Should we be alarmed or encouraged by the goals we concede?

[chicken 3,139]

1 hour ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Nonsense. A team looking to go up scores goals and keeps clean sheets. 
That’s football.

Well... more of one than the other generally. We conceded a fair amount in Farke's first promotion season.

Shef Utd didn't score as many, but they conceded less.

[Capt. Pants 5,160]

Depends what you want really. If you can't get auto promotion where you can get promoted by beating teams 4-2 or it's play-offs where you have to grind out results, which invariably means keeping a clean sheet.

We've left it too late for the autos this season but we have to look at erradicating silly errors and gift goals if we're going for play-off glory.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,899]

3 minutes ago, chicken said:

Well... more of one than the other generally. We conceded a fair amount in Farke's first promotion season.

Shef Utd didn't score as many, but they conceded less.

Farkes second promotion we conceded 36 goals. The second lowest in the division. 
 

Pick a year and prove a point. 
 

 

[Commonsense 836]

41 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Only 3 times since 2015 (us) has a team conceding a goal in the play-off final been promoted.

Never has a team been promoted in the play off final without scoring more goals than the opposition ( if you include penalty shootouts)!

[chicken 3,139]

7 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Farkes second promotion we conceded 36 goals. The second lowest in the division. 
 

Pick a year and prove a point. 
 

 

You've proven my point. It's not always both, which was your claim.

First Farke promotion season we scored the most amount of goals in the league, we were top goal scorers. But only 3 teams in the top ten conceded more. We weren't even inside the top five meanest defenses. We conceded 57 goals. Shef Utd in 2nd, just 41, same as Middlesbrough in 7th. Difference is they scored fewer goals, a lot less in Middlesbrough's case.

Farkes 2nd promotion season we were not top scorers, that was Brentford in 3rd. And we were not so far ahead of those behind us. We only conceded 36 but again, we weren't the tightest, that was Watford with 30 in 2nd.

I suspect there is some sort of mathmatical, statistic based system which is far more suited than a plain goals for or goals against is better.

The obvious thing to say is conceding less than a goal per game is generally going to give you a good fighting chance. Something like scoring 1.5 goals per game is also going to give you pretty good odds. If by chance you can do both, great.

It generally looks like a goal difference of +20 is a good bet to get you top 6.

Right now we are almost at 2 goals per game, terrific. That's good. 27 against is conceding over 1.5 per game which is not so good.

That said, it's not the same players making the same errors every week which, IMHO, does suggest it's teething problems more than anything else.

Slimane, for example, is a player who has been in and out of the side with injury. 18 games isn't really that many for a large number of new and old players to bed in with a new head coach and coaching team, new direction, new tactics, and the sporting directors first proper transfer window.

Time folks, time. Enjoy the win and cut them some slack.

 

[Canary73 338]

1 hour ago, Fen Canary said:

Alarmed. We can’t keep giving up a goal a game due to unforced errors and expect to win matches. Sometimes you just have to clear your lines and compete for the second ball, always playing it short simply invites too much pressure 

Agreed and the game plan for any visiting side is ' press them high and they'll give you chances'. If you are prepared to mix it up by kicking it long or getting it forward, the away team has to react to it. Luton are down there for a reason and are still plying their 'rough them up and commit cynical fouls' tactics they used last year. Fortunately, we had enough to beat them but only when we changed personnel and went on the front foot. Better sides won't give you chances and needing to score 3 goals to win games at home will cost you or will mean you need to win a sizable number of away games to be in the play off mix. The goals in the last two games I've seen live (Bristol C & Luton) have be scored by our creativity or our defensive lapses. It gets the crowd on edge. If its not the plan to go out and play that way then the management and players need to sort it out.  Better sides will see games out 1-0 or 2-0 - not as entertaining but efficient.

[hogesar 10,965]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Would encourage people to watch our third goal again. It starts with the tippy-tappy passing that infuriates people so much, but when Luton are sucked in, it creates an opening for Duffy to charge forward, leading directly to the goal.

We almost scored another soon afterwards when Núñez won the ball in our area, faffed around with it a bit, then played a couple of tippy-tappy passes, before breaking out of defence, sparking a great move.

It's obviously high-risk as the players get used to it, and because we're asking Championship-level players to do it. But the rewards are huge.

Worth noting as well that the times we gave the ball away were likely partly down to a little bit of build up problems. Stacey has been excellent these past few games but building up from deep isn't his talent, equally Fisher being right footed on the left meant that we weren't quite as fluid at times. Put Doyle LB and Cordoba CB and we probably don't have Slimane and McLean under the same intense pressure as we can break through the press a bit quicker.

But ultimately you're right. We're creating (or perhaps that should be taking) more of the chances we create this way than give it away. It's a good watch too. 

 

[C.I.D 366]

Oh,how I long for those Hughton days 😔

[hogesar 10,965]

26 minutes ago, chicken said:

You've proven my point. It's not always both, which was your claim.

First Farke promotion season we scored the most amount of goals in the league, we were top goal scorers. But only 3 teams in the top ten conceded more. We weren't even inside the top five meanest defenses. We conceded 57 goals. Shef Utd in 2nd, just 41, same as Middlesbrough in 7th. Difference is they scored fewer goals, a lot less in Middlesbrough's case.

Farkes 2nd promotion season we were not top scorers, that was Brentford in 3rd. And we were not so far ahead of those behind us. We only conceded 36 but again, we weren't the tightest, that was Watford with 30 in 2nd.

I suspect there is some sort of mathmatical, statistic based system which is far more suited than a plain goals for or goals against is better.

The obvious thing to say is conceding less than a goal per game is generally going to give you a good fighting chance. Something like scoring 1.5 goals per game is also going to give you pretty good odds. If by chance you can do both, great.

It generally looks like a goal difference of +20 is a good bet to get you top 6.

Right now we are almost at 2 goals per game, terrific. That's good. 27 against is conceding over 1.5 per game which is not so good.

That said, it's not the same players making the same errors every week which, IMHO, does suggest it's teething problems more than anything else.

Slimane, for example, is a player who has been in and out of the side with injury. 18 games isn't really that many for a large number of new and old players to bed in with a new head coach and coaching team, new direction, new tactics, and the sporting directors first proper transfer window.

Time folks, time. Enjoy the win and cut them some slack.

 

Just for note, our goals conceded looked good in that second promotion season but Tim Krul also had one of the best ever seasons this level has ever seen. He saved shots he statistically shouldn't have done quire regularly.

 

[Big Vince 432]

Norwich City have been a goals against club since the days of John Bond. Only on rare occasions have they had quality at the back.

Top flight:

Woods, Watson, Bruce

Linighan

Newsome

Tier 2:

Flem, Malky, Drury

 

 

[Addick/Canary 181]

It's taken some time, but there it is at last - STATS!

[JonnyJonnyRowe 1,056]

1 hour ago, TheGoogler said:

I have taken the approach this season that we are in transition and am not worrying about where we are in the table, conceding goals or making mistakes. I'm just enjoying the ride. I have to say - it's great. 

As much as I truly admire just living in the moment and enjoying this Kevin Keeganesque madness, and happy to get on board with that... there's no chance we have Sainz next season if we don't go up.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,148]

2 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

By which I mean the fact a large number of them are highly avoidable.

on the one hand, we are not being opened up regularly by great play from the opposition. We are generally dominating games or at least have parity. You could take the view that these errors that seem to lead to most of the goals we concede (whether loose passes, not clearing it or just George Long) can be reduced over time.

on the other hand they do keep happening. 
 

Thoughts? 

Personally, I'd be more worried about systemic errors than individual lapses. The former is a failure in coaching, while the latter is individual lapses that are down to the individual. I just put it down to a reality of the level of players we have to work with. 

Edited November 30, 2024 by littleyellowbirdie

[Commonsense 836]

14 minutes ago, Big Vince said:

Norwich City have been a goals against club since the days of John Bond. Only on rare occasions have they had quality at the back.

Top flight:

Woods, Watson, Bruce

Linighan

Newsome

Tier 2:

Flem, Malky, Drury

 

 

In our most successful league season ever, when we finished 3rd, we ended with a negative goal diffence. The highest any premier league team has ever finished with that record.

[Big Vince 432]

1 hour ago, Coneys Knee said:

I don’t care that we concede so long as we continue scoring like we are. Football is about entertainment and I love watching us score goals. Give me a 4-2 win over a 2-0 win any day. Long May it continue.

Absolute garbage. Football is about winning major trophies. Keegan won nothing. Paisley and Ferguson won heaps.

Even Ipswich have got three major trophies.

Edited November 30, 2024 by Big Vince

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,899]

There was that other season when we did or didn’t score more or less goals then some or all of the other teams . 
 

There . That proves I know more than you lot. 
 

 

[Big Vince 432]

3 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

In our most successful league season ever, when we finished 3rd, we ended with a negative goal diffence. The highest any premier league team has ever finished with that record.

Well that is something to be ashamed of. I fail to see how it is laudworthy.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,899]

1 minute ago, Big Vince said:

Well that is something to be ashamed of. I fail to see how it is laudworthy.

Laudworthy is a made up word

[Big Vince 432]

1 minute ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Laudworthy is a made up word

Good. Nice to be inventive, except at the back, where less tappy tippy wouldn't go amiss.

[C.I.D 366]

4 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Laudworthy is a made up word

I think he meant Lord Worthy (after a previous NCFC manager)😉

[Big Vince 432]

10 minutes ago, C.I.D said:

I think he meant Lord Worthy (after a previous NCFC manager)😉

You should indeed laud Worthy for it was he who unitised Flem, Malky, Drury and the man with the lungs.

*Unitised: made into effective unit 

Edited November 30, 2024 by Big Vince

[PurpleCanary 6,466]

13 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Laudworthy is a made up word

I don't often come to Big Vince's defence but I am not averse to making up words, provided the meaning is clear. Not only is the meaning of "laudworthy" clear but it works as a single-word adjective where a longer adjectival phrase might be used.🤓

[chicken 3,139]

Just now, JonnyJonnyRowe said:

As much as I truly admire just living in the moment and enjoying this Kevin Keeganesque madness, and happy to get on board with that... there's no chance we have Sainz next season if we don't go up.

It's interesting, but I don't think we are Keeganesque in any deliberate sense. JHT and his team are clearly frustrated, and don't attempt to hide it, that we are conceding the way we are.

Having a good look at our results, we have conceded 2 or more goals in 10 of our 18 games this season. We have 2 clean sheets. We have only won twice when conceding 2 or more goals - which isn't that unusual a statistic.

Our biggest problem at the moment I would say, has been the draws. 7 draws. Of those, we have scored 2 or more goals in four of those fixtures. Three 2-2 results and a 3-3. That's 9 goals in 4 games and we have 4pts. That's a lot of scoring effort for little return.

You can see why JHT mentions this after games and apologises for sounding negative as he is happy with the win.

That said, I agree. I expected nothing this season apart from it being a learning one for the head coach, his coaching team and the squad, not to mention JHT's relationship with Knapper and what that gives us on the pitch. That's before we bring in Attanasio and the NG. So much change, calling it a transitional season almost seems to hide just how much is going on behind the scenes! My only hope was that we'd build a decent platform to build on next season and we wouldn't get drawn into a relegation slug. Exceeding that so far. Anyone with expectations of winning the league or even comfortably punching weight in play-off places for most of the season were always setting their expectations far too high.

[Mr.Carrow 394]

We either try to play football and play out from the back or we don't. If we do (and our footballing tradition suggests we should be happy to) we have to accept occasional mistakes or good pressing/tackles from the opposition. Especially with players still settling in or struggling to gain full fitness as is the case with Slimane.

[Jason Shackell’s Limp Tack 134]

2 hours ago, hogesar said:

I know it's not fashionable in football nowadays, but that was a lot of our attitude under Lambert and it's the only time we were good to watch at the top level in a good number of years.

It may not be long-term sustainable but it's great entertainment.

I certainly remember that in the championship, but our style under Lambert was direct and actually pretty pragmatic. We weren't Pullis ball, far from it but, I do seem to remember pissing a few off. Helped with Holt up front as an outlet  I'm loving Hoffball at the moment, and will enjoy each game as it comes, but I'm not not sure how sustainable this style would be, if and (I hope) when we get there.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,899]

11 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I don't often come to Big Vince's defence but I am not averse to making up words, provided the meaning is clear. Not only is the meaning of "laudworthy" clear but it works as a single-word adjective where a longer adjectival phrase might be used.🤓

Lord Purple ? 

[Commonsense 836]

39 minutes ago, Big Vince said:

Well that is something to be ashamed of. I fail to see how it is laudworthy.

I personally am not ashamed of finishing 3rd in the premier league. Who said it was laudworthy . (Sic)? It was merely stating a fact.

[PurpleCanary 6,466]

13 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Lord Purple ? 

You are demoting me to a mere Lord?!😍

[Big Vince 432]

9 hours ago, Commonsense said:

I personally am not ashamed of finishing 3rd in the premier league. Who said it was laudworthy . (Sic)? It was merely stating a fact.

Negative goal differences are usually associated with teams in the bottom half of the league so to finish third with a negative goal difference is an embarrassment because it suggests you are not worthy of such a lofty position.

[canarybubbles 2,212]

2 minutes ago, Big Vince said:

Negative goal differences are usually associated with teams in the bottom half of the league so to finish third with a negative goal difference is an embarrassment because it suggests you are not worthy of such a lofty position.

Or perhaps it suggests a team whose coach tells them to take risks and really go for it when they fall behind on the basis that a 7-1 defeat (Blackburn) is zero points, the same as a 2-1 defeat. 

Did you support Hughton when he seemed satisfied to lose 2-0 rather than take risks to turn the game around?