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Rip pound sterling

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The double whammy: as the pound plummets in value, the money lenders funding Truss' tax cuts demand a higher return for their risk. Result: the 10-year bond has now rapidly risen above 4%. So, the cost of government borrowing is spiralling. A massive increase in borrowing, creating a massive increase in the costs of that borrowing; all to fund tax cuts for the very wealthy who do not need the money. Economics of the insane.

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10 minutes ago, horsefly said:

massive increase in borrowing, creating a massive increase in the costs of that borrowing; all to fund tax cuts for the very wealthy

Yep. If ever there was a time to gamble, this is definitely NOT one of those times. In an inflationary and volatile economic environment with great global uncertainty. Deliberately borrowing record amounts - to hand over for the rich! This must be one of those moments that will be looked back in horror in years to come. 

Just incredible. Many posters - even on this football forum - could see the warning signs and have been deeply sceptical. 

These decisions are the actions of a desperate gambler. People are losing belief fast.

And all we hear from Truss, Kwarteng et al are that "we don't comment on the market or the BOE". Amazing attitude and statement to make in itself.

My goodness. This is such a self-inflicted mess.

Edited by sonyc
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48 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yep. If ever there was a time to gamble, this is definitely NOT one of those times. In an inflationary and volatile economic environment with great global uncertainty. Deliberately borrowing record amounts - to hand over for the rich! This must be one of those moments that will be looked back in horror in years to come. 

Just incredible. Many posters - even on this football forum - could see the warning signs and have been deeply sceptical. 

These decisions are the actions of a desperate gambler. People are losing belief fast.

And all we hear from Truss, Kwarteng et al are that "we don't comment on the market or the BOE". Amazing attitude and statement to make in itself.

My goodness. This is such a self-inflicted mess.

But they aren't gambling in the sense we think. A person might gamble because of either enjoyment and the thrill of winning or because they need to win money.

This bunch are gambling on a belief borne on a belief that should it fail, the return of austerity will only affect the weak.

Edited by keelansgrandad
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My 2d.

Truss has done the same as Boris, promised those that vote for her what they want.

So to those in the Tory party, promises of tax cuts.

As for the consequences, pass.

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So much for the Tories being the party of financial responsibility. Looks like they found a magic money tree that isn't do magic after all as everyone pays the interest on it!

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9 minutes ago, SteveN8458 said:

My 2d.

Truss has done the same as Boris, promised those that vote for her what they want.

So to those in the Tory party, promises of tax cuts.

As for the consequences, pass.

The biggest difference here though is the majority of Tory MP’s ( especially the Northern ones ) did not vote for her and her policies, and a large % of Tory voters outside the 160,000 do not approve of her policies over the last few days.

I wonder how long it will be before the U turn of a windfall tax and then of course we will be told the oil and energy companies will have volunteered to pay the tax.

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4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

FTSE now on the slide again big time

Yep, FTSE 100 below 7,000. That generally only happens due to big global events or lockdowns. This time, we can only blame rank Tory incompetence.

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16 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Wonder what Morty and the brexit boys excuse is this time…

They will tell folk that they are wrong, that anyone thinking differently is stupid. That we have too much idealism. Idealism is seen as a bad thing and you get chided for not being a realist. Even though you've been trying in your whole working life to work with the reality of peoples' lives. One's left of centre views are just not taken seriously.

That's been the view on these pages for the last few years. Hence, those in the left of centre have felt a deeper anger and sense of unfairness. That feeling I'm sure is shared and contributes more to people expressing their unhappiness even more. And for expressing those views one is humoured or worse, it is ignored.

That's what I believe they feel anyway - very little acknowledgement that their world views might not be correct. 

Same sense of entitlement and same tone of voice of the Tory party they support. 

Edited by sonyc
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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

They will tell folk that they are wrong, that anyone thinking differently is stupid. That we have too much idealism. Idealism is seen as a bad thing and you get chided for not being a realist. Even though you've been trying in your whole working life to work with the reality of peoples' lives. One's left of centre views are just not taken seriously.

Yes, I've always thought it rather bizzare (and totally unconvincing) how many people (viz Tory politicans) frequently denigrate what they see as 'idealistic' ideas whilst simultaneously promoting/preaching 'aspirational' policies.

But I usually take it as a sign that they haven't got a clue what they are talking about and certainly in Johnson's and now Truss' case that seems to be pretty consistently the case.

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Well. That was entirely predictable. 

So what does the BoE do now. Protect sterling and crash the housing market or accept the massive reduction in the value of the currency.

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The markets are allowed to find their own levels without interference and that's exactly what is happening and how it should be. 

During Barber Boom we were still disentangling from Bretton Woods and in the 90s we were shadowing the Deutschmark. That was a huge mistake and not one we are making this time around. 

In any case it is not just sterling falling against the dollar but also the Euro and the Yen.  There's no need to get all machi over the exchange rate, but to concentrate on fundamentals in the economy. Which is exactly what Kwasi is doing. 

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4 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Well. That was entirely predictable. 

So what does the BoE do now. Protect sterling and crash the housing market or accept the massive reduction in the value of the currency.

BoE will act - has to - that's what is expected today.

Yes much deeper Truss inspired recession now imminent. Saw else where that our borrowing rates are now higher hen the 'PIGS' - countries in the EU (such as Italy, Greece etc/) that everybody thought were basket cases a few years back.

 

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9 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

The markets are allowed to find their own levels without interference and that's exactly what is happening and how it should be. 

During Barber Boom we were still disentangling from Bretton Woods and in the 90s we were shadowing the Deutschmark. That was a huge mistake and not one we are making this time around. 

In any case it is not just sterling falling against the dollar but also the Euro and the Yen.  There's no need to get all machi over the exchange rate, but to concentrate on fundamentals in the economy. Which is exactly what Kwasi is doing. 

Thanks! Needed a good laugh. Truly hilarious!

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41 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

BoE will act - has to - that's what is expected today.

Yes much deeper Truss inspired recession now imminent. Saw else where that our borrowing rates are now higher hen the 'PIGS' - countries in the EU (such as Italy, Greece etc/) that everybody thought were basket cases a few years back.

 

I mean they are basket cases. Us joining them doesn't really change the nature of Italian politics. 

However the BoE might not actually move, I think they will, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. Markets are extremely volatile right now (not just for gilts, more broadly) and they may want it to settle.

The only guarantee is the theory that they might act is currently strengthening Sterling.

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27 minutes ago, 1902 said:

I mean they are basket cases. Us joining them doesn't really change the nature of Italian politics. 

However the BoE might not actually move, I think they will, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. Markets are extremely volatile right now (not just for gilts, more broadly) and they may want it to settle.

The only guarantee is the theory that they might act is currently strengthening Sterling.

I see they are trying to hold fire - so pound starts to drop again - down 1.5 % already.- into the mid low 1.06's. Buckle up. 

Actually - I think the market now smells blood - it will force sterling lower UNTIL the bank acts - a one way win-win bet for the dealers to make money.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

The markets are allowed to find their own levels without interference and that's exactly what is happening and how it should be. 

During Barber Boom we were still disentangling from Bretton Woods and in the 90s we were shadowing the Deutschmark. That was a huge mistake and not one we are making this time around. 

In any case it is not just sterling falling against the dollar but also the Euro and the Yen.  There's no need to get all machi over the exchange rate, but to concentrate on fundamentals in the economy. Which is exactly what Kwasi is doing. 

Fiscal policy is interference in markets, it's pretty much the definition of any change in economic policy. This is a ridiculous defence of bad policy based on partisan leanings.

Edited by 1902
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Cost of borrowing now risen to 4.5%. Interest payments now £10bn a year. Hope those millionaires spend their £55,000 wisely, because it's costing the country fuc*king dear.

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We will copy Zimbabwe at this rate and switch to U.S. Dollars.

Myself and the better half will be okay, as we have planned a new schedule. This will be one holiday a year, one Norwich game per season, no more visits to the pub and only drinking once a month being indoors on pay-day.

Its still cr*p tough and this country is a joke. The Euro has taken a plummet against the dollar also.

Edited by KernowCanary

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Imagine Truss at her local bank:

Bank Manager: "So you want to borrow a big pile of cash; just what do you intend to spend it on?"

Truss: " I thought I might go on a couple of holidays, live it up a bit, get my hair done, and maybe spend a few quid at the Canaries shop"

Bank Manager: "So you're not going to invest it in any kind of secure real estate or the like?"

Truss: "Nope!"

Bank Manager: "And just what sort of interest rate do you think I should charge for loaning such an amount without any sort of security?"

Truss: "eerrrmmm..."

Edited by horsefly
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Yes, the fall in the value of the pound is a touch worrying but at least bond yields are not shooting upwards, because that really would be a problem…🤓

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7 hours ago, 1902 said:

Fiscal policy is interference in markets, it's pretty much the definition of any change in economic policy. This is a ridiculous defence of bad policy based on partisan leanings.

No it isn't really. Interference in the currency markets would be what happened in the Major govt of the 90s where the Treasury spent £3B sterling to keep it in within the ERM, which was basically shadowing the Deutchmark. The markets understood that the rate that Chancellor Lamont was trying to hold sterling at was unsustainable and so traders shorted the pound. The message is Canutian, you cannot hold back the markets.

Also, check out the differences between fiscal policy and monetary policy if you want to properly understand economic policy.

You might call it partisan, ideological even, but the tax cutting measures just announced have been tried before and succeeded in the 80s and will doubtless succeed again. Further fiscal and monetary changes have been pencilled in for the months ahead - exactly the same strategy as was carried out in the early 80s. This time round we don't have to go through the whole privatisation process so in many ways we are better placed than forty years ago, even though the numbers involved this time round are quite alarming.

Oh and one other point. Cutting income tax is not a zero sum game. If the 45% top rate is removed it just means that some very important tax payers get to keep more of what is theirs. It doesn't take one penny away from those on lower incomes. It's not wealth distribution to the rich as some ridiculous commentators have claimed. We live in a country where anyone can work hard and be successful and those who do should be rewarded. Currently, we pay too many people to sit at home and do nothing. It's time for another reset to our culture same we had forty years ago. Friday, we saw the first baby steps towards that goal.

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Blimey are you saying the U.K. has no intention of paying back its debt. Of course the average person will get hit in the pocket as they are now worse off, and will be effected more when it comes to pay back time. 
In addition if speaking out of turn does not affect the markets, how come our chancellor spoke Friday, the markets crashed, as they began to stabilise he decided to open his gob with more fantasy Saturday, the markets crashed again as soon as they opened. They then stabilised again, then the clown decided to speak again and guess what, they began the cycle of crashing again.

This is not about market conditions, this is about a set of policies that are being acted on. Let’s pray that the markets can somehow stabilise before the BOE feel it is necessary to increase rates hugely again. The younger generation are now going to see their monthly mortgage payments go through the roof, yet Truss wanted to get rid of the regulation that restricted peoples borrowing, in case what is now happening happens.

Have to say I now view cabinet meetings in the same way as I read about the mad hatters tea party in Alice in Wonderland. 
You once asked me who I would vote for in the Tory party and there were many, however due to the complete shambles we find ourselves in I have gone from never being able to see myself voting anything but Tory, to never seeing myself ever voting Tory again, and I know many others that feel the same way. 

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Best bit is is some of those to benefit the most from the sinking pound are indeed the bankers who will be making billions for their employers, but will now receive huge bonuses for their work as they are no longer capped.

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As a short term measure this government needs to freeze rents, prices and wages as per the Counter-Inflation (Temporary Provisions) Act 1972.  They must act immediately and decisively - using it as a threat could make things worse. 

It would of course admit to the rest of the world just how big a mess we are in, but they know that anyway.

It isn't a long or even medium term solution but it will stop the bleeding.

 

Edited by benchwarmer

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