IS THIS THE WATERSHED WEEKEND?

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Saturday, 01 March 2008

Barnsley v Sheff Wed, 15:00

Bristol City v Hull, 15:00

Burnley v Watford, 15:00

Cardiff v Leicester, 15:00

Colchester v Wolverhampton, 15:00

Norwich v Blackpool, 15:00

Preston v Crystal Palace, 15:00

Scunthorpe v Coventry, 15:00

Sheff Utd v Charlton, 15:00

Southampton v Ipswich, 15:00

West Brom v Plymouth, 15:00

---

Sunday, 02 March 2008

QPR v Stoke, 13:15

 

This is truly the season of uncertainty in a league short on quality but long on competitiveness and where the margins are wafer thin. No side dominates, no side is looking sure of promotion or relegation, anyone can beat anyone and in a league where wins traditionally far outweigh draws in terms of worth the draw has become a useful result if collected as part of an unbeaten run.

 

At Norwich we base our hopes on such an unbeaten run which has been, paradoxically, disrupted by two outstandlingly poor performances. We wonder whether our hard to beat, difficult to score against character can bring us success despite our appalling lack of goals. We are not dour but we can''t finish.

 

In such a tight league it is inevitable for fixtures to be more generally significant, but just look at this weekend:

 

Norwich City have the opportunity to make things very aspirational again by winning against Blackpool. There is every chance of most of the teams above them losing or dropping points and they could go up two or three places and be four points from the play offs. Next week they face two difficult away games but the psychological effect of being on the cusp of the play offs might drive them forward against inconsistent Watford.

 

Alternatively; a draw or defeat could leave the sense of being back in the pack scrapping to stay clear of relegaton and facing two very difficult away games at the end of which they could be feeling a little uncomfortable and looking to get over the safety line and nothing else. It is probable the league table will further constrict and teams below Norwich could suck them back down by beating those higher placed sides,  that is the pattern of the season, so why not?

 

In reality, there are going to be many twists and turns before this season is out. Quite honestly, I thought we had blown any chance of a shout after Hull and Leicester so clearly, with a quarter of a season left, there is plenty of intrigue yet. However, it is hard to get away from the feeling that a home win against Blackpool this weekend is a watershed, particularly with the potential outcome of other games. Alright, we may lose it and win the next two away games, but I have to feel that to win it would be to inspire the players for those matches.

 

As a minimum, a win this weekend would keep us above the pack and keep the jitters at bay thus taking the nervousness out of our play. Every game is important but getting three points on Saturday would surely make the table and our potential look very interesting indeed and we could at least enjoy that in a season we believed to be dead with Norwich prematurely cremated.

 

Pressure is building, sides who anticipated straight promotion now face the uncertainty of the play offs and will be really feeling it, some will fold. Roeder will not fold and his team of youth will not have the fears because youth tends not to.

 

Is this the ''watershed weekend?'' Is this the date when Norwich found an extra gear to go with their consistency and lifted themselves while others folded? Get behind them on Saturday, cheer them on to three points and let Watford feel the pressure of slippage when we arrive with nothing to lose but everything to gain.

 

March the first. Will this be the watershed day of the Championship season? It could be!

 

On The Ball City!

 

 

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

Quite an interesting post James. Good punditry, but a few things I''d like to comment on realistically, rather than pessimistically. I really want to make the playoffs as well, but unfortunatly I think the horse has well and truly bolted.

[quote user="James T. Kirk"]

There is every chance of most of the teams above them losing or dropping points and they could go up two or three places and be four points from the play offs.

[/quote]

At an absolute maximum, we can only go up 2 spots after Saturday, as there are only 2 clubs within 3 points of us. If we win, and both Palace and Wolves drop points, then we will be in 10th.

[quote user="James T. Kirk"]

Is this the ''watershed weekend?'' Is this the date when Norwich found an extra gear to go with their consistency and lifted themselves while others folded? Get behind them on Saturday, cheer them on to three points and let Watford feel the pressure of slippage when we arrive with nothing to lose but everything to gain.

[/quote]

As much as a want to share your optimistic view, I just can''t. I think the watershed moment was a long time ago. We have 12 remaining games left. If we pick up maximum points in all games, this would leave us on 81 points. If we hypothetically take the conservative view that 72 points will be the cutoff for the playoffs, this means we can only drop 9 points in our last 12 games. Even in our amazing run of 13 games undefeated, we drew 6 times, thus dropping 12 points in a run of form that hasn''t been seen at the club for many years. Therefore, we would need to go on a better run than this in order to qualify, and considering we have the likes of Watford (who I agree are inconsistent), Stoke and West Brom to contend with, I just can''t see it happening.

As much as I want to agree with you mate, I''m a realist first. I''d love a playoff spot as much as anyone, but when you look at the numbers, they just don''t add up in our favour.

I will be behind the team none the less though, and sincerely hope you''re right and I''m wrong.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Consider this though N&C.

The teams currently in 5th and 6th places have 52 points at an average of 1.52 per game. Maintaining their season form would give them 70 points.

Under their form since Roeder arrived Norwich would have 64 points and since the Coventry home game when things kicked in 67 points, so there is very little in it and Glenn might end up with the dreaded 7th again and no doubt he and the Board would get stick from many.

With such a narrow margin anything can happen but, we must surely win this weekend. It does throw a certain light on the Board''s month long dallience in signing Roeder as a couple more matches under him may end up being the difference.

I have no expectation of play offs but I do want the excitement of having a go and, in any event, I want us to win every game.

I think we would need to pull off three away wins, five home wins and two draws  whilst losing only twice to have 71 points and a chance.

If we beat Blackpool we need to win 7 from 11 and draw 2. Can we go 11 games with only two defeats? Clearly, yes! The question has to be.....can we score goals to win games; and that is the key. Find someone to get goals and we have a chance. Otherwise, I suspect we will rue yet more home draws we should have won.

There is little to choose between our home and away results. If anything we are doing better away.

Once again....this weekend might be key as the outcomes will build hope and fear.

 

[Carrow89 186]

" Therefore, we would need to go on a better run than this in order to qualify,"Not strictly true. At current form the sixth place will, at 1.5 points a game average so far, finish on 69 points.At our current points average since Coventry at home, 2.11 points , would see us on 70.5 points -  if we can keep us this rate then it''s a possibility.Within that possibily lies us keeping on a very good run. A run, so good that were it to have been over the whole season would have seen us finish on 97 points ! Mathematically it''s possible, managerially it''s possibly - support wise it would be a bl**dy certainty.So, you 24 odd points..... lets be ''avin ya ! ! !

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

72 points, 70 points - I still think we''ll drop more than 11 points - like I say, I hope I''m wrong.

You make a great point regarding the dreaded 7th spot though. There will be many questions asked about the use of the January transfer window should we finish 7th.

Personally, I don''t think people can be too hard on the manager/board for setting expectations greater than a mid-table finish considering our well publicised appalling start. The turn around we have had this year is the stuff bad b-grade movies are made of (where the 13 games unbeaten would have been the montage in the middle to the tune of "Holding out for a hero". At least the team in the movie always wins the last game right?).

I think others will be a harder judge on the manager / board than me though.

 

 

[Duffman 0]

Dont forget most teams have an extra point on us due to goal difference.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Just to pull things a little back on track, this thread is about this weekend and what could or could not be. I don''t want it to be a basis for an early post mortem on what might have been it is just about us winning on Saturday and then having a very interesting look at the league table because of the general mix of fixtures.

How pleasing to be in such a position.

[Huddy 0]

Barnsley v Sheff Wed, 15:00

Bristol City v Hull, 15:00            Hull travelling to 2nd placed Bristol City -

Burnley v Watford, 15:00

Cardiff v Leicester, 15:00

Colchester v Wolverhampton, 15:00   Wolves at Colchester. Wont be easy.

Norwich v Blackpool, 15:00

Preston v Crystal Palace, 15:00      Tricky for palace at preston

Scunthorpe v Coventry, 15:00

Sheff Utd v Charlton, 15:00         Cant see charlton winning at Bramall Lane

Southampton v Ipswich, 15:00   Away trip for Scum as well.

West Brom v Plymouth, 15:00   Cant see Plymouth winning at West Brom

---

The sides in the play off hunt all seem to have tricky games this weekend and a win against Blackpool and we could perhaps get within 4 or 5. They are all away, and this saturdya could be a serious chance to make up some ground.

 

[paul moy 235]

I think we can do it, starting with wins against Blackpool and Watford.  I listened to the Preston v Stoke game last night, and judging by the Stoke performance against Preston who were bottom 3, this really is the most open Championship ever.  

There was also some ''good'' news for us in that their defender Cort could be injured when they play us as he was stretchered off, and also Whelan was booked and the commentator said that he would not be available for the game against Norwich.  

 

 

[we8wba 0]

for norwich most certainly is big weekend

if you win and majority of results go your way, you will be firmly in the pack and not just outsiders

if you fail to win / or and the higher teams all win, you gain nothing and stay outsiders

i think out that list my side has next easiest game to you, but i dont think we win there, and no games easy this stage of season

good luck we all need it

[Polar 0]

I think everyone is going overboard by looking at statistics of past seasons. this season is completly different, the teams are far more compact and now more than ever anyone can beat anyone. so we simply need to finish above the team in seventh place and it is possible, if we are what? 7 points off play offs? something like that, with the chance of being about 4 off at the weekend theres no reason why we can''t cut that points gap down.i say take each game as it comes, lets get behind the team and not worry about stats from previous seasons.oh... and you know Glenn is destined to always finish seventh.

[a1canary 0]

Thing is, every time we win, the next game becomes a watershed! I remember this when we won the league, thinking "if we can just win this game then..." and then the next week thinking exactly the same!

The effects of every win or defeat are magnified as the games run out. So yes, if we win against Blackpool that''ll be great, but then tell me the next game at Watford won''t be huge. When Charlton play Bristol City too. 

Equally, if we lose a couple, we can all go home and the season may as well be over. That''s the danger at the moment - now that it looks like we won''t be relegated, we now risk being marooned in our usual mid-table position and having nothing to play for for a good few months. So there''s another reason we''ve got to keep winning!  

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

This is how I think it will look by Sunday evening (not looking too hard at goal difference):

1. Stoke. P36.......................63 (There recent good form has been down to a run of home games but now they have some tough matches - play offs).

2. Bristol C. P35..................62 (The surprise package - I think they could make straight promotion).

3. Watford. P35..................60 (Hopefully have shot their bolt - play offs).

4. WBA. P34.....................56 (Look likely to win straight promotion as others fade  - strong squad).

5. Plymouth. P35................53 (Will do well to scrape a play off spot)

6. Charlton.P35..................53 (Wouldn''t count them out of the play offs).

7. Burnley. P35..................53 (Dark horses - have to be considered contenders - play offs)

8. Ipswich. P35..................51 (Will fade and fail to reach te play offs)

9. Hull.P34.........................51 (Will battle hard in a good season for them but not have enough for the top 6)

10. Wolves.P34.................48 (although I have a feeling they may actually lose to Col U - they will continue to bump along in 10th ish).

11. Norwich.P35...............48 (likely to fail due to a lack of firepower and will need a massive result at Watford - we owe them one for sure).

So there it is: tighter than a fat girl''s thighs in a pencil skirt. It certainly would help keep the interest for another week........wouldn''t it?

As someone else wrote it is an entirely different proposition breaking into the top half as opposed to breaking away from less consistent teams in the bottom half.

But imagine we fail to beat Blackpool. How will that affect our players looking forward to a couple of tough away games? And this is why I see it as a watershed weekend, now or never, do or die. And is it better to be sitting on the shoulders of others ready to pounce than be looking over your shoulder at those coming up behind you?

The top 4 are surely top 2 or play offs - out of the next 7: if City win and get to 11th or 10th, they are competing for 2 places with 6 others with 5 points the difference over 11/12 games in an inconsistent league where they are now a consistent team. And out of that 7 I regard only 4 teams as viable contenders of which we are one.

It hinges on this Saturday.

 

 

[CRAFTY CANARY 0]

Ah But!

You are missing one thing?

If a miracle happens and we WIN all our remaining games where would we finish then?Throw that into the pot and see where

we might end up.

Also what about a Norwich v Ipswich play off final.How squeeky bum feeling that would be.

You can live in a dream you know.

 

O.T.B.C.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

I don''t expect us to win every game Crafty I was basing my analysis on getting a result this weekend and then being able to see what is possible based upon the form of other teams which has been consistent all season and the form of a team like ours which has improved.

I now think we are in a situation where our current form tends to match those top sides so to get in amongst them we have to do something extra special. I fear our impotence in front of goal will cost us in this respect unless someone suddenly steps up to the plate and puts chances away.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Looking at the threads since the defeat I think you now know why I asked if the Blackpool game was a watershed!