By the end of next week

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

By the end of next week we shall be at that watershed moment - the midpoint of the league season.

If we win the next three we''ll have 29pts from 23 matches (equiv. to 58 from 46 - marginal survival form).

If we lose the next three we''ll have 20pts from 23 matches (equiv. to 40 from 46 - relegation form).

Me? I think we''ll be lucky to get one draw out of the next three, so I''d say we''ll finish up with 21 from 23 - equiv. to 42 from 23 - relegation form. Oh dear.

What do you think?

OTBC

 

 

[Matt Juler 208]

Would hardly call 58 point marginal survival form, that would have been 14th last season, 15th in 2006/7, 12th in 2005/6...

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

[quote user="Matt Juler"]Would hardly call 58 point marginal survival form, that would have been 14th last season, 15th in 2006/7, 12th in 2005/6...[/quote]

Yes, but how many points clear of relegation was 58 in those seasons?

OTBC

[Desert Fox 0]

BBB,

Pretty much agree with your prognosis. Although I think we will probbaly lose against Reading and Watford, the derby matahc has a long history of having nothimng to do with form. So I can see us getting three points on Sunday which would make it 23 points from 23 matches. This is still relagtion form, but there are two keys to our survival. Are there three teams worse than us (marginal?) and does our form in the second half of the season improve or worsen compared to the first half (mixed conclusion?).

Agree with Matt Juler - I think 58 points would be pretty safe this year.

[blahblahblah 2]

I can''t see what''s so special about Watford - 1 game won in the last 6, and 2 in the last 10.  They had that game against QPR, but also drew 1-1 against Donny Rovers at home last weekend.  I think we''ll probably eke out a draw against them.  4 or 5 points from the next 3 for me, making 25, which gives you 50 for the season.  Oh, no wait, we actually have to play those other 23 games don''t we.  And there''s a transfer window.  So this is all pointless speculation.

[Salopian 1]

I fear that the worst scenario could become true. I have always been optimistic - we''re too big to be relegated (- Forest weren''t and neither were Leeds).Unless we can find two things, we are doomed.1) Some real cash to acquire a consistent striker or two. Even if we buy Lita, who is not the model of consistency - he''s scored five or is it six, but three of them came in one game, we shall not be able to convert the chances we are capable of creating. You cannot expect to go the whole season without injury to strikers and we are just to thin in that department.2) Consistent, 90 minute endeavour. We have had good halves but lost so many of the games. We have yet to outplay a team over 90 minutes - even against an off-colour Wolves we needed some elements of luck.There are other things we need as well - an injury-free run, players to up their game and technique and a better rub of the green in decisions by officials, but the two seem to me the most important.Given that we have so many players on loan, who may lack experience, ability and even commitment, and some will leave in January, the odds must be against us.The largest problem is the lack of money and the need to sign more loan players, who don''t come cheaply in any case. Loan players are those that other clubs want us to train up or who are borderline in their present clubs.I''m sorry, I have supported our club for nearly sixty years, and for the first time ever I am despairing. If we are relegated there is no guarantee that we shall bounce back soon from Division One. In the absence of money, I fear that we may need a few years of team building.

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="Salopian"]I fear that the worst scenario could become true. I have always been optimistic - we''re too big to be relegated (- Forest weren''t and neither were Leeds).Unless we can find two things, we are doomed.1) Some real cash to acquire a consistent striker or two. Even if we buy Lita, who is not the model of consistency - he''s scored five or is it six, but three of them came in one game, we shall not be able to convert the chances we are capable of creating. You cannot expect to go the whole season without injury to strikers and we are just to thin in that department.2) Consistent, 90 minute endeavour. We have had good halves but lost so many of the games. We have yet to outplay a team over 90 minutes - even against an off-colour Wolves we needed some elements of luck.There are other things we need as well - an injury-free run, players to up their game and technique and a better rub of the green in decisions by officials, but the two seem to me the most important.Given that we have so many players on loan, who may lack experience, ability and even commitment, and some will leave in January, the odds must be against us.The largest problem is the lack of money and the need to sign more loan players, who don''t come cheaply in any case. Loan players are those that other clubs want us to train up or who are borderline in their present clubs.I''m sorry, I have supported our club for nearly sixty years, and for the first time ever I am despairing. If we are relegated there is no guarantee that we shall bounce back soon from Division One. In the absence of money, I fear that we may need a few years of team building.[/quote]agreed, on paper - both forest and especially leeds should never have gone down - but their squads got into a losing habit and when confidence goes, it can be hard to get back...

[Desert Fox 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

I can''t see what''s so special about Watford - 1 game won in the last 6, and 2 in the last 10.  They had that game against QPR, but also drew 1-1 against Donny Rovers at home last weekend.  I think we''ll probably eke out a draw against them.  4 or 5 points from the next 3 for me, making 25, which gives you 50 for the season.  Oh, no wait, we actually have to play those other 23 games don''t we.  And there''s a transfer window.  So this is all pointless speculation.

[/quote]

BBB,

1. Watford are a very physical side and we dont generally play well againts phsyical sides (apart from Docherty)

2. Our away record is poor. We have played away 11 times this year and won once against the bottom of the table side.

3. They have a new manager and there is generally a statistical correlation between a new manager and improved form. They ran Spurs close during the week.

Lets hope I am wrong!!

 

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

I can''t see what''s so special about Watford - 1 game won in the last 6, and 2 in the last 10.  They had that game against QPR, but also drew 1-1 against Donny Rovers at home last weekend.  I think we''ll probably eke out a draw against them.  4 or 5 points from the next 3 for me, making 25, which gives you 50 for the season.  Oh, no wait, we actually have to play those other 23 games don''t we.  And there''s a transfer window.  So this is all pointless speculation.

[/quote]

Spoilsport.

Boooooooo............!

OTBC

[grantroederdisaster 0]

Probable scanario by the end of next week - Even more fans will be realising that Roeder is not up to the job!

 

I fear we''ll be very near the bottom of the table if not in the relegation positions at the end of the seaosn if Roeder is allowed to carry on!