can u sit down please 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Its that time of year again!I wasted 20 mins of my life and tried to predict the outcome of all the games left. I wasnt to fussed about the scores, more the outcome and the news is good....i hope!We finish on 45 pts thats 2 pts from safety. Our points come against Coventry (3) Blackpool (1) Cardiff (1) Plymouth (3) Sheff Wed (3) Watford (1) and Ipswich (1).This as we know makes our home games VVVVV important as the only away points come from 2 games (2pts) Blackpool and Ipswich.What was interesting was seeing which games in hand the other 2 main teams teams have.Barnsley - Sheff W (A) Sheff Utd (A) - 2 derby games.Watford - Swansea (H) Cardiff (A) Southampton (H) - 3 tough fixtures, realistically with an outcome of only 3 pts.Here is my table:17 - Forest - 48pts18 - Watford - 47pts19 - CITY - 45pts20 - B''pool - 45pts21 - Soton - 43pts- - - - - - - - - - - - - -22 - Plymouth - 43pts23 - Barnsley - 38pts24 - Charlton - 34pts.Lets hope it comes true!Have a go at : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
grantroederdisaster 0 Posted February 15, 2009 WE OPE! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xxxx 0 Posted February 15, 2009 I fancy Charlton to escape , take a look at their run in and it has to be the easiest of all . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lobster catcher 0 Posted February 15, 2009 [quote user="can u sit down please"]Its that time of year again!I wasted 20 mins of my life and tried to predict the outcome of all the games left. I wasnt to fussed about the scores, more the outcome and the news is good....i hope!We finish on 45 pts thats 2 pts from safety. Our points come against Coventry (3) Blackpool (1) Cardiff (1) Plymouth (3) Sheff Wed (3) Watford (1) and Ipswich (1).This as we know makes our home games VVVVV important as the only away points come from 2 games (2pts) Blackpool and Ipswich.What was interesting was seeing which games in hand the other 2 main teams teams have.Barnsley - Sheff W (A) Sheff Utd (A) - 2 derby games.Watford - Swansea (H) Cardiff (A) Southampton (H) - 3 tough fixtures, realistically with an outcome of only 3 pts.Here is my table:17 - Forest - 48pts18 - Watford - 47pts19 - CITY - 45pts20 - B''pool - 45pts21 - Soton - 43pts- - - - - - - - - - - - - -22 - Plymouth - 43pts23 - Barnsley - 38pts24 - Charlton - 34pts.Lets hope it comes true!Have a go at : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm[/quote]sorry to disapoint you but watford play all 10 teams in the bottom 11.Unless all these games are draws your prediction can''t come true Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lobster catcher 0 Posted February 15, 2009 [quote user="Dictator Smith"]I fancy Charlton to escape , take a look at their run in and it has to be the easiest of all .[/quote]Take a look at watfords and change your mind Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Desert Fox 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Your forecast relies upon the following:1. The threshold for safety being much lower than it has for any other recent season.2.Us picking up 13 points from 12 games (current average 0.97 is lower)3. Plymouth picking up 8 points from 14 games (current average 1.19 is higher)4. Barnsely picking uop 6 points from 16 games (current average 1.09 is higher)5. Charlton picking up 9 points from 14 games (current average 0.78 is higher)For your scenario to come true, we would need to improve our current average points per game whilst the other three achieve a propsective points score way out of alignment from their current average. History normally tells us that many teams at the bottom start to increase their points as relegation becomes an increasing possibility (Barnsley have a track record of this and Doncaster appear to be doing it now). I think Blackpool are out of it personally, although history suggests a mid table team getting sucked in to the fight.Clearly the home games aganist Plymouth/Watford and the away game at Chralton could be really critical. Win all three of these and think we will be safe. Lose all three would probably mean relegation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jetstream 0 Posted February 15, 2009 >Your forecast relies upon the following:1. The threshold for safety being much lower than it has for any other recent season.Actually, in the last 5 seasons the surviving team (and the points tally goes as follows):Coventry - 53Hull - 49 (could have survived on 43)QPR - 50 (could have survived on 43)Crewe - 50 (survived by goal diff)Gillingham - 51 (survived by goal diff)So 45 points COULD be enough... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lobster catcher 0 Posted February 15, 2009 barnsley play charlton,plymouth,watford and forest as well as derby and coventry how on earth can they fail to pick up more tha 6 points from these games alone.Look at all the teams run in''s they are all easier than ours! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ncfcstar 291 Posted February 15, 2009 See this post mate:Championship Predictions Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Desert Fox 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Jetstream,I stand corrected, but even so, the odds that the bottom eight teams all finsih with points totals below 49 points has got be fairly slim. Like other posts above, I assume that the OP has preditced lots of draws between these teams whereas more wins would result in more teams getting above the magic 50 points, which seems to be the safety point in most seasons. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SwindonCanary 455 Posted February 15, 2009 I did the same predictor and left it with the last game to play, we were outside the relegation positions but the final day contains Charlton v Norwich and Plymouth v Barnsley all who could be relegated !Just couldn''t bring myself to predict that last day ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jetstream 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Desert Fox,I agree, the margin is more likely to be nearer 50 points than 45 - and the rest of your post sums the problem up neatly.If results go badly for them, there''s always the chance that Southampton will go into administration and take the 10-point deduction now, not next season.All in all, there''s a few too many games left to make accurate predictions yet.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Desert Fox 0 Posted February 15, 2009 NCFCstar,Your prediction just goes to show how difficult the prediction business is. For us to get 56 points now would mean 24 points in 13 games. This is a ratio 1.85 per game which is safely top six form. I assume that if you were to re do this now it would look a bit different. For example, Doncaster appear to eb heading for mid-table safety fast. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
missing in action? 0 Posted February 15, 2009 ive got us to stay up by 7pts...its more based on other teams failing rather than us winning a lot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
colneycanary 0 Posted February 15, 2009 The Plymouth game on March 14th is the Key game and a must win! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Syteanric 1 Posted February 15, 2009 22nd 44 points im sorry to say. we will beat Ipswich and draw with Reading thoughjas :) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shifty Sid 0 Posted February 15, 2009 I think we''ll beat Burnley on Saturday, we always do better against the better teams. We''ll probably get a draw against Coventry and lose to Plymouth.Either way, whatever happens is out of our control with the exception of providing one hell of a hostile atmosphere for opposing teams and not the damp squid that''s been served up in recent games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Largey 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Its not worth predicting, the beauty of the Championship is its unpredictability!I do know however that Norwich will have to learn soon how to win ugly football, and win crucial games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0ridgemanddMMyyyy0Falseen-USTrue 0 Posted February 15, 2009 Largey wrote the following post at 15/02/2009 6:52 PM:Its not worth predicting, the beauty of the Championship is its unpredictability! Bit like the refereeing then really! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canary02 III 0 Posted February 15, 2009 I have us finishing two points above the drop despite a last day defeat to Charlton.It looks like a tight finish for all though, and I ended up with ten teams all finishing within 4 points of the bottom three. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ur just a man in a jacket 0 Posted February 16, 2009 in the first post you have us not losing any games..... you having a laugh!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ur just a man in a jacket 0 Posted February 16, 2009 ignore me, read it too fast! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Taxing 0 Posted February 16, 2009 I think we will stay up because I hold to the belief that we are improving and that we will start winning games beginning this weekend and, perhaps more importantly, looking at the fixtures of the other teams around us it seems logical that they will fail. I believe that we will end up 19th ahead of Watford, Barnsley, Southampton, Charlton and Plymouth. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
InLambertWeTrust! 0 Posted February 16, 2009 Thank the lord for the BBC predictor [8-)] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Desert Fox 0 Posted February 16, 2009 The last day of the season looks very tatsy in terms of six pointers:Charlton vs NorwichForest vs SouthamptonPlymouth vs BarnsleyWatford vs DerbyIf the table is as close as it is shaping up to be, any of these that become three points could make a huge difference. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ca 1 Posted February 17, 2009 45 pts isn''t going to be enough to keep us up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robsonhasscored 0 Posted February 22, 2009 Sat and did this on Tuesday whilst watch SSN - I allowed for the Tuesday scores so we were in the bottom 3 when I did this - and we ended up 16th (honestly tried to be unbias) Just to put all your minds at rest we are now 1 point ahead of schedule after the draw against Burnley - I had us to lose 0-2. By the way it''s nip and tuck for the next few weeks but we won''t be going into the last game needing points.So we are on track. Keep em goin'' Gunny. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mello Yello 2,289 Posted February 22, 2009 Re: The BBC predictor has spoke....SAFETY!! Are you sure? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robsonhasscored 0 Posted February 22, 2009 lol I''m not sure you''re using the predictor correctly mello. may you have a better social life than me - especially Tuesdays! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
