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ZLF

Defence - illogical scapegoats are us.

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After conceeding two goals last night with most people first choice central partnership I decided to while away 30 mins or so looking at the stats of each pair.  Including last nights game

Pair               Games         Mins per goal conceeded            Points won per game

Doc/Dion         2                     90                                                2

Doc/Shax         15                  84                                                1.3

Dion /Shax      10                   64                                                1

Doc Flem         3                    38                                                0.4

Shax Flem         3                    27                                              0.4 

 

Individually

 

Doc               20                  72                                               1.1

Dion               12                   67                                             1.1

Shax               28                  63                                              1.0          

 

As far as pairs are concerned the doc/shax partnership is 30% more effective at stopping goals going in that dion/shax and wins 30% more points.

Individually Docs  conceeds fewer goals per min when played as a central defender than any other defender and we win as many points per game.   In addition as Nutty N has pointed out before Doc conceeds fewer free kicks, fewer free kicks leading to goals and passes more successfully in comparison to the two competitors for his place. 

Looking at these stats overall there isnt too much difference between the players but what is clear is that Doc is not the scapegoat he is made out to be this year and Dion does not suddenly make the defence significantly more secure as is often opined on here.  

Statistically we should play Doc and Dion.

 

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I like the attempt to rationalise a difficult question, but the problem is that the Doc/Dion combo only consists of 2 games and you need many many more to see a pattern or any consistency- even 10 is probably at the bottom end of what you need.

However my own view is that all 3 are much of a muchness. At least DD gives us another option at corners/free kicks and is a leader on the pitch. Doc''s main problem is his tendency to miss the runners and foul centrally outside the area, Shax his positioning and marking. Its worrying thinking of those two trying to hold out at the Bridge this Sat.

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It''s an interesting read, but I would make two point which adds uncertainty.1) It might be revealing to see which opponents scored against us. Last night was in some ways fairly typical of the goals we concede - from set pieces and by defenders. Our centre backs seem to be able to "bottle up" even good strikers, and as the full backs are on the line presumably, we are looking at defensive qualities, or lack of them, of midfielders and strikers back to defend. We have gifted so many goals scored by unmarked, or inadequately marked, opponents ate set pieces.There may be a pattern here, but Brown, who seems to have been slow to mark their captain last night, has played only two or three games, and clearly Hux and Earnie tend not to be back marking strapping central defenders.2) Much could depend on the other players picked on the day - Camp and Marshall seem to be accepted as better at crosses than Gallacher, and Drury may be a different sort of fullback to Lappin. Above all, the composition of the midfield must have a bearing. Dickson is big enough to challenge strikers and dfenders in the air. Does his efficiency vary? Clearly a midifeld containing Croft and Eagle may have less to contribute in the air defensively.I am not challenging your findings, which I find interesting, but merely suggesting that things are more complicated. Which combinations of CB played against better opposing strikers, and how do they rate home and away and with different combinations in the rest of the team?

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One other small point that this analysis supports Zipper, is that Flem''s usefulness to the team had sadly passed and there was no case for keeping him even as a squad member.

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Statistically you are correct, however, Doc and Dion have only played 2 matches together, as a partnership would they have the neccesary pace to deal with forwards ?  Maybe Grant feels that Shackell is a better long-term prospect than Doc, and that match time with Dion will improve him as a player.

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Agreed CJF - we have not conceeded a 3 or 4 with Dion at the back - but then again since WBA away he hasnt kept a clean sheet either - the last one we had was a shacks and doc combination which happens more often with them then any other pair.

My ending paragraph agrees with Tumbleweed - in that individually there isnt much to chose between the players.  You can say Dion offers more options but it hasnt really translated on the pitch where it counts as a defender - goals conceeded.  But as a pair Doc and shax are noticably better than dion and shax.

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[quote user="blahblahblah"]Maybe Grant feels that Shackell is a better long-term prospect than Doc, and that match time with Dion will improve him as a player.
[/quote]

Another thing to consider is the Doc''s Mammoth salary...   A serious consideration when thinking about extending his contract this season.  Is he value or can we draft in someone just as good much cheaper??

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All three are of similar standard;  with the exception of the appalling defensive contribution our midfield has made the next biggest influencer in the number of goals we have conceeded is the constant changes in what the first choice defensive partnership is.  

The key to this position is about understanding between the pair;  so in 30 odd games we have had 5 combinations and I think only one occassion has a pair lasted more than 5 consecutive games;  where is the long term planning in that?

As far as shax is concerned there comes a time when we must recognise his potential has been realised or not;  Doc has outperformed him each season he has been here so far and is doing so again this season - there are only 3 years between them and while Doc is unlikely to improve at his age nor is shax likely to improve signifincatly from where he is now either. 

If there is no outstanding candidate we have to allow a partnership to develop from those that are likely to play a 50 odd games next season - and that means shax and doc,  until we buy in the summer

 

 

 

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The truth is that there isn''t much to choose between all three. Dion''s experience and leadership possibly puts him on top but his age and the need to build a partnership for the future counteract that.

I still believe we should continue with Doherty and Shackell who I think are good enough to get us up this league. But we should also buy another centreback in the summer. Not "a has been" but another Chris Brown type player, a player young and hungry but with experience at this level or better. Then let the best pair win!

I am not a great Doherty fan, I don''t think he will ever be a canary great or anything, I just don''t think he is as bad as posters make out. Did anyone else notice Shackell give away yet another freekick on the edge of the box in about the 90th min last night? What if that had been "The Doc"??

 

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"Statistically, Gary is the strongest link, but will the team selections reflect that fact?" I hope not! This is as tricky a conundrum as the ''where to play hucks'' question! It''s interesting to kick about though especially from this angle that you''ve approached it from ZLF.It''s easy to blame things on the Doc and i still don''t rate him for his (and shax to be fair) inability to command and marshall his defensive troops. And I find it very hard to believe that he concedes the least free kicks and the least free kicks leading to goals. I can think of one right now, v Plymouth! I don''t want to become another boo boy just jumping on the donkerty bandwagon, really i don''t, but i''m afraid everytime it rolls by i just can''t help jumping aboard! Why is that?!Either way, we can''t use the words ''long term'' and ''Dion'' in the same sentance, we need competition, and we need that illusive commanding centre back. How about a cross border raid for Jason de Vos?

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As I''ve always said...Shackell is a weaker link than the Doc. Unfortunately so many people have it in for the Doc.

I still think we need at least 1 new centreback, ideally 2.

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[quote user="a1canary"] And I find it very hard to believe that he concedes the least free kicks and the least free kicks leading to goals. I can think of one right now, v Plymouth!

I don''t want to become another boo boy just jumping on the donkerty bandwagon, really i don''t, but i''m afraid everytime it rolls by i just can''t help jumping aboard! Why is that?!

[/quote]

I may have missed some but I think these are the goals we have conceded from free kicks:-

Leeds away: penalty Croft. Southend away: Free kick Safri. QPR away: Free kick Shackell. Stoke away: Penalty Ashdown. Leicester home: Free kick Shackell. Southampton away: Free kick Etuhu. Plymouth Home: Free kicks Doherty and Dublin. Blackpool away: Free Kick Dublin.

It should be said that the concensus of opinion was that the freekicks given away by Safri against Southend and Doherty against Plymouth were refereeing errors.

According to the official Football League stats Safri and Etuhu give away 50% more freekicks than Doherty and Shackell.

Robinson, Safri and Shackell have 6 yellow cards Etuhu now has 5 where as Doherty has 3. Of course Doherty had a red card against Burnley.

If Doherty is really more guilty of fouling in dangerous areas then he must be bribing the refs too.

I always seem to be drawn into these discussions to defend "The Doc" every time they roll by! In truth I find him at times to be infuriating too. He doesn''t inspire confidence because his body language is awful. He always looks like a mistake waiting to happen or a foul waiting to happen. When they do happen we are waiting for them and we remember them.

The crazy thing is that in all the time people were slating Doherty goals were being given away cheaply by the last line of our defence and yet that culprit never got the same criticisms from the fans.

Sometimes it would be more honest to say "I just don''t like him"!

 

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dion can be caught out on the floor - terrific in the air.shacks is quick and is classy - prone to lapse in concentration.doc, is good in the air, but appears lumbering at times.in short - form of doc since back from injury is way below the standard he set last season - and the required standard for city.  shacks is brilliant on his good days, but can look error prone too - needs to get consistancy under his belt - also not helped by illness/injury over last 2 seasons.  dion organises well and leads from the front, but is probably below the standard required to mount a realistic promotion challange. solution - hopes shacks gets more consistent, ditch the doc and dion for back up/bench duties next season - get a proven partner for shacks with top experience to guide him, like dion does. i see malky was onto his old tricks the weekend, holding players etc.  great result against west ham away though - wot - a clean sheet too!  how would any of our pairings do aganist the likes of west ham at home?  have we properly replaced malky??

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Nothing much to say about your stats other than whoever we play we are unable to keep clean sheets with any regularity. Its been a problem ever since Worthy turfed out Malky without getting a suitable replacement.

The basis of a good side is a mean defence. We aint got one.

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[quote user="a1canary"]"Statistically, Gary is the strongest link, but will the team selections reflect that fact?"
I hope not! 
And I find it very hard to believe that he concedes the least free kicks and the least free kicks leading to goals. I can think of one right now, v Plymouth!

[/quote]

 

That was one A1,  but Doc won the ball and it was a poor ref decision as grant pointed out post game.   All I want is equal lambasting of all defenders - there isnt a gnats chuff between them all yet one gets pilloried and the other praised.   In teh same game you mention A1 the second free kick goal came from a mad rush of blood from Dion yet that is conveniently over looked.... 

And had we conceeded 2 corner goals with Doc starting last night I can see posts now - yet there were none today despite conceeding 2 goals to a lower league team while at home. 

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its no surprise to me that Dafri gives away the most free kicks, this is because he breaks play up tyeh most and haults attacks - normally before they get too close to the box to be dangerous, or the attack is already in a dangerous stage.  Etuhu puts the odd late lunge in for his fouls.

I dunno what it is about Donk, I don''t feel he is strong enough or good enough in the air.  The problem is somewhere cos these last two seasons and the premiership season, we have conceded more goals than anywhen in the last 9 years!!

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