Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
SuperWesIrishWizard

The HBOS situation...... (for tipster)

Recommended Posts

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

[quote]This software also calculated that approx 42.6% of Pink ''Un readers would actually believe that red square could power Europe if left unproven and that of the remaining 212% a whopping 95.6% are just happy to continue using the very large hamsters in wheels to power the Country.[/quote]

Of the 42.6 % who would believe it if left unproven, 99.9 % of those will carry on believing it anyway, unless the myth can be disproven by actually trying it.

Shall I book you a couple of tickets for Moscow ?

[/quote]See, this is where we need Houston Canary''s input... in his view, Moscow was probably a myth created by the Commies in the 50s that has subsequently been hijacked by European governments to raise taxes and fool the general populous for reasons as yet unknown. Thank God the Bush administration was there to prove us all wrong!  "Moscow?" said Bush in a recent interview.  "Isn''t that somewhere in Iran?"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Desert Fox"]

Simon,

This is off topic so I will keep it brief as I dont want to be accused of being more boring than I am by the discussion board police.

I was immediately thinking about the failure to stand up to the banks (who are their biggest clients) with regards to reporting the true and fair value in recent accounts. Further back, in my opinion virtually anything audited by AA to fiascos like the Rover Group. From my own experience, the accounting industry is way to close to the management of compnaies who have appointed them rather than shareholders on whose behalf they are ultimately acting.

[/quote]

from a bigger perspective, how about enron and the multitude of evasions (frauds) committed then and since in the ''shadow banking sector'' that is unregulated, untaxed and offshored - this being arguably the reason for our present woes in the primary banking and capital markets - "the worst banking crisis since WW1"

the dotcom and credit crunch ''south seas bubbles'' are the worst frauds in 200 years imo - so yeah, the financial services system has hardly covered itself in glory has it???  how much has been lost??? £4-8 trillion???

ask yourselves - where has the money gone???  why is my private pension worth jack??? why will my house be worth maybe 50% less from peak to trough???  our loss is someones gain, make no mistake...
[/quote]

 

The simple answer is that it was never really there to start with.Gold reserves have been sold off over the years leaving currency backed only by the promises of governments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Evil Monkey"][quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"][quote user="Evil Monkey"][quote user="Shack Attack"]This is fun isn''t it [|-)][/quote]Indeed... an argument between accountants is about as exciting as staging a reconstruction of the invasion of Normandy with... erm, with - well.... accountants!  Okay, bad analogy... accountants are boring, you get the gist... [;)]Anyone wanna talk about environmental economics? Nope, thought not....[/quote]Yeah why not..... did you know that Red Square in Moscow represents the area of solar panels needed to power the whole of Europe?I have plenty more of them if you need them![/quote]That''s not really to do with environmental economics though, is it, its just a titbit of information.  I was thinking more along the lines of starting an argu... I mean... starting a debate about environmental taxes, paying to protect the environment, etc.... no one bit, though, so let''s keep on arguing about accounting instead.... [:|][/quote]i''ll have a go EM!!!obviously, the adam smith economics of the past 30 years has not worked well in protecting the environment or hasten efforts to curtail the advance of climate change via controlling co2 emissions...but then ''big government'' can also make mistakes, for example efforts to encourage a greater use of biofuels is causing huge damage to the amazon rain forest as trees are felled to make way for growing the crops needed for biofuel production...so clearly, initatives must be targetted carefully, if not to prevent trouble occurring elsewhere that negates the purpose from the original policy.for me - governement incentives to help people make good environmental choices is probably the best way to go at present - i.e significant assistance for house insulation, and home energy generation projects (upto 75%) for all householders irresepctive of income would be good.   i would go as far to say, the ultimate target should be for all housing to be super-insulated by 2020, and for many dwellings to be energy self sufficent...either by the widespread use of ground source pump technology, wind turbine or solar PVP''s...in additional, public transport should be heavily subsidised and government incentives to help people buy greener cars - like electric or dual fuel etc...i also believe, that through the use of technology, more people should be allowed to work from home...many desk jobs could be done from home via web conferencing and high speed broadband, and that companies should be encouraged by tax breaks to pursue this...hopefully, the successor to kyoto will bring china, india, brazil and the rest of the g20 onto the same footing as other developed countries...building a new coal power station each week in china is not helpful to co2 pollutions!!! but something needs to be done internationally, and i believe with bush gone, and the laisse faire economics of the past 30 years under review/suspicion, then maybe real and effective change can occur to tackle climate change and protect our environment for future generations...waiting for technoloical advances to occur naturally to save the planet was laughable when bush announced it back in 2004 - but alarmingly, ourown governments supports for renewable technologies is shameful in my view...the uk generates only 5% through renewables, way below the euro average...the quicker we get seriously involved to tackle climate change the better,,,has obama, brown and other world leaders the gumption and mandate to take on the world elite??? i would say they have their best chance in over 30 years...good luck, they will need it!!!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Everybody knows the reason for Moscows'' existence as a myth, during the cold war anyway.  If people fear an outsider, then they have more to gain from trusting the governing power.  Chances are they''ve made some theme park there now with all the big scary pretend missiles and tanks and stuff from previous processions in the 70s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, what a thread. 

As yet another Chartered Accountant, could I say that, yes, there is always a chance that the Club could go into administration.  But don''t panic too much.  It all depends in the end on confidence from the lenders, and usually people responsible do have a soft spot for the club and will do their best to keep it going.  If they start to have a wobble then the NCFCPLC bubble will burst.  Thankfully, as Doomcaster keeps telling us, the debt is all serviceable, save for this £2.5m. 

The most likely scenario will be the original lender (HBoS?) rolling over the loan.  Perhaps not on the same terms, but actually in the current market there actually might be a reduction in the cost of servicing the debt.

Thereafter the next port of call will be to negotiate with one of the other existing lenders will to take over the loan themselves.  This is on the basis they would not want to face the loss of any chance of recovering their own loans at this moment. 

If it got this far then the club would milk the working capital as much as possible, and let''s face it overdraft costs at the moment of 3-4% on £2.5 million is probably only the cost of one youth players contract so are easily affordable. 

Lastly if they did not want to weaken cash flow (''cos to get back to football, they wanted to splash out £500K on Lita) there would be a call to individual shareholders to come to the rescue. 

All of the above would easily get us to the end of the current season.  No guarantee of saving us from relegation, but let''s hope we beat the Scum both home and away at least!

OTBC.

PS:  I know a guy from the Co-op Bank and talk football regularly with him.  The Co-op have an Intensive care unit especially set up for football clubs they have money lent to.  They will never pull the plug because they know the PR would affect them badly (they understand what being a fan is all about)!  The worst mistake Ken Bates ever did for Leeds was to change their bank - it was previously with the Co-op.  If he hadn''t have done that we might have been playing them this season.  Silly old Ken. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shefcaanary,

Excellent post. I agree completely with your analysis of the £2.5M loan and this will clealry not put us into adminitartion. However, the ''elephant in the room'' is the impact of declining season ticket sales, match day revenues (e.g. club shop and catering) and non-main sponsor commercial backing (i.e. corporoarte hospitality). I believe that these are likley to be badly hit through a combination of the recession and the impact of continued poor performance on the pitch. Releagtion would drive an even bigger nail into the proverbial coffin. If we dial in a 20% reduction in revenues, suddenly all of those structured debts start to look very shaky. At the very least this would force a rengotaition of lending covenants which have a significant cost on debt service and transaction fees.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good post Desert Fox and here''s one I made earlier:

 

21/11/2008, 6:30 PM

Canary Nut is online. Last active: 05/12/2008 16:58:30 Canary Nut

Top 150 Posts
Joined on 03/08/2005
Posts 1,528

Re: Lets not forget............

Reply Quote

 Canary Nut wrote:

BTW., if you think the power is only with the majority shareholding just look at what happened at Southmpton when the fans went on a season ticket renewal boycott.  Its just as much about recurring revenues as the majority shareholding!

Enjoy Obama!

Have a nice day!

 

Don''t forget the above Cranky Yanky.


Where are the good experienced strikers?
----------------------------------------
Stagnation/decline with Delia''s NCFC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Beauseant"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Desert Fox"]

Simon,

This is off topic so I will keep it brief as I dont want to be accused of being more boring than I am by the discussion board police.

I was immediately thinking about the failure to stand up to the banks (who are their biggest clients) with regards to reporting the true and fair value in recent accounts. Further back, in my opinion virtually anything audited by AA to fiascos like the Rover Group. From my own experience, the accounting industry is way to close to the management of compnaies who have appointed them rather than shareholders on whose behalf they are ultimately acting.

[/quote]from a bigger perspective, how about enron and the multitude of evasions (frauds) committed then and since in the ''shadow banking sector'' that is unregulated, untaxed and offshored - this being arguably the reason for our present woes in the primary banking and capital markets - "the worst banking crisis since WW1" the dotcom and credit crunch ''south seas bubbles'' are the worst frauds in 200 years imo - so yeah, the financial services system has hardly covered itself in glory has it???  how much has been lost??? £4-8 trillion??? ask yourselves - where has the money gone???  why is my private pension worth jack??? why will my house be worth maybe 50% less from peak to trough???  our loss is someones gain, make no mistake...[/quote]

 

The simple answer is that it was never really there to start with.Gold reserves have been sold off over the years leaving currency backed only by the promises of governments.

[/quote]true beau - but this is only a obvious symbol of how the age old rules of banking/finance were dropped in favour of more relaxed methods,,,the chronic easing of asset/liquidity ratios at banks and the arrival of new financial investment models/instruments effectively knitted the primary world financial sector into the secondary offshore sector - and the interaction between the two has imo produced 2 scandalous ''booms and busts...'' rather than produce good husbandry via sustainable growth, these instruments and products created unsustainable stock/credit booms, that drew in investors money from the primary sector and there into the real economy and people lives...yeah great - rising stocks, easy credit and high house prices were great while they lasted, but the party has ended, and the world economy looks to be falling off a cliff...what soft landing???  so while its simple to say the money never existed,,,to the ordinary punter in the street, their personal loans, credit card bills and mortgages are very real, as are their repayments, falling pension plans, crashing house and asset values!!!  and what about the resultant world recession that''s currently producing job insecurity affecting people''s ability to pay these debts???  - needless to say, the forecasted doubling of uk''s public debt - and the governments £500m buyback of the uk primary banking ''toxic debt''s'' is also very real, and will affect this country for years to come...the scale of the bubble that caused the credit crunch is staggering - the ''derrivitives'' market alone is estimated to be 10 times world GDP!!! simply astounding and potentially ruinous to us all...as confidence folds, then the scale of this bubble has deflated alarmingly, as suddenly investors want their money back, this is how the UK banking system nearly went bust, and is how 4 of the 5 largest wall street investment banks have gone under...with the largest ouch times 20!!!no wonder the credit markets are closed, just how big are the losses out there - no one knows cos the secondary market is unregulated and offshored - its an international scandal where national governments are powerless...and without access to intl money market funds, its easy to see why uk banks are lending cautiously, like the rest of us, they are holding onto their money - rather than loaning...cos where''s the next buck coming from???imo - its the biggest pryamid racket ever - and if the dotcom scandal was a starter, then the credit crunch could end up as a 6 course binge...good times still for the ''masters of the universe'' - but lean times for the innocent...unless the accountant types of here know different???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="Desert Fox"]

I think Jas has made a valid point.

The wider banking, accounting and commercial property sectors have hardly covered themselves in glory. Being a qualified member of one of those sectors (as indeed I am) does not make your views any more correct than anyone elses. This is a discussion board where everyones views are allowed to be heard and debated.

Also, dont forget that we are delaing with the matter of opinions and not facts regarding what is a private company which has excercised no discretion whatsover in providing additional financial information (i.e. segmental reporting would be incredibly handy to know).

[/quote]Actually property professionals had been saying for 2 years that the bubble was going to burst, its just that the media, the government and the property developers and investors did not listen. It was obvious that the bubble was going to burst, it always does. The Media and The Government have laid a lot of blame at ''experts'' not raising the problem, but plenty of property professionals within all disciples where questioning the wisdom of the governments policy to allow the market to over supply certain city centres. Planning regulations are what allow developers to build, and they hardly excelled themselves by allowing 30,000 city centre apartments in Sheffield and 40,000 city centre apartments in Leeds. Studies have shown that the market for this type of living, in terms of desirability is about 3% of the population, thus the onus is soley on the greed of the developers and the incompetence of the government.And in defence of accountants, they have nothing whatsoever to do with the greed of banking institutions, they just get a fair bit of work helping people to pick up the pieces afterwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"][quote user="Desert Fox"]

I think Jas has made a valid point.

The wider banking, accounting and commercial property sectors have hardly covered themselves in glory. Being a qualified member of one of those sectors (as indeed I am) does not make your views any more correct than anyone elses. This is a discussion board where everyones views are allowed to be heard and debated.

Also, dont forget that we are delaing with the matter of opinions and not facts regarding what is a private company which has excercised no discretion whatsover in providing additional financial information (i.e. segmental reporting would be incredibly handy to know).

[/quote]

The Media and The Government have laid a lot of blame at ''experts'' not raising the problem, but plenty of property professionals within all disciples where questioning the wisdom of the governments policy to allow the market to over supply certain city centres. [/quote]

The media such as the national BBC News on television should take their share of the blame for repeating reports that housing was affordable ( based I think on reports from Nationwide if my memory is correct, please correct me if I am wrong). I used to cringe when they kept blasting out that message.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...