Pukki's misses...

[Petriix 3,214]

No, not his missus, you filthy people... 

There seems to be a bit of a consensus on here that Pukki was in decline and was not anywhere near his previous level this season. While he received a good send off in person, the Pink'Un forumati had long written the great man off and his departure barely gets a mention. That feels a little sad to me because, in my opinion, he was every bit as influential as Buendia in our success. 

Anyway, as part of my research for a previous post (because everyone likes to have a factual basis for the things they say, right?) I stumbled across some interesting statistics: in this season Pukki missed 10 'big chances'; in 2020/21 he missed 22. See here

While it's true that Teemu had a far lower shot conversion rate this season, it's evident that he has had a far lower quality of opportunity from which to shoot. I've no doubt that we will be a far worse team without him. And, as I keep reiterating, the problems at both ends of the pitch are absolutely seated in midfield. 

[Branston Pickle 4,145]

Hmmm…from what you are saying it suggests Pukki wasn’t ever as good as we thought ;-)?!  I do wonder who/where these things are measured and how consistently, but that’s just my professional training coming through.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Branston Pickle

[Petriix 3,214]

7 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

Hmmm…from what you are saying it suggests Pukki wasn’t ever as good as we thought ;-)?!  I do wonder who/where these things are measured and how consistently, but that’s just my professional training coming through.

Not at all. Every striker misses loads of chances. I think people remember the misses when we lose and forget them when we win. The biggest overall takeaway from the stats is that the team have become far worse at creating quality chances. Pukki is an absolute legend who we will struggle to replace and stopping playing to his strengths coincided with a significant downturn in results. 

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Pukki got most chances so scored most goals in the champs when Emi was playing. 

Interestingly he scored the same 11 PL goals without Emi. I don't have an explanation for that.

[Branston Pickle 4,145]

1 minute ago, nutty nigel said:

Pukki got most chances so scored most goals in the champs when Emi was playing. 

Interestingly he scored the same 11 PL goals without Emi. I don't have an explanation for that.

Quite - particularly when you are playing one striker it does rather a) suggest he’ll get the most chances and b) score the most goals.

[Monty13 2,736]

47 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Pukki got most chances so scored most goals in the champs when Emi was playing. 

Interestingly he scored the same 11 PL goals without Emi. I don't have an explanation for that.

I don’t think it’s a Pukki issue it’s a team issue (specifically in midfield) as Petriix is suggesting.

We’ve scored progressively fewer goals (compared to previous seasons at the same level) over the last 5 seasons and Pukki’s % of our goals scored has generally increased at the same time.

I don’t think the issue with Emi leaving was necessarily that Pukki stopped scoring, but the rest of the team started scoring less and less and we became increasingly reliant on Pukki doing something.

Emi wasn’t just the creative spark for Pukki, but for the whole team. 

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

He wasn't just a goalscorer, he was an exceptional all-round forward player.

He lost some of everything last season, but I did not read it as particularly decline but rather more a combination of factors ... the general malaise, or whatever you want to call it, in the squad being the main thing.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,261]

Yeah his missed loads in his best seasons as well. We provided him with like 5 or 6 good chances a game though so it didn't matter and he had a knack of getting the important goals as well and sticking the ball away when it mattered. All strikers miss chances regularly and most of their shots don't go in, even Haaland. Pukki was really good though at not letting it affect him and continually getting into the right positions all game until it eventually worked for him. I look at Sargent for example and those misses just affect him too much. It's good that players care but sometimes for strikers it's better to have a cool head which Pukki had. This season it was clear he just wasn't getting the type of service he liked so I think he just checked out a bit, we gave him chances but they were rarely the type and in the positions that he'd been so deadly in before. I don't see the same decline that others do, I think he's lost a bit of speed and he became fed up with his role in the team this year but in the right system he could still easily get 20 goals at this level. I have this nagging ominous feeling that Southampton are going to go for Farke and he'll convince Pukki to join him. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Christoph Stiepermann

[nutty nigel 7,902]

2 hours ago, Monty13 said:

I don’t think it’s a Pukki issue it’s a team issue (specifically in midfield) as Petriix is suggesting.

We’ve scored progressively fewer goals (compared to previous seasons at the same level) over the last 5 seasons and Pukki’s % of our goals scored has generally increased at the same time.

I don’t think the issue with Emi leaving was necessarily that Pukki stopped scoring, but the rest of the team started scoring less and less and we became increasingly reliant on Pukki doing something.

Emi wasn’t just the creative spark for Pukki, but for the whole team. 

I think so. But take away either Pukki or Emi and we don't win those two championship titles.

But the PL seasons things look different...

19/20... 21pts  26 gls  Pukki 11

21/22...  22pts  23 gls  Pukki 11

OK, 3 less goals without Emi but 1 more point. The difference is negligible.

[Mason 47 1,921]

I've always felt like the 'Pukki can only score with Emi around' thing was a bit of an old Norwich wives tale. As in, it happened a bit more regularly than usual so from then on it's the only way it ever did.

Agree totally with the OP, it's been very apparent to me that we weren't able to keep any consistent pressure on opposition final third which is where attackers do their good work. When chances are fewer, you remember them much more readily when missed.

[Ulfotto 798]

This analysis seems pretty accurate off the top of my head I can think of the home Preston game, sheff Utd penalty and the Burnley away where he has missed 1:1. 
 

That said the issue this season was not scoring goals but the fact we seemed to find new ways to concede them every week which clearly is nothing to do with Pukki.

[Google Bot 3,927]

6 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

Interestingly he scored the same 11 PL goals without Emi. I don't have an explanation for that.

In the season with Emi, Almost 30% of those goals came in a single game too (Newcastle) and had completely dried up by end of Jan - Which killed us.

Even though it didn't feel like it at the time, Pukki was more consistent in the following campaign, and was scoring in the final weeks, Something he and Emi failed to do in 19/20.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

44 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

In the season with Emi, Almost 30% of those goals came in a single game too (Newcastle) and had completely dried up by end of Jan - Which killed us.

Even though it didn't feel like it at the time, Pukki was more consistent in the following campaign, and was scoring in the final weeks, Something he and Emi failed to do in 19/20.

Of course those final games were played in the summer behind closed doors. I tend to ignore the stats from those games for the same reasons I ignore the following championship campaign. 

My best memories are from 2018/19 and up to lockdown in the following PL season. At that point were still in with a chance of staying up and had an FA Cup quarter final at home to Man Utd to look forward to. I honestly believe we'd have won that game with a packed Carrow Road cheering us on. I'm rambling a bit now but there's every chance with the momentum we had Pukki could have scored more goals than he did when the season resumed much later in the summer.

That's the only explanation I have.

Edited May 14, 2023 by nutty nigel

[Robert N. LiM 6,274]

17 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

Pukki was really good though at not letting it affect him

And that's easier when you know another decent chance will be along in a moment. He looked much more frustrated at missing chances this season, presumably because he knew they'd be few and far between. And actually, if you know you're going to get fewer chances, they then become higher-pressure ones, meaning you're more likely to miss...

[Robert N. LiM 6,274]

17 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

I have this nagging ominous feeling that Southampton are going to go for Farke and he'll convince Pukki to join him.

Well,  that would be heart-breaking

[Tetteys Jig 851]

10 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Well,  that would be heart-breaking

Nah, they basically have the closest thing to Pukki already in their ranks in Adam Armstrong. Think he’ll be their main striker next season along with Che Adams and that massive bloke they got in Jan