NCFC Data Scientist Insight

[Yellow and Green 352]

Happened to come across this podcast on Youtube. It's an interview with Sam Radford, one of the data scientists at Norwich. It's an interesting listen into an area of the club that doesn't often get much exposure.

If you want to get straight to the Norwich chat, skip to the 20 minute mark.

 

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

Just to bump this up as it is an interesting interview.

The queen of modern football analytics, Sarah Rudd, has described Norwich as having 'one of the most exciting projects in football analytics'. Will be interesting to see who is appointed the Head of Analytics to replace John Iga as this is obviously an area MA is really focused on, as is Ben Knapper who started his career in football in data analytics. 

[Yellow and Green 352]

Thanks @Bethnal Yellow and Green. Any idea why we'd be more exciting than the clubs with mega money, Brighton and Brentford etc?

I'm sure it's MA led but why are we onto something that the big boys can't tap into?

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

18 minutes ago, Yellow and Green said:

Thanks @Bethnal Yellow and Green. Any idea why we'd be more exciting than the clubs with mega money, Brighton and Brentford etc?

I'm sure it's MA led but why are we onto something that the big boys can't tap into?

I think it is exciting as it is just starting now. I doubt Norwich will do anything beyond what Brighton and Brentford are doing, but Norwich are at the beginning of the journey (or a couple of steps down the path) and that is intrinsically more exciting that something that is fully formed. (Also, potentially a little bias from Sarah Rudd as she and Ben Knapper worked together at Arsenal).

However, the fact there is a six person team at Norwich already is noteworthy, this is definitely larger than you would expect in the Championship. 

[repman 745]

43 minutes ago, Yellow and Green said:

Thanks @Bethnal Yellow and Green. Any idea why we'd be more exciting than the clubs with mega money, Brighton and Brentford etc?

I'm sure it's MA led but why are we onto something that the big boys can't tap into?

Obviously not Bethnal but Rudd would know Knapper from their time at Arsenal so I think there may be a bit of creative license there. No doubt though we will be looking to be similar to Brighton and Brentford as you mention.

I'd say the MA connection is probably one of the key drivers, there's a lot of smart data people in every club in the country, the issue is that their work is often ignored. The hope with Knapper coming in is that all of this will be pulling in the same direction. Attanasio's Brewers team are one of the smartest in baseball so it stands to reason he will want the same here. A lot of that will also manifest in off field stuff, instead of buying new players. People often will talk about us spending 750k on the soccerbot, now the effectiveness that I'm not sure but it's worth pointing out the Brewers spent $60 million to build a pitching lab a few years ago (also built a whole new training facility in the Dominican Republic for their young players). 

[Nuff Said 5,937]

Interesting, thanks @Yellow and Green, especially as it overlaps a little with what I see in my job (IT, not sport). One point that stood out for me was that US-based sports are years ahead, obviously relevant with our new majority owner.
 

Also the idea of chaos, and in football’s case, how the ref introduces it. I wonder whether anyone does analysis of officials’ performances and includes this in planning for games? “Chaos” seems to be code for “stuff we can’t turn into data and process” - or at least not yet. Football to me is inherently more “chaotic” than something like baseball, which must make it harder to turn into a deterministic model. Sam mentioned the free text section they allow in scouting reports which seems to cover this gap where data doesn’t capture performance, does this bridge a gap or invalidate what they do?
 

When Sam was talking about his time at Rotherham it made me wonder how smaller clubs can keep up - there will always be a level at which clubs don’t have the resources to do this sort of activity - will there come a growing divide between those who can afford it, and those who can’t? And if not, is it really of value? Marginal gains justify it if nothing else I guess.

[chicken 3,078]

3 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Interesting, thanks @Yellow and Green, especially as it overlaps a little with what I see in my job (IT, not sport). One point that stood out for me was that US-based sports are years ahead, obviously relevant with our new majority owner.
 

Also the idea of chaos, and in football’s case, how the ref introduces it. I wonder whether anyone does analysis of officials’ performances and includes this in planning for games? “Chaos” seems to be code for “stuff we can’t turn into data and process” - or at least not yet. Football to me is inherently more “chaotic” than something like baseball, which must make it harder to turn into a deterministic model. Sam mentioned the free text section they allow in scouting reports which seems to cover this gap where data doesn’t capture performance, does this bridge a gap or invalidate what they do?
 

When Sam was talking about his time at Rotherham it made me wonder how smaller clubs can keep up - there will always be a level at which clubs don’t have the resources to do this sort of activity - will there come a growing divide between those who can afford it, and those who can’t? And if not, is it really of value? Marginal gains justify it if nothing else I guess.

The smaller clubs bit will be the same as traditional scouting. Clubs will go for players that higher up clubs havent for whatever reason. Perhaps their stats were good two seasons ago, or one area isn't quite good enough. Or generally their stat levels are lower. Perhaps even youngsters who don't have a lot of stats to go on etc.

[Nuff Said 5,937]

29 minutes ago, chicken said:

The smaller clubs bit will be the same as traditional scouting. Clubs will go for players that higher up clubs havent for whatever reason. Perhaps their stats were good two seasons ago, or one area isn't quite good enough. Or generally their stat levels are lower. Perhaps even youngsters who don't have a lot of stats to go on etc.

That goes back to the free text allowed in scouting reports. Is that actually the “secret sauce”, the human element that spots a gem like Emi has potential beyond what his career stats might indicate? In the interview, Sam talked about the importance of talking to the coaching team about what they want in a player, but surely this already is catered for with scouts? Maybe what data gives you is the ability to quickly rule candidates in and out so you focus on the best opportunities.

[chicken 3,078]

On 07/09/2024 at 09:24, Nuff Said said:

That goes back to the free text allowed in scouting reports. Is that actually the “secret sauce”, the human element that spots a gem like Emi has potential beyond what his career stats might indicate? In the interview, Sam talked about the importance of talking to the coaching team about what they want in a player, but surely this already is catered for with scouts? Maybe what data gives you is the ability to quickly rule candidates in and out so you focus on the best opportunities.

Yeah, what I mean is, it'll end up cascading in the same way only it'll be about how good your data analysts AND souts are.

Moneball is a great movie to watch just to get the ideas behind it. I love how they pick up a retired pitcher and turn him into a first baseman due to his stats there.

It'd be like turning Pirlo from a no.10 into a deep lying playmaker.

[Nuff Said 5,937]

53 minutes ago, chicken said:

Yeah, what I mean is, it'll end up cascading in the same way only it'll be about how good your data analysts AND souts are.

Moneball is a great movie to watch just to get the ideas behind it. I love how they pick up a retired pitcher and turn him into a first baseman due to his stats there.

It'd be like turning Pirlo from a no.10 into a deep lying playmaker.

Moneyball is  one of those films I’ve always meant to watch but never got round to, I will make the effort (!).

[Bigbrenn 86]

15 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Moneyball is  one of those films I’ve always meant to watch but never got round to, I will make the effort (!). 

There's a statistical chance you will enjoy it but of course, many factors to bear in mind.