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SuperWesIrishWizard

The HBOS situation...... (for tipster)

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Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

The remainder of the debt, about £15.5m, is secured for a relatively long period. But that £2.5m could well put us into administration.  £2m of that £2.5m was to come from the interest free loan from the Turners, which they have taken back out of the club, thus there is a £2m budget shortfall. Contrary to criticising Peter Cullum, we should be criticising the Turners for putting the future of our club in jeopordy.

So stop pretending that you know what your talking about.

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...and if I am not mistaken that loan is secured against land, which is not worth anywhere near as much as it once was.

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And your information is so new and interesting that it deserved its own

thread? I''ll take the word of an accountant over that of a keyboard

warrior any day of the week, personally...

Agree that the Turners deserve much more of our derision than either

Delia or Cullum at present, much of our situation is down to their

backing out...

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[quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"]

Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

The remainder of the debt, about £15.5m, is secured for a relatively long period. But that £2.5m could well put us into administration.  £2m of that £2.5m was to come from the interest free loan from the Turners, which they have taken back out of the club, thus there is a £2m budget shortfall. Contrary to criticising Peter Cullum, we should be criticising the Turners for putting the future of our club in jeopordy.

So stop pretending that you know what your talking about.

[/quote]

 

lol if you want to believe that, you can do. I would hope, being a chartered accountant would mean i do know what I''m talking about and I havent passed all those exams for nothing ;) . Yes the financial situation is dire, but that 2.5m loan recall will not put the club into administration unless they go and do something ridiculous between now and the recall.

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its a poor situaashun...pity then board didn''t see fit to sell the club at the end of last season, or in july, or mid august or thereafter until the banking crisis unfolded in october...now its unsaleable,,, 

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[quote user="lucky green trainers"]its a poor situaashun...

pity then board didn''t see fit to sell the club at the end of last season, or in july, or mid august or thereafter until the banking crisis unfolded in october...

now its unsaleable,,,

 
[/quote]

 

they need a buyer to enable them to sell. Cullum did not offer to buy the club. He offered to take up unissued shares for his 20m investment. This would have meant a Delia not getting any money for her shares as she wouldnt have sold them, and she would still be at the club anyway.

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[quote user="Tipster101"][quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"]

Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

The remainder of the debt, about £15.5m, is secured for a relatively long period. But that £2.5m could well put us into administration.  £2m of that £2.5m was to come from the interest free loan from the Turners, which they have taken back out of the club, thus there is a £2m budget shortfall. Contrary to criticising Peter Cullum, we should be criticising the Turners for putting the future of our club in jeopordy.

So stop pretending that you know what your talking about.

[/quote]

 

lol if you want to believe that, you can do. I would hope, being a chartered accountant would mean i do know what I''m talking about and I havent passed all those exams for nothing ;) . Yes the financial situation is dire, but that 2.5m loan recall will not put the club into administration unless they go and do something ridiculous between now and the recall.

[/quote]

Dont patronise me I am a commercial property specialist, and yes im chartered, so know enough about investment, land values and company accounts. Thank you.

I also know that you dont know whether the club has the liquidity to raise £2.5m in cash. I also know, that you dont know whether or not the club has enough equity from its land assets taking into consideration deflation (not just recent deflation but also possible future deflation, values are expected to continue to fall) to refinance.

So mister ''Chartered Accountant'' why dont you listen to mister ''Chartered Surveyor''

 

£2.5 million, which is secured against the value of Carrow Road when borrowed, is 13% of the clubs debt.

The value of land/property in the East of England has fallen between 13-15%.

The value of land/property in the East of England is expected to fall another 6%.

If, which I think is likely judging by the analysis from the £32k a year software I am sitting at right now, the club has taken all possible equity against Carrow Road....

Then.... we will not be able to borrow £2.5m from any financial institutions because we now dont have the value in the  land / property rights to secure this against.

That 13% of debt, has balanced out the fall in the land and property assets.

Meaning that, until we pay RBOS we are in negative equity, if we pay RBOS then at some stage next year we will enter negative equity again.

 

This is all very hypothetical of course, I would not do a full appraisal without significant payment, however you will see that if the club cannot raise that £2.5m against its land assets, and the club does not have the cash already (do you really think we have ANY cash?) then the only way to raise that £2.5m is:-

Donations

Private Loans (e.g. The Turners £2m that they pulled)

Investment

Sale of other assets (So players).

 

So before you get all high and mighty on me, please realise that my area of expertise has EVERYTHING to do with EVERY  aspect of your job at the moment. Every financial problem within an economical context relates to property.

Your are obviously a very small, and locally minded accountant.

 

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If I remember rightly, I think one of the posters on here asked Neil Doncaster what would happen, and as RBS are now owned by the government, I think his reply was that it would be the first case of the government forcing a football club into administration.  Or I could have dreamt the whole thing.

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The government may never have forced a club into administration but Maggie banned us from Eorope the very first time we qualified. Would you trust them to do right by us?

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The government may never have forced a club into administration but Maggie banned us from Eorope the very first time we qualified. Would you trust them to do right by us?

[/quote]

That''s a very tabloid way of looking at it Nigel [:)].  Did Maggie ban us from Europe ?  Really ?

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[quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"]

Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

But that £2.5m could well put us into administration.  [/quote]

RELAX!

Firstly there was £4m (as at 31st May 2008) that NCFC could squeeze out from its working capital, so thats the obvious source of £2.5m should the club have to repay the £2.5m loan.

Secondly I dont think HMG has a majority shareholding in HBOS (I''m not even certain the shareholders of HBOS have had their vote yet regarding the fundraising which HMG. is underwriting) and therefore its wrong to imply that the government is a majority shareholder (unlike RBS). The majority shareholders can tell (within reason) the minority shareholders where to go! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

But wouldn''t we be in the same stuation if they had sold the club then...

or maybe a worse one.....

 

[/quote]

Nutty, do you think someone would spend an awful lot of money to take over a club, only to see it enter admin. a few months later for the sake of £2.5m?

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[quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"]

Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

[/quote]

He may be referring to something else and not the repayment of the loan........

 

such as not having much money (if any) for player purchases that we badly need!!!

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[quote user="Tipster101"][quote user="SuperWesIrishWizard"]

Hate to piss on your BBQ Tipster, but the ''boards talk'' said that our financial situation is Dire, and Doncaster has himself said that is HBOS / the government dont agree to arrange a £2.5m loan that is due at the end of December, then we will be in serious trouble.

The remainder of the debt, about £15.5m, is secured for a relatively long period. But that £2.5m could well put us into administration.  £2m of that £2.5m was to come from the interest free loan from the Turners, which they have taken back out of the club, thus there is a £2m budget shortfall. Contrary to criticising Peter Cullum, we should be criticising the Turners for putting the future of our club in jeopordy.

So stop pretending that you know what your talking about.

[/quote]

 

lol if you want to believe that, you can do. I would hope, being a chartered accountant would mean i do know what I''m talking about and I havent passed all those exams for nothing ;) . Yes the financial situation is dire, but that 2.5m loan recall will not put the club into administration unless they go and do something ridiculous between now and the recall.

[/quote]

I agree with Tipster.

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Wes, first things first I never patronised you, if you reread it you will see I was joking about exams meaning something, hence the ;)you will then see that you go on to attempt to patronise me in your post by stating I work for a small local firm, when I infact don''t and I work for the 5th largest accounting firm in the UK.You also state incorrectly that i dont know certain aspects of the situation, which in fact I do know. So now thats out of the way...your hypothesis is correct but it does not take into account any other factors merely the ones that support your argument, and you even state the various places money will come from thus destroying the argument that the club will go into administration. NCFC will never be forced into administration by the 2.5m loan recall. There are so many, and i mean SO MANY ways to get round it only a very mediocre businessman/director etc would end up getting the firm into such a position as to be forced to go into administration due to a 2.5m recall. My argument in all this is that NCFC will not go into administration as a result of the 2.5m loan recall, and nothing more. And you seem to think I''m wrong? Do you think the government would force a football club at this time into admin over such a relatively small amount? especially after recent gov announcements that you should know about being in the trade.Do you not think Delia would put in some money to stop the situation in the short term?Do you not think Cullum would stay true to his word and donate the small amount needed to stop your disaster?Do you not think some assets could be sold to stop the situation?Do you really think a small amount of 2.5m will lead to such a large business'' downfall? 

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[quote user="Tipster101"]Wes, first things first I never patronised you, if you reread it you will see I was joking about exams meaning something, hence the ;)

you will then see that you go on to attempt to patronise me in your post by stating I work for a small local firm, when I infact don''t and I work for the 5th largest accounting firm in the UK.

You also state incorrectly that i dont know certain aspects of the situation, which in fact I do know.

So now thats out of the way...

your hypothesis is correct but it does not take into account any other factors merely the ones that support your argument, and you even state the various places money will come from thus destroying the argument that the club will go into administration. NCFC will never be forced into administration by the 2.5m loan recall. There are so many, and i mean SO MANY ways to get round it only a very mediocre businessman/director etc would end up getting the firm into such a position as to be forced to go into administration due to a 2.5m recall.

My argument in all this is that NCFC will not go into administration as a result of the 2.5m loan recall, and nothing more. And you seem to think I''m wrong? Do you think the government would force a football club at this time into admin over such a relatively small amount? especially after recent gov announcements that you should know about being in the trade.

Do you not think Delia would put in some money to stop the situation in the short term?

Do you not think Cullum would stay true to his word and donate the small amount needed to stop your disaster?

Do you not think some assets could be sold to stop the situation?

Do you really think a small amount of 2.5m will lead to such a large business'' downfall?

 


[/quote]

I do.

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[quote user="Ren"]

[quote user="Tipster101"]Wes, first things first I never patronised you, if you reread it you will see I was joking about exams meaning something, hence the ;)

you will then see that you go on to attempt to patronise me in your post by stating I work for a small local firm, when I infact don''t and I work for the 5th largest accounting firm in the UK.

You also state incorrectly that i dont know certain aspects of the situation, which in fact I do know.

So now thats out of the way...

your hypothesis is correct but it does not take into account any other factors merely the ones that support your argument, and you even state the various places money will come from thus destroying the argument that the club will go into administration. NCFC will never be forced into administration by the 2.5m loan recall. There are so many, and i mean SO MANY ways to get round it only a very mediocre businessman/director etc would end up getting the firm into such a position as to be forced to go into administration due to a 2.5m recall.

My argument in all this is that NCFC will not go into administration as a result of the 2.5m loan recall, and nothing more. And you seem to think I''m wrong? Do you think the government would force a football club at this time into admin over such a relatively small amount? especially after recent gov announcements that you should know about being in the trade.

Do you not think Delia would put in some money to stop the situation in the short term?

Do you not think Cullum would stay true to his word and donate the small amount needed to stop your disaster?

Do you not think some assets could be sold to stop the situation?

Do you really think a small amount of 2.5m will lead to such a large business'' downfall?

 


[/quote]

I do.

[/quote]

Ren,

Given that £4m.  could be squeezed out of working capital (as at 31st May 2008), I would like to read your rationale as to why the £2.5m loan would lead to administration.

 

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its happened to other clubs for round about that much or even less

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[quote user="Ren"]

[quote user="Tipster101"]Wes, first things first I never patronised you, if you reread it you will see I was joking about exams meaning something, hence the ;)you will then see that you go on to attempt to patronise me in your post by stating I work for a small local firm, when I infact don''t and I work for the 5th largest accounting firm in the UK.You also state incorrectly that i dont know certain aspects of the situation, which in fact I do know. So now thats out of the way...your hypothesis is correct but it does not take into account any other factors merely the ones that support your argument, and you even state the various places money will come from thus destroying the argument that the club will go into administration. NCFC will never be forced into administration by the 2.5m loan recall. There are so many, and i mean SO MANY ways to get round it only a very mediocre businessman/director etc would end up getting the firm into such a position as to be forced to go into administration due to a 2.5m recall. My argument in all this is that NCFC will not go into administration as a result of the 2.5m loan recall, and nothing more. And you seem to think I''m wrong? Do you think the government would force a football club at this time into admin over such a relatively small amount? especially after recent gov announcements that you should know about being in the trade.Do you not think Delia would put in some money to stop the situation in the short term?Do you not think Cullum would stay true to his word and donate the small amount needed to stop your disaster?Do you not think some assets could be sold to stop the situation?Do you really think a small amount of 2.5m will lead to such a large business'' downfall? 

[/quote]

I do.

[/quote]please explain why.... its funny how if Delia had put in 2.5m in the summer everyone would have been moaning that it was such a small amount etc blah blah. and yet when the figure being touted for the club to pay back is 2.5m its a huge amount thats going to lead to a large business'' downfall.

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[quote user="dp"]its happened to other clubs for round about that much or even less[/quote]who? you cannot use Leeds or Luton as examples either due to the amount of money involved with leeds and the fact that luton had no where near the assets norwich have or the amount of fans bringing money into the club. Kenilworth road would never run at a profit.

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[quote user="Canary Nut"]

I doubt whether Luton had £4m that it could squeeze from its working capital at the time it went into administration.

 

[/quote]Fact!

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

But wouldn''t we be in the same stuation if they had sold the club then...

or maybe a worse one.....

 

[/quote]hey???  more likely in a better position if they''d sold,,,but of course, it depends who to...so - we shall never know nutty - but what we do know is that the club is unsaleable (effectively), losing money and has spent its playing side budget for the season already - and is relying on an outside businessman to finance the wages of leezer...this is not good,,,[:(]

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