If We Go Up - Transfer Strategy

[CanaryLegend 19]

Look a long way to go, this isn't to sound complacent in any way. Just for debate/discussion.

If we were to go up, given Nottingham Forest seem to lack a coherent transfer strategy, how would you best like us to recruit/strengthen?

I would prefer us to go with 3 players at £15m each or even a £25m striker and one other to show a progressive strategy, than several at £8-10m. 

Currently we lack quality across the board. We would need attacking options and we need reinforcements at the back.

Cantwell/Dowell/Kenny are not up to it. Neither is Sorenson/Idah/Gibson if we go up as well

[shefcanary 2,854]

It looks like Forest are following in the footsteps of Fulham's infamous £100m splurge of a few seasons ago. Wholesale changes of the squad to meet the whims of a rich owner. That didn't end well.

However we have tried two other approaches ourselves and neither has worked. And I am really struggling what you can do differently given the constraints laid down by the Board.

A strong sense of continuity for sure to maintain momentum as well as a clear but pragmatic tactical management approach. The key will be a lot of luck in squad development (recruitment, retention and disposal). Can Webber and Deano between them work that miracle. History says the jury is out on this. Also will Webber's ascent of Everest aid or impede this?

Not for the first time I have no answers, given our current set up. Perhaps it will just be down to a case of third time lucky. 🤷‍♂️

[Fr. Chewy Louie 137]

If we're looking odds-on in January, maybe we should be looking to bring a couple in then with an eye to the next season.  This might be time for a bit of ruthlessness with exits, as we probably have too many in-betweeners (like those you mention).

[Mr Tea 123]

I'd almost want to stay down for one season .

We need a rebuild and for me thats two seasons work. Sit and look at our teamsheet and ask yourself how many can really be good enough to play in the prem ? 

Very few for me. 

That means a big change over a summer which isnt the best way to build a team. 

We have some new investment sitting on the board now so lets do it over two seasons. 

[wcorkcanary 4,609]

1 minute ago, Mr Tea said:

I'd almost want to stay down for one season .

We need a rebuild and for me thats two seasons work. Sit and look at our teamsheet and ask yourself how many can really be good enough to play in the prem ? 

Very few for me. 

That means a big change over a summer which isnt the best way to build a team. 

We have some new investment sitting on the board now so lets do it over two seasons. 

Makes sense , though if we are still in top two at seasons end, we have no choice. There is also the danger that if we stay down to consolidate and reboot, we stay down , full stop.  Hobsons choice.

[The Bristol Nest 556]

If we stay down we will sell our assets and struggle even more.

[horsefly 5,150]

24 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

It looks like Forest are following in the footsteps of Fulham's infamous £100m splurge of a few seasons ago. Wholesale changes of the squad to meet the whims of a rich owner. That didn't end well.

However we have tried two other approaches ourselves and neither has worked. And I am really struggling what you can do differently given the constraints laid down by the Board.

A strong sense of continuity for sure to maintain momentum as well as a clear but pragmatic tactical management approach. The key will be a lot of luck in squad development (recruitment, retention and disposal). Can Webber and Deano between them work that miracle. History says the jury is out on this. Also will Webber's ascent of Everest aid or impede this?

Not for the first time I have no answers, given our current set up. Perhaps it will just be down to a case of third time lucky. 🤷‍♂️

That's a pretty fair assessment of where we stand. Frankly, the PL is a moral sewer when it comes to finances, and the "top" teams have skewed things outrageously, making it impossible for us to compete on fair terms. The corrupt sports-washing billionaire owners of those teams are prepared to absorb costs that simply defy the sound business principles that must determine the running of clubs without such owners. Outside of the PL the "top" clubs would be regarded as business headcases and would receive the same sort of market economic assessment that our own government has received for its unfunded fiscal event. We simply cannot risk the very survival of the club by borrowing vast sums of money in an unfunded gamble. Thus, we can only really hope that our scouting team turns up enough gems to give us a chance of gaining a foothold in the PL from whence to generate sufficient cash to compete more adequately.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,046]

45 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

It looks like Forest are following in the footsteps of Fulham's infamous £100m splurge of a few seasons ago. Wholesale changes of the squad to meet the whims of a rich owner. That didn't end well.

However we have tried two other approaches ourselves and neither has worked. And I am really struggling what you can do differently given the constraints laid down by the Board.

A strong sense of continuity for sure to maintain momentum as well as a clear but pragmatic tactical management approach. The key will be a lot of luck in squad development (recruitment, retention and disposal). Can Webber and Deano between them work that miracle. History says the jury is out on this. Also will Webber's ascent of Everest aid or impede this?

Not for the first time I have no answers, given our current set up. Perhaps it will just be down to a case of third time lucky. 🤷‍♂️

Around the end of last season, I said we needed to think about building a 'Championship plus' side this season that was overkill for the Championship and would only need small quality tweaks to have a decent chance of survival in the Premier League

The signing of Nunez, Sara, and Hayden has made me think that's what the club is trying to do, so hopefully the club can invest a substantial sum on a small number of players in the Summer instead of spreading it too thinly like last time. One of those will have to be a striker, given that Pukki will be off, but other than that some taller central defenders, a holding midfielder, and fifty left backs would seem like the way forward for me. 

[king canary 8,403]

I think there are a few questions we lack answers to before we can know what the strategy should be next season.

1. Is Hayden the answer at DM?
2. What have we got in Sara?
3. Will Tzolis come back looking more like the player we were hoping he could be?

As of right now I'd suggest we'd need 6 or 7 players who could come in and improve the starting XI to have any chance of competing- GK, CB, DM, CM, W, ST and maybe a number 10 depending on our planned formation. Very difficult to do on our budget.

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

It is a conundrum that a club like ours has difficulty in solving. You can't do any more than be in the top two and win promotion but you feel there is absolutely no chance of us having a transfer budget that would be able to bring in good enough players. It might work for one or two seasons with real luck, but in reality, creating a dynasty is  impossible.

The two seasons idea is sound but does depend on players buying into that. Which probably means better than Championship wages to keep our best and recruit others.

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 4,487]

1 hour ago, shefcanary said:

It looks like Forest are following in the footsteps of Fulham's infamous £100m splurge of a few seasons ago. Wholesale changes of the squad to meet the whims of a rich owner. That didn't end well.

However we have tried two other approaches ourselves and neither has worked. And I am really struggling what you can do differently given the constraints laid down by the Board.

The two that have worked the best in the last few years have been Brentford and Leeds (and Sheffield United, for one season at least).

The common denominator seems to have been continuity. Same coach, same core group of players with a couple of quality additions rather than wholesale changes, same system, same approach. 

It seems to have worked better than the revolutions of Fulham and Watford or the 'do nothing' and 'revolution on a budget with a new system' of our previous two campaigns.

However, it's worth noting that none of the three sides I mentioned had played top flight football for at least a decade. They had a freshness about them, enthusiasm, no mental baggage, and capitalised on their momentum. Teams like ourselves, Fulham, Watford etc. seem to go into the Premier League with a 'here we go again' mentality so you get stuck in a rut at the first sign of trouble.

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man

[Mr Angry 1,810]

This seems to be coming back to the controversial “Do we want promotion” thread.

I honestly think that staying in the Championship for longer than a season would be harmful to the club. I don’t think  players would stick around if they knew that was the plan. How can you expect them not to want to win every game they play? The only way it could be achieved would be to field a team of players who aren’t good enough!

[littleyellowbirdie 3,046]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It is a conundrum that a club like ours has difficulty in solving. You can't do any more than be in the top two and win promotion but you feel there is absolutely no chance of us having a transfer budget that would be able to bring in good enough players. It might work for one or two seasons with real luck, but in reality, creating a dynasty is  impossible.

The two seasons idea is sound but does depend on players buying into that. Which probably means better than Championship wages to keep our best and recruit others.

On a slightly more optimistic note, I imagine that, assuming we're promoted as planned, the next transfer window will be when our new Director dramatically ups his financial investment into the club. What we clearly don't want is wholesale change throughout the whole squad though. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[pete 349]

hayden not a DM according to Hayden.

Sara who knows but showed some touches, at least we have seen him unlike Hayden

Tzolis may come back but will not be any improverment.

6 or 7 players will need 2 CB's at least DM and a Striker will need to spend £100m to get PL standard recruits and this may not be enough.  Another Fulham, Villa of Forest debacle.  Hopefully the 2 South Americans can be our creative rocks which can be sold for £35m when we get relegated.  It's almost a certainty relegation will follow another promotion.

[Badger 2,743]

Obviously any club would want as many good players as possible, but I think that supporters over-estimate the "imperative" of having a team full of "premier league quality" players in their quest to stay up and as we have seen many times it can be an expensive mistake. 

1. It is very hard to attract clearly premier league standard players to newly-promoted teams unless clubs are prepared to be financially reckless (e.g. not include significant relegation clauses).

2. Most championship clubs that stay up don't do so simply because of their success in the summer transfer market, it is a much more complex than this. It is essentially about "finding a way."

3. How many of Lambert's players had significant premier league careers after they left us? Not many - but they found a way so that the likes of Steve Morison, Aaron Wilbraham, Bradley Johnson, David Fox, Elliot Bennet etc operated effectively enough to keep us up.

Looking at most successful staying up campaigns, staying up involves being (relatively) defensively secure and finding enough goals from somewhere - this is very often accompanied by more direct play; a big emphasis on set pieces; very hard work; "physicality and pragmatism*" and counter attack and dare I say it, a smidgeon of luck, especially with injuries to key players.

We need to identify what we wish "our way" to be and find players that make it work and not spend a fortune trying to buy "premier league quality" players - most of whom would only come to us as a last resort.

[essex canary 591]

9 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

On a slightly more optimistic note, I imagine that, assuming we're promoted as planned, the next transfer window will be when our new Director dramatically ups his financial investment into the club. What we clearly don't want is wholesale change throughout the whole squad though. 

Yeah. Seems reasonable or at least it would do if it doesn't come with a 7% interest liability.

Badgers posting also seems a good strategy.

Edited October 4, 2022 by essex canary

[king canary 8,403]

12 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

The two that have worked the best in the last few years have been Brentford and Leeds (and Sheffield United, for one season at least).

The common denominator seems to have been continuity. Same coach, same core group of players with a couple of quality additions rather than wholesale changes, same system, same approach. 

It seems to have worked better than the revolutions of Fulham and Watford or the 'do nothing' and 'revolution on a budget with a new system' of our previous two campaigns.

However, it's worth noting that none of the three sides I mentioned had played top flight football for at least a decade. They had a freshness about them, enthusiasm, no mental baggage, and capitalised on their momentum. Teams like ourselves, Fulham, Watford etc. seem to go into the Premier League with a 'here we go again' mentality so you get stuck in a rut at the first sign of trouble.

 

Yeah it seems the best bet is to ride a wave of momentum combined with some strategically placed signings. Obviously loads of hindsight here but it does feel like the first Premier League season under Farke was such a missed opportunity- a core group of talented young players high on confidence and we did nothing to actually support and improve key positions. Obviously injuries played a big role too but it does feel like that was our window to do what Brentford did last season.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,046]

Just now, essex canary said:

Yeah. Seems reasonable or at least it would do if it doesn't come with a 7% interest liability.

Inflation's over 10%, so on 7% we're quids in. 

[Well b back 3,570]

You probably don’t need brilliant footballers, but big physical players that can hold their own Ala Crystal Palace. 
However stay up and play that sort of boring football and many would be crucifying Smith.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,046]

1 minute ago, king canary said:

Yeah it seems the best bet is to ride a wave of momentum combined with some strategically placed signings. Obviously loads of hindsight here but it does feel like the first Premier League season under Farke was such a missed opportunity- a core group of talented young players high on confidence and we did nothing to actually support and improve key positions. Obviously injuries played a big role too but it does feel like that was our window to do what Brentford did last season.

That's really easy to say, but the club was still digging out of a financial hole at that point. In my view, the club's doing all it can to recreate that opportunity with the club in overall much better financial health. 

[Worthy Nigelton 1,232]

10 minutes ago, Well b back said:

You probably don’t need brilliant footballers, but big physical players that can hold their own Ala Crystal Palace. 
However stay up and play that sort of boring football and many would be crucifying Smith.

There may be some truth in this but then Leeds and Brentford aren't massive physical teams particularly. It's nearly impossible without a huge slice of luck and some early momentum.

[Besthorpe-48 110]

I think the answer does not lie in a signing strategy but in a more pragmatic way of playing football. Greater strength less naivety more like the way Premier league players do. Which is why Dean Smith is a very clever signing.

But first in the words of Jeremy Clarkson on millionaire "we have got to get you there."

[Yellow Green Army 248]

If we go up then we seriously need to improve the spine of the team. That means spending big on CB, DM, AM and striker.

[Capt. Pants 4,780]

Well the strategy needs to come from the top and that means Attanasio & Co significantly upping their investment and taking over the club.

I say that because we know the squad is littered with players frankly nowhere near good enough for the EPL, not even close. That means matching the gross spend from last time, as a minimum, 6 or 7 players including a **** hot striker.

[ged in the onion bag 954]

5 hours ago, TheDarkKnight said:

The "staying in the Championship for at least one more season" is smart thinking.

It gives you a time to rebuild. It gives Smith a time to lay a proper foundation as far as squad harmony, training, tactics, future plans, etc.

It's prudent and wise to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. 

Nottingham Forest's strategy of bring in 22 in preseason was self-destruction. 

It's highly improbable for 22 new players to integrate into a squad fast enough to survive relegation. I doubt Cooper even knows all the new players makes, never mind knowing their character, etc.

They'll finish bottom. But Steve Cooper will be fired long before that, which will be unfair, as it's an impossible job to get a squad with 22 new players to gel in a mattee of months.

Have been saying this since relegation we need more time!   This squad is nowhere near good enough and we need to develop better.

Sheffield United and Brentford have done well because they have a robustness about them that enables them to compete.  It’s essential to have strength in the team, pace in the team, players that can control the tempo of a game and a counter attacking threat.

Whilst we may be winning games, we aren’t addressing these fundamental issues very well unfortunately.

Even worse, Aston Villa will have another option in Ramsey next season whilst we will have another position to fill.   Last season, it became toxic, dread to think what will happen if we get promoted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by ged in the onion bag

[Mason 47 1,787]

For me, it's always been about athleticism, but now I'm looking additionally at discipline.

As somebody else notes, Brentford aren't exactly the biggest, strongest team, and yet they remain. Why? I think it is because they're very focused and disciplined.

I often use Byram to demonstrate the point that, despite Lewis and Aarons being quicker, the former was very seldom beaten defensively but popped up in the opposition box a lot more than both others combined. The fact he couldn't finish for toffee notwithstanding.

It's that PL discipline to know when to stick and when to attack, which under Farke we became very much set to 'take the risk' which saw us caught out so often. It was a beautiful dream to think we were going to tiki-taka our way up the Prem, but it was only that- a dream.

I was so optimistic about the Hayden signing as I reckon he's exactly this sort of player. We haven't paid that side of the game enough respect in order to compete, so I'd like to see a focus in that direction.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,234]

3 Players. The strategy should be simply about making it easier for us to score goals and less likely to conceed and not so much on upgrading the quality of the squad. we already have a great set piece taker in Nunez so that work is already done so we should spend most of our money on a significant upgrade on Hernandez and try to find that Sarr/Saint-Maximin style unplayable on their day winger. A commanding and experienced left footed CB who wins aerial challenges and a Tettey-style ball winning midfielder who will run and tackle and unsettle teams all game. We don't need a whole new team that's 10% better than what we have like Forest have done because it won't make a difference. We need easy goals and a way to keep them out. 

If we have anything left in our budget I wouldn't mind a pacy striker either but those 3 positions are the most important imo. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Christoph Stiepermann

[Canario 250]

Think the strategy is a serious CM / DM. Prob need a striker too. In reality its more not getting the top 4 in the first month,using the momentum of promotion to get sone pointsbon the board and then seeing if we add in jan. 

[dylanisabaddog 5,787]

2 hours ago, Mr Tea said:

Sit and look at our teamsheet and ask yourself how many can really be good enough to play in the prem ? 

Very few for me. 

Sorry, but even fewer for me. We need to be incredibly lucky in the transfer market to stand a slight chance of 17th.  All very depressing but at least we get the excitement of the Championship every other year. 

[Canaries north 155]

I will cut Forrest some slack as after promotion they lost so many loan players. They had to sign a lot of players. This is always the problem when going up as we found with Skipp loan ending and Buendia wanting to leave. We were weaker not stronger after promotion. If we do get promoted we will need to replace Pukki more than likely but I would rather see 4 £15 million players to really strengthen the first team than 10 £5 million players.