How much of a failure would finishing outside the top 6 be?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

10 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

The circumstances are completely different. Wagner had to come in and try to turn us around immediately; that is, he had to be in charge of a game within a few days and transform a side that was sinking fast. Smith in theory had a whole close season to prepare for the season ahead.

Doesn't change the fact that we were in the playoff places before the last game, so if we fall out and don't get back in by the end of the season then that has to be on Wagner if we're sticking to the received wisdom that managers are the be all and end all.

[Midlands Yellow 3,980]

6 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Who employed Farke? Who employed Wagner? Who bought Sara?

But yes, of course not getting top 6 is a failure.

Fair comments, 60/40 we make the Play Offs after tanking Huddersfield. 

[nutty nigel 7,531]

17 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

The circumstances are completely different. Wagner had to come in and try to turn us around immediately; that is, he had to be in charge of a game within a few days and transform a side that was sinking fast. Smith in theory had a whole close season to prepare for the season ahead.

That's fair enough. Wagner gets a pass to next season where failure to get in the top six would be down to him?

Or maybe try to build again without calling for heads whenever expectations aren't met.

 

[canarybubbles 1,915]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I dont disagree really. Just playing devil's advocate. If we don't get top 6 with Wagner in our current position and him having got the likes of Sara actually looking very good at this level (something Smith couldn't) is it that Smith despite everything didn't have us too far away from where the squad actually is?

Or do we say the squad is better and Smith dreadfully underperformed, so did Wagner (if no top 6) but with the caveat of him coming in mid season?

I think the problem is that we really need to rethink our whole strategy but we can't do that until promotion becomes impossible. There are more and more comments on here suggesting that Pukki is past his best and we should drop him, and for me this highlights our problems: we can't change horses midstream. Looking at Sunday's game against Sunderland, for me we looked like we were still playing a not very good version of Farkeball, which is not surprising because you can't change style and footballing philosophy in the middle of a campaign. I have some sympathy with people who say we would be better off remaining in the Championship and rebuilding, but as long as promotion remains a possibility - even if it means another season of coming bottom of the PL - it seems crazy not to try to grab it. But that means we can't make the radical changes that I suspect Wagner would like to make.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

1 hour ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

In a practical sense though what would have been different?

Gibbs might have got a bit more football, perhaps Mumba would have stayed, Gunn in from start perhaps.

Rowe been injured so no change with him. Perhaps Sargent would have got a bit more football as a number 9?

With nobody coming in to pay our asking price for Max Aarons there was no money for a major rebuild. 

Well the pressure to win promotion wouldn’t be on the team for starters, Tomkinson, Omobamidele, Mumba, McCallum, Tzolis, Idah, Sargent, Springett and although injured Rowe could see a pathway, opportunity.    They would have had more opportunities (not all at the same time of course) but to develop alongside Sara and Nunez, Pukki, Aaron’s and a CB.   We would work in a philosophy that these players could develop in.   Sargent and / or Idah would get opportunities up front, wide players would play wide and get the most out of those positions instead of accommodating Idah and Sargent which is just bizarre.    Tzolis and even Rashica could be playing, and would could develop our own instead of improving Aston Villa’s next generation.

Ideally they would have scouted a youngster or two with pace and athleticism to develop some proper CDMs who could make us competitive and hard to beat.    We’d have something brewing, some potential, some hope.
 

The attitude would be different, so would the fans patience!    Smith failed but he was always required to pursue promotion and with this lot, that was never realistic.

Edited March 13, 2023 by ged in the onion bag

[ridgeman 131]

If we  finish outside of the top six it would be failure and one person is to blame Webber.  Our first promotion to the premier league was interrupted by Covid but we seemed to be holding our own until the lock down when the wheels came off. We then stormed the Championship and got promoted again thinking Webber had learnt his lesson from the last visit to the Premier League.

It has been reported that Farke wanted 3 or 4 quality players but Webber knew best and signed an incredible 11 average players wasting millions. If his previous statements are correct that the Sporting Director dictates style of play then he changd the way we played and  when this wasn't working he threw Farke out just months into a new contract and after a win. Webber then appointed Smith another major mistake things just got worse and Smith was gone.

We are told the training facilities have been upgraded, Soccerbot has been installed  but the standard of football  has deteriorated. We are now having a swimming pool installed we had one under Chase and it was closed because it was not economical.

On Sunday against Sunderland we saw our back four passing the ball between themselves whilst Sunderland had all their players behind the ball making it difficult for us to break them down. Mowbray has said they know we like to play it out from the back so put us under pressure and we have made more defensive mistakes than any other team, he knows that and it has been reported in the press so why can't our sporting director sort it.

Webber has now been here some six years if he is such a slick operator why haven't seen more of his youth products coming through.I think Webber is the problem not the answer.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

Just now, ged in the onion bag said:

Well the pressure to win promotion wouldn’t be on the team for starters, Tomkinson, Omobamidele, Mumba, McCallum, Tzolis, Idah, Sargent, Springett and although injured Rowe could see a pathway, opportunity.    They would have had more opportunities (not all at the same time of course) but to develop alongside Sara and Nunez, Pukki, Aaron’s and a CB.   We would work in a philosophy that these players could develop in.   Sargent and / or Idah would get opportunities up front, wide players would play wide and get the most out of those positions instead of accommodating Idah and Sargent which is just bizarre.    Tzolis and even Rashica could be playing, and would could develop our own instead of improving Aston Villa’s next generation!

Ideally they would have scouted a youngster or two with pace and athleticism to develop some proper CDMs who could make us competitive and hard to beat.    We’d have something brewing, some potential, some hope!   

The attitude would be different, so would the fans patience!    Smith failed but he was always required to pursue promotion and with this lot, that was never realistic.

I'm firmly of the belief that if Burnley had appointed Dean Smith they would be about 9th.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

Just now, TeemuVanBasten said:

I'm firmly of the belief that if Burnley had appointed Dean Smith they would be about 9th.

You could be right.    In hindsight he wasn’t for us, he failed like I said, but he was pursuing promotion, not developing a team.   Even then he probably wasn’t the right person and I like Wagner so far, he’s seems so much better to develop this, I just hope they let him.    He won’t if we get promoted though.   

[repman 635]

Even if we went up I fear we'd be simply delaying an even bigger failure. Since the end of the 20/21 season we've been very short sighted in my view. There's no doubt that the pandemic played a part in that, with a second promotion being vital in helping cover up losses. It's what made us go for short term signings like Hugill and Gibson in 20/21 and also what prompted a big (for us) splash in the transfer market in 21/22, as well as Farke's sacking. Both of them were near desperate moves just hoping that we'd do enough to stay up. I suspect the fact we were pretty much destined for the drop from November onwards is what prompted the search for new investment too. Even this season we've decided to stick more than twist.

It's been time to rip it up and start again for at least 3 seasons now in my view, but the financial situation post pandemic didn't allow us to do that. Hopefully with Attanasio's greater wealth, compared to the current owners anyway, we will have a bit more leeway and not be so beholden to promotion in the short term.

[Nuff Said 5,131]

6 hours ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

Simplistic as it is, this is basically true though.  Fergie was a great manager but it's no coincidence that Man Yoo spent more than everyone else for many of those years, ditto Mooreeno at Chelski, Pep at Citeh.  Newcastle will win the league within the next 5 years - put your house on it.  Of course it's not a guarantee but it's usually pretty accurate.

So when it happens it proves your point, but it doesn’t happen all the time? Sounds to me like it isn’t that true then.
 

Obviously money helps, but it is by no means the only factor. 

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,023]

Given that Mr Webber set a target of Norwich City being in the top 26 of teams in England it would be a failure.........

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

9 hours ago, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said:

Given that Mr Webber set a target of Norwich City being in the top 26 of teams in England it would be a failure.........

That was just the first 5 years, the 5 year plan.

We're in year 6 now, huge regression and wasting a fortune was always part of the 10 year plan, it was just top secret. 

[canarydan23 4,060]

The majority of bookies and pundits had us clear favourites for top 2. With our wage bill and relative resources, and the fact that unlike the other two relegated teams we had a net spend in our summer transfer dealings, you can make a strong case that finishing IN the playoffs is a failure.

Finishing outside of the top 6 would be a massive failure.

[yellowrider120 762]

21 hours ago, Nuff Said said:

I still think there’s a massive sense of entitlement among posters. The “one of the biggest wage bills/transfer budgets” argument is extremely simplistic, otherwise league tables would simply be a money table. We have to cope with a myriad of factors, including indifferent support at home, the wrong head coach, taking too long to get rid of him and the impact on the team of relegation to mention a few. Some relegated teams bounce back to the PL but many don’t. 

But ultimately finishing outside the playoffs would be a failure, yes.

Many, many good points here. However, you are being generous with the description of 'indifferent' support at FCR! It's been awful and each time Wagner tries to cajole us out of our slumbers with a rallying cry it doesn't work. He must be dreadfully disappointed with the lack of our famous.........'atmosphere'!   Get to 85 minutes (at latest) and irrespective of scoreline, importance of the match or how well we are playing, the North Folk faithful start heading for the exits and in significant numbers. To be honest I'm getting very embarrassed by it. 

[simmo_2 6]

18 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

In that case we need to be state owned at the very least because we have been very successful over the last dozen years. (In the context of the club we are).

No we have not. NCFC have been a embarrassment.

Clubs of similar size to NCFC who have been successful are Leicester, Brighton, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Now Fulham showing how not to be a embarrassment.

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,531]

1 hour ago, simmo_2 said:

No we have not. NCFC have been a embarrassment.

Clubs of similar size to NCFC who have been successful are Leicester, Brighton, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Now Fulham showing how not to be a embarrassment.

 

 

Over the next dozen years your embarrassment should end then. I'm looking forward to it...

[hogesar 9,658]

2 hours ago, yellowrider120 said:

Many, many good points here. However, you are being generous with the description of 'indifferent' support at FCR! It's been awful and each time Wagner tries to cajole us out of our slumbers with a rallying cry it doesn't work. He must be dreadfully disappointed with the lack of our famous.........'atmosphere'!   Get to 85 minutes (at latest) and irrespective of scoreline, importance of the match or how well we are playing, the North Folk faithful start heading for the exits and in significant numbers. To be honest I'm getting very embarrassed by it. 

Yes. Wagner has tried everything possible but our fans just aren't interested in supporting from the stands for the most part, which is a shame because Wagner has at the very least earned that.

Even when we drag a drum out (because it's the only thing that's worked so far to create consistent atmosphere) half the crowd are complaining about it. 

[AJ 1,218]

Not finishing in the top 6 would be criminal. We should have been aiming for the top two. The club was absolutely wrong to appoint Smith in the first place, after sacking Farke and finding none of their original targets were interested. Secondly, they should have acted faster to dispose of Smith if they had a better target lined up. It was so obvious for so long that it wasn't working under Smith, and the moment he attacked the fans he should have gone. 

[Nuff Said 5,131]

4 hours ago, simmo_2 said:

No we have not. NCFC have been a embarrassment.

Clubs of similar size to NCFC who have been successful are Leicester, Brighton, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Now Fulham showing how not to be a embarrassment.

 

 

Jeez, are people still trotting this nonsense out.

 

Sheffield United

Middlesborough

Blackburn

West Brom

Coventry

Sunderland

Bristol City

Stoke

Reading

Birmingham 

QPR

Cardiff

Sheffield Wednesday 

Ipswich 

Derby 

Bolton 

Portsmouth 

Charlton

Cambridge 

Bradford 

Northampton 

Notts County 

 

could all be considered similar to us in different ways. How many of them would love to have done what we did over the last ten years?

Edited March 14, 2023 by Nuff Said

[canarybubbles 1,915]

53 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Jeez, are people still trotting this nonsense out.

 

Sheffield United

Middlesborough

Blackburn

West Brom

Coventry

Sunderland

Bristol City

Stoke

Reading

Birmingham 

QPR

Cardiff

Sheffield Wednesday 

Ipswich 

Derby 

Bolton 

Portsmouth 

Charlton

Cambridge 

Bradford 

Northampton 

Notts County 

 

could all be considered similar to us in different ways. How many of them would love to have done what we did over the last ten years?

Not arguing with your overall point, Nuff Said - I agree with your sentiment entirely. But why are Cambridge in there?

[king canary 7,604]

1 hour ago, Nuff Said said:

Jeez, are people still trotting this nonsense out.

 

Sheffield United

Middlesborough

Blackburn

West Brom

Coventry

Sunderland

Bristol City

Stoke

Reading

Birmingham 

QPR

Cardiff

Sheffield Wednesday 

Ipswich 

Derby 

Bolton 

Portsmouth 

Charlton

Cambridge 

Bradford 

Northampton 

Notts County 

 

could all be considered similar to us in different ways. How many of them would love to have done what we did over the last ten years?

Some very random names in this list- Northampton? Cambridge? Notts County? I don't think any of those teams would be considered similar to us.

I'd argue that Stoke (6 top flight seasons in the last 10 years, 3 top half Prem finishes, League Cup Semi final) and West Brom (7 top flight seasons in the last 10, 2 top half Prem seasons) likely won't be swapping us for the last decade. Heck widen it out a bit and you've got teams like Boro, Pompey and Birmingham who have both won major domestic trophies and played in Europe in the last 20 years. Quite a few of these teams also can point to longer spells in the top flight than we've managed in the last 10 or 20 years.

What we've been over time is largely consistent- the highs haven't been as high as several on this list but the lows also haven't been as low. We've not had to shake buckets outside the ground and worry about whethe we've got a club next season, we've not had to spend our time travelling to watch us play Newport in League Two but we've also not got to play in Europe or see our team in a cup final at Wembley or even avoid top flight relegation since 2013. 

We're firmly in the middle of this particular pack for achievement over the last 10-20 years in my view.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

But where does this expectation come from. One top three finish and three FA Cup semis in 120 years?

[king canary 7,604]

4 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

But where does this expectation come from. One top three finish and three FA Cup semis in 120 years?

Who's expectation? I never said anything about my expectations but I'm not the one claiming we've out performed teams who have done these things.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

Just now, king canary said:

Who's expectation? I never said anything about my expectations but I'm not the one claiming we've out performed teams who have done these things.

If I'd have been replying to you I'd have quoted you. The expectation is on this thread.

[king canary 7,604]

1 minute ago, nutty nigel said:

If I'd have been replying to you I'd have quoted you. The expectation is on this thread.

Well if we're talking about the expectations of finishing top 6, I'd guess you'd need to take that up with whoever set our goal to be a top 26 club.

[nutty nigel 7,531]

5 minutes ago, king canary said:

Well if we're talking about the expectations of finishing top 6, I'd guess you'd need to take that up with whoever set our goal to be a top 26 club.

Thanks

But I'd rather use personal experience and post my opinion on here.

[Nuff Said 5,131]

57 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

Not arguing with your overall point, Nuff Said - I agree with your sentiment entirely. But why are Cambridge in there?

 

38 minutes ago, king canary said:

Some very random names in this list- Northampton? Cambridge? Notts County? I don't think any of those teams would be considered similar to us.

I'd argue that Stoke (6 top flight seasons in the last 10 years, 3 top half Prem finishes, League Cup Semi final) and West Brom (7 top flight seasons in the last 10, 2 top half Prem seasons) likely won't be swapping us for the last decade. Heck widen it out a bit and you've got teams like Boro, Pompey and Birmingham who have both won major domestic trophies and played in Europe in the last 20 years. Quite a few of these teams also can point to longer spells in the top flight than we've managed in the last 10 or 20 years.

What we've been over time is largely consistent- the highs haven't been as high as several on this list but the lows also haven't been as low. We've not had to shake buckets outside the ground and worry about whethe we've got a club next season, we've not had to spend our time travelling to watch us play Newport in League Two but we've also not got to play in Europe or see our team in a cup final at Wembley or even avoid top flight relegation since 2013. 

We're firmly in the middle of this particular pack for achievement over the last 10-20 years in my view.

I’ll give you Cambridge. Hard to get the place out of awareness on here though because of @cambridgeshire canary!
 

But this wasn’t meant to be a scientific rigorous study. The point is there are many, many more clubs who are similar, whether in size of the city, potential support, income or whatever, who have not performed as we have as opposed to the five teams simmo listed as apparently embarrassing because they are currently doing better. A second point is that while Fulham’s position is now looking desirable, a couple of years ago, it wasn’t. As KC says, we have proved to be consistent.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Nuff Said

[TheBaldOne66 682]

On 13/03/2023 at 17:16, Nuff Said said:

I still think there’s a massive sense of entitlement among posters. The “one of the biggest wage bills/transfer budgets” argument is extremely simplistic, otherwise league tables would simply be a money table. We have to cope with a myriad of factors, including indifferent support at home, the wrong head coach, taking too long to get rid of him and the impact on the team of relegation to mention a few. Some relegated teams bounce back to the PL but many don’t. 

But ultimately finishing outside the playoffs would be a failure, yes.

You forgot Webber bringing in some God awful players too

[Nuff Said 5,131]

Just now, TheBaldOne66 said:

You forgot Webber bringing in some God awful players too

It could be argued there’s a sense of entitlement there too, or at least unrealistic expectations. When Sargent turned out not to be a PL top scorer, he was roundly condemned as terrible. This season has shown he is very much not that. For what we paid, he’s a decent buy.
 

There’s a better argument that we are still buying injured players because they’re cheap, hoping they will recover but experience should have told us it rarely happens, so not worth the gamble. Losing Hayden effectively for the season could be the difference between reaching, or succeeding, in the playoffs.

[canarydan23 4,060]

1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

But where does this expectation come from. One top three finish and three FA Cup semis in 120 years?

Who's expecting us to finish top three or reach FA Cup semis?