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Just now, Justin time said:

I think that the other teams would object to us playing 12 players.🤲✌️

As that formation is the outfield players it would 13 players including the GK. 😀

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51 minutes ago, Justin time said:

I think that the other teams would object to us playing 12 players.🤲✌️

I did assume the goalie was not in the 4-2-5-1 thus 13, I would not fancy us at all with 12, but 13 on the pitch.... Yeah... 

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Players Farke "fell out with" during his time with us. How much of that was down to bad attitude...

  • Buendia - Kept out of some games after throwing toys from pram, looked way better when returned to team. We got 35m for him. Now a bench player at Villa with rumours of a fallout with Gerrard.
  • Cantwell - Shipped out on loan when got too big for his boots. Bournemouth rejected him. Back now and performing nowhere near his previous levels. Bench player right now.
  • Leitner - Went to Zurich... played 9 games... contract not renewed. Now without club at 29.
  • Pritchard - Demanded to leave after fall out with fitness coach. Shadow of a player. Got good money for him though.
  • Middleton - Demanded to join Rangers to be the next big thing. 4 failed loans later is now tearing it up at Dundee Utd (not)
  • Watkins - Demanded to join giants Bristol City as they had "better potential".
  • Passlack - "The most exciting young full back to come out of Germany in years" is currently on his 4th loan spell at 24.
  • Roberts - 4 clubs in 2 years since leaving Norwich. Now at problem child club Sunderland with Pritchard.
  • Nyland - Without club after refusing to sign fresh deal with us. Ended up at Reading as 2nd choice.
  • Trybull - Never gives the ball away... at SV Sandhausen for the 0 games he's played for them so far.
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4 hours ago, Justin time said:

I think that the other teams would object to us playing 12 players.🤲✌️

I think that’s due to the time dilation effect of reading one of Chicken’s posts 👍😜

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On 19/09/2022 at 11:17, Michael Starr said:

Players Farke "fell out with" during his time with us. How much of that was down to bad attitude...

  • Buendia - Kept out of some games after throwing toys from pram, looked way better when returned to team. We got 35m for him. Now a bench player at Villa with rumours of a fallout with Gerrard.
  • Cantwell - Shipped out on loan when got too big for his boots. Bournemouth rejected him. Back now and performing nowhere near his previous levels. Bench player right now.
  • Leitner - Went to Zurich... played 9 games... contract not renewed. Now without club at 29.
  • Pritchard - Demanded to leave after fall out with fitness coach. Shadow of a player. Got good money for him though.
  • Middleton - Demanded to join Rangers to be the next big thing. 4 failed loans later is now tearing it up at Dundee Utd (not)
  • Watkins - Demanded to join giants Bristol City as they had "better potential".
  • Passlack - "The most exciting young full back to come out of Germany in years" is currently on his 4th loan spell at 24.
  • Roberts - 4 clubs in 2 years since leaving Norwich. Now at problem child club Sunderland with Pritchard.
  • Nyland - Without club after refusing to sign fresh deal with us. Ended up at Reading as 2nd choice.
  • Trybull - Never gives the ball away... at SV Sandhausen for the 0 games he's played for them so far.

Surely thats a list of players Farke ruined?

Dont forget Gilmour, who Farke had the audacity to drop, Oliveira and mini-Messi Marcus Edwards

Edited by The Great Mass Debater

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On 19/09/2022 at 11:17, Michael Starr said:

Players Farke "fell out with" during his time with us. How much of that was down to bad attitude...

  • Buendia - Kept out of some games after throwing toys from pram, looked way better when returned to team. We got 35m for him. Now a bench player at Villa with rumours of a fallout with Gerrard.
  • Cantwell - Shipped out on loan when got too big for his boots. Bournemouth rejected him. Back now and performing nowhere near his previous levels. Bench player right now.
  • Leitner - Went to Zurich... played 9 games... contract not renewed. Now without club at 29.
  • Pritchard - Demanded to leave after fall out with fitness coach. Shadow of a player. Got good money for him though.
  • Middleton - Demanded to join Rangers to be the next big thing. 4 failed loans later is now tearing it up at Dundee Utd (not)
  • Watkins - Demanded to join giants Bristol City as they had "better potential".
  • Passlack - "The most exciting young full back to come out of Germany in years" is currently on his 4th loan spell at 24.
  • Roberts - 4 clubs in 2 years since leaving Norwich. Now at problem child club Sunderland with Pritchard.
  • Nyland - Without club after refusing to sign fresh deal with us. Ended up at Reading as 2nd choice.
  • Trybull - Never gives the ball away... at SV Sandhausen for the 0 games he's played for them so far.

Worth noting you could add Oliveira and Murphy to the list.

Essentially Farke was very good at calling it right with players - seemingly - but at the time he was roundly criticised on here. Worth remembering for those roundly criticising smith for 7 unbeaten and 6 wins in a row..

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On 19/09/2022 at 11:17, Michael Starr said:

Players Farke "fell out with" during his time with us. How much of that was down to bad attitude...

  • Buendia - Kept out of some games after throwing toys from pram, looked way better when returned to team. We got 35m for him. Now a bench player at Villa with rumours of a fallout with Gerrard.
  • Cantwell - Shipped out on loan when got too big for his boots. Bournemouth rejected him. Back now and performing nowhere near his previous levels. Bench player right now.
  • Leitner - Went to Zurich... played 9 games... contract not renewed. Now without club at 29.
  • Pritchard - Demanded to leave after fall out with fitness coach. Shadow of a player. Got good money for him though.
  • Middleton - Demanded to join Rangers to be the next big thing. 4 failed loans later is now tearing it up at Dundee Utd (not)
  • Watkins - Demanded to join giants Bristol City as they had "better potential".
  • Passlack - "The most exciting young full back to come out of Germany in years" is currently on his 4th loan spell at 24.
  • Roberts - 4 clubs in 2 years since leaving Norwich. Now at problem child club Sunderland with Pritchard.
  • Nyland - Without club after refusing to sign fresh deal with us. Ended up at Reading as 2nd choice.
  • Trybull - Never gives the ball away... at SV Sandhausen for the 0 games he's played for them so far.

Nyland signed for Bournemouth the summer we released him. Was meant to be their first choice.

The weird thing about this list is that it includes players not ever linked with having fallen out with Farke... it's a tad confusing. Middleton wasn't part of the senior set up, for example.

The biggest criticism is one from the Buendia fans... as it is utterly stupid to force a player to leave upon promotion, why wasn't he sold the previous summer, after we had been relegated as everyone knows you only sell players that want away on relegation... Stupid, stupid Farke...

Also, Oliveira, despite his critics, is probably in the same ballpark as Hugill, who we paid £5m for. Plus you probably need to add Drmic in there somewhere. 

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On 18/09/2022 at 23:05, Robert N. LiM said:

Thanks. I realise I was a bit unclear in my earlier post. The table that @aBeeshared was a league table based on xG, both for and against. So it essentially created an expected result for each game and awarded 'points' accordingly. Now there's obviously a bit of creativity involved in such a table (you have to decide what constitutes a draw, for instance) but I found it interesting anyway.

There were a couple of other warning signs as well, with the benefit of hindsight: our poor record without Emi and our poor record against the other top sides (following on from our poor record against the bottom PL sides in 19-20). 

I guess what I'm saying is that, however badly it was carried out, there were some reasons for changing the style that got us promoted. 

 

 

The table I was referring to is here: https://experimental361.com/2021/05/09/expected-goals-table-championship-2020-21/

Draws are predicted if the difference between the teams’ xGs is <0.33

The interesting point re Norwich in 20-21 is that you scored 6 goals more than xG and conceded 18 fewer than xGA. That is you over-performed substantially at both ends. Of course, as fans and at the end of the season with the trophy in hand that goes in memory and record books as a fantastic team and season. 
 

But away from that surface, those running the club might have done a deeper analysis of performance to prepare for the next season where you’d not be so likely to have a consistent overperformer in attack (eg Buendia) at PL level against better defences and a weakened defensive set up against better attacks (eg Skipp). So you’d be more likely to revert to performing nearer to xG and indeed probably underperform it if as is usual for a promoted team which has retained most of its squad, your players were largely not at average PL quality. Whereas if you’d gone up while underperforming it might suggest that your players/tactics were capable of improvement to get nearer the par level of xG. 
 

How much you change and how many better players you need to address that is of course a very inexact science. Forest is showing that now- their new players are generally far better than last season’s (or so £150m ought to do!) but haven’t formed a coherent team playing together. Bournemouth and Fulham have fared better by having more settled squads. 
 

As an aside about how xG and results individually deviate but over time tend to converge, as a Bee, it’s interesting to see how xG and actuals compare this season. We seem to be pretty bang on our xG points total (xG has us on 10 rather than 9) but says we “ought” to have lost to Leicester, beaten Palace and Everton, drawn with Leeds and won more narrowly against Man U. I think losing the first game and not had that 4-0 v Man U and 5-2 v Leeds, as fans we’d have felt happy enough today with our points as fitting a moderately comfortable but hard fought midtable position but not felt nearly as euphoric as those two big wins made us. After the Man U game Frank commented that while it was a brilliant feeling, it wasn’t really a 4-0 victory. He’d clearly looked at the xG! 

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Thanks for the reply! I was hoping you'd post that table again.

3 hours ago, aBee said:

The interesting point re Norwich in 20-21 is that you [...] conceded 18 fewer than xGA.

This stuck out for me. I think most of us thought that we'd really tightened up at the back in 20-21 compared with 18-19. But the xGA suggests that actually we'd just been a bit lucky, or that Krul had had a storming season. 

 

3 hours ago, aBee said:

But away from that surface, those running the club might have done a deeper analysis of performance to prepare for the next season where you’d not be so likely to have a consistent overperformer in attack (eg Buendia) at PL level against better defences and a weakened defensive set up against better attacks (eg Skipp).

I think they probably did do this, hence the change to a different formation in 21-22. I think they'd analysed the problems, but couldn't find (or afford) the solutions. But we were certainly in a difficult position without our two most influential players in 20-21

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If Farke can finish the season in the top half of the Bundesliga (in his 1st season) then I think that's a fair indication that with a better squad of players he can be successful in a higher league.

But he didn't suit what we needed at the time he was sacked, but then neither did Smith.

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On 18/09/2022 at 13:22, Virtual reality said:

The way I see it is we’ve  downgraded massively going from Farke to Smith, But If turgid football is what it takes to keep us in the PL we certainly now have the right man.

Out with 'Farkeball' & in with 'Turgidball' doesn't sound particularly attractive...

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2 hours ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Thanks for the reply! I was hoping you'd post that table again.

This stuck out for me. I think most of us thought that we'd really tightened up at the back in 20-21 compared with 18-19. But the xGA suggests that actually we'd just been a bit lucky, or that Krul had had a storming season. 

 

I think they probably did do this, hence the change to a different formation in 21-22. I think they'd analysed the problems, but couldn't find (or afford) the solutions. But we were certainly in a difficult position without our two most influential players in 20-21

Zoe Ward has stated that one of the benefits of our tie up with our new investors will be access to additional data and ways to use it - anyone know what she is referring to? What specific data do US teams use that professional football teams in the UK don't?

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52 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

Zoe Ward has stated that one of the benefits of our tie up with our new investors will be access to additional data and ways to use it - anyone know what she is referring to? What specific data do US teams use that professional football teams in the UK don't?

I'm afraid I don't. I'm by no means a stats expert, but my intuition is that US sports (especially baseball) are much more amenable to stats-based analysis since each 'play' is so distinct and iterative, as opposed to the completely fluid phases of play in a football match. But clearly teams like Brentford have massively benefited from a stats-based approach (and all professional football clubs use them to some extent), so I guess if you can adapt the approach from baseball to football then it can only be a good thing. In recent times our most obviously stats-based signing has been Płacheta, so we've clearly got some work to do!

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4 hours ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Thanks for the reply! I was hoping you'd post that table again.

This stuck out for me. I think most of us thought that we'd really tightened up at the back in 20-21 compared with 18-19. But the xGA suggests that actually we'd just been a bit lucky, or that Krul had had a storming season. 

 

I think they probably did do this, hence the change to a different formation in 21-22. I think they'd analysed the problems, but couldn't find (or afford) the solutions. But we were certainly in a difficult position without our two most influential players in 20-21

I think from your recruitment last season they may have taken the view that the attack was most in need of reinforcement and (cf Karanka’s Boro) just strengthening defensively was futile if you couldn’t score enough. It probably fitted Farke’s philosophy to want to retain a passing and attacking team. Perhaps in retrospect throwing a big offer to buy Skipp and maybe going a little higher to get Ajer (and just not having bothered with Rashica, Sargent, Normann) would have given more of a base as the impact of overperformance and hence the likely drop in effectiveness in the PL was bigger defensively than in attack. Or to have taken a really ruthless view that Farke’s stylistic preference was impossible to accommodate with your resources in the PL and to have replaced him with a manager who’d embrace a more pragmatic approach early in the summer (though as I’ve said before that was probably more of a thing to have done in 2020, possibly even during the abject run in to relegation during the first lockdown). 

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On 18/09/2022 at 10:07, The Real Buh said:

I’m Not one to sit in the css as no of “ oh if only Farke were still here” he was a great mdd as Agee for us, truly one of the best, but I see why he was sacked. At that exact moment again st Brentford? No, but the writing was on the wall.

Farke changed our football mentality and method and it didn’t work in the premier league, which is fair enough, but at least when he came in he CHANGED things and HAD a football method he wanted to try

We’re now stuck in a holding pattern, no change has been made, just playing generic football and we either falter and fail in this, frankly, pretty poor league or we get out of it and are doomed to make The same mistakes we did last time.

Plenty of people see bad signs. We’ve been around long enough on this rollercoaster.

we needed bold change and we got Dean Smith and nobody at the board level felt any consequences. That is not right.

Brighton made a pretty big change in style with potter from big H though. Having said that, last season they tailed off big time. Be interesting to see how the next guy goes!

 

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10 hours ago, aBee said:

The table I was referring to is here: https://experimental361.com/2021/05/09/expected-goals-table-championship-2020-21/

Draws are predicted if the difference between the teams’ xGs is <0.33

The interesting point re Norwich in 20-21 is that you scored 6 goals more than xG and conceded 18 fewer than xGA. That is you over-performed substantially at both ends. Of course, as fans and at the end of the season with the trophy in hand that goes in memory and record books as a fantastic team and season. 
 

But away from that surface, those running the club might have done a deeper analysis of performance to prepare for the next season where you’d not be so likely to have a consistent overperformer in attack (eg Buendia) at PL level against better defences and a weakened defensive set up against better attacks (eg Skipp). So you’d be more likely to revert to performing nearer to xG and indeed probably underperform it if as is usual for a promoted team which has retained most of its squad, your players were largely not at average PL quality. Whereas if you’d gone up while underperforming it might suggest that your players/tactics were capable of improvement to get nearer the par level of xG. 
 

How much you change and how many better players you need to address that is of course a very inexact science. Forest is showing that now- their new players are generally far better than last season’s (or so £150m ought to do!) but haven’t formed a coherent team playing together. Bournemouth and Fulham have fared better by having more settled squads. 
 

As an aside about how xG and results individually deviate but over time tend to converge, as a Bee, it’s interesting to see how xG and actuals compare this season. We seem to be pretty bang on our xG points total (xG has us on 10 rather than 9) but says we “ought” to have lost to Leicester, beaten Palace and Everton, drawn with Leeds and won more narrowly against Man U. I think losing the first game and not had that 4-0 v Man U and 5-2 v Leeds, as fans we’d have felt happy enough today with our points as fitting a moderately comfortable but hard fought midtable position but not felt nearly as euphoric as those two big wins made us. After the Man U game Frank commented that while it was a brilliant feeling, it wasn’t really a 4-0 victory. He’d clearly looked at the xG! 

Like this post, but would say with the last bit in bold that when you've played / watched enough football, you generally have a pretty decent rough sense of whether a win is deserved, or indeed if it's been one of those where you've been unusually clinical in the finishing compared to the other team. xG simply notes all the potential chances and quantifies that sense whilst giving you far more to work with.

In short, I don't think he has to have clearly seen the xG stats afterwards. I thought it was clear enough that Brentford were considerably better, but United definitely contributed to their own downfall and had some chances themselves.

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5 hours ago, sgncfc said:

Zoe Ward has stated that one of the benefits of our tie up with our new investors will be access to additional data and ways to use it - anyone know what she is referring to? What specific data do US teams use that professional football teams in the UK don't?

It's the video with Attanasio that you really want to watch, he touches on it a little bit more. Essentially though, if you get a chance, watch the movie with Brad Pitt called Moneyball. I quite enjoyed it as a movie and some of the insight is quite unique - such as getting a pitcher out of retirement as he had some of the best stats as a first baseman, he didn't need to pitch, which an injury had stopped him from being able to do. 

There are a number of teams that already use this approach to signing players in the EPL/EFL including, I believe, Brentford. I think we have to an extent too. The only real issue is that it isn't "new" as such. I think soccerbot even has something to do with that aspect of the game - could be wrong there though.

Edited by chicken

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18 hours ago, Capt. Pants said:

If Farke can finish the season in the top half of the Bundesliga (in his 1st season) then I think that's a fair indication that with a better squad of players he can be successful in a higher league.

But he didn't suit what we needed at the time he was sacked, but then neither did Smith.

What we needed was a manager who could control the ball by telekinesis and keep on putting it in the back of the opposition net. That's the only manager who could have kept us up. 

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