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nutty nigel

Is there anyone who still thinks we'll get relegated??

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Just wondered if after todays result that anyone still thinks we will get relegated. Yes I know its not over until its mathematically impossible to go down but I think we have turned the corner now.

If you''re still pessimistic then depress us all and tell us why you think we can''t win three more games?

With apologies to my friend Cityangel.

[;)]

 

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Untill Gunny was forced into dropping Fotheringham and Cureton we looked destined for the drop.Now, we''re playing better, scoring goals, keeping clean sheets........BUT.All of our stars are not ours are they? They''re loans.And unless we get money to buy quality in the transfer period before next season, we''ll be right back to a month ago all over again next season.Sure, short term things are looking positive.But long term? Different story...

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We''re gona get nothing off Birmingham, Swansea, Reading, and Ipswich. 

And then 6 points off Watford and Charlton wont be enough I don''t think.

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[quote user="Ali Dia"]

We''re gona get nothing off Birmingham, Swansea, Reading, and Ipswich. 

And then 6 points off Watford and Charlton wont be enough I don''t think.

[/quote]

Well I am going to the Birmingham game so................... We are going to win!

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I can see us getting at least another 6 points - Watford and Charlton. Sheff Weds at home is also another possible 3 points. So let''s say a conservative 7 - two wins and 1 draw which gives us 49 points. Might not be enough but then so much depends on how the others do and looking at their respective run ins it appears that there are an awful lot of games where our relegation rivals have to play each other. So they can''t all be picking up points. It''s going to go down to the Charlton match and it''ll be squeaky bum time for sure!  Remember last season when Leicester looked like they would stay up and were eventually dunked at the last moment. I hope to god that won''t be us. The players cannot be given to think that because they''ve now won a couple of games in a row and are out of the relegation places they can now relax. We''re still in the brown stuff big time and next Saturday''s results could see us back in the bottom three.  Still, what is nice is that with the changes that have been rung up front we now seem to be carrying more of a threat.  Actually, our goals for is comparable to sides in the top ten - it''s our goal against that is so darned shabby. If we can continue to keep clean sheets at the back as we have started to do then we''ll stay up IMO.

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Impossible to prodict. A team who can thrash Wolves, beat Cardiff and then lose to a hapless Blackpool are erratic to say the least. Confidence is high which is good- but one knock and the house of cards could collapse again.

We can beat Brum - as we beat Wolves and then climb up

or we could capitulate and go on another dire run

It is Norwich - who knows!! It is nerves all the way home from this point on!

 

Out of Barnsley/Soton/Us/ Plymouth/ Watford and Forest for two places! 1/3 chance of relegation.

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which ever way we look at it its going to be very very tight, we will have 1 more home slip up with either a draw or loss - so atleast 3 points on the road will be critical

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Just wondered if after todays result that anyone still thinks we will get relegated. Yes I know its not over until its mathematically impossible to go down but I think we have turned the corner now.

If you''re still pessimistic then depress us all and tell us why you think we can''t win three more games?

With apologies to my friend Cityangel.

[;)]

 

[/quote]

I''ve learned to take nothing for granted Nigel. It was not all over after the defeat at Blackpool and it is still not all over after the terrific 6 points this week.

If we can get to 49 or 50 points I think we will be o.k. but a lot depends on how the many 6 pointers between our rivals pan out. We have Barnsley v Forest and Blackpool v Southampton coming up shortly and these are followed by Watford v Southampton, Watford v Barnsley and Blackpool v Forest.

Do we want a series of draws from these games, which would keeep them all involved in the relegation issue or do we want some one way results?

Still loads of water to flow under Trowse Bridge Nigel but I would put our chances better than 50/50 now.

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Just wondered if after todays result that anyone still thinks we will get relegated. Yes I know its not over until its mathematically impossible to go down but I think we have turned the corner now.

If you''re still pessimistic then depress us all and tell us why you think we can''t win three more games?

With apologies to my friend Cityangel.

[;)]

 

[/quote]

Who says 3 more wins is going to be enough?  The league is so tight this year, I feel it is going to need more than 52 points to survive.

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We are JUST 2 points out of the zone so this unbridled optomism is a little premature.

IF we continue to battle and play as we have for the last two game then we will survive.

If we defend deep like we did for the last 10 mons, inviting the opponents onto us then we will get relegated.

If the committment drops from these last two games it will be tough.

If we get relegated it is because of attitude not ability. Do our players have the bottle?  I hope so,  will the there be many twists and turns in the next 6 weeks - and so highs and lows for us fans?  definitely.  

Squeeky bum time indeed.

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My heart says we will,  my mind does not know,   but thinks we will JUST survive..

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There are simply not enough teams in the mix this year to feel safe. There is a gap to Blackpool then the teams above have two games in hand as well as being clear. Barnsley will pick up something from their three games and we have Birmingham away coming up next.

So, in answer to the question we can very certainly still go down. Had we not picked up three wins in four games we would probably already have been down in all sense other than mathmatically. The fact that we did only means we are still in with a shout but remain one defeat away from being in trouble again.

Depressing? Realistic I suggest. Confidence is still fragile and too many players not sure if they want to stay up and stay with City or listen to their agents and jump ship when we go down. The result is that if we score first the heads are up, if we go behind (Blackpool) thoughs turn to pastures new.

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No more than 50% chance of survival but that is certainly better than we have had recently.

Its too close to call we still need a little luck to stay up and ive got my fingers crossed.

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Its the ''others'' games in hand, and our difficult away games what''ll do for us, so yes, I still think we''ll go down.

However, 9 points out of 12 is a cracking return.

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More confident(hopeful?) than i was a week ago but there is still a lot to be played for.

Gow and Mooney have a huge part to play and we need to make sure we can keep Mooney til the end of the season. Isn''t he here for just a month at the moment?

Gow and Mooney away from home could be even more vital than they are at home. A player who can keep the ball and use it well and someone who loves scoring goals to play with him? Priceless.

How long will Hoolahan be out for ? Anyone know?

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why shouldnt we get points from birmingham swansea reading and ipswich ?

we have have previously beat ipswich , drew against birmingham .

beat wolves and drew at thier haunt, and beat cardiff who are fourth .

no telling with norwich , allthough i am more hopefull now they will get a result out of at least one of them .

 

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you naughty boy nigel[:P]...its looking better than last sunday for sure - but logically - we still face an uphill battle...momentum can be lost as quickly as found - and its a huge blow to lose hooley - and with rusty out next week - changing the team around is far from ideal - now we''ve just found a winning one!!! if the boys that come in do as well - then great - but more chopping and changing doesn''t help at this stage...its anyones guess...the form of all the bottom teams - bar chalton - is so volitile - its impossible to safely predict imo...but make no mistake - we have a fighting chance now - and its down to the boys to fight tooth and anil to make sure they don''t slide back into the bottom 3...

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[quote user="singing canary"]

why shouldnt we get points from birmingham swansea reading and ipswich ?

we have have previously beat ipswich , drew against birmingham .

beat wolves and drew at thier haunt, and beat cardiff who are fourth .

no telling with norwich , allthough i am more hopefull now they will get a result out of at least one of them .

 

[/quote]

Well of course this is the point I have been making since the end of January. I believe we will get the points but I have no idea where they may come from. As Steve Coppell said last week there is nothing much between the teams in this league. And you guys who seem to think we will lose to any side in the top half so need to beat any side in the bottom half have been wrong all season. We lost at Blackpool but won at QPR, most of you thought the most we could possibly get from those two away games was 3 points so why all the despair because we got them that way round? We got 1 point out of 6 against Southampton but 4 out of 6 against Wolves. We lost at home to Coventry but beat Cardiff. Why shouldn''t we beat Reading at home?

Now I totally agree that it''s too early to call us safe just like I thought it was too early to call us relegated a couple of weeks ago. This post was only a tongue in cheek response to the thread about "Is there anyone out there who still thinks we''ll stay up??"

There''s a long way to go and 7 games is a long time in this league. 7 games ago Watford were in the bottom 3 with 30 points now they have 46. Equally 7 games ago Forest had 34 points and appeared to be upwardly mobile but with just 7 from 7 they appear to be right back in trouble again.

So the real point of my tongue in cheek post was to try and show that all the relegation negativity from the fans is not only a dark cloud on this message board[st] but also  no more realistic than my apparent unbridled optimism[H]

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Just wondered if after todays result that anyone still thinks we will get relegated. Yes I know its not over until its mathematically impossible to go down but I think we have turned the corner now.

If you''re still pessimistic then depress us all and tell us why you think we can''t win three more games?

With apologies to my friend Cityangel.

[;)]

 

[/quote]

Yes, sorry NN but I still think the odds are against us, although yesterdays'' win was absolutely huge in our bid to survive. It''s a crazy league this year, everybody is capable of beating anybody. I don''t think we can count on Blackpool to be in the bottom 3, as they keep getting unexpected results, however, they do have to play just about everybody else at the bottom, so they have the potential to do a lot of damage to others. Southampton were going great guns but now appear to be stuttering, and Forest, with Earnshaw and McSheffery go and lose 5 - 0! For me yesterday was so important as it dragged Plymouth right into it and they did not look a good side yesterday. Barnsley have so many games in hand, but, based on their recent performance at Carrow Rd, are they capable of winning any of them? We now have to go and do the unexpected, ie get a result at Birmingham or go to Ipswich and get a win. I was chuffed to bits ot hear that Walters will be out for Ipswich and then they go and get Santos on loan. We do have goal difference on our side, which could yet prove to be crucial. So, two others to join Charlton, between us, Southampton, Forest, Barnsley, Plymouth. I still think that Forest will get out of it, and Barnsley also, as basically win one of their three games in hand and they are above us again. I think Plymouth will go, and then it''s us or Southampton. We play Charlton away on the last day of the season, by which time they will already be relegated and playing with nothing to lose. I think Forest play Southampton last game also, I would like us to be safe by then and be interested bystanders as those two battle it out to avoid the drop.We need to be safe before we go to Charlton, or I fear the worst, ie Fulham all over again. If not us, then who do you think are going down NN?

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It''s not just the points on the board that are encouraging but the style of play right now. We''re looking (relatively) solid at the back and have a bit up-front now.

In general, I''m feeling optimistic for the first time since about November. But as the Lowestoft warlock says, it''s all about the other games in hand. We could be back in the bottom three before we even kick a ball.

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Last games of the season:

Charlton V Norwich

Plymouth V Barnsley

Forest V Southampton

Very interesting that all of the relegation threatened sides are playing each other on the last day of the season. But the good thing about this is if all of those sides are still in trouble, and we are out of the bottom 3 before these games are played, I''m hopeful by avoiding defeat we will survive. Our goal difference in this position will be like an extra point. In addition, lots of games in hand at this time of the season is not necessarily a benefit. It could cause more problems, as fixture congestion is going to get very very hectic for Barnsley and Southampton, especially around Easter time, which will tire their players reducing their chances.

If we can go to Birmingham and get something next weekend, I''ll be getting more optimistic. It''s fantastic we now have a mobile strikeforce who pose a threat to opposition defences. It''s clear bar Leroy Lita earlier in the season, how poor we''ve been up front all season.

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The defence is looking solid at last so that will give the team confidence to go to Brum and Swansea. Strike while the iron is hot. We are capable of getting a win at Brum and then we can all breathe more easily. We need to get the points on the board early while we are playing well so we don''t have a nerve wracking last few games when the nerves will surely get to everyone. Teams at the bottom are capable of going on little runs but lack the consistency to keep that going. Southampton, Forest slipped back again and are expending a lot of energy in our good run just now and picking up injuries and suspensions because we are actually competing. We cannot count on winning our later games even if they appear easy on paper.

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also  - firmer ground favours passing sides with pace...if the sun keeps a shining - we could do well in the run in,,,but imo - brum will have to much for us next week - precisely for this reason - but we could spring a surprise,,,escpeailly if younf cody gets a good run out - if we''re defending deep - having his pace on the break would be just the job...in fact - i''d start the team like this                                             marshysemmy                     doc                             shax                           plastic

gow                         clinkers                       matty patty                   crofty

                               cody                             mooney

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[quote user="Barclay_Boy"] If not us, then who do you think are going down NN?[/quote]

Got absolutely no idea. Who did you think was going down 7 games ago? It''s impossible to predict but throughout that time I have constantly said we will end up safe with between 52 and 55 points and I''m not gonna change my mind however much posters laugh at me and start threads to ridicule that position. On that point where is Gazza today and his prediction of 40 points[:O]

 

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[quote user="lucky green trainers"]
in fact - i''d start the team like this

                                             marshy

semmy                     doc                             shax                           plastic




gow                         clinkers                       matty patty                   crofty


                               cody                             mooney
[/quote]

Maybe keep Gow and Mooney together. Play Carney on the left and what about giving Adeyemi the nod in Russells place[:O]

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Just wondered if after todays result that anyone still thinks we will get relegated. Yes I know its not over until its mathematically impossible to go down but I think we have turned the corner now.

If you''re still pessimistic then depress us all and tell us why you think we can''t win three more games?

With apologies to my friend Cityangel.

[;)]

 

[/quote]

In my experience teams in threat of relegation often begin to pull freak results out of the bag. We''ve already done it away at QPR. Add to that our uncanny ability to play well against better teams at home.

But there''s a lot of games in hand around us with the other teams so we''re still in a very bad position.

Then again how badly will Forests'' confidence be battered by their 5-0 thrashing yesterday? Just how slippery is the slope Plymouth seem to be slipping down? Can Barnsley take advantage of their games in hand?

This is what makes football so interesting!

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[quote user="Ali Dia"]

We''re gona get nothing off Birmingham, Swansea, Reading, and Ipswich. 

And then 6 points off Watford and Charlton wont be enough I don''t think.

[/quote]

We''re playing Sheff Wed too remember.

Although they''ve won seven on the spin against us their luck must run out one day. 

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[quote user="Canary Wundaboy"]Untill Gunny was forced into dropping Fotheringham and Cureton we looked destined for the drop.
Now, we''re playing better, scoring goals, keeping clean sheets....

....BUT.

All of our stars are not ours are they? They''re loans.
And unless we get money to buy quality in the transfer period before next season, we''ll be right back to a month ago all over again next season.

Sure, short term things are looking positive.
But long term? Different story...
[/quote]

Spot on CW. We''ve done is given ourselves a fighting chance, but, like you I really can''t see how things can improve long term if things remain as they are in the Boardroom.

I still think we''ve had it this term. With our total inconsistency there''s no point getting too excited about a couple of wins although our attack has looked vastly improved in the last two games. We''ve now got the Hoolihan injury plus it''ll probably be out-of-favour Pattison or Fotheringham who''ll have to fill in for the brainless Russell. Can anyone see those two busting a gut for the cause ?

On the plus side both Birmingham and Reading seem to be doing their best to avoid promotion and I can see us getting something from both those games. We''ll probably lose at Swansea ( which will be doubly depressing if we do as I''m planning a visit to the Liberty Stadium ).

Regarding the other games we ought, in theory, to be beating teams like Watford, Sheff Wed and Charlton but with their great record against us Sheff Wed must view playing us as a certain three-pointer in much the same way we do when we play Barnsley.

Ipswich at their place could go either way but if there''s one good thing about beating Plymouth yesterday it makes the horrible possibility of being relegated at Portman Road nuch less likely.

 

 

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It''s a head and heart thing really,

My head says that we started our revival toooooo damned late, it was never going to happen until G.R. left us and when he did it was about two months too late.

However my heart is ever optimistic and I am already looking at next Tuesday hoping Barnsley get thumped at home. It will mean , (heaven forbid !), being a Crystal Palace supporter for the night, UGH ,  but needs is as needs must.

O.T.B.C !

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