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Is promotion to the EPL worth it? This may help decide.

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Swiss Ramble has done a very good piece of work of the financial impact of getting promotion from the championship, the impact of relegation and even yo-yoing, looking at the impact of it on club's finances whilst trying to clear a few myths. Most surprising from my point of view is Norwich are one of a very small number of clubs who actually experience a downturn in matchday income on promotion, highlighting again how there must be scope for ground expansion sooner rather than later.

FWIW the article can be found here,  

The Impact of Promotion to the Premier League (substack.com)

This is Swiss Ramble's conclusion:

The Impact of Promotion to the Premier League

Conclusion

So, there we have it, the description of the “£170m match” is a little simplistic in terms of how much a club’s revenue will increase, and also ignores the impact of higher investment on profitability. Money will be required to strengthen the squad, both in terms of wages and transfer fees, and also to improve stadium facilities.

Nevertheless, there should still be a net improvement in a club’s finances, so it is undoubtedly true that there is a huge amount of money at stake in the Championship play-off final. Of course, it is then up to the winner to spend it wisely – and history tells us that there’s no guarantee of that.

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oh, I’m afraid it’s much, much worse than that 😂


We are in a greeeeeeey area right now when it comes to domestic football, it really is a big mess. Reflective of a lot of society post COVID.

A lot of clubs have a crisis of purpose, not knowing what they are about ans what they are trying to do, simply existing in the league.

The bigger clubs have always had more resources, more cash and access to facilities and better players, but the gulf is widening and the idea of a closed league has not gone away. The big clubs and more crucially their owners want a closed, controlled league. This will happen, and to be fair it has to happen.

Already when we watch football we watch “our” football (Norwich, our immediate peers) and we watch “their” football (a north London derby, a big team clash etc) it already IS. a two tier league. Our two footballs interconnect sometimes and that can fun, unless you are getting hammered by billionaires every week (see last season) but it’s not fun for the real football fans. That being young people in the Far East and Americans who have no idea what’s going on but like the general energy.

The big clubs are becoming way too big to handle. Their resources are now astron9mical next to everyone else. And while there are always plucky teams that do well like Brentford and Fulham and Brighton this year the “new fans” don’t tune in to them unless they are watching their adopted big team smash them.

Just focus on the fact that Norwich City is your team, it represents Norfolk and everything that’s good about it and whether we continue in purgatory for a few more years or get cut off from the “big boys” this is the club that you chose or chose you. All that truly matters is Norwich City FC.

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Thanks for the post. 👍

Two observation:

1. It is obviously not Swiss Ramble's fault, but sometimes the covid pandemic will have impacted some of the figures/ tables. 

2. I was interested impact of the change in owner financing upon promotion - which demonstrates a very "cloudy" picture to say the least. Whilst I would not object to a squillionaire owner, the correlation between extra owner finacing and staying up seems extremely weak on the basis of this data.

Fulham x 2, and Middlesborough went down following extra financing, whilst Leeds, Villa, Wolves and Brighton stayed up - ratio 3:4, suggesting only a marginal advantage to securing extra financing from the owners.

Burnley, Sheff U, Huddersfield and Newcastle stayed up without financing (or owners actually withdrawing money). City, Hull, West Brom and Cardiff went down in the same circumstances. A ratio of 4:4 - suggesting no actual impact if an owner fails to add money or actually withdraws it..

If we look at owners that have actually withdrawn money upon promotion, Sheff U, Huddersfield and Newcastle stayed up whilst West Brom and Cardiff went down. A ratio of 3:2 in favour of withdrawing money!

On this basis, if we are promoted in the future, it is not at all clear if extra funding from Attenasio would make any difference at all and there is some evidence to suggest that we might actually stand a better chance if he withdrew money!

I'm not actually suggesting this, but just using the evidence to question the view that extra funding from owners is the only way to stay up.

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13 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

oh, I’m afraid it’s much, much worse than that 😂


We are in a greeeeeeey area right now when it comes to domestic football, it really is a big mess. Reflective of a lot of society post COVID.

A lot of clubs have a crisis of purpose, not knowing what they are about ans what they are trying to do, simply existing in the league.

The bigger clubs have always had more resources, more cash and access to facilities and better players, but the gulf is widening and the idea of a closed league has not gone away. The big clubs and more crucially their owners want a closed, controlled league. This will happen, and to be fair it has to happen.

Already when we watch football we watch “our” football (Norwich, our immediate peers) and we watch “their” football (a north London derby, a big team clash etc) it already IS. a two tier league. Our two footballs interconnect sometimes and that can fun, unless you are getting hammered by billionaires every week (see last season) but it’s not fun for the real football fans. That being young people in the Far East and Americans who have no idea what’s going on but like the general energy.

The big clubs are becoming way too big to handle. Their resources are now astron9mical next to everyone else. And while there are always plucky teams that do well like Brentford and Fulham and Brighton this year the “new fans” don’t tune in to them unless they are watching their adopted big team smash them.

Just focus on the fact that Norwich City is your team, it represents Norfolk and everything that’s good about it and whether we continue in purgatory for a few more years or get cut off from the “big boys” this is the club that you chose or chose you. All that truly matters is Norwich City FC.

I think that this is your best post ever Buh....

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13 minutes ago, cornish sam said:

I think that this is your best post ever Buh....

Not a high bar, TBF.

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It's not worth anything to 'us' though. We don't get any money. Tickets don't get any cheaper. Our club don't really get any money. However big the TV deals get the player budgets increase likewise.

At least the last couple of times we've invested in the training facilities. Without that we'd have nothing to show for all the recent PL seasons.

Football success is all about other people's money. 

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7 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

It's not worth anything to 'us' though. We don't get any money. Tickets don't get any cheaper. Our club don't really get any money. However big the TV deals get the player budgets increase likewise.

At least the last couple of times we've invested in the training facilities. Without that we'd have nothing to show for all the recent PL seasons.

Football success is all about other people's money. 

It just means we have had a successful Championship season to me. And that is as important as money.

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1 hour ago, The Real Buh said:

oh, I’m afraid it’s much, much worse than that 😂


We are in a greeeeeeey area right now when it comes to domestic football, it really is a big mess. Reflective of a lot of society post COVID.

A lot of clubs have a crisis of purpose, not knowing what they are about ans what they are trying to do, simply existing in the league.

The bigger clubs have always had more resources, more cash and access to facilities and better players, but the gulf is widening and the idea of a closed league has not gone away. The big clubs and more crucially their owners want a closed, controlled league. This will happen, and to be fair it has to happen.

Already when we watch football we watch “our” football (Norwich, our immediate peers) and we watch “their” football (a north London derby, a big team clash etc) it already IS. a two tier league. Our two footballs interconnect sometimes and that can fun, unless you are getting hammered by billionaires every week (see last season) but it’s not fun for the real football fans. That being young people in the Far East and Americans who have no idea what’s going on but like the general energy.

The big clubs are becoming way too big to handle. Their resources are now astron9mical next to everyone else. And while there are always plucky teams that do well like Brentford and Fulham and Brighton this year the “new fans” don’t tune in to them unless they are watching their adopted big team smash them.

Just focus on the fact that Norwich City is your team, it represents Norfolk and everything that’s good about it and whether we continue in purgatory for a few more years or get cut off from the “big boys” this is the club that you chose or chose you. All that truly matters is Norwich City FC.

Maybe you should tell Everton that. Are they a big club? Are Leeds?

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1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Maybe you should tell Everton that. Are they a big club? Are Leeds?

I think there’s anger there because the fans know what’s coming.

Basically, Who’s the next Sunderland?

Especially Everton, they’ve struggled with what they are as a club for ages and now that other clubs are doing so much better they see what’s coming next.

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It's simple maths really. At least 34 clubs think they belong in the PL but only 17 stay there each season.

Everton are well due some time away to reflect on that.

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1 hour ago, The Real Buh said:

oh, I’m afraid it’s much, much worse than that 😂


We are in a greeeeeeey area right now when it comes to domestic football, it really is a big mess. Reflective of a lot of society post COVID.

A lot of clubs have a crisis of purpose, not knowing what they are about ans what they are trying to do, simply existing in the league.

The bigger clubs have always had more resources, more cash and access to facilities and better players, but the gulf is widening and the idea of a closed league has not gone away. The big clubs and more crucially their owners want a closed, controlled league. This will happen, and to be fair it has to happen.

Already when we watch football we watch “our” football (Norwich, our immediate peers) and we watch “their” football (a north London derby, a big team clash etc) it already IS. a two tier league. Our two footballs interconnect sometimes and that can fun, unless you are getting hammered by billionaires every week (see last season) but it’s not fun for the real football fans. That being young people in the Far East and Americans who have no idea what’s going on but like the general energy.

The big clubs are becoming way too big to handle. Their resources are now astron9mical next to everyone else. And while there are always plucky teams that do well like Brentford and Fulham and Brighton this year the “new fans” don’t tune in to them unless they are watching their adopted big team smash them.

Just focus on the fact that Norwich City is your team, it represents Norfolk and everything that’s good about it and whether we continue in purgatory for a few more years or get cut off from the “big boys” this is the club that you chose or chose you. All that truly matters is Norwich City FC.

Bring on the European Super league! 

We should be making signs that say "Chelsea out" "Man City out" 

Take your money and sh1tty 'football' for TV and jog on 

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How will this work out in future given the proposed increase in resources from the PL to the EFL and proposed abandonment of parachute payments?

At a guess we will probably have healthier TV receipts in any non-parachutte Championship season probably 20 to 30 million - perhaps double our gate receipts. A good deal in general that will hopefully bring far more stability whichever division we are in.

The (arguable) downside is that we won't get those healthy ( or unhealthy) parachute receipts in the 2 seasons or so after relegation. That will remove the speculation of last season. Whether it is more helpful to surviving in the PL or otherwise it will hopefully promote more stability of the playing squad which seems a good prospect.

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Unfortunately football / the premier League has grown too big it's now too powerful and unstoppable.

Constraints should have been put in place years ago that a percentage of all the sky money goes to the lower leagues to build a sustainable grass roots movement.

Can you imagine 100m being syphoned into league one or league two and shared amongst all the teams to fund a sustainable model.

It's in the power of the big teams to do this but it's never going to happen.

The big money has won and we need a reformation of English football.

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In my opinion the issue with getting promoted is based on the hope the club can compete and keep moving forwards.

These days the “hope” of competing in the premier league is well and truly gone. We can’t, not over a season. The last two premier league seasons have destroyed any “hope” I have that we can compete.

I mean Wolves and Leeds have both signed players for  circa 40 million quid. 

Edited by Ulfotto

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