ricardo 7,751 Posted July 22 1 hour ago, Mr Angry said: The odds for Brexit-to Leave-was about a 25% chance a couple of days before the Referendum. Get on then, it sounds like free money. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 22 16 minutes ago, ricardo said: May not even happen. He had to agree to Bidens terms but now the shoe is on the other foot as its Harris who needs the exposure. Trump can wimp out, but that's exactly how it will be seen. Harris will endlessly mock him as a coward if he refuses to debate as originally agreed. Harris hardly needs exposure. There's not the remotest possibility that she will lack that for the next 4 months. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Worthy Nigelton 1,193 Posted July 22 5 hours ago, Comfortably numb said: She’s only just ahead of Biden in approval ratings and failed previously at her own parties primaries! Half the democrats don’t rate her and would get destroyed in a debate with Trump. But apart from that.. Whether she'll win or not is one thing, but she won't get destroyed by Trump in a debate. She's a prosecutor by trade I believe and Trump has many, many weaknesses. She's apparently a very intelligent woman who comes across as very warm in person... her weaknesses are whether she looks the part and whether she can deliver the types of speeches that get the people to vote for you. Being from California also doesn't help in the swing states. She's very popular on Wall Street apparently and huge contributions have already flooded in. This will be tight come election day, no doubt about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Worthy Nigelton 1,193 Posted July 22 3 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said: Only after the debate nonsense in which the democrats turned on him. The prior three years the Democrats had very clearly ignored his endless gaffes and issues. That's just not true, this has been said of Biden for ages now. He fell over on stage well over a year ago. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 22 2 minutes ago, Worthy Nigelton said: Whether she'll win or not is one thing, but she won't get destroyed by Trump in a debate. She's a prosecutor by trade I believe and Trump has many, many weaknesses. She's apparently a very intelligent woman who comes across as very warm in person... her weaknesses are whether she looks the part and whether she can deliver the types of speeches that get the people to vote for you. Being from California also doesn't help in the swing states. She's very popular on Wall Street apparently and huge contributions have already flooded in. This will be tight come election day, no doubt about it. Indeed! I'm sure she's well aware that she needs to negate the "California issue" so would expect her to be very wise in choosing her VP. Josh Shapiro or Roy Cooper look the most likely bets. I think you're right that this election has now become a very close contest. The VP debate may turn out to be far more important than normal, and Vance's extreme form of Christian fundamentalist nationalism may turn out to be a real problem for Trump. Trump has already been trying to row back on his promises to the evangelicals, and it is rumoured that he is already very angry with his VP's RNC speech. What couldn't be clearer is that this is the last thing Trump wanted to happen (something Piers Morgan has claimed Trump admitted in a personal phone call). Renewed hope for every Democrat and Trump hater; Interesting times ahead. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,561 Posted July 22 Is Obama going to back Michelle ? If so she is miles ahead in the polls of both Trump and Harris. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fen Canary 1,274 Posted July 22 5 hours ago, sonyc said: I think that's a fair enough criticism of those terms. You can probably talk about extreme ends of a spectrum of political ideas but an extreme position naturally (intentionally) tends not to focus on a huge centre ground. My description was a simple paraphrase of the words used by Reeves et al today. Perhaps the term 'progressive' is better? Then, it's also debatable whether even parts of the Reform manifesto could also be considered progressive (updating our health system being an example). By and large the labels are used to simply codify responses on here (RWNJs and Lefties) and on the whole people respond to what they think a poster is about rather than the content of the post. Left and right descriptives are inadequate for most of us. I will read your stuff with interest because it chimes with a lot of what I think (though I disagree on immigration and of course Brexit). Secondly, you are not dismissive or insulting like one or two posters. Real Buh ran a post (poll) years ago which indicated the areas which might make up one's overall position and how liberal people were on a whole range of societal issues. Quite a few so-called righties turned out moderate centre-left. Anyway, it's possibly for another debate on a different thread. As for Harris, I know very little about her (we used to get fantastic reports from @Surfer on US politics ....wonder if he might post again?). The mood around the US this morning seemed to be that the Democrats now might at least have a 'fighting chance'. I just wonder though if people have mostly already decided, regardless of Biden standing down. The polls indicate so. But there is definitely time for polls to close and odds to tighten. If you had placed a lay bet on Trump yesterday morning you'd definitely be in profit this morning.  I must admit I don’t follow yank politics too closely, to me it’s largely a circus won by whoever can raise the most money. My opinion on Harris’ chances is based on the bits I’ve read which suggest she isn’t too popular outside of the wealthy cohort of her party, the last time she ran she dropped out before even making the debate phase and speaking to a couple of yanks I know who don’t rate her. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Comfortably numb 18 Posted July 22 3 hours ago, horsefly said: Except they don't predict he will win comfortably. And we are still 4 months from the election where Trump was praying that it would be Biden that he is up against. As for Harris's public speaking being cringeworthy, I'll raise you ten times the cringe worthiness rating of Trump's rambling insane gaffe prone tripe. Even his own fans walked out of the last one it was so long and bad. You also seem to need reminding that Biden got 8 million more votes than Trump in 2020, and that despite all the Hunter Biden laptop shi*te. This time the US public will have a choice, not between two compromised old men with cognitive issues, but between a 20-years younger state prosecutor and a very old rambling criminal and rapist, whose own VP nomination previously described as the US version of Hit*ler. We'll see what that does to the polls in the coming weeks. Trump is already wetting himself about facing Harris in a debate  Context matters and 8m = 4.4% of the overall vote therefore definitely NOT a trouncing. You obviously haven’t seen his comments just a few weeks back on KH being the opposition’s candidate - he honestly couldn’t give less of a t*ss. Of course any sane person would rather debate Biden who’s in obvious cognitive decline and doesn’t know what day of the week it is rather than anyone else. But suggest he’s wetting himself is laughable.  Are you aware of the facts regarding the laptop and the coverup by the FBI that ensued? And I see you’ve conveniently missed my other rather relevant point regarding the Russia collusion hoax/lie and everything that surrounded its false equivalence and the subsequent media pile on. All factors which would harm the republican reputation and favour the democrats cause.   JD Vance’s comments are on par with what most of the opposition have called him over the past few years. But I find it rather refreshing that a) JD himself has admitted he was wrong with what he said and retracts those statements and b) Trump showing strength and forgiveness in putting the past to one side and putting the best candidate for VP forward. Contrast that to the DEI hire of the democrat party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the polls show up going forward but if the linked YouTube video I’ve submitted has anything to go by I suggest the democrats look for an alternative! 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Comfortably numb 18 Posted July 22 2 hours ago, Worthy Nigelton said: Whether she'll win or not is one thing, but she won't get destroyed by Trump in a debate. She's a prosecutor by trade I believe and Trump has many, many weaknesses. She's apparently a very intelligent woman who comes across as very warm in person... her weaknesses are whether she looks the part and whether she can deliver the types of speeches that get the people to vote for you. Being from California also doesn't help in the swing states. She's very popular on Wall Street apparently and huge contributions have already flooded in. This will be tight come election day, no doubt about it. Have you seen any of her previous debates? Tulsi Gabbard in the democrats own election debate took apart KH on her record as a prosecutor within two minutes. Harris completely ignored the points raised by Tulsi Gabbard and going off on a complete tangent. Many political commentators cite this moment as the reason KH had to withdrew from the race to be party candidate.  And I suggest you take a look at the attached if you believe Kamala is intelligent as you couldn’t be further from the truth!  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yellow hammer 87 Posted July 22 5 hours ago, horsefly said: Except ALL of us on this site did. The joy now is that there is only one very old gaffe-prone candidate left, and the Democrats can now unleash on him. You are comedy gold. I'm so looking to your gaffe-prone posts all the way to November. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Worthy Nigelton 1,193 Posted July 22 21 minutes ago, Comfortably numb said: Have you seen any of her previous debates? Tulsi Gabbard in the democrats own election debate took apart KH on her record as a prosecutor within two minutes. Harris completely ignored the points raised by Tulsi Gabbard and going off on a complete tangent. Many political commentators cite this moment as the reason KH had to withdrew from the race to be party candidate.  And I suggest you take a look at the attached if you believe Kamala is intelligent as you couldn’t be further from the truth!  We'll see. My bet is Trump knows he'll get owned and will refuse to debate her on live tv. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yellow hammer 87 Posted July 22 1 hour ago, Well b back said: Is Obama going to back Michelle ? If so she is miles ahead in the polls of both Trump and Harris. I mean, Michelle once chose the curtains for the White House ballroom, so she will obviously make a very capable President. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Iwans Big Toe 353 Posted July 22 (edited) 13 hours ago, horsefly said: Now Biden has gone the Democrats can now unleash the attack dogs on the very old, gaffe prone Trump. 20-years younger and far more intelligent than Trump, the crucial swing voters now have a genuine alternative to the convicted criminal and self-confessed sex offender. At least she knows Russia is a country in Europe and so is Ukraine and that Russia is bigger than Ukraine and invaded so that's bad. With that kind of eloquence it's no wonder she is your pick for President. She can barely string a coherent sentence together without cackling and after your support of Biden for the last 3 and a 1/2 years I'm sure it really speaks to you.   Edited July 22 by Iwans Big Toe 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,970 Posted July 22 (edited) 3 hours ago, Comfortably numb said: And I suggest you take a look at the attached if you believe Kamala is intelligent as you couldn’t be further from the truth!  Has she ever suggested people could maybe get over a virus by drinking disinfectant though? That's the bar for stupidity at this election. Trouble is, Biden's 81, but Trump is 78. Could Trump be senile before his term ends, and would that actually be an improvement on what we've seen from Trump so far? Edited July 22 by littleyellowbirdie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron obvious 1,607 Posted July 22 21 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said: Has she ever suggested people could maybe get over a virus by drinking disinfectant though? That's the bar for stupidity at this election. Trouble is, Biden's 81, but Trump is 78. Could Trump be senile before his term ends, and would that actually be an improvement on what we've seen from Trump so far? That is at least a testable statement. It's rubbish, but it can be proven to be so. If he keeps making such statements then there is a basis for rejecting him. Harris, from what I've seen of her, says nothing that can be tested. it is just meaningless, vacuous garbage. it may well work for her, because it means people can project whatever they want on to her utterances. it's the usual political technique, just extrapolated to its logical conclusion. But it's all pointless speculation. November is, politically speaking, an aeon away. Plenty of time for events, dear boy 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/first-poll-puts-harris-ahead-of-biden-in-striking-distance-of-trump/ar-BB1qrQeG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=853bf348c5f741bd8cf8ee52c135ff49&ei=10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yellow hammer 87 Posted July 23 15 minutes ago, horsefly said: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/first-poll-puts-harris-ahead-of-biden-in-striking-distance-of-trump/ar-BB1qrQeG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=853bf348c5f741bd8cf8ee52c135ff49&ei=10 You should read the articles before you post links to them  "The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/harris-smashes-fundraising-record-with-81-million-dollars-haul-over-24-hours/ar-BB1qrgnC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=d56f492ed08843d8adbdcc080e7a1bac&ei=22 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 19 minutes ago, yellow hammer said: You should read the articles before you post links to them  "The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said. Try it yourself RTB. It's been one day since Biden ruled himself out, and already she is significantly more popular. The race is now too close to call: "Harris and former President Trump are in a race that is too close to call with Trump receiving 49 percent support and Harris receiving 47 percent support," the poll found, according to a release. "There is no clear leader as the lead is within the margin of error." And now she has raised $81m in just 24 hours, a new fundraising record. Feel free to keep wetting yourself. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 6 hours ago, ron obvious said: That is at least a testable statement. It's rubbish, but it can be proven to be so. If he keeps making such statements then there is a basis for rejecting him.  Christ Almighty! How many do you need? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 (edited)  And here is why Trump and the Republicans are wetting themselves.  Edited July 23 by horsefly Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Comfortably numb 18 Posted July 23 1 hour ago, horsefly said:  And here is why Trump and the Republicans are wetting themselves.  Here is why they’re not..  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 7 minutes ago, Comfortably numb said: Here is why they’re not..  Sadly, I don't have all day to keep posting footage from Trump, so I'll stick to this compilation:  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,561 Posted July 23 16 hours ago, ricardo said: Get on then, it sounds like free money. A lot of people thought so, now as low as 5/4 in some markets, with your free money Trump as good as 10/11. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,561 Posted July 23 The first polls come out today after the likely promotion of Harris. Be interesting to see if anything changes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 7,462 Posted July 23 Never forget. Wonder if she will change her mind now to "appeal to the yoof" and all that? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paul101 171 Posted July 23 (edited) Right wing conservative america will stuggle to get there heads round kamala and thats just 80% of Democrats never forget when they say Left wing liberal they still meen something more to the right than anything in uk politics  Even more right wing Republicans will be drawn more to trump Edited July 23 by Paul101 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Midlands Yellow 4,479 Posted July 23 36 minutes ago, Well b back said: A lot of people thought so, now as low as 5/4 in some markets, with your free money Trump as good as 10/11. Best I can see on Trump is 4/7, where’s the 10/11? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 10,751 Posted July 23 35 minutes ago, Paul101 said: Right wing conservative america will stuggle to get there heads round kamala and thats just 80% of Democrats never forget when they say Left wing liberal they still meen something more to the right than anything in uk politics  Even more right wing Republicans will be drawn more to trump Convicted felon and rapist versus a multi racial woman?! It really should not be a left-right issue but more of a moral issue. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 5,048 Posted July 23 9 minutes ago, Herman said: Convicted felon and rapist versus a multi racial woman?! It really should not be a left-right issue but more of a moral issue. Yep! The cop versus the con. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites