Krul or Gunn?

[Ken Hairy 3,760]

Looks like McGovern then 🙄

[alex_ncfc 649]

"BuT gUnN dOeSn'T mAkE MisTaKeS" 👏🏻

[Capt. Pants 4,202]

Wagner's search for a goalkeeper.... continues.

[NFN FC 1,123]

I think we should get Gunn and Krul. Chop their legs off. Stick Gunn's legs on Krul's body. Throw the rest out. That way we'd have a decent leader and shotstopper that can pass out from the back. 

[lake district canary 4,531]

5 hours ago, alex_ncfc said:

He is a terrible keeper, well below the standard of what we should expect at Norwich. If it wasn't for his surname, no one would be raving about Gunn starting. Even in the 2017-18 season, he looked well below the standard.

Rubbish, he had a very good season 17/18.

[Newtopia 517]

4 hours ago, alex_ncfc said:

"BuT gUnN dOeSn'T mAkE MisTaKeS" 👏🏻

Everyone makes mistakes

[Ward 3 371]

Gunn is so ****. Look at the last few goals he has conceded. Especially against Bristol City. Utterly pathetic and is too skinny to be a keeper. Need someone how ruddy is/was for us. A beast and a unit along with actually saving some **** poor shots

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

Gunn probably should have saved that shot, and most times he would. But Krul's errors - unnecessarily gifting goals to the opposition - are of a different order altogether.

[Jersey Canary 143]

Let’s hope we can recover £3m for Gunn off Rangers.  I’ve never rated Gunn.

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Gunn probably should have saved that shot, and most times he would. But Krul's errors - unnecessarily gifting goals to the opposition - are of a different order altogether.

That doesn’t explain the reason why we rarely win with Gunn in goal, wish I understood it.

[repman 634]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

That doesn’t explain the reason why we rarely win with Gunn in goal, wish I understood it.

Well in the 14 games we've played we haven't scored in 6 of them, so that's already nearly half that we aren't going to win which I would say is unfair to leave at his door.

[Well b back 3,190]

8 hours ago, repman said:

Well in the 14 games we've played we haven't scored in 6 of them, so that's already nearly half that we aren't going to win which I would say is unfair to leave at his door.

I am not laying it at his door, but trying to work out why we rarely win with Gunn in goal, but most of our wins are with Krul in goal, the stats are quite eye opening. I will stand corrected if they are out, and I have used 90 minute scores.

Krul P 17 W 10 D 3 L 4

Gunn P 16 W 3 D 5 L 8

Transfer those point ratio’s over a season, Krul’s figures have us 3rd or 4th, Gunns figures have us relegated with possibly the lowest points total ever in the championship. And strangely we have scored in 15 out of the 17 games Krul has played and 10 times in Gunns 16 games.

I can’t put my finger on it, so I am not putting the blame at anyones door, just trying to make sense of those stats. I would love to think it’s just bad luck, but like I said they are quite unusual and I for one can’t explain it.

[canarybubbles 1,915]

The general wisdom is that we are very fortunate to have two keepers of their calibre fighting for first place. But I wonder if this might be having the opposite effect, making them both nervous and therefore prone to mistakes.

[canarybubbles 1,915]

6 hours ago, Well b back said:

I am not laying it at his door, but trying to work out why we rarely win with Gunn in goal, but most of our wins are with Krul in goal, the stats are quite eye opening. I will stand corrected if they are out, and I have used 90 minute scores.

Krul P 17 W 10 D 3 L 4

Gunn P 16 W 3 D 5 L 8

Transfer those point ratio’s over a season, Krul’s figures have us 3rd or 4th, Gunns figures have us relegated with possibly the lowest points total ever in the championship. And strangely we have scored in 15 out of the 17 games Krul has played and 10 times in Gunns 16 games.

I can’t put my finger on it, so I am not putting the blame at anyones door, just trying to make sense of those stats. I would love to think it’s just bad luck, but like I said they are quite unusual and I for one can’t explain it.

I know it's a cliché but correlation does not prove causation. This could just be coincidence. The sample size is small, and, unlike the stats comparing games with or without Buendia, there is no obvious reason for the stats. The only possible one I can think of is that the players have more confidence in Krul and therefore are more willing to attack, therefore score more goals, and therefore win more matches, but this seems a very tenuous argument to me.

[repman 634]

16 hours ago, Well b back said:

I am not laying it at his door, but trying to work out why we rarely win with Gunn in goal, but most of our wins are with Krul in goal, the stats are quite eye opening. I will stand corrected if they are out, and I have used 90 minute scores.

Krul P 17 W 10 D 3 L 4

Gunn P 16 W 3 D 5 L 8

Transfer those point ratio’s over a season, Krul’s figures have us 3rd or 4th, Gunns figures have us relegated with possibly the lowest points total ever in the championship. And strangely we have scored in 15 out of the 17 games Krul has played and 10 times in Gunns 16 games.

I can’t put my finger on it, so I am not putting the blame at anyones door, just trying to make sense of those stats. I would love to think it’s just bad luck, but like I said they are quite unusual and I for one can’t explain it.

I think the keeper is a pretty independent role in comparison to every other player on the pitch. It's similar in a way to pitchers in baseball, and over the years it's been established that win/loss ratio isn't a good barometer of the pitcher's skill. You can quickly dig deeper into the goals to get a clearer view. I said already about us not scoring in Gunn's games and you rightly point out that we have scored more whenever Krul has played. My view is that neither of them have any impact on our attacking play, the only possible involvement I could see argued for is playing out the back and I think the consensus is that they're both more likely to hinder rather than help in that regard.

Gunn came into the side after we lost to Preston at home, which marked the end of the unbeaten run under Smith. Most on here were saying that our form wasn't going to hold up, and looking back at the time of Smith's sacking it was clear that run had generally come against the weaker sides in the league. You could then say that the downturn in results was much more than the simple change of keeper.

If you look at the teams above us in the table and who played in goal vs them:

Burnley - Gunn/Krul
Sheff U - Gunn
Middlesbrough - Gunn
Luton - Gunn/Gunn
Millwall - Krul
Watford - Gunn/Gunn
Sunderland - Krul
Blackburn - Gunn
West Brom - Krul

That's 8-4 in Gunn's favour. The likelihood is that we are an average side who will finish somewhere in the middle of the league. As a result you'd expect us to lose to those above and beat those below, if each keeper played either those above or below then I'm sure their records would look wildly different. It's obviously not so simple but Gunn is also clear of Krul in the more advanced metrics we have to rate keepers (although these are far from perfect).