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YankeeCanary

A Simple Question

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After the games this coming Saturday, April 25th, do you feel that Norwich will have our fate back in our own hands? Obviously, for that to be the case either Notts Forest has to lose or Barnsley ( or both teams ) have to achieve no more than a tie in their match. I believe one of them will slip up and we will end up with our fate back in our own hands. Although Blackpool only needs a point they will be highly motivated to not leave themselves vulnerable in the last game of the season, having performed relatively strongly in their past  eight games since they beat Norwich 2-0. Additionally, Blackpool know Norwich do not play until Monday night and, should Norwich win, Blackpool will not want to go to Swansea for its final game knowing a loss could see them relegated. If I were the Blackpool manager I would tell my players they are in the strongest position to go out and play agressively and go for it, rather than play carefully and risk losing. Forest should have their hands full. The pundits seem to agree but call the odds almost the same for both teams. The odds are almost the same for Barnsley and Wolves, although this appears to be a much tougher game to call because you don''t know how motivated Wolves will be. Will McCarthy give some of his youngsters an outing as a reward or will he want his team to go out with a flourish the way Norwich did at Crewe in our promotion year? I believe the odds are that one of these games will go in our favour.

Let''s look at the odds on the Saturday matches that affect us:

Blackpool 6-4      Vs  Notts Forest 7-4

Barnsley  8-5       Vs  Wolves  7-4

Derby 8-13           Vs  Charlton 4-1

QPR  6-4              Vs  Plymouth 9-4

Southampton 15-8 Vs  Burnley  11-8

Coventry  5-4        Vs  Watford  2-1

Only Derby can be considered a strong favourite in a relative sense. How many of you think that our fate will be back in our own hands after Saturday''s games? Yes or no?

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I think we have been given a bit of a break having this game on Monday. About time we got a break from officials as well! Between this, and the controversial pen given to Cov in tonights game (which I have not seen, only read Davey blowing up), maybe our luck could be starting to change.

The Forrest and Plymouth games for mine look most likely to go our way, although I would''t be happy should that happen, but Southampton win, bringing them back into the equation.

I personally think the bigger issue will be getting all 3 points against Reading. But, if the results fall our way on Saturday, it could lift the boys enough to make that happen!

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So is that a "yes" or a "no" Norfolk? If the answer is yes then I think it''s reasonable to say that over two games we have a shot at it. If it''s no, I think the oddsmakers would say our chances move to extremely slim.

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The Cov penalty was on Sky Sports News last night - looked more ball to hand than the other way round to me - a bit similar to the Ashley Cole "handball" in the Chelsea - Arsenal match that ended up being a deflected goal to Arsenal last Sunday.  It was controversial because the ref had given a corner to Cov, but changed his ming after consulting with the linesman. As for "is it in our hands", yes it is.  If we win both games we won''t go down.

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Blackpool 6-4      Vs  Notts Forest 7-4

Blackpool need a draw to be mathematically safe.  Their home record is not good - 5 - 7- 10.  But then Forests'' 5-6-11 doesn''t inspire confidence either.  I''d say a draw is the most likely outcome.

Barnsley  8-5       Vs  Wolves  7-4

Wolves have been very good away from home (12-3-7).  Barnsley have a mid-table home record - 8 - 6 - 8.  People worry about Wolves'' foot slipping off the pedal, but I think Barnsley will only manage a draw at best.

Derby 8-13           Vs  Charlton 4-1

Derby should win this to make themselves safe.

QPR  6-4              Vs  Plymouth 9-4

QPR have stalled recently, and have nothing to play for, but Plymouth have the joint worse away goals scored record in the league, 13.  A draw here too for me.

Southampton 15-8 Vs  Burnley  11-8

A crucial match for Burnley who will want to close the play-off door on Swansea and Preston.  Southamptons'' home record of 4-9-9 is the worst in the league.  An away win here I think.

Coventry  5-4        Vs  Watford  2-1

Coventrys'' recent shocking form suggests that Watford will get the draw they need to become safe.

If the results fall as I reckon they should, we will be looking at this table before we kick off...

Plymouth 51

Forest 50

Barnsley 49

Norwich 46

Soton 44

If the results go as above, we could therefor lose the Reading match and still have something to chase at Charlton.  But as we all know, anything could happen...

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Norfolk&chance said:

"I think we have been given a bit of a break having this game on Monday. About time we got a break from officials as well! Between this, and the controversial pen given to Cov in tonights game (which I have not seen, only read Davey blowing up), maybe our luck could be starting to change. The Forrest and Plymouth games for mine look most likely to go our way, although I would''t be happy should that happen, but Southampton win, bringing them back into the equation. I personally think the bigger issue will be getting all 3 points against Reading. But, if the results fall our way on Saturday, it could lift the boys enough to make that happen!"

 

Personally i would have rather we all played at the same time.  I can imagine the dressing room before the Reading game if all the results went our way  "phew lads, bit of pressure off this isn''t such a big game anymore, we can win at Charlton and foget this one"........tossers (sorry thats just the way i think their brains work at times)

 

 

p.s whats wrong with the "quote" function on this ruddy site?

 

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[quote user="blahblahblah"]If the results go as above, we could therefor lose the Reading match and still have something to chase at Charlton.  But as we all know, anything could happen...[/quote]

The problem would be though, if we did indeed lose to Reading and the results came out as you suggest, Plymouth and Barnsley would then be in a situation where they would both be safe if they drew on the last day.

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In which case Graham we wouldn''t be able to complain, as we had failed to get a result against Reading, or at any other point in the previous 46 games.  Kind of proves the point that it is in our hands at the moment - If we get 4 points from these 2 matches we should be ok, winning both of them will see us safe.

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Interesting post Yankee. I live in Southampton so though that the local paper''s analysis of the relegation battle would be of interest. I would like both Norwich and Southampton (in that order !) to stay up :-

 

As things stand, all the teams still involved in the relegation battle have played the same amount of games with Saints four points behind 21st-placed Barnsley and five adrift of Nottingham Forest, who they meet in a final-day showdown on Sunday, May 3.

This Saturday sees Saints host in-form Burnley, Forest travel to Blackpool in the early kick-off (12.30pm) and Barnsley take on Wolves at Oakwell.

If Saints only manage a draw, Forest would be assured of safety and Mark Wotte’s men would need newly-promoted Wolves to hand a thrashing to Barnsley to stay in the hunt.

Then, on the Monday, Norwich host Reading and a victory in that one for the Canaries would also send Saints down.

If, somehow, Saints survive beyond Monday, victory for Saints at Forest on the final day and defeats for Norwich (at Charlton) and Barnsley (at Plymouth) could see Saints stay up on goal difference.

But that really would be the miracle Wotte spoke of after Saturday’s defeat at Sheffield Wednesday!

The only believable way of squeezing out of trouble would be for Saints to beat both Burnley and Forest.

That would see them reach the magical number of 50 points – and they could then reasonably expect two of Norwich, Barnsley and Forest to be relegated instead.

The Canaries would need an unlikely four points from their last two games to get above Saints with the other two requiring two points.

With the Forest v Saints game lurking on the horizon as a ray of hope, Mark Wotte really needs a favour off Blackpool in the televised clash on Saturday.

If not, Wolves and Plymouth could yet come to the rescue by taking at least four points out of six in their matches against Barnsley.

The Tykes’ goal last night came in the ninth minute as Maltese striker Daniel Bogdanovic struck but a dramatic equalising penalty in the 94th minute by Elliott Ward levelled things up.

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[quote user="Graham Humphrey"]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]If the results go as above, we could therefor lose the Reading match and still have something to chase at Charlton.  But as we all know, anything could happen...[/quote]

The problem would be though, if we did indeed lose to Reading and the results came out as you suggest, Plymouth and Barnsley would then be in a situation where they would both be safe if they drew on the last day.

[/quote]

Ignore this, I''m an idiot. Plymouth would be safe already.

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May I offer a simple at-a-glance table of all the possible combinations whereas we can go above one of the teams above us :-

NORWICH.POSSIBLES.BARNSLEY
WW8WX. WL.XW.XX.XL.LW.LX.LL.
WX4XXXLLXLL    
WL3XLLXLL     
XW4XXXLLXLL    
XX1LL       
LW3XLLXLL     
  FOREST
WW6WLXXXLLW.LXLL  
WX3XLLXLL     
WL1LL       
XW3XLLXLL     
LW1LL       
  PLYMOUTH
WW4XXXLLXLL    
WX1LL       
XW1LL       
  BLACKPOOL
WW1LL       
          
TOTAL44        

As can be seen there are a total of 44 result sequences that can see us safe. The two match combination for City are on the left whilst the relevant required sequences for our rivals on the right. So if  we get only two draws "XX" then we can still overtake Barnsley if they lose both games "LL".

Hope this is of help.

 

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Solid effort Jim. It reminds me of the pools forms I used to fill in many, many moons ago. My eyesight can''t handle it any more as the X''s all run together. Do you know what I mean?

Back to the thread....if we are fortunate enough to have our fate in our own hands after Saturday''s games then, looking ahead to Monday night, we have had a good run on our most recent evening games. Unbeaten in five....two draws followed most recently by three wins. Let''s call this a good omen.

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Were they called Lit Plans Yankee? Or they were with Littlewoods pools and I can remember a simple little machine where you could check them. I wonder how many people still do the pools? I stopped years ago but remember studying form for hours to help my grandad back in the 60''s. But he always told me it was just as good to draw the numbers out of a hat!

But yes, great work Gentleman Jim!

Two more stats that I put on another thread about Monday are:-

Home games against the top six -  P5 W3 D2 L0 F10 A4

Live games on Sky -   P2 W2 D0 L0 F4 A1

So add that to your night games stat and there''s three reasons to be optimistic[Y]

However, Charlton away is a different kettle of fish........

 

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I think it was the Littlewoods pools Nigel. I seem to remember they came in the mail and everyone was as eager to get their hands on them as many are lottery tickets today. Based upon my experience your grandad was correct on hat methodology, however, he did not have the benefit of the Free Bet group at hand. Speaking of which, I was going to cheekily suggest when I originally posted this thread that you legislate ( for this week only ) that the Free Bet group would have to focus their choices on the six matches I identified in this thread. Of course, you cannot do that as it would not be in keeping with the spirit of the Free Bet process. However, it would have been fun and it did cause me to think about our choices on the Free Bet thread. Is there any reason why we only focus on the win and ignore the possibility and selection of a draw? I understand the "if it ''aint broke don''t fix it" concept but just thought it''s something you may wish to think about as the widest array of choices is surely a positive not a negative. I''m sure one of our statisticians has input at hand that shows the merit of involving the draw. Perhaps Mr. Carrow? He may be looking for subject diversification.

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[quote]Is there any reason why we only focus on the win and ignore the possibility and selection of a draw? [/quote]An interesting idea Yankee - there are certainly some draw specialists in each league in England, and looking at the seasons'' stats you could probably guess that a game between a team with a low home goals scored record against a team with a low away goals scored record has a fair chance of being a draw.  That said, the main reason that pickers on the Free Bet thread have become more successful is down to your methodology of picking out the home wins / low odds games, as they are the most predictable.  In other words, mis-matches (e.g. Liverpool vs West Brom, Liverpool wins) tend to be more predictable games than close matches (e.g. Sunderland vs Middlesborough, who knows ?).

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