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The Million Dollar Question? : Why do we struggle so much against 'average' sides?

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Points Scored against each team, in league order

 

1) Derby                      1                                  (Robbed at home!)

2) Sunderland               3

3) Birmingham              6

4) Preston                    3

5) West Brom              3              (1 Game Left)

6) Southampton            0            (1 Game Left)

7) Wolves                    1                                  (Robbed at home!)

8) Stoke                       3

9) Cardiff                     3

10) Colchester              1

11) Sheffield Wed’       0            (1 Game Left)

12) Crystal Palace        0

13) Ipswich                  0            (1 Game Left)

14) NCFC

15) Plymouth                0

16) Coventry                1

17) Burnley                  0            (1 Game Left)

18) Leicester                3            (1 Game Left)

19) QPR                      4

20) Hull                        4

21) Leeds                     3

22) Barnsley                 6

23) Southend                2

24) Luton                      6

 

1-8                   20 Points from 14 Games  1.43 Per Game

9-16                 5 Points from 12 Games 0.42 Per Game

17-24               28 Points from 14 Games  2 Per Game

 

Overall             53 Points from 40 Games  1.33 Per Game

 

This suggests that our problem this season has been against the sides around us, we’ve picked up enough points against the top sides to be competitive, and have picked up a decent tally against the poor sides.

 

So why have we struggled against the Coventry, Palace, Plymouth, Colchester, and also lost our only game to Burnley and Ipswich. Our Only win against a side positioned 9-16 is against 9th placed Cardiff. No wins against anyone from 10-17.

 

Your thoughts?

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It also shows that we have earned 24 points from teams currently in the top half as opposd to 29 from teams in the bottom half!

It will also be interesting to see the results of such an analysis at the end of the season

What might also be insightful Matt would be to do the same analysis based on the league positon of our opponents at the time when we actually played them during the season. Might be difficult to get hold of the league tables though.

OTBC

 

 

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[quote user="BlyBlyBabes"]

What might also be insightful Matt would be to do the same analysis based on the league positon of our opponents at the time when we actually played them during the season. Might be difficult to get hold of the league tables though.

OTBC

[/quote]

Top 8 : P11 W6 D0 L5  18 points at an average of 1.636 per game. Over the season this would mean 75 points and a likely play off place.

Middle 8: P17 W3 D5 L9  14 points at an average of .823 per game. Over the season this would mean 38 points and certain relegation.

Bottom 8: P12 W6 D3 L3 21 points at an average of 1.75 per game. Over the season this would mean 81 points and a certain play off place.

I''m not sure these figures mean anything at all to be honest. IMO after 46 games we are where we deserve to be whatever teams we pick up the points against.

 

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You could look at this one of three ways.

We are either a good side that sink to the level of our poorer opponents.......

Or we could be a poor side who rise to the occasion when playing a good side.

Or we are an average and inconsistant outfit that turn up at random when we feel like it.

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="BlyBlyBabes"]

What might also be insightful Matt would be to do the same analysis based on the league positon of our opponents at the time when we actually played them during the season. Might be difficult to get hold of the league tables though.

OTBC

[/quote]

Top 8 : P11 W6 D0 L5  18 points at an average of 1.636 per game. Over the season this would mean 75 points and a likely play off place.

Middle 8: P17 W3 D5 L9  14 points at an average of .823 per game. Over the season this would mean 38 points and certain relegation.

Bottom 8: P12 W6 D3 L3 21 points at an average of 1.75 per game. Over the season this would mean 81 points and a certain play off place.

I''m not sure these figures mean anything at all to be honest. IMO after 46 games we are where we deserve to be whatever teams we pick up the points against.

 

[/quote]

I agree, of course we deserve to be where we are after 46 games, but it shows the same pattern and it doesnt explain why our record against the average sides is stopping us challenging!

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[quote user="Matt Hudson"][quote user="nutty nigel"][quote user="BlyBlyBabes"]

What might also be insightful Matt would be to do the same analysis based on the league positon of our opponents at the time when we actually played them during the season. Might be difficult to get hold of the league tables though.

OTBC

[/quote]

Top 8 : P11 W6 D0 L5  18 points at an average of 1.636 per game. Over the season this would mean 75 points and a likely play off place.

Middle 8: P17 W3 D5 L9  14 points at an average of .823 per game. Over the season this would mean 38 points and certain relegation.

Bottom 8: P12 W6 D3 L3 21 points at an average of 1.75 per game. Over the season this would mean 81 points and a certain play off place.

I''m not sure these figures mean anything at all to be honest. IMO after 46 games we are where we deserve to be whatever teams we pick up the points against.

 

[/quote]

I agree, of course we deserve to be where we are after 46 games, but it shows the same pattern and it doesnt explain why our record against the average sides is stopping us challenging!

[/quote]

I agree it doesn''t explain why this happens, our record when we play sides from the middle 8 is awful!

It could just be a quirk I guess. When I get time I''ll check it out a bit more and see if we can make better sense of it.

 

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Last season (position of teams when we played them) :-

Top 8 : P17 W5 D2 L10 Pts17 - at an average of 1 point per game - 46 points in a season and certain relegation.

Middle 8 : P12 W6 D1 L5 Pts 19 at an average of 1.58 per game - 73 points in a season and an outside chance of play offs.

Bottom 8 : P17 W7 D5 L5 Pts 26 at an average of 1.53 per game - 70 points in a season and the slightest chance of play offs.

I am still not sure what we can learn from these stats. Last season we did best against the middle 8!

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

Last season (position of teams when we played them) :-

Top 8 : P17 W5 D2 L10 Pts17 - at an average of 1 point per game - 46 points in a season and certain relegation.

Middle 8 : P12 W6 D1 L5 Pts 19 at an average of 1.58 per game - 73 points in a season and an outside chance of play offs.

Bottom 8 : P17 W7 D5 L5 Pts 26 at an average of 1.53 per game - 70 points in a season and the slightest chance of play offs.

I am still not sure what we can learn from these stats. Last season we did best against the middle 8!

 

[/quote]

Typical Norwich

Consistently Inconsistent!!!

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