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Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB

Why I think we will be relegated.

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I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]Who ever we play they will either be scrapping to get promoted /playoffs no matter where we are in the league as the division is so tight not really a case to base relegation on.

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]

I agree. While we have added some very "limited" signings....many it seems expect the other clubs around us to stand still while we surge upwards. They too though have added quality to their squads....and in some cases much more superior to our own.

We are in free-fall...while others are improving fast. Looking up is better than looking behind in a relegation scrap....and do we really think we have the guts for a fight? I don''t.

 

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Well, they say the league table never lies and wherever you finish you deserve to finish!

You are not alone in fearing relegation SOB. Read the columnists on this very website and many feel the same as you.

"Fan''s Eye" Adam Aiken in his "View From The Stands" thinks we could achieve 53 points which should be enough however a couple of unexpected defeats could see us relegated.

A Dose Of Realism from "Voice Of The Fans" Richard Balls suggests that our natural bedfellows are those clubs beneath us in the table.

To counteract this Peter Grant is still talking up the possibility of playoffs and Premiership football next season.

The Bookies have 9 teams now at shorter odds to get relegated than Norwich, so they don''t really buy into this relegation theory YET. Anybody who seriously thinks we will get relegated should get some of the 15/1 that''s available now. I''m seriously considering having a punt on the 17/1 available for piswich to get relegated. In my opinion there is more chance of that happening.

The way I see it we have seen signs of improvement in the last two games, Peter Grant has at last had the chance to start putting his stamp on the team. Yes we miss Earnshaw because any club would miss a goalscorer of his quality but we still have the players to turn this season around. Of course this could all be just another false dawn, but I believe we will see our team start to climb the table now. I think we could finish with a points total in the high 60''s and maybe more if we get on a good run and the confidence grows. And I don''t think our remaining fixtures are as difficult as we imagine them to be. Colchester away is always going to be harder than Birmingham at home, like Grant say''s those top teams are going to get edgy.

Anyway I have nailed my colours to the mast now, what does everyone else think?

 

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]

Have to disagree with you SOB, sometimes, City mess up against the ''lesser opponents, but beat higher placed teams.

We also don''t know who Grant might bring in on loan, do we?.

I also now believe there are at least 3 teams who are worse than us, Leeds, QPR and Luton, and on that basis alone, I back Grant''s boys to keep us safe.

OTBC.

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You may not be to far wide of the mark , some people have got very carried away because of a win against the poorest side in the division and that was a come from behind struggle . With some sides at the bottom playing this weekend and us facing a near certain defeat at Preston Tuesday things might be looking very very dodgy in a weeks time .

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SofB wrote, "utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise"

 

Actually, its our inability to stop conceding goals (since our championship winning promotion season) that is the biggest problem.

 

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[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]

I can''t disagree with your logic SOB. It would be interesting to compare our run-in with that of the other strugglers however. If some of them have as tough a run-in as we have we should be ok. I think any of the bottom teams that can put a run of five or six games without defeat together between now and the end of the season will survive comfortably.

Looking below us I can''t see QPR, Barnsley, Luton or Hull putting together any form at all. A few scraped wins each maybe but we should be more than capable of keeping ahead of that pack. Like you I was worried by the lack of firepower but I think the momentum we''re starting to build-up could be enough to raise the confidence levels and encourage others to have a pop more often.

However, if we lose to Blackpool, confidence could turn again! It''s going to be an interesting next month though and how we handle it will determine whether we''re genuine relegation candidates or mid-table ditherers just flirting with the idea.

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Wiz - You could be right, it certainly is the sort of thing we do best, beat the really good sides but lose to sides we really should beat. You may also be right about QPR, Leeds and Luton, trouble is we have already played Leeds and QPR twice and maybe it would have been better if we had played Luton on Saturday as I would have fancied us to win, but the law of sod will dictate that we lose the rearranged match (and the same could go for the games againt Burnley and Derby)

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[quote user="1st Wizard"]

[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]

Have to disagree with you SOB, sometimes, City mess up against the ''lesser opponents, but beat higher placed teams.

We also don''t know who Grant might bring in on loan, do we?.

I also now believe there are at least 3 teams who are worse than us, Leeds, QPR and Luton, and on that basis alone, I back Grant''s boys to keep us safe.

OTBC.

[/quote]

Thats exactly my position WIZ. While relegation remains possible I do not think it likely.

You also forgot to mention Barnsley. They look certainties to me.

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Don''t forget that Burnley, Ipswich, Coventry and Leicester are all only three or fewer points ahead of us as well, and we have at least one game in hand over all of them. Those sides, as well as those below us, are all there because their results over the season so far have been fairly poor. Is there any reason to think that they can scrape the points needed for safety any better than we can?

I''m certainly not getting carried away after a win against the poorest team in the leage (although they did beat beat the team six places higher than us in the table on Saturday, so can''t be that much of a walkover), but have seen enough encouraging signs recently to be more relaxed about the threat of relegation for now. I''d be stunned beyond belief if we were to mount a serious charge for that last playoff spot, but I reckon mid-table obscurity beckons more strongly than relegation now. What I want to see is a some long-absent grit and passion form the players and a return to form for the likes of Doherty/Etuhu/Drury to build a bit of momentum and optimism for next season.

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I think we''ll be ok. Obviously we''re not safe yet, we''re not until the maths says so. But I don''t see us really struggling. I''ve never once thought we''d go down and it remains that way.

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I still believe we are relying on other teams to be worse than us.  Our narrow in over Leeds only showed we are generally as poor as the rest. In this context, Grant''s talk of promotion is silly. We could be in with a shock in the coming months.

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We do have tough games but with so many points left to play for so will our relegation rivals.   Wether we survive is in our hands and we should be able to get enough wins to get to 53 points - but we have to stick with the best we have as a team.

Like others have said I do think there are 4-5 teams who are significantly worse than us and that together with the likes of Hux up front I and fairly sure if not confident that we will beat the drop. 

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[quote user="1st Wizard"]

[quote user="Sons of Boadicea"]I fear that despite the euphoria of our win against a very poor Leeds Utd side there is still a distinct possibility that we will get relegated, why you ask, just look at our run in I say, we have some very difficult games against teams that are either scrapping to get promoted/into the play offs or are scrapping to get out of relegation trouble themselves. At the time of writing we still have not found an adequate replacement for Earnie and believe that utlimately it will be our inability to score goals that will lead to our demise.[/quote]

Have to disagree with you SOB, sometimes, City mess up against the ''lesser opponents, but beat higher placed teams.

We also don''t know who Grant might bring in on loan, do we?.

I also now believe there are at least 3 teams who are worse than us, Leeds, QPR and Luton, and on that basis alone, I back Grant''s boys to keep us safe.

OTBC.

[/quote]

While I agree with SOB that relegation is still a very real threat... it was a very big and much needed win against Leeds (that may not of made us safe but really, really made things difficult for them).

Wiz''s point that in all likelihood there will be 3 teams that find themselves with less points than ourselves (with so many teams struggling around us) will  bve our main hope for survival I think...  whatever happens I do not think that we will be able to say that we are safe until at least 2 or 3 games to go (around the time we play Ipswich at home).

 

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I think there''s no doubt we are better than most, if not all, of the teams beneath us.

What concerns me, however, is our fixture list. Our home games - where you''d normally expect us to get the bulk of our points - include four of the top five; a local derby; Coventry (with Andy Marshall and Leon McKenzie coming back with points to prove); and Stoke, who beat us 5-0 at their place.

And while I agree that Barnsley, Hull and Luton are all poor teams, they will be up for it when we visit them.

We should still be OK, but only if we realise that we''re still in the mix and not safe yet. Complacency could cost us dear.

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I think Snakepit has identified my concern well. It is all very well saying "we are better than x,y,z", and I do not disagree with that sentiment, but we all know fotball is a "funny old game" and no respector of reputations (look at the teams that have subk to the third tier of English football in the past and no doubt they all though they were "to god to go down". The danger is after this weekend we could be only a couple of points off the relegation places with a very tricky trip to PNE to come. After the trip to PNE we could potentially be sucked into the relegation mire, albeit with three games in hand. Personally I would rather have the "points on the board" than the three games in hand (two potentially difficult away games and home to the side currently top of the league). The critical thing will be for PG to get his tactics spot on for these games, as the first hour against Blackpool showed if he does not do this we look an unbalanced and ordinary side. I refer to the "balls thread by 1st Wiz, I hope he is right as we are going to need them over the next few weeks.

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This thread has been running a while now and most people still seem very fearful of relegation. Am I alone in believing we will be comfortably safe way before the end of the season??

 

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Nutty Nigel - The very fact that you are "nutty" makes it hard to take your belief seriously[:D]. To be fair I hope you are right and there is no reason for us not to be comfortably safe, my fear stems from the fact that we could get sucked into the relegation mire for no other reason than we have had games postponed/we are still in the FA Cup, and what that could do from a purely psychological point of view.

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SOB - I know I''ve lost my marbles but you must be a couple of waves short of a shipwreck to suggest "there''s no reason for us not to be comfortably safe" and then starting a thread stating why you think we will be relegated!! [:)] [:D] [;)] [B] [Y]

 

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We are not out of the woods yet........We have a blunt machete to chop our way through the thicket, until we replenish our empty chainsaw - with high octane petrol.

I remember our 1st relegation from the Prem..........and where we were at Christmas that season...........The rest is history.

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Nutty Nigel - I am not "nutty", I just acknowledged your point of view (I know being reasonable is seen as a weakness on this message board), but to be absolutely clear about this I think we will be relegated because circumstances will conspire against us (three games in hand rather than points on the board) and we have a tough looking run in, not because I think we are crap.

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SOB - I am a reasonable poster, even though some unreasonable posters don''t think I am [;)] Being reasonable can''t possibly be a weakness.

I also acknowledge your point of view, I see where you are coming from but I don''t share your pessimism. I will be absolutely clear too. I think we are about to hit a run of good form, and during a run of good form when confidence is high games can''t come fast enough. Our run in is hard but so is everybody elses. Yes we do have to play the top three but these are all home games.

I know I''m nutty but I hope in a reasonable way. I have no wish to fall out with a tough guy who has horns on his bonnett! I''ll just stick to upsetting those scrawny chickens!!! [:D][8-|]

 

 

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[quote user="Mello Yello"]

I remember our 1st relegation from the Prem..........and where we were at Christmas that season...........The rest is history.

[/quote]

I remember it too Mello. I think the difference is that this season the board and the manager have been busy trying to stop the rot where as in that season nothing was done to stop the slide.

shhhhhhhhhh.. don''t tell anyone cuz it won''t go down well! [;)]

 

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