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Pyro Pete

The TNC boys interview the Attanasios

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14 minutes ago, repman said:

I think it's important to say that Moneyball follows a baseball team through the 2002 season. If you think of how technology has come on since then it's not hard to imagine that we might be better at modelling more complex sports nowadays. The main 'stat' used in Moneyball, the on-base percentage, can be calculated all back to 1871 due to it's simplicity. While football is very complicated and fluid compared to baseball, it can in essence be bottled down to a game of shots. That's where xG comes from, it's rudimentary but it's certainly something. As Attanasio said in the video, there's a bit of an arms race in football analytics right now, there's so much to learn that right now there's a chance to get ahead, then remaining ahead becomes the next challenge.

I thought in Moneyball is that the most important stat he produced is the expected score (can't remember the abbreviation) from hitting the ball anywhere on the field, which he achieved by superimposing a grid over the baseball field and plotting where the balls had been hit, and the resulting scores, which must have been literally millions of times that happened where the information was available, hence why it only became possible relatively recently to do this. 

 

So he could say a ball hit to a specific point of the field would have a given "expected score" with a high degree of precision and if there was an individual mistake or whatever on the play which gave a different outcome, he could be confident the "expected score" was a better guide to the performance of the batter.

 

As you say, xG is an attempt to give the same analysis to football and we can instantly see why it's much harder for football than baseball.  To get the baseball expected score you just need to know where the ball landed (that's my understanding of the book).  The football expected score will have many variables - where is the attacker, is he moving or stationary, where are the defenders (are they in the way or actually competing for the ball with the attacker, etc) and the goalkeeper, where does the ball come from.  Plus in a typical game you get quite a small number of chances per side over the entire game, whereas in baseball the batting team will be connecting with a % of the pitches all game.

 

So I agree xG has value but is still very rudimentary.  I'm sure behind the scenes teams are building their own more sophisticated models than the public xG data we see and it's probably true there is a bit of an arm's race going on at the moment.  I'm sure the bigger Prem clubs are investing heavily.  

 

I can see it being helpful that he's keen on this area, but I am dubious whether his Baseball background will be much real help to us, beyond him simply thinking this is a good idea that all football clubs need to improve.

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12 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I thought in Moneyball is that the most important stat he produced is the expected score (can't remember the abbreviation) from hitting the ball anywhere on the field, which he achieved by superimposing a grid over the baseball field and plotting where the balls had been hit, and the resulting scores, which must have been literally millions of times that happened where the information was available, hence why it only became possible relatively recently to do this. 

 

So he could say a ball hit to a specific point of the field would have a given "expected score" with a high degree of precision and if there was an individual mistake or whatever on the play which gave a different outcome, he could be confident the "expected score" was a better guide to the performance of the batter.

 

As you say, xG is an attempt to give the same analysis to football and we can instantly see why it's much harder for football than baseball.  To get the baseball expected score you just need to know where the ball landed (that's my understanding of the book).  The football expected score will have many variables - where is the attacker, is he moving or stationary, where are the defenders (are they in the way or actually competing for the ball with the attacker, etc) and the goalkeeper, where does the ball come from.  Plus in a typical game you get quite a small number of chances per side over the entire game, whereas in baseball the batting team will be connecting with a % of the pitches all game.

 

So I agree xG has value but is still very rudimentary.  I'm sure behind the scenes teams are building their own more sophisticated models than the public xG data we see and it's probably true there is a bit of an arm's race going on at the moment.  I'm sure the bigger Prem clubs are investing heavily.  

 

I can see it being helpful that he's keen on this area, but I am dubious whether his Baseball background will be much real help to us, beyond him simply thinking this is a good idea that all football clubs need to improve.

I don't remember exactly but there is definitely stuff like you mention, I think that was used mainly when they were looking into replacing/trading players? It's similar to the wins above replacement (WAR) stat, which will combine both a players' batting and fielding to show if they're better than the average player. My main point regarding the on-base percentage was that it was a far simpler stat to track, it simply asked the question how often does a player get on base, obviously it required someone to note down the score in the game, but it's a simple equation which doesn't use any data outside of that player's plate appearances.

All your points regarding the variables are true, and that's where the use of high speed cameras, tracking technology and freeze frames come into play, all of which wouldn't have been used in the last 15-20 years.

Obviously Attanasio himself won't be the guy crunching the numbers, but I think it's important to have someone who is committed to this method, in the simple terms of always believing there's more to learn and edges to exploit. He only needs to have one conversation with John Henry about how Liverpool got things going to realise there's plenty of room to grow. 

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28 minutes ago, repman said:

I don't remember exactly but there is definitely stuff like you mention, I think that was used mainly when they were looking into replacing/trading players? It's similar to the wins above replacement (WAR) stat, which will combine both a players' batting and fielding to show if they're better than the average player. My main point regarding the on-base percentage was that it was a far simpler stat to track, it simply asked the question how often does a player get on base, obviously it required someone to note down the score in the game, but it's a simple equation which doesn't use any data outside of that player's plate appearances.

All your points regarding the variables are true, and that's where the use of high speed cameras, tracking technology and freeze frames come into play, all of which wouldn't have been used in the last 15-20 years.

Obviously Attanasio himself won't be the guy crunching the numbers, but I think it's important to have someone who is committed to this method, in the simple terms of always believing there's more to learn and edges to exploit. He only needs to have one conversation with John Henry about how Liverpool got things going to realise there's plenty of room to grow. 

I agree, it's the future (like it or not!) and hopefully he will understand it's not going to be as easy as with Baseball !

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Well if Marky Mark thinks xg is an actual thing surely that's the end of him.

Little old Norwich, family and community values and to top it all off xg.

We're going to hell in a handcart😡

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2 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

Well if Marky Mark thinks xg is an actual thing surely that's the end of him.

Little old Norwich, family and community values and to top it all off xg.

We're going to hell in a handcart😡

findlaymarks-norwich.gif.138e3e2daa17ea992fcf393dfafb69a2.gif

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On 14/11/2022 at 20:37, Pyro Pete said:

I enjoyed it. You can understand why he's a bit cagey. After all, he's still only a minority shareholder at the moment.

But pretty positive, overall. I thought the TNC lads did just fine.

(Also, when did Jack start looking like a secondary school geography teacher?)

I take exception to that 

where is the tweed? This guy can only dream of being as stylish as my clan 

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32 minutes ago, SwearyCanary said:

I take exception to that 

where is the tweed? This guy can only dream of being as stylish as my clan 

Shouldn't you be busy marking homework on plate tectonics, or something?

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10 hours ago, SwearyCanary said:

I take exception to that 

where is the tweed? This guy can only dream of being as stylish as my clan 

And does he even know what an Oxbow lake is?

Edited by king canary
awful typo
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I can understand that clubs that adopted analytics early (e.g. Brentford) gained a significant advantage over their competitors. But all clubs of our level and above use this now so surely we’re in the area of marginal gains? That is, to express it crudely in percentages with made up numbers, the early adopters gained a 25% advantage.  Now a team that does it better than others will gain a 1-2% improvement at best unless they discover something revolutionary? Nothing wrong with marginal gains but anyone expecting the Attanasios to wave a magic wand in this area will be sorely disappointed.

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11 minutes ago, king canary said:

And does he even know what an Oxbox lake is?

Not sure any of us do. 😉

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On 14/11/2022 at 19:34, littleyellowbirdie said:

Duh. Obviously he thinks it's a catastrophic mistake; any sports investor worth their salt is going to pin everything on 45 minutes of play over and above decades of history.

I am glad that you agree it is a catastrophic mistake , regardless of what happened in the 45 minutes of the second half against Middlesbrough, it really is a mistake when viewed against the immediate problem of the spiral dive into mediocrity that has occurred since the appointment of Dean Smith. When viewed against decades of history there are also causes for concern for an investor in NCFC, not least the inability to turn potential into a sustainable Premiership Club. There is an old adage coined by South if memory serves, “how do you make a small fortune out of Norwich City? Start off with a big fortune!” While I may agree that if you are looking for something to criticise you will always find it, there is so very , very little to grasp as positive developments under Dean Smith.

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2 minutes ago, kenfoggo said:

I am glad that you agree it is a catastrophic mistake , regardless of what happened in the 45 minutes of the second half against Middlesbrough, it really is a mistake when viewed against the immediate problem of the spiral dive into mediocrity that has occurred since the appointment of Dean Smith. When viewed against decades of history there are also causes for concern for an investor in NCFC, not least the inability to turn potential into a sustainable Premiership Club. There is an old adage coined by South if memory serves, “how do you make a small fortune out of Norwich City? Start off with a big fortune!” While I may agree that if you are looking for something to criticise you will always find it, there is so very , very little to grasp as positive developments under Dean Smith.

You're not very good at picking up on sarcasm, clearly.

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You are clearly not very good at realising my own sarcasm to you in my response. However, the point remains that the American must be experiencing “buyer’s regret”  unless he has a clear and achievable plan for improving the set up at NCFC.

 

 

 

 

plan for improving the Norw

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3 hours ago, king canary said:

And does he even know what an Oxbow lake is?

Lakey will know!

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On 14/11/2022 at 17:47, WD40 said:

Is it worth listening to or is it mainly club talking points?

100%   listen to the future owners    im actually impressed

 

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The interview was all very fluffy kittens and anyone who gets excited about 'Yellows' needs to get out a bit more.

However, The Attanasios seem like very nice, pleasant people and obviously aren't going to give much away in a interview like this. 

I'm still not sure whether they've been hoodwinked by Delia's corporate negativity or they're far more cleverer than that and aren't as amenable as they seem.

Who needs who more? 

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3 minutes ago, komakino said:

The interview was all very fluffy kittens and anyone who gets excited about 'Yellows' needs to get out a bit more.

However, The Attanasios seem like very nice, pleasant people and obviously aren't going to give much away in a interview like this. 

I'm still not sure whether they've been hoodwinked by Delia's corporate negativity or they're far more cleverer than that and aren't as amenable as they seem.

Who needs who more? 

Interesting, as without promotion there’s a clear financial issue to be addressed, wages will no doubt need to be trimmed and a large section of our squad is out of contract upon the summer.

If come May we’re outside top six I think the club will need the Attanasios more so could they then make a play to take over on the cheap? Just asking those more in the know.

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On 16/11/2022 at 09:25, Nuff Said said:

I can understand that clubs that adopted analytics early (e.g. Brentford) gained a significant advantage over their competitors. But all clubs of our level and above use this now so surely we’re in the area of marginal gains? That is, to express it crudely in percentages with made up numbers, the early adopters gained a 25% advantage.  Now a team that does it better than others will gain a 1-2% improvement at best unless they discover something revolutionary? Nothing wrong with marginal gains but anyone expecting the Attanasios to wave a magic wand in this area will be sorely disappointed.

I agree that unless a club comes up with some inspirational breakthrough, everyone is looking at this area and it's going to be hard to get ahead of the curve now.  But any club that doesn't take it seriously is going to be left behind.

 

Personally I have a bit of a gut reaction dislike for applying stats to football and it almost seems Americans design their sports to be stats-friendly, with their rushing yards and pass completion percentages.  But it's the future, like it or not, because clubs see value in it.  

 

I do worry that players are being influenced in their style of play by how it is reflected in their stats e.g. I think Gilmour always had a good pass completion %, but it's the players who try to play the difficult through balls that may have a lower success rate but actually create chances.

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6 hours ago, Indy said:

Interesting, as without promotion there’s a clear financial issue to be addressed, wages will no doubt need to be trimmed and a large section of our squad is out of contract upon the summer.

If come May we’re outside top six I think the club will need the Attanasios more so could they then make a play to take over on the cheap? Just asking those more in the know.

The flipside being it shouldn't make any difference what league we're in as the less the current majority shareholders demand for their shares, the more can be invested in infrastructure and players.

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On 14/11/2022 at 21:19, Norfolk Mustard said:

Interesting pov! Not one I share, that's for sure. Chris is highly emotionally intelligent & a genius at relationship-building. His black book of NCFC contacts is to die for. I see a super-fan who is incredibly modest - and given his back story, I am in awe of his achievements so far. 

You are Chris Reeve and I claim my £5

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