Statistical Domination

[Boris 56]

2 minutes ago, GodlyOtsemobor said:

I seem to remember alot of people saying last year that we wouldn't be punished for the brain farts this year in the championship as it's not as tough as the prem on mistakes. 

And that this is a terrible league quality wise, well we've had 3 brain farts and been punished 3 times. Funny that isn't it. 

 

that is unusual for this league and mean  next 3 big mistakes will not end with goals definitely!

[Cowboy 197]

I can't say that I understand xG. Does the figure in brackets at the top for each team represent the number of goals that team ought to have scored given its chances in the game? If so, the three results so far aren't far off are they? A goal out at most. Perhaps I've misunderstood it as usual.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

1 minute ago, GodlyOtsemobor said:

I seem to remember alot of people saying last year that we wouldn't be punished for the brain farts this year I'm the championship as it's not as tough as the prem on mistakes. 

And that this is a terrible league quality wise, well we've had 3 brain farts and been punished 3 times. Funny that isn't it. 

I think it's alot less a confidence issue (although it does contribute) I think it's a quality issue, the fact that we're still relying on Krul Hanley McLean and pukki being the "spine" after 2 seasons in the premier league is very very telling, we could have (and probably should have) upgraded on all 4 by now. 

Out of thousands of fans, you can always pick out someone who might have said something that suits your argument; the fact that there were fans voicing an opinion last year that was clearly wrong doesn't make your opinion now right. 

We are dominating statistically, but we're coming up against teams who are setting up expecting us to dominate them, trying to frustrate us and nicking a sneaky goal on the counter. It's working because individuals have made a handful of sloppy mistakes.. We've fallen foul of multiple smash and grabs that have come about because of individual mistakes. Cut out the individual mistakes and we'd have won every one of the last three games. And the individual mistakes aren't about quality, they're purely about lack of confidence and anxiety regarding not losing. 

Personally, I think if there's a tactical change to make, it's to maybe sit back a bit for the first 10 or 20 minutes and get a bit of defensive rhythm, let them have the ball a bit more and grow in confidence, wait for them to open up a bit and then turn the heat up. 

[Canaries north 151]

I do hate possession and shot on target stats, XG is not perfect but tends to be right more than not. When a shot on target can be a tap in from 1 foot or a half way drive it's misleading and possession can be tapping it around at the back or in the opposition penalty area count the same. As for us being unlucky, even with bad luck we should still have been able to beat the teams we have played so far. We lack confidence, we are playing players who don't deserve to be getting a start and a formation that doesn't suit the players on the pitch. That is why we have had a bad start. 

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

30 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 The stats show the formation is actually working well, but performance is being let down by individual error. I would say that that suggests the best answer is to persist and have the individuals who are making the schoolboy individual errors up their game. 

Aaron’s, Gibson, Omo x 2, Sinani (who cannot get a game) are all part of the errors. 
 

The stats are doing a super job, 2 goals, 2 defeats, 0 clean sheets and 4 goals conceded in the first three games of the championship. That is poor and a continuation of last season.

[Mr Angry 1,555]

27 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Agreed Mr A but wasn't it partly responsible for bringing about the demise of Farke and Smith surely was brought in for among other things to stop it happening which he has failed miserably to do ?

You’ll have to ask Mr Webber the reason for appointing Smith-whether it was to improve on results last season or to prepare for another promotion attempt this season.

[Mr Angry 1,555]

26 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

So they also somehow managed to score a second which was not their best chance . How did they manage that when we handed the first goal for them on a plate ?

What was the Xg for Sarr to score from inside his own half against WBA?

Edited August 14, 2022 by Mr Angry

[littleyellowbirdie 2,547]

5 minutes ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

Aaron’s, Gibson, Omo x 2, Sinani (who cannot get a game) are all part of the errors. 
 

The stats are doing a super job, 2 goals, 2 defeats, 0 clean sheets and 4 goals conceded in the first three games of the championship. That is poor and a continuation of last season.

It's not remotely like last season. For the most part, we are looking pretty coherent and in control of games this season, which is completely unlike last season. The only thing that's a continuation is that end results at full time are similarly disappointing. 

It's pointless continuing to discuss it anyway. Ultimately, if people are going to dismiss analysis of what's going on with just pointing at the scoreline at full time, then there's really no sensible discussion to be had. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

4 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's not remotely like last season. For the most part, we are looking pretty coherent and in control of games this season, which is completely unlike last season. The only thing that's a continuation is that end results at full time are similarly disappointing. 

It's pointless continuing to discuss it anyway. Ultimately, if people are going to dismiss analysis of what's going on with just pointing at the scoreline at full time, then there's really no sensible discussion to be had. 

“It’s pointless continuing to discuss it”. Oh dear. Hate to break it to you. Football is a results business!

[The Real Buh 3,432]

Just now, Dr Greenthumb said:

“It’s pointless continuing to discuss it”. Oh dear. Hate to break it to you. Football is a results business!

he supports this absolute mess

says a lot about a person

[Canaries north 151]

XG is all and good but we only have one player I have faith in when it comes to hitting the back of the net. I would imagine all our other players would have a terrible conversion rate. That player wanted to leave and is not getting any younger. Add to that a system that doesn't suit him. All in all we could create some great chances but if they are not for Pukki then we will struggle. 

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

1 minute ago, The Real Buh said:

he supports this absolute mess

says a lot about a person

I still back Smith, but yesterday stank of a man who doesn’t know his best team, is too stubborn to change formation and is living a very comfortable life (with a poor record). This week coming needs to be two wins, nothing else, nothing less. I’m not interested in tippy tippy xg stats. Watford got battered at West Brom the other night and still could have won the game. We need resilience and nous. Too much naivety and looking like we’ve never met.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

Just now, Dr Greenthumb said:

I still back Smith, but yesterday stank of a man who doesn’t know his best team, is too stubborn to change formation and is living a very comfortable life (with a poor record). This week coming needs to be two wins, nothing else, nothing less. I’m not interested in tippy tippy xg stats. Watford got battered at West Brom the other night and still could have won the game. We need resilience and nous. Too much naivety and looking like we’ve never met.

He’s lost the dressing room. Those players don’t give a s41t about him

every move he makes looks more and more desperate

any other club would have sacked him at the end of last season, along come Norwich.

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

He deserves a chance, but there needs to be a fast improvement and I’m not seeing it. 
 

we needed a new centre back, defensive midfielder, right winger and striker. There has been none of that and now we are stocking josh Sargent back out on the wing to accommodate it. 
 

[Making Plans 936]

A professional tennis player who can't serve aces won't be winning very often.

A professional golfer who can't sink birdie putts won't be winning very often.

A team of Professional footballers who can only score two goals from 23 attempts on target over 3 games won't be winning very often.

As they say in golf, there are no pictures on a scorecard, it's only the score that counts.

[daly 501]

41 minutes ago, hogesar said:

The first goal had a higher xG than their second one. Primarily because of the amount of players inbetween the player and the goal, I assume. 

[daly 501]

Sure the girls would be able to create a few  statistics 

[Robert N. LiM 4,342]

I admire your tenacity, @hogesar: interesting stuff here, thanks.

I've just watched the club highlights. Admittedly they're going to show us in the best possible light, but there was a lot to enjoy and to give hope. Some decent, quick passing. Núñez looks the business in this division. We created decent chances. Most days we'd have won that game. Same was true of the Wigan game.

So I think Smith was right to say not to panic. Where I think he was wrong was to say we don't have a hangover from last season. We clearly do. The team expects to lose, unsurprisingly given how much losing we've done since January. That's where the otherwise inexplicable mistakes at the back come from. It's where the missed chances come from. It's certainly evident in how goals against us just knock the stuffing out of us.

All the logic and stats say that if we keep playing like we did yesterday and against Wigan, we'll start winning. It would not be a surprise if we win both games this week. But the intangible stuff like confidence and bottle is severely lacking at the moment and we need to turn that around very quickly. We could really do with a goal in our favour like one of Hull's yesterday. A bit of luck, something going our way to get us going. Objectively, wins don't look far away. But obviously the results of games don't always parallel the xG, which is why this bästard game keeps making us come back for more.

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,273]

9 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

He’s lost the dressing room. Those players don’t give a s41t about him

every move he makes looks more and more desperate

any other club would have sacked him at the end of last season, along come Norwich.

None of us know this to be the case. Let’s consider the team performances though. Out of the 4 games so far, how many times can you say the players have downed tools and given up?

If you need help, the answer is none of them. Which suggests the players are still playing for him. 

[The Real Buh 3,432]

1 minute ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

None of us know this to be the case. Let’s consider the team performances though. Out of the 4 games so far, how many times can you say the players have downed tools and given up?

If you need help, the answer is none of them. Which suggests the players are still playing for him. 

I’ve said it before, that you still support Dean Smith, I feel sorry for you. If that’s the standard of manager you want at this club then you really need to up your expectations. 
 

Hes a failure and he’s failing at this club. By perpetuating his stay you are hurting the club

[pete 319]

Forget the Hoggywash statistical bull.  we simply are not good enough in any part of the pitch.  A defence which makes continous errors leading to goals.  a front 3 that cannot score and a midfield incapable of assisting attack or defence.  6 points from next two will only obfuscate the reality of our dilemma.  Hoping the midfield conundrum may be solved and the season can be saved.  But Smith has done the damage and will now never be accepted by City fans.

City's results show the folly of relying on stats but keep up the clapping as long as it suits your vision for the club

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,273]

5 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

I’ve said it before, that you still support Dean Smith, I feel sorry for you. If that’s the standard of manager you want at this club then you really need to up your expectations. 
 

Hes a failure and he’s failing at this club. By perpetuating his stay you are hurting the club

It’s really impressive how you know more about me than I do 👏

[Grumpy Old Man 3]

23 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

He’s lost the dressing room. Those players don’t give a s41t about him

1) Not sure he gives that much of a sh*t about the club

23 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

every move he makes looks more and more desperate

any other club would have sacked him at the end of last season, along come Norwich.

2) Was at the Wigan and the B'ham cup games. Two very average (poor?) teams.

We have players who are plenty good enough for the Championship. But there seems to be no drive, no inspiration, no motivation and no real plan. Isn't that the manager's ruddy job?

[repman 635]

The thing with xG is that you can end up with a total of 1.6xG in a game, but that figure is the collection of all your shots. You could reach that point with 16 shots worth 0.1xG or 4 shots worth 0.4xG, if offered the choice you would pick the lesser shots with a higher probability of scoring. We've racked up plenty of shots so far this year but have yet to create really strong clearcut chances, granted if we had taken one of the decent chances early on yesterday it would've been a different game.

[hogesar 9,658]

33 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

I admire your tenacity, @hogesar: interesting stuff here, thanks.

I've just watched the club highlights. Admittedly they're going to show us in the best possible light, but there was a lot to enjoy and to give hope. Some decent, quick passing. Núñez looks the business in this division. We created decent chances. Most days we'd have won that game. Same was true of the Wigan game.

So I think Smith was right to say not to panic. Where I think he was wrong was to say we don't have a hangover from last season. We clearly do. The team expects to lose, unsurprisingly given how much losing we've done since January. That's where the otherwise inexplicable mistakes at the back come from. It's where the missed chances come from. It's certainly evident in how goals against us just knock the stuffing out of us.

All the logic and stats say that if we keep playing like we did yesterday and against Wigan, we'll start winning. It would not be a surprise if we win both games this week. But the intangible stuff like confidence and bottle is severely lacking at the moment and we need to turn that around very quickly. We could really do with a goal in our favour like one of Hull's yesterday. A bit of luck, something going our way to get us going. Objectively, wins don't look far away. But obviously the results of games don't always parallel the xG, which is why this bästard game keeps making us come back for more.

I agree. The intangibles need to change and they're really hard to quantify.

Our first game under Farke back in the championship needed Huddersfield to gift us a goal with an awful backpass. It's that sort of thing we really could have done with but conversely it's been the sort of goal we've gifted the opposition instead.

[Robert N. LiM 4,342]

30 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Our first game under Farke back in the championship needed Huddersfield to gift us a goal with an awful backpass

And we won the Rotherham game (before which we were W1 D1 L2) with an og and a 90+4 penalty.

Probably worth saying that I hope Smith isn't happy with our current xG. As you and others have said, we're not creating good enough chances. An xG of 1.3-1.6 doesn't give you much margin for error. I bet in our last Championship season it was frequently over 2.0.

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Robert N. LiM

[TIL 1010 4,740]

1 hour ago, Mr Angry said:

What was the Xg for Sarr to score from inside his own half against WBA?

Yeah i bet the statistics don't show that was coming in that match.

[Canaries north 151]

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts, for support rather than illumination" Andrew Lang. Always liked that quote. 

[Petriix 2,835]

3 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 The stats show the formation is actually working well, but performance is being let down by individual error. I would say that that suggests the best answer is to persist and have the individuals who are making the schoolboy individual errors up their game. 

On the contrary. The stats show that a) we score relatively few goals for the number of chances we create; and b) our opponents need relatively few chances to score against us.

With a tiny bit of analysis you can see that our formation is vulnerable to conceding high quality chances when we lose possession and we are creating the sorts of chances that don't match the finishing abilities of our players.

It was fairly obvious to me that we would be vulnerable against Hull because we lacked a reliable central midfield. When you're more solid centrally, you tend to make fewer mistakes at the back because you have easier passes into midfield. The midfielders themselves are more free to progress the ball, knowing that they are covered by the defence whereas when defenders are trying to bring the ball forward, one mistake leaves you totally exposed.

It's also fairly obvious to me that Rashica and Sargent aren't going to score the goals we need. The stats tell us that we need our chances to fall to better finishers.

That means there's actually quite a lot that needs to change. Sticking with the same plan is, rather unsurprisingly, leading to the same outcome. 

[Badger 2,405]

Well I hope that you have made a careful note of all this expertise Hoggy. 😉 You must remember you don't get any points for xG 😃

You might have helped one or two of the experts by explaining regression to the mean, but tbh, I doubt it 🤭