Pinkun General Election thread (ID required)

[dylanisabaddog 5,823]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That may be true although what @sonyc suggests seems very likely to me, not because we wish for it but because its very obvious that it is what many Labour MPs (& members) want.

Starmer has certainly suceeded (too well for my liking 😀 ) in maintaining strict party discipline running up to the election, but if, as expected, Labour end up with 400ish MPs then all sorts of things change - as Johnson found, as other PMs before him have, it is much easier to maintain party discipline with a very small majority than it is with a very big one.

I disagree. If you have a majority of 50 and have 60 MPs who are out to cause trouble you have a major problem. If your majority is 200 you have no problem at all. 

Theresa May found that out with the ERG. 

As it happens, Starmer has done a remarkable job of getting rid of the extreme left but all he actually needs is 335 to do as they're told. The other thing in his favour is that the ERG was extremely well organised. The left of Labour will just sit in the bar and moan like they've always done. 

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

Just now, Barbe bleu said:

But were those already cast votes ever up for grabs? 

Most of us are unimportant in elections. The trick is to appeal to those who either have no strong opinions or are genuinely on the fence and those people are disproportionately not the sort that have a postal vote already cast.

Agree with that - Argued elsewhere its why I don't like postal votes - voting a week or two early before the campaign has ended (and any last minute offers / changes / taxes  - perhaps 'cut' pensions would focus minds) seems plain daft. All voting (including electronic on line) to take place on the day and not before.

[dylanisabaddog 5,823]

10 minutes ago, king canary said:

I think the debate format isn't Starmer's strong point but I don't think it is a major factor in how people view them. In a closer election it might have made a difference.

Someone else also made a point that a not insignificant number of votes will already have been cast before the debate so its chances of moving the needle are minimal at best.

He may have been completely different if he had nothing to lose and everything to gain. I've no idea but he was considered one of the best legal minds in the country and usually people like that are good orators. 

At the moment he's 3-0 up with half an hour to go and just praying none of his players scores an own goal. 

[king canary 8,425]

6 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

But were those already cast votes ever up for grabs? 

Most of us are unimportant in elections. The trick is to appeal to those who either have no strong opinions or are genuinely on the fence and those people are disproportionately not the sort that have a postal vote already cast.

Not sure what you'd base that on? Is there any evidence swing voters don't need postal votes?

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The snap poll was 50/50 

However, that doesn't matter - people see what they want to see (see the link below).

Yes, he poll headlines don't matter - polling was 50/50 (and wouldn't sunak love that spilt come to vote) but drill down and you'll probably find that most of that is tribal loyalty and loyalists dont matter.  

The only thing that matters is how those who are alterable perceived it.  My inclination is that sunak did better than starmer but that it won't be enough to significantly reduce the lead Labour had ahead of this.

 

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

7 minutes ago, king canary said:

Not sure what you'd base that on? Is there any evidence swing voters don't need postal votes?

That's only half the question, and it's not about 'need', more about desire.

'Swing voters' are important  but so are the 'I might voters' .

if you haven't decided if you will vote you'll be far less likely to have bothered with getting and despatching a postal vote than someone who is super keen and super tribal.

I think I heard the grinding of teeth with daz filled out his postal vote from here, I hear it every couple of years.  I also heard the same from natural cynic's house.  Those votes were never up for grabs, but maybe hogester's vote is, and guess who is the kingmaker in this three way? 

 

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes, he poll headlines don't matter - polling was 50/50 (and wouldn't sunak love that spilt come to vote) but drill down and you'll probably find that most of that is tribal loyalty and loyalists dont matter.  

The only thing that matters is how those who are alterable perceived it.  My inclination is that sunak did better than starmer but that it won't be enough to significantly reduce the lead Labour had ahead of this.

 

The poll is what the poll is. Yes 80% of 'conservative' voters thought Sunak did better. They would wouldn't they. They likely also believe in the tax fictions.

Yet it seems most generally thought SKS did better on most pertinent points, floating voters included.

Sunak didn't go forward - at best stood still. No voters Labour-Tory voters will of changed their mind.

[jhubs 41]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes, he poll headlines don't matter - polling was 50/50 (and wouldn't sunak love that spilt come to vote) but drill down and you'll probably find that most of that is tribal loyalty and loyalists dont matter.  

The only thing that matters is how those who are alterable perceived it.  My inclination is that sunak did better than starmer but that it won't be enough to significantly reduce the lead Labour had ahead of this.

 

I suspect for all the people he won over on points made, that he lost just as many based on his style and attitude last night.

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

That's only half the question, and it's not about 'need', more about desire.

'Swing voters' are important  but so are the 'I might voters' .

if you haven't decided if you will vote you'll be far less likely to have bothered with getting and despatching a postal vote than someone who is super keen and super tribal.

I think I heard the grinding of teeth with daz filled out his postal vote from here, I hear it every couple of years.  I also heard the same from natural cynic's house.  Those votes were never up for grabs, but maybe hogester's vote is, and guess who is the kingmaker in this three way? 

 

I would guess the vast majority of postal voters are elderly and hence more likely to be Tory.

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The poll is what the poll is. Yes 80% of 'conservative' voters thought Sunak did better. They would wouldn't they. They likely also believe in the tax fictions.

 

You could just as easily and accurately  say

The poll is what the poll is. "Yes 80% of 'labour' voters thought Starmer did better. They would wouldn't they. They likely also believe in the tax fictions."

What we really want to know, and what we can't really know from the poll is what % of people have been pushed to change their mind because of this?

I'd say sunak had a narrow win, but he scored 3 points when he needed 7 and its going to take something  quite peculiar to change that before the final whistle.

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

11 minutes ago, jhubs said:

I suspect for all the people he won over on points made, that he lost just as many based on his style and attitude last night.

Sunak was more aggressive/passionate/assertive/rude (delete according to own prejudices)

I'm not sure how that plays out with the 'traditional fence sitters' and the 'actually quite attracted by farage' .   I'd have thought it is a slight positive, but it's hard to tell.

 

Edited June 27 by Barbe bleu

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

You could just as easily and accurately  say

The poll is what the poll is. "Yes 80% of 'labour' voters thought Starmer did better. They would wouldn't they. They likely also believe in the tax fictions."

What we really want to know, and what we can't really know from the poll is what % of people have been pushed to change their mind because of this?

I'd say sunak had a narrow win, but he scored 3 points when he needed 7 and its going to take something  quite peculiar to change that before the final whistle.

This is what the snap poll said 

Asked how well each individual politician performed, slightly more say Starmer did a good job (61%) than Sunak (56%).

This wasn't a debate about their policies but just who performed better, was more believable.

In short SKS did what he needed to do, Sunak didn't.

Edited June 27 by Yellow Fever

[TheGunnShow 7,126]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I disagree. If you have a majority of 50 and have 60 MPs who are out to cause trouble you have a major problem. If your majority is 200 you have no problem at all. 

Theresa May found that out with the ERG. 

As it happens, Starmer has done a remarkable job of getting rid of the extreme left but all he actually needs is 335 to do as they're told. The other thing in his favour is that the ERG was extremely well organised. The left of Labour will just sit in the bar and moan like they've always done. 

Was going to say, John Major suffered from a small majority with several MPs out to cause havoc in his last term.

[A Load of Squit 6,066]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

That was pretty much my take too.   Sunak was playing primarily to the potential reform voter, albeit in the hope of swinging the 10% or so that are Labour by default.

I thought this was a win for sunak, but it was like scoring a drop goal in the 79th minute when what you really need is a converted try.   It gets talked about and improves the look of the scoreboard but really it's  a missed opportunity. 

Starmer was second best for most of the match, but he did the things he really needed to do, he didn't drop the ball and didn't allow sunak all off the room he really needed to change the result.

Sunak behaved like the leader of the opposition (he won't be 'cos he'll resign and swan off to the USA), Starmer looked like the next Prime Minister.

 

[Naturalcynic 817]

Not sure I agree completely as my default position is not to appease an aggressor, but it looks as if Sir Tony Brenton, former British Ambassador in Moscow, largely agrees with Farage’s position regarding Russia, Putin, NATO and the war in Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/27/nigel-farage-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-nato-eu/

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

8 minutes ago, yellow hammer said:

Very childish

[dylanisabaddog 5,823]

8 minutes ago, yellow hammer said:

Oh dear 

[yellow hammer 114]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Very childish

Only when we do it.

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

Just now, yellow hammer said:

Only when we do it.

This is pre-pubescent humour. Do grow up please.

[Nuff Said 5,769]

I don’t think Labour have much to worry about if that’s the best you’ve got.

[yellow hammer 114]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is pre-pubescent humour. Do grow up please.

This is the Pinkun messageboard, right? do you come here often?

[yellow hammer 114]

[king canary 8,425]

2 minutes ago, yellow hammer said:

Jesus christ.

[TheGunnShow 7,126]

Apparently we're screwed under the other party despite this current one being in power for 14 years and being a truly incompetent shower, especially since May got in. There was a veneer of competence with Cameron in, May was the supply teacher who was willing but out of her depth, then it crashed through the floor with the Demented Oompa-Loompa and then the Lettuce Woman.

Said before that Sunak's got a thankless task on, but even he has delusions of mediocrity now rather than again.

Edited June 27 by TheGunnShow

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

3 minutes ago, king canary said:

Jesus christ.

No, even sir keir doesn't think he is Jesus Christ.

He did say 'son of a toolmaker' and  not 'son of the maker' didn't he?

Messianic powers would explain why he single handedly busted all the world's terrorist groups though...

Edited June 27 by Barbe bleu

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

5 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Apparently we're screwed under the other party despite this current one being in power for 14 years and being a truly incompetent shower, especially since May got in. There was a veneer of competence with Cameron in, May was the supply teacher who was willing but out of her depth, then it crashed through the floor with Johnson and then the Lettuce Woman.

Said before that Sunak's got a thankless task on, but even he has delusions of mediocrity now rather than again.

I could agree with that - indeed I now feel pity for Sunak as said before. But then he's made his own bed!

Edited June 27 by Yellow Fever

[Barbe bleu 1,000]

"Blessed are the toolmakers, for their children will be god" (Matthew 5:9)

[TheGunnShow 7,126]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I could agree with that - indeed I now fell pity for Sunak as said before. But then he's made his own bed!

Said before, the Tories will have these odd spells where they fractured into fractions, often where Europe tended to be the fracture point - and whoever the poor schmuck in charge is finds themselves herding cats. 

Major found that out the hard way in his last years as PM, William Hague and IDS arguably had the worst of it but there was no way many a Tory would have taken Ken Clarke as a leader of the party as he was too Europhile for their tastes, and Cameron started having problems with it this time around, whilst May had to desperately try and mop up pieces.

[Yellow Fever 4,338]

1 minute ago, TheGunnShow said:

Said before, the Tories will have these odd spells where they fractured into fractions, often where Europe tended to be the fracture point - and whoever the poor schmuck in charge is finds themselves herding cats. 

Major found that out the hard way in his last years as PM, William Hague and IDS arguably had the worst of it but there was no way many a Tory would have taken Ken Clarke as a leader of the party as he was too Europhile for their tastes, and Cameron started having problems with it this time around, whilst May had to desperately try and mop up pieces.

My pet name for May was May 'the Unready' (in reference to the much maligned Æthelred the Unready). I actually thought at the time it couldn't get any worse but how wrong I was. The clown and then 'the lettuce'. Sunak has at least tried to be competent but frankly in the most incompetent of parties.. (apart from during Covid lock downs it seems)

[Canary73 299]

Meanwhile in NE Somerset....