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The Priest

Promotion odds drifting badly,do the bookies know best?

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This graph shows the last months averages across all the major bookies. The first big blip relates to Earnshaw leaving, the other two i think may relate to Etuhu and Safri. Look at that last blip though, do the bookies know something we dont? Just how informed are they and would you agree with this being a realistic perception of our chances.

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This graph shows how odd odds are and what you can do with an abreviated scale.The actual change here, represented by a lengthening of 8 on our odds, is a 0.56% decrease in the chances of us winning the league.The bookies gave us a 2.94% chance on May 31st and a 2.38% chance now.  It hardly means we have got massively worse recently, although all figures do suggest that they reckon we have a lower than random (4.17%) chance of winning the league.with odds, 200-1 (~0.5%) and 500-1 (~0.2%) are about as likely as each other, but 2-1 (33%) and 3-1(25%) differ massively.

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Lets be realistic the top 2 is out of reach we have not got the money to compete with the likes of sheff utd, charlton. charlton sold bent for 16.8 million and dont forget there parachute payments we just cant compete however the play offs is reachable

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[quote user="7rew"]This graph shows how odd odds are and what you can do with an abreviated scale.

The actual change here, represented by a lengthening of 8 on our odds, is a 0.56% decrease in the chances of us winning the league.

The bookies gave us a 2.94% chance on May 31st and a 2.38% chance now.  It hardly means we have got massively worse recently, although all figures do suggest that they reckon we have a lower than random (4.17%) chance of winning the league.

with odds, 200-1 (~0.5%) and 500-1 (~0.2%) are about as likely as each other, but 2-1 (33%) and 3-1(25%) differ massively.
[/quote]

haha, you said some numbers XD

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[quote user="Fellas"]44/1 is a very good price for any team that buys 9 quality players in the summer.
[/quote]

Let us know who it is and we''ll put some money on...............

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Hang on a minute why is everyone assuming shef u and charlton will go straight back up-

the championship is such a tough league-the team that gets the consistency,fitness luck etc will go up Watford where fav to go down the other year and they went up,I have to say Charlton look like they''ve got a great chance,but generally believe shef u are goin no where-

but like i say i dont know-but what is for certain is that there are about 10 clubs in with a shout at least and where one of them!

 

anyway a bet on Norwich winning the league is not sucha  bad idea in my opinion

 

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Best bet is to take an each-way, normally 1st-4th place.  Getting it at 40/1, gives you a 10/1 chance of making money.  Worth a Tenner, you never know!

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I think that Sheff Utd with Beatte and Sharp upfront will be very very good, Coventy and Leicester will be up there. I hava really bad feeling that so will Ipswich, I was looking at there first 11 and it looks good and on par with ours, but there problem is not the first 11, its the squad and thankfully they don''r have a strong squad.Don''t be surprised if they are up there come May. Please lord, promotion for us and relegation for them, would be lovely.

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It will be really, really tight again this year I think, at both ends of the table. Probably half the league at least has a decent chance of making the play-offs.

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