whats the current fair market value of NCFC???

[lucky green trainers 0]

i now talk of the cullum deal in the summer flushed out loads of you city types onto this msg board - accountants and laywers - with years of deals experience to spare - and you knowingly picked over and laid bare all the ins and outs...for which, us ordinary punters were much grateful for...so since the summer, when the board helpfully estimated the clubs value - what would the fair market value of NCFC currently be in your opinions???given, the turners have walked, we''re probably loss making (???), there''d be an asset write down between july and now, and to boot - the credit crunch has deepened and we''re probably entering a deep and lasting recession...lets be ''avin your esteemed estimates please!!!

[Soldier on 290]

I would be interested in an accountant/lawyers verdict on the value of our club.

I really wouldnt have a clue but on the face of it cant be worth much.  Large debt although not even close to deby of many prem clubs.  Depreciating assets.  Few contracted players that could be sold on.  Guess the flipside is very loyal support and huge, huge potential if someone could give us the finance to bring the good times back

[Mr Magoo 0]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"]i now talk of the cullum deal in the summer flushed out loads of you city types onto this msg board - accountants and laywers - with years of deals experience to spare - and you knowingly picked over and laid bare all the ins and outs...for which, us ordinary punters were much grateful for...

so since the summer, when the board helpfully estimated the clubs value - what would the fair market value of NCFC currently be in your opinions???

given, the turners have walked, we''re probably loss making (???), there''d be an asset write down between july and now, and to boot - the credit crunch has deepened and we''re probably entering a deep and lasting recession...

lets be ''avin your esteemed estimates please!!!
[/quote]

 

A fiver ought to do it

[canary cherub 1]

There''s no such thing as a "fair" market value imo. 

The club''s value depends on how much the owners want to sell it and how much a prospective buyer is willing to pay. 

 

[whoareyou? 0]

About tuppence ha''penny and a bag of chips, in it''s current state, i reckon!

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="Potless Percy "]

There''s no such thing as a "fair" market value imo. 

The club''s value depends on how much the owners want to sell it and how much a prospective buyer is willing to pay. 

 

[/quote]

That''s probably true. In fact I would go further and say that it''s only the controlling interest that has a value and that value may not reflect any independent valuation of the club as a whole.

So, the way I see it, any potential buyers would have to prove their worth to those that control the club and come to an amicable financial agreemnent with them. This may or may not be in line with the boards valuation of the club in the summer. My personal opinion is, that like other occasions in the past, it would not be.

 

[city-till-i-die 7]

its only worth as much as some one is willing to pay

the 56mil that was bantered around in the summer i think included all debts and 20mil for delia and co

the debts say 36mil ish   would any off you as prospective buyers pay delia & co 20mil for her shares in norwich football club?

i personnaly wouldnt because the club is apparently losing money hand over fist

if delia could get the 12mil back she has supposudly put into the club..i think she would take that and run

 

im not an accountant lol....this is just my humble oppinion

 

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,220]

Anybody buying the club will have to agree a price for the shares to take control of the club, presumably all loans would have to paid and all debts cleared. There then is the small matter of how much a prospective new owner is prepared to invest in the club, particularly the playing side. Leaving investment aside I would estimate you are looking at circa £35M to buy the shares, repay the loans and clear the debts.

[Soldier on 290]

Depending on whether the loans can be re negotiated.  Most of the loan is from Delia/Michael/Turners with only a limited amount in the form of bank loans.  As Cullum''s firm Towergate have demonstrated the banks will lend money if they believe in the business

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="Soldier on"]Depending on whether the loans can be re negotiated.  Most of the loan is from Delia/Michael/Turners with only a limited amount in the form of bank loans.  As Cullum''s firm Towergate have demonstrated the banks will lend money if they believe in the business[/quote]

I believe around 16m is a bank loan of sorts which becomes payable if the ownership of the club changes. And I also believe this is non-negotiable so any deal between Smith&Jones and a buyer would trigger those conditions. It may be possible for any new owner to re-finance it though. The directors loans would be payable too.

 

[Soldier on 290]

Thats my mistake then I was under the impression that the bank loans formed around 8 million with the other 11 milion or so loans to delia/michael & Tureners

[canary cherub 1]

[quote user="Soldier on"]Depending on whether the loans can be re negotiated.  Most of the loan is from Delia/Michael/Turners with only a limited amount in the form of bank loans.  As Cullum''s firm Towergate have demonstrated the banks will lend money if they believe in the business[/quote]

No that''s not the case.  The main loan is the £15m securitisation deal which restructured our existing debt and paid for the Jarrold Stand.  It''s a 15 year bank loan (RBS??) which was taken out in 2003.  For the first few years it was interest only, now we are paying interest + capital but there must still be £13-14m outstanding.  I am not sure whether this loan has to be paid back in full if the club is sold. 

Incidentally there was a programme on R4 about securitisation loans the other day where they said this is the kind of loan which has been bundled up with others and sold on by the lenders and is at the centre of the banking crisis.  I have no idea whether our loan is still held by the original lender or, if not, who we actually owe the money to. 

 

[T 191]

I''ve written on this more extensively else where before. The majority of football clubs do not generate any cash flow from operations for their owners - they basically look to break even or run at a loss so their economic cash value is at best nil which would be the PC argument.

However, in practice, football clubs have a desirability value (ie what is rich person is willing to pay for a rare toy) beyond their fair economic value so you would normally look at what other clubs of a similar status and financial position have been sold for. I think there was a report on the bbc a while back which did this.Spurs are asking for 500m and Newcastle 300m while I think Hull was valued at 10m when they were just a run of the championship club. 

The minimum value you would normally be expected to pay for the shares is the net assets of the business which last year was the 16m that the club asked for in the official announcement. The other definition of fair could be the amount the owners have put in adjusted for inflation/basic rate of interest.

Ultimately as PP said and NN have said before it is what ever 2 parties agree.

[lucky green trainers 0]

thanks for your replies - on the basis of what everybody has said - given the current economics - imo, its very doubtful the smiths will get back what they''ve paid, so based upon the previous £16m figure, its certain this value is subject to asset write downs that will reduce this figure further, and given that lots of clubs are for sale in the prem and champs - and no deals have been done - clearly investors believe now is not such a good time to buy into football>>>i have sympathy for the smiths, is as far as their exit strategy via the turners went belly up - and they are left holding the baby - but many investors have lost big time in the credit crunch and many more will lose in the real economy as the recession bites deep - jobs are lost and houses lose value or are even repossessed...timing is everything in life - and simply, if the smiths are looking to go now, i can''t see a worse time to do it - there are no buyers, but lots of sellers and in this market and the serious seller should be prepared to sell low...even ashby at newcastle...imo - i can''t see the smiths throwing good money after bad - why should they???  in their shoes, who wouldn''t want to get the highest price now, and if it was thought by holding on until next year, and better price could be negotiated, then why not???  surely - keep your valuables locked away under market conditions improves, unless you HAVE to sell to stave off creditors???trouble is - the smiths have a very public commodity for sale - they are running a footy club...one that is clearly in transition, and short of cash...and unless we can find some winning form, then the ride will get bumpy on the pitch and in the boardroom as the disgruntled voices grow louder,,,personally, i expect them to do no more than keep the club going and i guess they are hoping that things will begin to gell on the pitch...so, at the mo - i think the smiths stock looks horribly overvalued - but for the sake of NCFC, i hope we can get a run together and comfortably stave off relegation - and by the end of the season, hopefully conditions will have improved and a sale can be conducted...cos - imo the smiths probably deserve the time at least - to sell the club at a price that rewards them reasonably for the effort they''ve put in,,,clearly that time isn''t now, the market is all wrong///but for the supporters to force the issue and to hound them out now would be akin to kicking them while they are down wouldn''t it - do they deserve the gutter treatment???  maybe they do - maybe they should have sold up and gone at the end of last season - i mean, despite the turners being on the board - we hardly set the tranny market alight in the last 3 windows - maybe delia should have kept quiet at the royal norfolk show...have they been foolish??? if they knew they didn''t have the dosh in the summer - why hang around???  wasn''t that inviting trouble??? 

 

[Canary Wundaboy 1,423]

I would say £16mill.

Cullum could easily renegotiate the loan from the bank, and the investment is optional, NOT a requirement for club investment.

I must admit I laughed so hard when the board stated that the £20mill playing side investment was a stipulation, apparently PC couldn''t BUY the club without doing it but it''s fine for them to OWN the club without doing it!!!

[nutty nigel 7,902]

I didn''t realise that the 20m into the playing squad was a stipulation. I was under the impression that the board said that was the price to an investor who wanted to invest 20m and have full control.

 

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,786]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[/quote]fair enough, and who would blame you...what about other shareholders??? if you absolutely had to sell now - what do you reckon you''d get per share??? £30???

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[/quote]

fair enough, and who would blame you...

what about other shareholders??? if you absolutely had to sell now - what do you reckon you''d get per share??? £30???
[/quote]

I wouldn''t sell.

But the point that nobody seems to take on board is that what the club value the shares and what an individual shareholder may sell for are not the same thing.

 

[lucky green trainers 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[/quote]fair enough, and who would blame you...what about other shareholders??? if you absolutely had to sell now - what do you reckon you''d get per share??? £30???[/quote]

I wouldn''t sell.

But the point that nobody seems to take on board is that what the club value the shares and what an individual shareholder may sell for are not the same thing.

 

[/quote]thats true nutty - but we know the shares have been valued by the club at £30 each - isn''t that so???but do shareholders believe this valuation is accurate???  how much do you believe your shares are worth in the current market for instance nutty???  £5,10, 20,30,50???  £30 per share - can a sale be credibly done at that price in the current economic conditions???

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[/quote]

fair enough, and who would blame you...

what about other shareholders??? if you absolutely had to sell now - what do you reckon you''d get per share??? £30???
[/quote]

I wouldn''t sell.

But the point that nobody seems to take on board is that what the club value the shares and what an individual shareholder may sell for are not the same thing.

 

[/quote]

thats true nutty - but we know the shares have been valued by the club at £30 each - isn''t that so???

but do shareholders believe this valuation is accurate???  how much do you believe your shares are worth in the current market for instance nutty???  £5,10, 20,30,50??? 

£30 per share - can a sale be credibly done at that price in the current economic conditions???
[/quote]

I have no idea Lucky. The only time I have had an offer for my shares was £17 each in the mid 80''s.

But the only shares that I am aware are valued at £30 are the unissued shares held by the club. Private shares are only worth what two parties privately agree to exchange them for. That includes Smith&Jones shareholding. The difference with theirs is that any sale triggers the repayments of all the loans too.

 

[The Fish Seller 0]

£17 per share right now and repayment of any outstanding loans would be a good deal for Michael and Delia right now. I don''t think they''re in any position of strength here as they don''t have the type of money to rough it out in fact they''ve barely got enough money to slow the decline let alone arrest it. Sad but true. How many more years can they plough in £2m pa in loans? What if we''re relegated, the projected revenue streams on which the securitisation deal was secured will dwindle alarmingly and £2m pa could jump to £4m pa just to survive in the lower league. £17 per share plus loans reapaid gives them the chance of walking away with the thick end of £10m, delay that another year or two and they could very eesily end up with nothing or a tenner in return for their shares and the debt.

[komakino 282]

The figure quoted to Cullum previously was a complete joke - wholly unrealistic. It''s like saying you want to sell something, but have absolutely not intention of doing so.

What Delia might not have come to terms with is that as she has ran the show so badly, she doesn''t deserve to get her money back. Bad businesses when sold, are bought cheap because they have been run badly - NCFC is no different.

[Lenny-boy 0]

cost of buildings and fixtures and fittings... 17.9 million pounds, for scrap (and redevelopment.)

take off the debt of 18 million and its goodnight Norwich City.

oh, and the team are worth zero, half are returnable loans, half end their contracts at the end of the season.

If our promising goalkeepers are sold, should just about get enough cash to have a season in division two , because the recievers are coming in soon and we will have a massive points deduction.

cheery old stuff, but if that gets rid of the board then good.

[pete_norw 0]

[quote user="city-till-i-die"]

its only worth as much as some one is willing to pay

the 56mil that was bantered around in the summer i think included all debts and 20mil for delia and co

the debts say 36mil ish   would any off you as prospective buyers pay delia & co 20mil for her shares in norwich football club?

i personnaly wouldnt because the club is apparently losing money hand over fist

if delia could get the 12mil back she has supposudly put into the club..i think she would take that and run

 

im not an accountant lol....this is just my humble oppinion

Thats why we won''t get a new owner, she has out priced the club, she wants us to go bust so she can build a multi story Cafe, The Hotel is stage 1 of her plan    

 

[/quote]

[Beauseant 0]

[quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="lucky green trainers"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

One problem is that the shares do not trade as such. The shares owned by Delia will be sold only if Delia (or her advisors) accept the offer. So far there is no offer so that''s that.

I hear £30 per share mentioned, but that would mean that Delia makes a profit, which was not so she leads us to believe her intention. If she gets her "loans" back too she is laughing.

I paid £25 for my four shares. I''d take £30. That''s £20 clear profit to offset against the four season tickets I wasted money on this year!!!!!!!

[/quote]

fair enough, and who would blame you...

what about other shareholders??? if you absolutely had to sell now - what do you reckon you''d get per share??? £30???
[/quote]

I wouldn''t sell.

But the point that nobody seems to take on board is that what the club value the shares and what an individual shareholder may sell for are not the same thing.

 

[/quote]

thats true nutty - but we know the shares have been valued by the club at £30 each - isn''t that so???

but do shareholders believe this valuation is accurate???  how much do you believe your shares are worth in the current market for instance nutty???  £5,10, 20,30,50??? 

£30 per share - can a sale be credibly done at that price in the current economic conditions???
[/quote]

 

Because the club is a PLC its shares can theoretically be traded on the stockmarket. However, there is currently no market in NCFC shares, meaning that share values have more in common with private companies, ie a majority interest, as pointed out by others on here, is worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it. Minority holdings have no real value at all, except to someone trying to create a majority holding. One side issue of this is that the current state of the stockmarket has no direct relevance to the value of NCFC shares, although the economic situation may  impact on the capital resources of a prospective buyer.

[The Fish Seller 0]

although the economic situation may  impact on the capital resources of a prospective buyer.This summers figure was calculated thus. Assets minus debt = equity. ie £51m - £35m = £16m (share value). I''m sorry but anyone who thinks that our assets have not decreased and our debt has not increased during the last year is in complete denial. Domestic property down 15%, commercial property down 20% landbank value down 30%, higher interest rates, more restrictive terms etc. etc., recalculate the sum using the lower of these figures, 15% of £51m is approx 7 and a half million quid that''s just about half the value of the shares (as quoted by Delia and Co based on our 2k7 A/C''s) wiped out. Factor in the loss declared the extra loans taken on etc. there''s not much equity at all in the Club now. I suggest no matter how the market may have affected prospective buyers there''s no doubt the sort of money quoted during the summer woulld not hold up under due diligence and it is the prospective buyer who would hold the high ground when negotiating any potential deal.

[Beauseant 0]

 I''m sorry but anyone who thinks that our assets have not decreased and our debt has not increased during the last year is in complete denial

Steady on! I was merely trying to give some factual information in response to the question. I didn''t suggest that the price shouldn''t be lower, just that there is no true market value. I totally agree that the buyer holds the high ground. Why is everybody so bloody aggressive on here these days?

[The Fish Seller 0]

Sorry Beausant didn''t mean to come across aggressive, and tbh by ''anyone'' I intended to be referring more to our majority shareholders than yourself or other posters. I''ve a horrible feeling the maj shareholders have held out thinking they''re sitting on a crock of gold and they won''t find out until it''s too late that in the real world they''re not.

[Beauseant 0]

 

No problem, mate.I''m probably getting paranoid with all the bad feeling on here at the moment! I just hate the fact that this situation is putting fans at each others throats, and I totally agree with your comments about the unrealistic expectations about the share price.I just hope common sense prevails before the club goes completely down the toilet!