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JuanVelasco

How the bookies rate Spillane.....

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The other day I met a bloke at a social event in Yorkshire who works for William Hill specialising in providing odds for unusual football bets, strange job I know, but they actually have these people?? I dont bet at all so I wouldnt know........ well except from the Grand National.... I believed him as it was a close knit thing, not a random drunk in a pub.....

I was a little tipsy so asked him a few random questions..... all Norwich related....

1). Odds on Gunny lasting the season......  3/2

2). Odds on McDonald Scoring 20 goals...... 3/1

3). Odds on Michael Spillane getting 10 Ireland caps 12/10.....

I questioned him on the last one, wondering if he even knew who Spillane was, and he did alright...... knew that he had been excellent for the under 21s and that he is tipped in Ireland to become a star......

I was pretty suprised but he obviously knew his stuff, and reckons that there is already somebody who will make a small fortune if he even gets 1 cap.......

Anyway, those odds on Gunn look crap.....

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As in they are good odds or bad odds?

6 players scored over 20 in League One last year........

Say 2 main strikers for each team, thats 48......

so thats 8/1 chance that any regular striker would score 20.

I would say that 3/1 is realistic seeing as Cody will be a class apart from at least half of those strikers.....

14 strikers scored 15 or more, so any regular striker (hypothetically if there were 48) would have a 3.2/1 chance of getting 15.

I would say that those odds of 3/1 represent a belief that he will do well, plus a bit of capitalisation on our status as the favourites.

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i was thinking more like 10-1 min but maybe considering were on 7-1 to win the league and we have no strikers, they have to justify them odds somehow.

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[quote user="barryevans"]i was thinking more like 10-1 min but maybe considering were on 7-1 to win the league and we have no strikers, they have to justify them odds somehow.[/quote]

Well im sure if we were to sign Alan Lee and A.N Other up front then the odds would go down, but like you said...... we have Martin who only scored 13 in league two and Cureton who wont score any more than 2.

If a striker has an actual 8/1 chance of scoring 20, based on 48 regular strikers, then are you saying that Cody is below average ability in League One by stating 10/1?

 

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[quote user="ryan85k"]

[quote user="barryevans"]i was thinking more like 10-1 min but maybe considering were on 7-1 to win the league and we have no strikers, they have to justify them odds somehow.[/quote]

Well im sure if we were to sign Alan Lee and A.N Other up front then the odds would go down, but like you said...... we have Martin who only scored 13 in league two - Martin speant almost his entire season at Luton out of position on the right wing, so he was never going to score a ton as it wasn''t his job. - and Cureton who wont score any more than 2. - Have you heard of Matt Fryatt? Ask most Leicester fans, and they''d say he had far more trouble putting the ball in the net than Jamie Cureton ever did or will have with the amount of open goals he missed in the Championship. - 

If a striker has an actual 8/1 chance of scoring 20, based on 48 regular strikers, then are you saying that Cody is below average ability in League One by stating 10/1?

 

[/quote]

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[quote user="ryan85k"]

[quote user="Larry David"]Gary Doherty has 34 caps.[/quote]

True, but then Wes Hoolohan only has 1?

[/quote]Therefore as an average defender, Micky has a great chance of winning some caps.

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[quote user="John"][quote user="ryan85k"]

[quote user="barryevans"]i was thinking more like 10-1 min but maybe considering were on 7-1 to win the league and we have no strikers, they have to justify them odds somehow.[/quote]

Well im sure if we were to sign Alan Lee and A.N Other up front then the odds would go down, but like you said...... we have Martin who only scored 13 in league two - Martin speant almost his entire season at Luton out of position on the right wing, so he was never going to score a ton as it wasn''t his job. - and Cureton who wont score any more than 2. - Have you heard of Matt Fryatt? Ask most Leicester fans, and they''d say he had far more trouble putting the ball in the net than Jamie Cureton ever did or will have with the amount of open goals he missed in the Championship. - 

If a striker has an actual 8/1 chance of scoring 20, based on 48 regular strikers, then are you saying that Cody is below average ability in League One by stating 10/1?

 

[/quote][/quote]

Chill out mate, is it passed your bedtime? or is the missus not putting out?

I know how well Martin has played for Luton this year, thanks, but I still wouldnt bet on Cureton doing f.a next year. As his most recent two seasons in League One point out.

In case you need reminding, and to save you checking out wikipedia, this was 6 goals in 43 for QPR and 7 goals in 30 for Swindon Town.

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[quote user="Larry David"][quote user="ryan85k"]

[quote user="Larry David"]Gary Doherty has 34 caps.
[/quote]

True, but then Wes Hoolohan only has 1?

[/quote]

Therefore as an average defender, Micky has a great chance of winning some caps.
[/quote]

Yeah defo, I rate him very highly, my point if anything is that Norwich fans dont seem to rate him as highly as Irish football fans or bookies. I think he would have done a sterling job for us in the season just gone.....

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