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essex canary

194,512 New Shares - a Theory

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How did they get to 194,512?

Perhaps they worked out the number of shares they would like to change hands (minorities plus any D&M would like to shed) then have planned for MA to invest 50:50 between new money and buyouts?

If so could mean MA becoming the majority shareholder in a ratio of say 2:1 with D&M.

On that basis MA would own two thirds of the Club acquired at a relatively cheap price of around £50 million. 

It may also be a route to stadium expansion and for everyone to claim credit.

Any thoughts?

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28 minutes ago, essex canary said:

How did they get to 194,512?

Perhaps they worked out the number of shares they would like to change hands (minorities plus any D&M would like to shed) then have planned for MA to invest 50:50 between new money and buyouts?

If so could mean MA becoming the majority shareholder in a ratio of say 2:1 with D&M.

On that basis MA would own two thirds of the Club acquired at a relatively cheap price of around £50 million. 

It may also be a route to stadium expansion and for everyone to claim credit.

Any thoughts?

If you add 1+9+4+5+1+2 you get 22.

If you add 2+2 you get 4.

Makes you think.

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36 minutes ago, essex canary said:

How did they get to 194,512?

Perhaps they worked out the number of shares they would like to change hands (minorities plus any D&M would like to shed) then have planned for MA to invest 50:50 between new money and buyouts?

If so could mean MA becoming the majority shareholder in a ratio of say 2:1 with D&M.

On that basis MA would own two thirds of the Club acquired at a relatively cheap price of around £50 million. 

It may also be a route to stadium expansion and for everyone to claim credit.

Any thoughts?

Yes. Stop torturing yourself with tis illusion that you have the slightest idea of whats going on. Oh , and stop torturing us with it too. 

As they say round here.... fack off  you snipey cont. 😇 

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15 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

If you add 1+9+4+5+1+2 you get 22.

If you add 2+2 you get 4.

Makes you think.

"2" can be a symbol in an unary number system, in which case 2 + 2 = 22, is correct. In this case, 22, however it's being pronounced, means two.

And Marky Mark or Murky Mark could quite easily juggle to make it all good for him. Enjoy the ride. 

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39 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Well I suspect it won't be a £100 a share.

A bargain then for MA? To be fair perhaps not given 40 points from last 45 home matches in front of a crowd and a goals tally for NCFC of half (+1) of what our opponents have scored.

Edited by essex canary

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Multiply 194,512 by itself and you get the GPS coordinates for the lost island of Atlantis. If that isn’t proof enough of the significance of what might otherwise seem to be a random number £19.4512 million is also exactly how much Watling walleted by selling Chase’s shares to S&J.

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194,512 is also the number of innocent construction workers who died when Luke Skywalker blew up the Death Star. They were just simple men trying to make their way in the universe. 

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2 minutes ago, The Raptor said:

194,512 is also the number of innocent construction workers who died when Luke Skywalker blew up the Death Star. They were just simple men trying to make their way in the universe. 

I must pull you up on this one, Luke blew up the original Death Star which was completed, Lando and Antilles blew up the second Death Star which was being built round the Endor. 😉

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12 minutes ago, Indy said:

I must pull you up on this one, Luke blew up the original Death Star which was completed, Lando and Antilles blew up the second Death Star which was being built round the Endor. 😉

I stand corrected. How did I mess that up?! I'll never be a jedi!

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I thought it was the square root of pi plus our xg from yesterday all multiplied by 100,000.

Then again I may have exaggerated yesterday's xg?

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14 hours ago, essex canary said:

How did they get to 194,512?

Perhaps they worked out the number of shares they would like to change hands (minorities plus any D&M would like to shed) then have planned for MA to invest 50:50 between new money and buyouts?

If so could mean MA becoming the majority shareholder in a ratio of say 2:1 with D&M.

On that basis MA would own two thirds of the Club acquired at a relatively cheap price of around £50 million. 

It may also be a route to stadium expansion and for everyone to claim credit.

Any thoughts?

A theory, or random guesswork?

There’s no obvious explanation, certainly not without knowing the exact number of shares already in the hands of MA, and, even then, it might not be apparent.

Oh, for a bit of transparency…

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Am I right in thinking there's loans to clear,  Could it be that this magical number could be designed to generate the money to pay those off?   Thinking it could be part of the agreement of MA coming in.   

Delia/MWJ have said they don't want to make money from the club, but clearly their shares will make them money -  Perhaps this is a way of offsetting that to create a balance?

Edited by Google Bot

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12 hours ago, essex canary said:

A bargain then for MA? To be fair perhaps not given 40 points from last 45 home matches in front of a crowd and a goals tally for NCFC of half (+1) of what our opponents have scored.

Presumably someone at the club knows precisely how many shares there are? The unknown factor is how much Attanasio will pay for them. Obviously from a fan perspective I hope he pays less for the shares and invests more on players. 

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6 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

Am I right in thinking there's loans to clear,  Could it be that this magical number could be designed to generate the money to pay those off?   Thinking it could be part of the agreement of MA coming in.   

Delia/MWJ have said they don't want to make money from the club, but clearly their shares will make them money -  Perhaps this is a way of offsetting that to create a balance?

We know from the last accounts that the Club had last season drawn down against future parachute payments, effectively taking an advance on this season’s income. This isn’t necessarily a problem if it’s spent wisely…

Anyway, far more likely is that has caused cash flow issues for this season, hence why there’s a need for further capital injection now.

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17 minutes ago, GMF said:

We know from the last accounts that the Club had last season drawn down against future parachute payments, effectively taking an advance on this season’s income. This isn’t necessarily a problem if it’s spent wisely…

Anyway, far more likely is that has caused cash flow issues for this season, hence why there’s a need for further capital injection now.

The only thing peculiar about that is that the general business principle is to have a capital injection to increase cash flows in future.

Football tends to work the other way about.

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24 minutes ago, GMF said:

We know from the last accounts that the Club had last season drawn down against future parachute payments, effectively taking an advance on this season’s income. This isn’t necessarily a problem if it’s spent wisely…

So most likely some kind of short-term loan, We were down about 40m weren't we?  

That's got to factor into things here if MA is looking at injecting money and it's to improve the squad most likely wants guarantees that it's not going into clearing debt.  (I'm guessing).

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11 minutes ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

I suspect the long and the short of it is that after all this xg-ery, what-a-bout f*ckery and other miscellaneous jiggery-pokery NCFC will have a new majority shareholder after 13th February 2023.

 

Bring it on! Just a gamble we have to take.

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18 minutes ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

I suspect the long and the short of it is that after all this xg-ery, what-a-bout f*ckery and other miscellaneous jiggery-pokery NCFC will have a new majority shareholder after 13th February 2023.

 

If MA has actually already acquired the minority share’s interest previously owned by the Jones family, plus the old Trust and Carters, then yes. If not, no, but it will be very close.

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41 minutes ago, GMF said:

If MA has actually already acquired the minority share’s interest previously owned by the Jones family, plus the old Trust and Carters, then yes. If not, no, but it will be very close.

How would that be? If he has got what you quote plus all the new shares that would only be around say 325k of the 811k in issue. He must need some of D&Ms to get to majority status.

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As I have said elsewhere, my view is:

  • The 194,512 shares will be bought by Attanasio at par (i.e. he will pay just £194,512 for these shares). 
  • I also assume Attanasio has acquired enough of Foulger's friends minority share holding already to hold around 24% of current shares;
  • Attanasio will acquire shares from Smith & Jones, which on completion of the transactions next week leaves them with about 10% of the new enlarged shareholding, in order for them to retain some form of say in the running of the club albeit diminished;
  • The above transaction with be a trigger event, thus converting Attanasio's C Preference Shares into Ordinary shares;
  • As a result I expect Attanasio's shareholding will be just over 85%, Smith & Jones about 10%, with other minority shareholders (including myself) holding the balance. 
  • Now having effective control of the club, Attanasio will advance money to the club in the form of a loan (probably via one his many companies), to pay off the remainder of the £65m short term loans taken out against the security of parachute payments. The new loan will be for the long term so as to improve the financial stability of the club, will not be securitised in anyway, but will no doubt have a coupon rate of 8-10%.
  • The clearance of the short term loans will mean the parachute payments when received are now available for team building. It is the parachute monies alone that will be used for team building in the short term, so no major step change in what happens in recruitment.

I'm not going to bet on this being the outcome next week, but I'd be very surprised and potentially a little upset if it didn't pan out this way.

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14 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

 £19.4512 million is also exactly how much Watling walleted by selling Chase’s shares to S&J.

You have obviously been talking to our old friend Tangible Fixed Assets.

Edited by TIL 1010

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27 minutes ago, essex canary said:

How would that be? If he has got what you quote plus all the new shares that would only be around say 325k of the 811k in issue. He must need some of D&Ms to get to majority status.

MF (98,000) plus ex-Jones (23,278) plus old Trust (10,219) plus Carter’s (7,500) = 138,997. Add in the 194,512 would give MA 333,509. 

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45 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

As I have said elsewhere, my view is:

  • The 194,512 shares will be bought by Attanasio at par (i.e. he will pay just £194,512 for these shares). 
  • I also assume Attanasio has acquired enough of Foulger's friends minority share holding already to hold around 24% of current shares;
  • Attanasio will acquire shares from Smith & Jones, which on completion of the transactions next week leaves them with about 10% of the new enlarged shareholding, in order for them to retain some form of say in the running of the club albeit diminished;
  • The above transaction with be a trigger event, thus converting Attanasio's C Preference Shares into Ordinary shares;
  • As a result I expect Attanasio's shareholding will be just over 85%, Smith & Jones about 10%, with other minority shareholders (including myself) holding the balance. 
  • Now having effective control of the club, Attanasio will advance money to the club in the form of a loan (probably via one his many companies), to pay off the remainder of the £65m short term loans taken out against the security of parachute payments. The new loan will be for the long term so as to improve the financial stability of the club, will not be securitised in anyway, but will no doubt have a coupon rate of 8-10%.
  • The clearance of the short term loans will mean the parachute payments when received are now available for team building. It is the parachute monies alone that will be used for team building in the short term, so no major step change in what happens in recruitment.

I'm not going to bet on this being the outcome next week, but I'd be very surprised and potentially a little upset if it didn't pan out this way.

Shef, I would be prepared to bet that at the least Attanasio will break the 30 per cent mark and so have to make an offer for all the other shares.

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