A General Election prediction thread.

[SwindonCanary 457]

i'm voting TORY

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

Just now, SwindonCanary said:

i'm voting TORY

Does anyone remember the episode of Rab C Nesbitt where he’s offered a rug if he votes conservative? The Conservative finishes up with one vote and thanks Rab personally on TV, promising to get his carpet to him. I am getting the impression there’s a chance life might imitate art at this election.

[Herman 10,958]

27 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

i'm voting TORY

You're either on a wind up, you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention or you're so greedy and selfish that you couldn't give a toss about the rest of the country. 

[Naturalcynic 817]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

You're either on a wind up, you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention or you're so greedy and selfish that you couldn't give a toss about the rest of the country. 

Probably a far-right racist xenophobic nazi who’s defected from Reform because Farage isn’t sufficiently fascist, eh Herman?

Edited July 2 by Naturalcynic

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

14 minutes ago, Naturalcynic said:

Probably a far-right racist xenophobic nazi who’s defected from Reform because Farage isn’t sufficiently fascist, eh Herman?

The latest defections from Reform have indeed been to the Tory Party,  however, for exactly the opposite reason you state. 

[Herman 10,958]

18 minutes ago, Naturalcynic said:

Probably a far-right racist xenophobic nazi who’s defected from Reform because Farage isn’t sufficiently fascist, eh Herman?

You're not a million miles away..................unfortunately. 

[Midlands Yellow 4,585]

1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

i'm voting TORY

That a brave admission. You’ll enjoy election night as the results come in. 

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

17 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

That a brave admission. You’ll enjoy election night as the results come in. 

One thing Swindon doesn't mind is going against the flow. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

i'm voting TORY

Brave call

As per the thread title, how do you think they will get on?

[Midlands Yellow 4,585]

10 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Brave call

As per the thread title, how do you think they will get on?

Looking good for 90 odd seats. Their Election campaign has been worse than our efforts to stay up in the Premier League. 

[TheGunnShow 7,093]

Gonna stick with my original predo even though the polling looks like the Tories might do even worse. As much as plenty of people are correctly hacked off and then some, I suspect the shy Tory effect might actually be a bit more pronounced as well this time too. But it'll be interesting to find out.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

50 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Looking good for 90 odd seats. Their Election campaign has been worse than our efforts to stay up in the Premier League. 

I predicted 160 seats, but I didn't realise that the Tories were going to throw the towel in before the first bell.

I still think some of the reform support might gravitate back to them on the day 

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

I really liked Rab C Nesbitt.

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

12 hours ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Looking good for 90 odd seats. Their Election campaign has been worse than our efforts to stay up in the Premier League. 

Yeah, my prediction earlier in this thread is looking more likely the closer we get.

[kick it off 2,034]

13 hours ago, Herman said:

You're either on a wind up, you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention or you're so greedy and selfish that you couldn't give a toss about the rest of the country. 

It's well established that it's a matter of intellect with dear Swindo to be fair. Remember when he made up an Instagram model girlfriend and tried to pass it off legitimately? 🤣 

[dylanisabaddog 5,792]

I'm sure I'll end up being disappointed but I'll go with Electoral Calculus and say the Tories are going to come 3rd. It will be a highly entertaining summer if they do. 

[Yellow Fever 4,324]

49 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm sure I'll end up being disappointed but I'll go with Electoral Calculus and say the Tories are going to come 3rd. It will be a highly entertaining summer if they do. 

Can you imagine the cat fights and upheavals and if they come third? I think I'd just quietly shut the door and throw away the key on them.

[TheGunnShow 7,093]

I would chuckle if Sunak lost his seat. That really would be icing on the cake.

[Creative Midfielder 2,180]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm sure I'll end up being disappointed but I'll go with Electoral Calculus and say the Tories are going to come 3rd. It will be a highly entertaining summer if they do. 

I'll also be very disappointed if the Tories manage to hang onto second place but I suspect that Labour's arrogant and very foolish failure to co-operate with other progressive parties will result in significantly letting the Tories off the hook.

Even winning a huge majority won't disgiuse the fact that they have missed a huge historic opportunity to inflict permanent long term damage on the Tories and IMO this feeds into Labour's prospects for the GE following this one - there seems to be a very widespread assumption that Labour's win tomorrow also pretty much gaurantees a win next time as well but that seems to be a very naive assumption to me given that this election is all about getting rid of the Tories with very little actual enthusiam for the most timid and unambitious Labour Party I've ever seen.

Given the extremely difficult issues that Labour are going to inherit they are going to have to pull an awful lot of rabbits out of hats to have any chance at all of retaining anything like their current level of support in five years time.

[SwindonCanary 457]

14 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Brave call

As per the thread title, how do you think they will get on?

why ?

[horsefly 5,163]

16 hours ago, Herman said:

You're either on a wind up, you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention or you're so greedy and selfish that you couldn't give a toss about the rest of the country. 

It's Swindon, Herman. He probably thinks he's voting for Tori Amos.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

23 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

why ?

Just curious. This being a thread for predictions, and you being one of the only people to declare that you will vote conservative, I was interested as to how many seats you think they will win 

[sonyc 6,076]

16 hours ago, Herman said:

You're either on a wind up, you haven't paid the slightest bit of attention or you're so greedy and selfish that you couldn't give a toss about the rest of the country. 

There might be a whole range of reasons. Charlie Brooker has always been very forceful on the matter. Pick one.

I'm reminded too of Charles Walker's anger when Liz Truss was elected. This was his summary (from a Tory MP of 17 years). Link attached.

https://x.com/WBrierty/status/1808419040378888321?s=19

[horsefly 5,163]

26 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'll also be very disappointed if the Tories manage to hang onto second place but I suspect that Labour's arrogant and very foolish failure to co-operate with other progressive parties will result in significantly letting the Tories off the hook.

Even winning a huge majority won't disgiuse the fact that they have missed a huge historic opportunity to inflict permanent long term damage on the Tories and IMO this feeds into Labour's prospects for the GE following this one - there seems to be a very widespread assumption that Labour's win tomorrow also pretty much gaurantees a win next time as well but that seems to be a very naive assumption to me given that this election is all about getting rid of the Tories with very little actual enthusiam for the most timid and unambitious Labour Party I've ever seen.

Given the extremely difficult issues that Labour are going to inherit they are going to have to pull an awful lot of rabbits out of hats to have any chance at all of retaining anything like their current level of support in five years time.

I agree with the drift of your sentiments CM, but the reality is no serious party was going to agree explicitly to a pre-electoral pact to stand down candidates (It reeks of defeatism and voter manipulation).

The reality, of course, is that in many constituencies activists have acknowledged the need to campaign accordingly to get the Tories out. The new political force to emerge in this election is the significant impact of groups dedicated to tactical voting. Effectively they are explicitly dedicated to doing precisely what the political parties can't explicitly do. Personally, I see this as a gain for democracy enabling people alternatives beyond the traditional party political structures. 

[Yellow Fever 4,324]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'll also be very disappointed if the Tories manage to hang onto second place but I suspect that Labour's arrogant and very foolish failure to co-operate with other progressive parties will result in significantly letting the Tories off the hook.

Even winning a huge majority won't disgiuse the fact that they have missed a huge historic opportunity to inflict permanent long term damage on the Tories and IMO this feeds into Labour's prospects for the GE following this one - there seems to be a very widespread assumption that Labour's win tomorrow also pretty much gaurantees a win next time as well but that seems to be a very naive assumption to me given that this election is all about getting rid of the Tories with very little actual enthusiam for the most timid and unambitious Labour Party I've ever seen.

Given the extremely difficult issues that Labour are going to inherit they are going to have to pull an awful lot of rabbits out of hats to have any chance at all of retaining anything like their current level of support in five years time.

The election after this will be very different. It can be based on what Labour did in power, their success (or failures) and hopefully quite optimistic - with the current Tory attacks based on 'tax' and outright unfounded lies & fears neutered. Indeed the fears should be lets not let them back! 

Edited July 3 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 6,076]

Will go for a narrower range for the two largest parties and go broader for the smaller.

Labour 420 to 460

Conservative 75 to 85

Liberal Democrats 65 to 80

Reform 2 to 12 

SNP  10 to 15

Green 1 to 3

Plaid   2 to 3

Turnout 63 to 66% (low)

[Sheva 146]

Doesn’t matter which party you vote for they’ll let you down and disappoint.

 

 

[Creative Midfielder 2,180]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The election after this will be very different. It can be based on what Labour did in power, their success (or failures) and hopefully quite optimistic - with the current Tory attacks based on 'tax' and outright unfounded lies & fears neutered. Indeed the fears should be lets not let them back! 

Absolutely and I'm reasonably optimistic that Labour will meet the very modest expectations that they have been talking about for the last months and weeks, and I agree that even in five years time people, if they have any sense at all, should not be contemplating letting the Tories get anywhere near Government again.

But my concern is that if they fail to completely crush the Tories as I believe they could and should have done, i.e. reduce them to a few dozen seats and more importantly reduce them to third place then I think they leave them the ability to rebuild back to one of the two 'big' parties rather than reducing them permanently to the status of being just one of a number of smaller parties.

In five years time, although the memory of the Tory's disastrous 14 year rule will be quite fresh the overridding imperative to vote to get 'rid of the Tories', i.e. vote tactically which hugely benefits Labour will have disappeared and I think we will see a lot of people who've voted Labour this time will return to their 'natural' parties.

Whilst it might seem unfair if Labour basically achieve what they say they are planning to achieve over the next 5 years (which will be a massive improvement on the last 14 years) I still think come next election time a lot of people will be pretty disappointed  with that outcome and without the real threat of another Tory government Labour will find themselves losing votes to basically all the smaller parties.

I'm not saying that would necessarily cost them the next election but unless they signifcantly overdeliver on what they have promised I think next time around is going to be pretty tight.

 

[Yellow Fever 4,324]

8 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Absolutely and I'm reasonably optimistic that Labour will meet the very modest expectations that they have been talking about for the last months and weeks, and I agree that even in five years time people, if they have any sense at all, should not be contemplating letting the Tories get anywhere near Government again.

But my concern is that if they fail to completely crush the Tories as I believe they could and should have done, i.e. reduce them to a few dozen seats and more importantly reduce them to third place then I think they leave them the ability to rebuild back to one of the two 'big' parties rather than reducing them permanently to the status of being just one of a number of smaller parties.

In five years time, although the memory of the Tory's disastrous 14 year rule will be quite fresh the overridding imperative to vote to get 'rid of the Tories', i.e. vote tactically which hugely benefits Labour will have disappeared and I think we will see a lot of people who've voted Labour this time will return to their 'natural' parties.

Whilst it might seem unfair if Labour basically achieve what they say they are planning to achieve over the next 5 years (which will be a massive improvement on the last 14 years) I still think come next election time a lot of people will be pretty disappointed  with that outcome and without the real threat of another Tory government Labour will find themselves losing votes to basically all the smaller parties.

I'm not saying that would necessarily cost them the next election but unless they signifcantly overdeliver on what they have promised I think next time around is going to be pretty tight.

 

You can only beat the team in front of you CM. The 'next' election will have a completely different set of dynamics - I suspect for one that the 'SM' will be a hot topic (LD or even the New Conservatives 😉 ). For now let that look after itself. Still to cross the line tomorrow although it would appear SKS has played it extremely well. 

Edited July 3 by Yellow Fever

[Creative Midfielder 2,180]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

You can only beat the team in front of you CM. The 'next' election will have a completely different set of dynamics - I suspect for one that the 'SM' will be a hot topic (LD or even the New Conservatives 😉 ). For now let that look after itself. Still to cross the line tomorrow although it would appear SKS has played it extremely well. 

Well, you're right that I'm rather getting ahead of myself predicting what might happen at the election after this one but it all flows from my original concern that Labour have missed the opportunity that they had to really maximise the damage inflicted on the Tories this time.

You are probably also right in saying that in some places local activists have reached some informal agreements about how vigorously they campaign in certain seats but I'm pretty sure that there are also a fair number of close 3 way contests between the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems/Green/SNP which could very well lead to a Tory surviving with a percentage vote in the low 30s - that is really frustrating, in fact pretty much unforgiveable as far as I'm concerned and the culprit IMO is the Labour party.