackburn and Southampton. Four teams there, 3 go down. I don''t mean to be negative. Every match I think "yes, they can do it today"!! I will keep my fingers and everything crossed that they do stay up!!OTBC

[Tumbleweed 106]

Wins:

Home to Southampton, WBA, Fulham, Birmingham

12 points

Away to Crystal Palace, Southampton

6 points

Draws

Home to Bolton, Tottenham, Boro, Man City, Charlton

5 points

Away to Birmingham, Portsmouth, Aston Villa, Blackburn

4 points

That gives a grand total of 35 points by the end of the season. So we would need a minimum of 5 points from

Chelsea (A,H)

Boro (A)

Liverpool (H)

Everton (A)

Arsenal (A)

Man Utd (H)

Newcastle (H)

Fulham (A)

Bolton (A)

So it does look just about achievable if we can get a win on Sat, a bit of confidence and some better decision making by Nigel

[ZLF 271]

Tumbleweed once again one of your posts strikes a cord with me and putthat way 40 points is possible.

What give me even more confidence is that I dont think we will even need 40 points to survive - I am still predicting as low as 37/38 will be enough - or even a record low this season.

Come on city we can do it - just can not afford to let our heads drop again.

OTBC 

[Tumbleweed 106]

You may well be right Zipper, the way things are going at the moment there look to be 4 or 5 clubs down around the bottom with low points totals. I would be very surprised if 40 points doesn''t keep us up.

[shropshire canary 0]

What a depressing prospect eh - 4 home wins in an entire season!

Good projection and I too think 37/38 will do it - we need a surprise/shock win along the way as well though (a la Birmingham at Liverpool, Fulham at newcastle etc) and that will make all the difference

[susie b 0]

I think that''s it, shropshire canary, the prospect of only a few wins at home is very depressing, especially when compared to last season when we failed to get anything from just 8 games and had 28 - yes 28 - wins in total to celebrate.  This is one of the reasons I think we are all finding it so hard at this moment in time..not that we realists thought it would ever be easy in the Prem, just that it isn''t great not feeling that high of winning and of building confidence and belief.  Some may not like me saying this but it compounds the feelings of most fans whilst that lot down the road seem to be enjoying life so much.  Still, as I''ve said before, the mathematician in me won''t let me sink into despair until the points just don''t exist to keep us up.  Until then I''ll continue to hope (and pray!) that maybe we can do a Portsmouth, or something similar.  I do have a feeling though that 35 or 36 points may be enough to stay up this season. 

[GPB 0]

It''s now 29 from 24. That''s 1.21 (rounded up) per match ! Even better!!!!

[Tumbleweed 106]

Just remembered this from November. We are only two points down on the forecast and 35 points may now be enough, and that''s without picking up anything from those other games. So 1st Wizard et al- don''t get too gloomy just yet.

[shropshire canary 0]

Actually ahead of projection on the wins/draws bit. The only problem for us is that most of the projected wins/winnable games are in April and May - we have to still be in touch come mid April and then we have a really good chance. Come on!!

WBA and Blackburn in early Feb look key games - an ideal chance for our new super striker to become an instant herop then!!

[Northern Canary 0]

it is easier said than done. we should have beaten Fulham, Blackburn and Crystal Palace at home but we didnt. However with a striker i think we could beat anyone out of the top 6. i say could but that does not mean we will but it is possible.

[Tumbleweed 106]

I think we are a much better team than at the start of the'' season. Fulham at home was dire but they defended well. The last 4 performances give me hope that we can get the results we need. Our luck (particularly with refereees'' decisions) must change sometime.