Would life in Division 1 really be that bad?

[canarychris 0]

Don''t call me a doom and gloomer, of course i want us to stay up but my head is telling me that we will not collect enough points to achieve this so i have started to consider life in League 1 and what it could bring.

Firstly the squad, i expect we would sell Marshall, Clingan, Croft and Hoolahan and that Fozzy would leave on a free so what would that leave us with? Well as far as senior 1st teamers are concerned we would have Semmy, Doc, Stefanovic, Drury (so we have a back 4) Pattison, Russell (centre midfield) and Cort and Cureton up front. We then have Nelson, Eagles, MacDonald, Spillane, Lappin, Renton and Martin who are all crying out for a chance to prove themselves and youngsters like Rudd, Adeyemi, Stephens, Daley, Lathrope and Smith who unless we blood them them we will never know if they are good enough. This is a list of 20 players and if we could add 3 or 4 senior players to the squad on Bosmans and a couple of loans from Premiership clubs then i am sure the fans would have a squad of players they could identify with and call their own.

Secondly i believe our loyal fans would stay with the club for another season and that we would get crowds of at least 20,000 each week at FCR.

Thirdly the staff. As much as i like and respect Gunny i do not feel he is going to make a great manager. I would be happy to keep Butterworth and Crooky but feel we need to bring in an experienced manager above them.

Fourth, Finances. In an ideal world we would be bought by a billionaire however with the current financial climate i don''t think this is likely so what would happen? I think reducing the wage bill by selling / releasing 5 of our senior players together with maintaining crowds of 20,000 would allow us to carry on at our current levels. The fees received for the sales of players (potentially £6m) could be used to reduce the debt and obviously the reduced wage bill would help cover the reduced attendances.

And finally.....considering all of the above what would you prefer, another season battling against relegation with potentially a weaker squad than we already have (as senior players may be sold regardless of relegation) or the opportunity to rebuild the squad with players the supporters can call their own. I''m not saying we would come straight back up but i do feel the squad we would be left with would be capable of it. If we do get promoted within a couple of seasons we would have a young, ambitious squad who are stronger and more experienced from playing regularly in League 1. Sometimes in life you have to take a step back to move forward and the more i think about it the more i believe this could be the best thing in the long term for the club i have loved for the last 37 years. 

[Castle Acre Canary 0]

Interesting post. In my view we face a probabilty of relegation as we need 18 points from the last 12 games, 1.5 a game , and we have avereaged 0.83 over our previous 12. If we are relegated I would expect revenues to drop about £5mn  from our current £19mn annual turnover. The only real cost we could cut would we wages so we would need to cut some £5mn from our £8.5mn players wage bill. A huge reduction that would only return us to our current position which is already losing between £2mn and £3mn a year. As far as the banks are concerned, we would probably breach our loan covenants and they would insist in all player sales proceeds being used to pay down debt. We do very well on ancillary non football sales so we do not have an opportunity of increasing revenue there. I am afraid our auditors may not be convinced we are a going concern unless we get substantial personal guarantees from third parties at a time when everyone is feeling the pinch.  In such circumstances the directors would be forced to put the club in to administration, 15 point penalty and Division 2 here we come. I do hope I am wrong.

[Castle Acre Canary 0]

Interesting post. In my view we face a probabilty of relegation as we need 18 points from the last 12 games, 1.5 a game , and we have averaged 0.83 over our previous 12. If we are relegated I would expect revenues to drop about £5mn  from our current £19mn annual turnover. The only real cost we could cut would we wages so we would need to cut some £5mn from our £8.5mn players wage bill. A huge reduction that would only return us to our current position which is already losing between £2mn and £3mn a year. As far as the banks are concerned, we would probably breach our loan covenants and they would insist in all player sales proceeds being used to pay down debt. We do very well on ancillary non football sales so we do not have an opportunity of increasing revenue there. I am afraid our auditors may not be convinced we are a going concern unless we get substantial personal guarantees from third parties at a time when everyone is feeling the pinch.  In such circumstances the directors would be forced to put the club in to administration, 15 point penalty and Division 2 here we come. I do hope I am wrong.

[K Lo 224]

I don''t think for a minute that relegation will do us any good at all. The whole idea of success is for a club to get promoted and win stuff, not get relegated.

[canarychris 0]

[quote user="K Lo"]I don''t think for a minute that relegation will do us any good at all. The whole idea of success is for a club to get promoted and win stuff, not get relegated.[/quote]

couldn''t agree more, however unless we find a billionaire investor we will be relegated next season if we aren''t this season. I would love us to still be in the Premiership but the cold hard facts are that we aren''t and are currently a poor Championship side with some promising youg players who with a seasons experience in League 1 might (and i know it''s a big might) be able to move the club forward. We are continuously told that young players can''t be risked in a relegation battle so let''s let them loose next season in League 1 before they all end up at Peterborough or Luton!!! 

[canarychris 0]

[quote user="Castle Acre Canary"]Interesting post. In my view we face a probabilty of relegation as we need 18 points from the last 12 games, 1.5 a game , and we have averaged 0.83 over our previous 12. If we are relegated I would expect revenues to drop about £5mn  from our current £19mn annual turnover. The only real cost we could cut would we wages so we would need to cut some £5mn from our £8.5mn players wage bill. A huge reduction that would only return us to our current position which is already losing between £2mn and £3mn a year. As far as the banks are concerned, we would probably breach our loan covenants and they would insist in all player sales proceeds being used to pay down debt. We do very well on ancillary non football sales so we do not have an opportunity of increasing revenue there. I am afraid our auditors may not be convinced we are a going concern unless we get substantial personal guarantees from third parties at a time when everyone is feeling the pinch.  In such circumstances the directors would be forced to put the club in to administration, 15 point penalty and Division 2 here we come. I do hope I am wrong.[/quote]

i won''t attempt to pretend i know the full financial predicament of the club or the financial risks of relegation, however i do know that we have very loyal support and would get 20,000 each week at FCR, growing to full houses if we where to be successful. I appreciate we will lose a little tv money but a successful League 1 side gets more TV matches than we are currently getting anyway. The money received from sales of players in the summer can be used to accomodate bank payments so i do not see how a couple of seasons in League 1 would put us any nearer adminisaration than we are now.  

[San Miguel 0]

you mean league 1

 

life in the old Division 1 wold be great - Divison 3 sounds a lot worse than League 1 so you can see why they re-name these things all the time

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,023]

From a football perspective you may be right, however I would not be at all surprised if we went into administration if we get relegated.