We need the equivalent of 8 wins ish.

[cambscanary 0]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[The Walking Man 13]

I think we''ll gain 17 points from the remaining games leaving us on 49 points, very squaky bum time...

[ButterDuke 0]

1st time poster...

I was at the game yesterday and I certainly share your anxiety. Although in the second half we showed a lot of spirit, you just can''t see where the goals will come from. I have to say that I really cannot see how we are going to get enough points to stay up. Usually you can look around at other teams in the table and identify those weaker than yourself...but who is there? Certainly Charlton.....possibly Southhampton and maybe Barnsley.

The most likely outcome is that we go down. I hope I''m wrong.

ButterDuke

[Helsinki canary 240]

I think 48 points will be the cut off this season - this is how it will end:Norwich     48  GD -13Derby         48        -14Doncaster   48        -18Southampt  47         -20Charlton     38         -27So surviving on Goal difference

[Victor Segura 0]

I''d be happy with 54 points if we got that we''d be well clear more like 47-48.

[Crafty Canary 495]

Our remaining fixtures, in no particular order, are:

Home

Burnley

Cardiff City

Coventry City

Plymouth Argyle

Reading

Sheffield Wednesday

Watford

The games against Coventry, Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday and Watford are absolute must wins as I don''t see us getting anything against the other three. So that''s 12 points though I personally see us getting no more than 8 from those 7 games.

 

Away

Birmingham City

Blackpool

Charlton Athletic

Ipshit town

Preston North End

QPR

Swansea City

 

Taking 48 points as the minimum survival total and assuming we can get the 12 points from our remaining home games then we''ll need 4 from this lot. We might get a point at Blackpool and the scum meaning we''d need to beat Charlton on the last day of the season as I can''t see anything from the other games. Given our historic tendency to choke in the pressure games we''ll probably lose if that game becomes a must-win. I can''t see us getting more than 5 points from the remaining away games and even then I''m being optimistic. So I see us geeting 13 points from our last 14 and to survive with 45 points will require a minor miracle.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="crafty canary"]

I see it like this:

Away  - Wolves       - L
Home - Bristol City  - D
Away - Preston       - L
Home - Burnley       - D
Home - Coventry City - D
Away - QPR             - L
Away - Blackpool  - L

 

3 points and well entrenched in the bottom 3. This assumes that our wonderful board ensure no further signings.

[/quote]

You''ve not got much right so far[:O]

But to be fair neither would I have done. This league is notoriously difficult to predict so don''t be surprised if we get a win at Deepdale.

 

[Crafty Canary 495]

You''re right that football is unpredictable but only the fantasy football crowd can seriously believe we will get more than the point per game we have averaged over our 32 games so far this season in our remaing 14. Yes I''ll be wrong as that''s 46 instead of my predicted 45 but still won''t be enough probably to stay up. Never mind when we are playing Walsall next season maybe you''ll accept we have been relegated. Mind you, you''ll probably persuade yourself that the Saddlers had an incredible winning streak at the end of the season and got promoted via the play-offs. 

[WeAreYellows49 0]

Whatever will be will be the saying goes, and it''s correct.  It''s only the players who can change things on the pitch, although the fans can help by getting behind the team, when they deserve it of course. [:)]

I think the damage was already done whilst Roeder was here, and Gunny and the dream team have been left to try and pick up the pieces, and I can''t think of many people I would sooner have in charge, passion for the club, knows what us fans are all about and has a good way of dealing with the players it seems.

I don''t want us to be relegated, however I think we have known for a while, before Gunny, that it was a possibility.

Let''s hope and pray that the guys on the pitch show guts and determination in our remaining games, to save us from the drop.

[Buncey 1]

I think the points total needed to stay up this year will be lower than 50. I think it''s gonna be tight though. I don''t think we have a great deal about us, and I don''t think many of the other teams around us do either. Originally I was against sacking of roeder simply because I thought we were so bad that we almost certainly gonna be relegated and our best hope was in glenn turning it around but it became more and more clear (to more and more people) that Glenn was just doing an awful job. Looking back into the archives I found the most similar league points totals and distribution of points compared to this season. This table is Jan 31st 2007:

17	Norwich City (16)	29	9	7	13	35	46	-11	1.20	1.58		1.17	34
18	Leicester City (19)	29	8	9	12	29	38	-9	1.00	1.31		1.13	33
19	Barnsley (20)	30	9	5	16	33	48	-15	1.10	1.60		1.06	32
20	Hull City (21)	30	8	7	15	31	42	-11	1.03	1.40		1.03	31
21	Luton Town (23)	30	8	7	15	37	51	-14	1.23	1.70		1.03	31
22	Queens Park Rangers (18)	30	8	6	16	35	47	-12	1.16	1.56		1.00	30
23	Southend United (22)	30	6	9	15	26	47	-21	0.86	1.56		0.90	27
24	Leeds United (24)	29	8	3	18	31	53	-22	1.06	1.82		0.93	27

This is the table May 31st 2007:

17	Coventry City (17)	46	16	8	22	47	62	-15	1.02	1.34		1.21	56
18	Queens Park Rangers (18)	46	14	11	21	54	68	-14	1.17	1.47		1.15	53
19	Leicester City (19)	46	13	14	19	49	64	-15	1.06	1.39		1.15	53
20	Barnsley (20)	46	15	5	26	53	85	-32	1.15	1.84		1.08	50
21	Hull City (21)	46	13	10	23	51	67	-16	1.10	1.45		1.06	49
22	Leeds United (24)	46	13	7	26	46	72	-26	1.00	1.56		1.00	46
23	Southend United (22)	46	10	12	24	47	80	-33	1.02	1.73		0.91	42
24	Luton Town (23)	46	10	10	26	53	81	-28	1.15	1.76		0.86	40

I think the league may end up looking quite similar to this (of course Leeds and Luton were later docked points....)It''s gonna be tight though...

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,017]

One factor to consider is whether Southampton decide to go into administration before the end of the season and take the points deduction now.

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="crafty canary"]You''re right that football is unpredictable but only the fantasy football crowd can seriously believe we will get more than the point per game we have averaged over our 32 games so far this season in our remaing 14. Yes I''ll be wrong as that''s 46 instead of my predicted 45 but still won''t be enough probably to stay up. Never mind when we are playing Walsall next season maybe you''ll accept we have been relegated. Mind you, you''ll probably persuade yourself that the Saddlers had an incredible winning streak at the end of the season and got promoted via the play-offs. [/quote]

Crafty - I believe that we will get at least 20 more points and maybe even 25. The point I was making, that you got all moody over, was not that you''re predictions were wrong but that predicting where the points would come from wouuld be impossible in this league. You predicted 1 point out of our last 2 games, that was correct only you got it the wrong way around. However your prediction of 3 points from 7 games is as much "fantasy football" as those who predict 14. I will predict between 7 and 10 points from those same 7 games and we shall see who is closest. Are you up for the challenge?

I also predict we will finish the season with a points total between 52 and 55.

 

[nutty nigel 7,509]

I had forgotten how close Hull were to being relegated Fellas. The didn''t even make 50 points and yet the next season they were promoted! All may not be lost if we stay up by the skin of our teeth!

 

[Clever Farke 64]

[quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[/quote]

 

Clearly not an exact science, but I estimate 51 points.

Could wins; Coventry H, Plymouth H, Wednesday H, Blackpool A, Watford H, Charlton A

Possible draw; Cardiff H,

Probable defeats; PNE A, Burnley H, QPR A, Birmingham A, Swansea A, Scum A, Reading H.

More than likely needing snookers, or goal difference. More than likely needing to win at the valley in the last game in front of a huge following (fulham wounds still fresh and all).

Bryan, Bryan we love you but we only have 14 games to save us from relegation! 

My lingering irrational hopes rest on a dramatic improvement away from home. I base this on the fact that under Mike Walker in the Prem we were a far more effective team away from home. 5-1 at Everton etc. Now we are seeing a return to these swashbuckling values I can see it happening, ok we may still get the odd caning.

 

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="book end"][quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[/quote]

 

Clearly not an exact science, but I estimate 51 points.

Could wins; Coventry H, Plymouth H, Wednesday H, Blackpool A, Watford H, Charlton A

Possible draw; Cardiff H,

Probable defeats; PNE A, Burnley H, QPR A, Birmingham A, Swansea A, Scum A, Reading H.

More than likely needing snookers, or goal difference. More than likely needing to win at the valley in the last game in front of a huge following (fulham wounds still fresh and all).

Bryan, Bryan we love you but we only have 14 games to save us from relegation! 

My lingering irrational hopes rest on a dramatic improvement away from home. I base this on the fact that under Mike Walker in the Prem we were a far more effective team away from home. 5-1 at Everton etc. Now we are seeing a return to these swashbuckling values I can see it happening, ok we may still get the odd caning.

 

[/quote]7 wins from 14 games is as near as damn it top 6 form...sqeak - gurgle,,,haven''t we had one example of back to back wins this season??? - wolves/donny - parp,,,spasm...hiss///jesus - (taking head out of sand) - how the fudge are we gonna do it???whoosh,,,splat...splash...opps - sorry -[:$]-i''ve just suffered a classic example of an ''premature sqeaky bum explosion'' - an experience likely to be repeated by many a naaaarwich city fan in the weeks to come...[:|]

[nutty nigel 7,509]

Lucky - I predict 52 - 55 points come May.. what''s your prediction?

 

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Lucky - I predict 52 - 55 points come May.. what''s your prediction?

 

[/quote]enough nutty - hopefully...

[nutty nigel 7,509]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

Lucky - I predict 52 - 55 points come May.. what''s your prediction?

 

[/quote]

enough nutty - hopefully...
[/quote]

Who knows what enough is! Make a prediction man!! [;)]

 

[Buncey 1]

For the record: 48 points.

[if I promise to behave 0]

On the basis that we will win games we are expected to lose and lose some games we ought to win, and probably go on another drawing streak, I estimate 18 to 20 more points, which gives us 50 to 52. That depends on some semblance of a back line emerging in the next week or so, and our new forwards showing some form. Alton Towers has nothing on the white knuckle ride which is the lot of a NCFC supporter.

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

Lucky - I predict 52 - 55 points come May.. what''s your prediction?

 

[/quote]enough nutty - hopefully...[/quote]

Who knows what enough is! Make a prediction man!! [;)]

 

[/quote]i will go this far nutty...[:D]imo - our curent defence isn''t fit for purpose...and if that were it - we would stand a real chance of going down///however, if we get this stoke cb loaned in,,,and he and leejer prove goodun''s - and together with the other boys can be coached into a tight defensive unit - then naturally we would stand a better chance of getting the wins we need...but - 7 wins from 14 represents the form of the 7th placed team over the season so far...and we lie 5th from bottom - thats quite a turn around...and fair comment imo...so - we obviously need to pick up as many points as possible - but we could also be relying on other teams performing worse than us - or events like soton going into admin to save us!!![:|]

[Clever Farke 64]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="book end"][quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[/quote]

 

Clearly not an exact science, but I estimate 51 points.

Could wins; Coventry H, Plymouth H, Wednesday H, Blackpool A, Watford H, Charlton A

Possible draw; Cardiff H,

Probable defeats; PNE A, Burnley H, QPR A, Birmingham A, Swansea A, Scum A, Reading H.

More than likely needing snookers, or goal difference. More than likely needing to win at the valley in the last game in front of a huge following (fulham wounds still fresh and all).

Bryan, Bryan we love you but we only have 14 games to save us from relegation! 

My lingering irrational hopes rest on a dramatic improvement away from home. I base this on the fact that under Mike Walker in the Prem we were a far more effective team away from home. 5-1 at Everton etc. Now we are seeing a return to these swashbuckling values I can see it happening, ok we may still get the odd caning.

 

[/quote]

7 wins from 14 games is as near as damn it top 6 form...sqeak - gurgle,,,haven''t we had one example of back to back wins this season??? - wolves/donny - parp,,,spasm...hiss///jesus - (taking head out of sand) - how the fudge are we gonna do it???whoosh,,,splat...splash...

opps - sorry -[:$]-

i''ve just suffered a classic example of an ''premature sqeaky bum explosion'' - an experience likely to be repeated by many a naaaarwich city fan in the weeks to come...[:|]


[/quote]

I think it is time to consider buying an extra arsene wipe in the weekly shop. Maybe some wet wipes too. When you look at it, it is a tall order to stay up. I have a horrible ''Leicester'' feeling about us at the moment, and that is really depressing.  If Gunny keeps us up he should be knighted as Sir Bryan Legend x 2 of the City of Norwich. If we go down, I think he should just remain an ordinary legend.

 

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="book end"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="book end"][quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[/quote]

 

Clearly not an exact science, but I estimate 51 points.

Could wins; Coventry H, Plymouth H, Wednesday H, Blackpool A, Watford H, Charlton A

Possible draw; Cardiff H,

Probable defeats; PNE A, Burnley H, QPR A, Birmingham A, Swansea A, Scum A, Reading H.

More than likely needing snookers, or goal difference. More than likely needing to win at the valley in the last game in front of a huge following (fulham wounds still fresh and all).

Bryan, Bryan we love you but we only have 14 games to save us from relegation! 

My lingering irrational hopes rest on a dramatic improvement away from home. I base this on the fact that under Mike Walker in the Prem we were a far more effective team away from home. 5-1 at Everton etc. Now we are seeing a return to these swashbuckling values I can see it happening, ok we may still get the odd caning.

 

[/quote]7 wins from 14 games is as near as damn it top 6 form...sqeak - gurgle,,,haven''t we had one example of back to back wins this season??? - wolves/donny - parp,,,spasm...hiss///jesus - (taking head out of sand) - how the fudge are we gonna do it???whoosh,,,splat...splash...opps - sorry -[:$]-i''ve just suffered a classic example of an ''premature sqeaky bum explosion'' - an experience likely to be repeated by many a naaaarwich city fan in the weeks to come...[:|]

[/quote]

I think it is time to consider buying an extra arsene wipe in the weekly shop. Maybe some wet wipes too. When you look at it, it is a tall order to stay up. I have a horrible ''Leicester'' feeling about us at the moment, and that is really depressing.  If Gunny keeps us up he should be knighted as Sir Bryan Legend x 2 of the City of Norwich. If we go down, I think he should just remain an ordinary legend.

 

[/quote]

ha ha - lets hope the end of season archant newsboards read something crass, but satisfying - along the lines of ''21 gunn salute'' or ''gunny walks on water'' or ''sheriff gunn wins high noon shoot-out'' - (as a 90th minute penalty awarded by d''urso keeps us up)!!!  

[Clever Farke 64]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="book end"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="book end"][quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival. 7 of the games are home and 7 are away. we need the equivalent of somewhere around 7 or 8 wins.

I''m scared, not confident in the slightest bit that we''ll get out of this. Working from 15th downwards i personally think derby and Forest will get clear and for some reason i feel that watford will too.

Blackpool, barnsley, doncaster, plymouth, blackpool, southampton and us fighting it out for 2 places. I''m hoping Barnsley continue to be poor as do southampton, Plymouth are dropping like a stone and i expect blackpool to be involved although they have a decent head dtart on the rest. Donnie are above us with 2 games in hand. every single one of the teams i''ve mentioned has 1 or 2 games in hand and although they won''t necesarrily win them or even pick up points, you''ve got to expect the odd result for some of them.

Basically i''m very worried. are we capable of getting enough points??? are we strong enough to get out of it?? any thoughts coz i''m very very worried!

CambsCanary

[/quote]

 

Clearly not an exact science, but I estimate 51 points.

Could wins; Coventry H, Plymouth H, Wednesday H, Blackpool A, Watford H, Charlton A

Possible draw; Cardiff H,

Probable defeats; PNE A, Burnley H, QPR A, Birmingham A, Swansea A, Scum A, Reading H.

More than likely needing snookers, or goal difference. More than likely needing to win at the valley in the last game in front of a huge following (fulham wounds still fresh and all).

Bryan, Bryan we love you but we only have 14 games to save us from relegation! 

My lingering irrational hopes rest on a dramatic improvement away from home. I base this on the fact that under Mike Walker in the Prem we were a far more effective team away from home. 5-1 at Everton etc. Now we are seeing a return to these swashbuckling values I can see it happening, ok we may still get the odd caning.

 

[/quote]

7 wins from 14 games is as near as damn it top 6 form...sqeak - gurgle,,,haven''t we had one example of back to back wins this season??? - wolves/donny - parp,,,spasm...hiss///jesus - (taking head out of sand) - how the fudge are we gonna do it???whoosh,,,splat...splash...

opps - sorry -[:$]-

i''ve just suffered a classic example of an ''premature sqeaky bum explosion'' - an experience likely to be repeated by many a naaaarwich city fan in the weeks to come...[:|]


[/quote]

I think it is time to consider buying an extra arsene wipe in the weekly shop. Maybe some wet wipes too. When you look at it, it is a tall order to stay up. I have a horrible ''Leicester'' feeling about us at the moment, and that is really depressing.  If Gunny keeps us up he should be knighted as Sir Bryan Legend x 2 of the City of Norwich. If we go down, I think he should just remain an ordinary legend.

 

[/quote]


ha ha - lets hope the end of season archant newsboards read something crass, but satisfying - along the lines of ''21 gunn salute'' or ''gunny walks on water'' or ''sheriff gunn wins high noon shoot-out'' - (as a 90th minute penalty awarded by d''urso keeps us up)!!!  
[/quote]

Or....in the event of our relegation and bancruptcy, how about a civic reception involving the board being dragged naked by their dangly bits up gentlemans walk, placed in stocks in front of the guildhall and pelted with rotten fruit and veg (conveniently to be found on the market, or otherwise in Tescos) by a huge baying mob of 50,000 with faces contorted in rage?

[Crafty Canary 495]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="crafty canary"]You''re right that football is unpredictable but only the fantasy football crowd can seriously believe we will get more than the point per game we have averaged over our 32 games so far this season in our remaing 14. Yes I''ll be wrong as that''s 46 instead of my predicted 45 but still won''t be enough probably to stay up. Never mind when we are playing Walsall next season maybe you''ll accept we have been relegated. Mind you, you''ll probably persuade yourself that the Saddlers had an incredible winning streak at the end of the season and got promoted via the play-offs. [/quote]

Crafty - I believe that we will get at least 20 more points and maybe even 25. The point I was making, that you got all moody over, was not that you''re predictions were wrong but that predicting where the points would come from wouuld be impossible in this league. You predicted 1 point out of our last 2 games, that was correct only you got it the wrong way around. However your prediction of 3 points from 7 games is as much "fantasy football" as those who predict 14. I will predict between 7 and 10 points from those same 7 games and we shall see who is closest. Are you up for the challenge?

I also predict we will finish the season with a points total between 52 and 55.

 

[/quote]

I''m certainly up for the challenge over those 7 games. Whilst I would love you to be right in predicting 52 to 55 points, that''s a minimum of 20 from our last 14 games or near enough 1.5 points per game. I do think you are living in cloud cuckoo land believing that will happen. That would require at least 8 points from our remaining 7 away games I would say or a tad over a point per game. Given our current away form is 10 points from 16 games or 0.62 points per game it would require an almost 70% improvement in our away form. With visits to Preston, Birmingham, Swansea and QPR I admire your optimism.

[Binky 0]

We WILL do it. Even if we W5 - D4 and  L5 that''s 19 pts - which gives 51 total. I''m with Nutty on this. It may not be pretty or comfortable but we will do it. Sure you can look at the fixtures and say where are 5 wins going to come from - but I expect the same could be said by Watford fans & others. Fortunately we are not alone at the bottom: I think that the 3rd relegation place will be taken by a a team with less than 46 pts.Didn''t play well yesterday - but would we have expected the sort of performance from just 10 men in the second half, pre-Gunn & Co?

[venta icenorum 0]

I would say that the worst we will do is keep averaging roughly one point per game for the rest of the season, leaving us on 46 points. Since Gunn has been manager we have gained 6 points from 5 games, an average of 1.2 points per game. If Gunny keeps this up then over 14 games we''d get roughly 17 points, a total of 49. Of course we could start to really dig deep and produce some extra points against teams to whom the result hardly matters towards the end of the season (i.e. those in mid table or already relegated). Also it''s a steep tactical learning curve for Gunny so you would expect results to improve as he gradually gets his substitutions and team talks more spot on.

A lot of it depends on Watford and Southampton not suddenly discovering form and shooting up the table like Doncaster or Forest! If those two continue to resemble someone up s*** creek with a turd for a paddle then we should be just ok.

[Crafty Canary 495]

[quote user="crafty canary"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="crafty canary"]You''re right that football is unpredictable but only the fantasy football crowd can seriously believe we will get more than the point per game we have averaged over our 32 games so far this season in our remaing 14. Yes I''ll be wrong as that''s 46 instead of my predicted 45 but still won''t be enough probably to stay up. Never mind when we are playing Walsall next season maybe you''ll accept we have been relegated. Mind you, you''ll probably persuade yourself that the Saddlers had an incredible winning streak at the end of the season and got promoted via the play-offs. [/quote]

Crafty - I believe that we will get at least 20 more points and maybe even 25. The point I was making, that you got all moody over, was not that you''re predictions were wrong but that predicting where the points would come from wouuld be impossible in this league. You predicted 1 point out of our last 2 games, that was correct only you got it the wrong way around. However your prediction of 3 points from 7 games is as much "fantasy football" as those who predict 14. I will predict between 7 and 10 points from those same 7 games and we shall see who is closest. Are you up for the challenge?

I also predict we will finish the season with a points total between 52 and 55.

 

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I''m certainly up for the challenge over those 7 games. Whilst I would love you to be right in predicting 52 to 55 points, that''s a minimum of 20 from our last 14 games or near enough 1.5 points per game. I do think you are living in cloud cuckoo land believing that will happen. That would require at least 8 points from our remaining 7 away games I would say or a tad over a point per game. Given our current away form is 10 points from 16 games or 0.62 points per game it would require an almost 70% improvement in our away form. With visits to Preston, Birmingham, Swansea and QPR I admire your optimism.

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Well thats 1 point from 3 so I need 2 from the next 4 and nutty needs at least 6. We are averaging 0.97 points per game for the season or a heady 1 per game under Gunny. We are thus heading for another 13 points at this rate which would give my predicted 45 points. I do hope that Watford and Barnsley start to deteriorate as their season to date points per game ratio puts them both ahead of us. 

[Binky 0]

[quote user="cambscanary"]

14 games left we have 32 points, historically you need about 54 points for survival.

CambsCanary[/quote]That was not true in either 2006 or 2007 - 45 pts would have been enough as I am sure you are aware. Teams around us - and there are quite a few - still have to play each other. Apart from the doom and gloom "fans", our real problem would be if the likes of Clingan got a serious injury.

[Erik the Viking 0]

Current form we have 3 points out of 15 so if that form continues we will get 7/8 more points for the rest of the season so that will leave us on 40 points, I think we could say goodnight NCFC!