A General Election prediction thread.

[TheGunnShow 7,094]

As polling is not always the most accurate of arts and can fluctuate quite a bit during the course of an election campaign, I suggest we have a separate thread for guessing the number of seats the major parties will get.

Give or take 20 either way, I would guess Labour will get around 380, the Tories around 120, the Lib Dems could get 50. I think a fair few of the Reform voters in the polls will come back in relatively close Tory seats because the thought of Labour taking over the seat might be even worse from their perspective, although some may be so unimpressed they ignore it as a punishment.

I'd be surprised if Reform got more than 5 seats, but wouldn't be surprised if they get more votes in total than the Lib Dems, or maybe even the Lib Dems, SNP and the Greens combined.

SNP's seats should fall severely, I expect Labour to get most of those. Suspect the Tories might lose every seat in Greater Manchester, including Altrincham/Sale West. Greater Manchester might be fully red, although I think the Lib Dems might grab a couple, Hazel Grove might be the likeliest.

[Fen Canary 1,383]

1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said:

As polling is not always the most accurate of arts and can fluctuate quite a bit during the course of an election campaign, I suggest we have a separate thread for guessing the number of seats the major parties will get.

Give or take 20 either way, I would guess Labour will get around 380, the Tories around 120, the Lib Dems could get 50. I think a fair few of the Reform voters in the polls will come back in relatively close Tory seats because the thought of Labour taking over the seat might be even worse from their perspective, although some may be so unimpressed they ignore it as a punishment.

I'd be surprised if Reform got more than 5 seats, but wouldn't be surprised if they get more votes in total than the Lib Dems, or maybe even the Lib Dems, SNP and the Greens combined.

SNP's seats should fall severely, I expect Labour to get most of those. Suspect the Tories might lose every seat in Greater Manchester, including Altrincham/Sale West. Greater Manchester might be fully red, although I think the Lib Dems might grab a couple, Hazel Grove might be the likeliest.

I think you probably won’t be too far wrong with this prediction to be honest 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

I call it as follows:

Labour - 390

Conservative - 160

Liberal Democrats - 40

SNP - 25

Reform - 8

Green - 1

Others (welsh, NI, etc) - 25

Speaker- 1 😉

Edited June 14 by How I Wrote Elastic Man
Removed green from others

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

42 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I call it as follows:

Labour - 390

Conservative - 160

Liberal Democrats - 40

SNP - 25

Reform - 8

Green - 1

Others (welsh, NI, etc) - 25

Speaker- 1 😉

I think you're not far off, but I think the Conservatives will be about 120 and Lib Dems about 80.

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

Labour - 426 (Angie factor applied 😇)

Conservative - 92

Liberal Democrats - 58

SNP - 35

Reform - 8

Green - 1

Others (welsh, NI, etc) - 29

 

Could way out some, but the Tories are in disarray, so I'm more firm with 92. But hey, it's just a bit of fun predicting it.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

What's the Angie factor: The public idolising liars?

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

8 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

What's the Angie factor: The public idolising liars?

Or that she's just goddamn wonderful. 

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

Just now, Daz Sparks said:

Or that she's just goddamn wonderful. 

Nope. Ipsos  has her at 25% favourable against 37% unfavourable, giving her a negative popularity rating worse than Starmer's rating by Ipsos.

[Herman 10,958]

Do you run Ipsos? 

[A Load of Squit 6,054]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Nope. Ipsos  has her at 25% favourable against 37% unfavourable, giving her a negative popularity rating worse than Starmer's rating by Ipsos.

By not reporting the statistics in full you are being very stupid.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/no-significant-change-angela-rayners-favourability-ratings-amidst-ongoing-tax-row

• 25% are favourable towards Angela Rayner this April, with 37% unfavourable - unchanged from March.
• For comparison, 21% are favourable towards Rishi Sunak and 56% are unfavourable.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

51 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

By not reporting the statistics in full you are being very stupid.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/no-significant-change-angela-rayners-favourability-ratings-amidst-ongoing-tax-row

• 25% are favourable towards Angela Rayner this April, with 37% unfavourable - unchanged from March.
• For comparison, 21% are favourable towards Rishi Sunak and 56% are unfavourable.

Guess the fact that you avoided mentioning Starmer's figures in there makes you a certifiable moron then (spoiler: His net popularity is better than Rayner's).

Edited June 16 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Do you run Ipsos? 

Look: Your precious Guardian even publishes ipsos polling data. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/22/labour-tories-election-polls-analysis

[BroadstairsR 2,272]

Rayner's hardly a proper politician, more a street corner girl with all the attributes and single-tracked mindedness that that involves.

Unfortunately, she has her supporters and enough of them to dictate to Mr. Muscle, Keir Starmer (eg. the Diane Abbot turnabout) on matters of policy.

Is she capable of appearing on a television discussion programme without shouting her face off? 

[TheGunnShow 7,094]

On 14/06/2024 at 20:36, littleyellowbirdie said:

I think you're not far off, but I think the Conservatives will be about 120 and Lib Dems about 80.

Dunno about 80 for the Lib Dems - they only got mid-50s when Clegg formed the coalition with Cameron and that was probably their high point in recent terms. That would probably depend how much the notion of tactical voting kicks in - and how accurately it does too considering that many seats have been somewhat redrawn. That's another complicating factor regarding the polling too, which is why I'm remaining highly sceptical about numbers of seats.

[Midlands Yellow 4,585]

On 14/06/2024 at 20:36, littleyellowbirdie said:

I think you're not far off, but I think the Conservatives will be about 120 and Lib Dems about 80.

Way out with those estimates, Tories 100 (if they get lucky) Libs 50/60 at a push. 

[BroadstairsR 2,272]

Either way, will austerity return  and growth stifled?

I Iove the French, but not their politicians in the same way I Iove the Aussies but not their cricketers, but boy are they in trouble with a National Debt skyrocketing to Italian levels.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/23/france-faces-four-major-economic-challenges-in-2024.

The upcoming election could be interesting and close.

(I note this morning having heard that, due to climate change and other factors (chalky soil) that the  Kentish wine industry thrives as never before and even to the extent that declining French wine-growers are buying up areas of S.E. England due to the increasing quality, lower price of our product and the fact that there is far less regulation.)

 

Edited June 16 by BroadstairsR

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said:

Dunno about 80 for the Lib Dems - they only got mid-50s when Clegg formed the coalition with Cameron and that was probably their high point in recent terms. That would probably depend how much the notion of tactical voting kicks in - and how accurately it does too considering that many seats have been somewhat redrawn. That's another complicating factor regarding the polling too, which is why I'm remaining highly sceptical about numbers of seats.

As with Labour's huge predicted majority, it's less about how popular they are and more about how unpopular the Conservatives are.

From memory, last general election there were about 110 Conservative seats where the Lib Dems were the second place party. Admittedly, when you're up to the 80 mark you're talking some very big swings away from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems, but this election we're talking about some very big swings away from the Conservatives. A good 20 or so  would have been won without any swing in 2019 if Labour voters had been voting tactically as well.

I'd say the Lib Dems getting up to 80 is more likely than Labour getting up to 430 as Daz suggested.

Anyway, we'll see soon enough.

 

Edited June 16 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 6,054]

"incredible successes" 🤣🤣🤣

[littleyellowbirdie 3,047]

11 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

"incredible successes" 🤣🤣🤣

To be fair, they've been more successful in government than you have at posting things that are relevant on this thread. That's a very low bar, admittedly.

Edited June 16 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 6,054]

18 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

To be fair, they've been more successful in government than you have at posting things that are relevant on this thread. That's a very low bar, admittedly.

It's Bill Cash making a prediction about the election.

[Daz Sparks 1,539]

On 16/06/2024 at 11:05, Daz Sparks said:

Labour - 426 (Angie factor applied 😇)  Odds 13/2 (400-450)

Conservative - 92 Odds 10/11 (50-99)

Liberal Democrats - 58 

SNP - 35

Reform - 8

Green - 1

Others (welsh, NI, etc) - 29

 

Could way out some, but the Tories are in disarray, so I'm more firm with 92. But hey, it's just a bit of fun predicting it.

Bookies not keen on the Tories getting over 100 seats.

[KiwiScot 1,660]

I am confident the expectation that the SNP will lose a lot of seats will not come to pass as their support galvanises come election day. It's too entrenced and we know Labour don't need the Scottish seats to win so 42 seats

Edited June 30 by KiwiScot

[KiwiScot 1,660]

Going for a turn out of 68%

[Herman 10,958]

54 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Going for a turn out of 68%

Kiwi's gone high. I'm going lower, lower. Mid 50s.

[ricardo 7,844]

I will stick my neck out and forecast 

LAB      38%

TORY    25%

LIBS       12%

REF         12%

Hard to say how that works out in seats but Lab close to 400 give or take a handful.

[Creative Midfielder 2,180]

15 hours ago, ricardo said:

I will stick my neck out and forecast 

LAB      38%

TORY    25%

LIBS       12%

REF         12%

Hard to say how that works out in seats but Lab close to 400 give or take a handful.

Have you backed that with any cash, don't seem to have heard about any of your bets for a good while?

[ricardo 7,844]

10 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Have you backed that with any cash, don't seem to have heard about any of your bets for a good while?

Just a couple of small wagers on Tory seat numbers. 100 to 149 and 150 to 199 both look fair value.

The polling is all over the place so its not worth risking more than peanuts.

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

23 hours ago, ricardo said:

I will stick my neck out and forecast 

LAB      38%

TORY    25%

LIBS       12%

REF         12%

Hard to say how that works out in seats but Lab close to 400 give or take a handful.

Labour majority of 212 using your figures, according to electoral calculus 

I've taken the liberty of assuming 3% for the greens. The calculation has worked out "others" to be around 6%, up from 1%, which seems a little unlikely 

[ricardo 7,844]

54 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Labour majority of 212 using your figures, according to electoral calculus 

I've taken the liberty of assuming 3% for the greens. The calculation has worked out "others" to be around 6%, up from 1%, which seems a little unlikely 

I expect there will be lots of local variations so I wouldn't take electoral calculus as gospel.

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,292]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

I expect there will be lots of local variations so I wouldn't take electoral calculus as gospel.

 

True. I'm not taking the apocalyptic polls as gospel either, though Labour will undoubtedly have a  decent majority.