Striving to make sense of the Ukraine war

[Rock The Boat 1,154]

3 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Good level headed interview here:

 

There will never be a military victory over Russia in this conflict. It can only end in negotiation or the death of everyone.

[littleyellowbirdie 1,523]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

There will never be a military victory over Russia in this conflict. It can only end in negotiation or the death of everyone.

Russia will never lose any actual Russian territory, but there's every reason to believe it can be driven out of Ukraine entirely at this point. 

It's possible that Ukraine finishes up a militarised wasteland with most of the Ukrainian population displaced as refugees elsewhere, but if Russia continues to weaken itself pursuing a worthless victory there while never securing a proper platform from which to project power across the Black Sea, then from our perspective that's a better situation than just appeasing Russia. 

And all the while, discontent against Putin in Russia grows making the possibility that we wake up to the news of his death one day ever greater. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[kirku 1,286]

Russia deploys battle mages, after publicly declaring the new goal of the "SMO" is to "desatanise" Ukraine

 

 

[king canary 5,394]

12 hours ago, kirku said:

Russia deploys battle mages, after publicly declaring the new goal of the "SMO" is to "desatanise" Ukraine

 

 

Feels like we're a few weeks off them going full Warhammer 40k at this point.

[Foxy2600 212]

Russia evacuates Kherson.

Russia leaves a few inexperienced Mobilised cannon fodder to make it appear an easy option for UKR to take the city, 

Once a few thousand UKR soldiers are in the city to 'mop up' - Putin drops a nuke on it. After all it is now apparently Russia.......

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

On 01/11/2022 at 16:52, ron obvious said:

Good level headed interview here:

 

I saw this - and far from 'level headed' (the interviewer is - not so the interviewee) what shines through is American isolationism - the idea that it's really nothing to do with them (half dressed up in some 'Russian understanding parody of the facts to suit') and please leave us alone to carry on making money.

It very much like the USA pre Pearl Harbour (or 9/11) - the idea that somehow events in the world won't affect the USA.

That notion runs strongly in the current Trump Republican party - and I would guess will rapidly drive Japan, Korea and others to nuclearize if they can't rely on the USA in extremis. Same for Europe and again I'm not really sure where that would leave the NATO alliance - weakened as before with Trump. Of course such American isolationism is exactly what Putin and Xi dream off - the world is theirs! 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 7,561]

31 minutes ago, Foxy2600 said:

Russia evacuates Kherson.

Russia leaves a few inexperienced Mobilised cannon fodder to make it appear an easy option for UKR to take the city, 

Once a few thousand UKR soldiers are in the city to 'mop up' - Putin drops a nuke on it. After all it is now apparently Russia.......

I think the Ukrainians know that there is something going on. Tactically it has been advertised by the Russians. Avoid the City at all costs at the moment. 

[kirku 1,286]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

Feels like we're a few weeks off them going full Warhammer 40k at this point.

They're also fielding archers. 

Archers vs Javelins. Very fitting.

[kirku 1,286]

8 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think the Ukrainians know that there is something going on. Tactically it has been advertised by the Russians. Avoid the City at all costs at the moment. 

It's probable that UAF might ignore Kherson and make a drive for the coast instead

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

3 minutes ago, kirku said:

It's probable that UAF might ignore Kherson and make a drive for the coast instead

Long been talk of a third front down to Melitopol 

[ron obvious 1,301]

49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I saw this - and far from 'level headed' (the interviewer is - not so the interviewee) what shines through is American isolationism - the idea that it's really nothing to do with them (half dressed up in some 'Russian understanding parody of the facts to suit') and please leave us alone to carry on making money.

It very much like the USA pre Pearl Harbour (or 9/11) - the idea that somehow events in the world won't affect the USA.

That notion runs strongly in the current Trump Republican party - and I would guess will rapidly drive Japan, Korea and others to nuclearize if they can't rely on the USA in extremis. Same for Europe and again I'm not really sure where that would leave the NATO alliance - weakened as before with Trump. Of course such American isolationism is exactly what Putin and Xi dream off - the world is theirs! 

 

Sorry, it's not what I see. Whether you agree or disagree with the interviewee his stance is level headed & rational. He's arguing for a negotiated settlement, which I think is a valid point of view; what is the alternative? Military defeat of Russia by Ukraine? America getting directly militarily involved? Do you think they should be getting more militarily involved around the world? It's not about whether world events will affect the USA but how they should beat react to them.

I haven't a clue about how this war will end, but I can't see a decisive military victory for anyone as the outcome. And I don't think the USA sending an army to Ukraine in sufficient numbers to defeat Russia would end well.

[TheGunnShow 3,926]

What is there to negotiate? Russia has no entitlement to any Ukrainian territory whatsoever as basically if they did get any, it teaches that might makes right!

[ricardo 5,572]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

I think the Ukrainians know that there is something going on. Tactically it has been advertised by the Russians. Avoid the City at all costs at the moment. 

Putin is looking for a Stalingrad mk2.

Hopefully the Ukrainians don't fall into the trap.

[Creative Midfielder 1,753]

1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said:

What is there to negotiate? Russia has no entitlement to any Ukrainian territory whatsoever as basically if they did get any, it teaches that might makes right!

Spot on, although it is very unfortunate that the global response was so feeble in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea - that must have played a part it Putin's calculation that he could get away with this year's madness.

But also all the more reason why a total Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory is the only feasible\acceptable outcome to the war. There will still need to be some negotiations but presumably only around issues such as prisoner exchanges, reparations to be paid by Russia, and handover of suspected war criminals for trial in Ukraine or perhaps The Hague.

 

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

2 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Sorry, it's not what I see. Whether you agree or disagree with the interviewee his stance is level headed & rational. He's arguing for a negotiated settlement, which I think is a valid point of view; what is the alternative? Military defeat of Russia by Ukraine? America getting directly militarily involved? Do you think they should be getting more militarily involved around the world? It's not about whether world events will affect the USA but how they should beat react to them.

I haven't a clue about how this war will end, but I can't see a decisive military victory for anyone as the outcome. And I don't think the USA sending an army to Ukraine in sufficient numbers to defeat Russia would end well.

 

47 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Spot on, although it is very unfortunate that the global response was so feeble in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea - that must have played a part it Putin's calculation that he could get away with this year's madness.

But also all the more reason why a total Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory is the only feasible\acceptable outcome to the war. There will still need to be some negotiations but presumably only around issues such as prisoner exchanges, reparations to be paid by Russia, and handover of suspected war criminals for trial in Ukraine or perhaps The Hague.

 

There will always eventually be some settlement but I suspect not until Russia has gone through some internal upheavals (and frankly it already appears that the central command structure is fracturing - the emergence of Prigozhin etc). A new Russian leader would likely it seems to me not want to double down on a bad mistake (even if no better than Putin) but try to find an 'honourable' way out. 

That aside - I really can't see the Ukrainians even considering negotiations until at a minimum we are back to February 2022 front lines - probably a little more advanced than that in Ukraine's favour.

As to the interview - the interviewee completely failed to mention Putin's earlier previous adventures in Geogia, Syria and then tried to normalize/excuse the grab of Crimea let alone Donetsk. Apparently to the interviewee these actions are of no consequence and the current Ukrainian situation is now an event  in isolation - Russia as much sinned against as sinned. Nobody else believes this least of all the Baltic States, Poland etc. Putin has form and has all but stated he wants to recreate the Imperial Russian empire and Ukraine shouldn't exist. Frankly the interviewee was all but a Russian apologist to bolster his belief in American isolationism.

To abuse a well known American WW2 phrase - As far as the interviewee is concerned "When your house is on fire don't expect us to lend you a hose."

Edited November 7, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[kirku 1,286]

44 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

There will always eventually be some settlement but I suspect not until Russia has gone through some internal upheavals (and frankly it already appears that the central command structure is fracturing - the emergence of Prigozhin etc). A new Russian leader would likely it seems to me not want to double down on a bad mistake (even if no better than Putin) but try to find an 'honourable' way out. 

Very much doubt it, sadly.

The war was predicated on internal need for conquest - they've been fed this nonsense of russian exceptionalism for generations. I saw it first-hand but never appreciated how dangerous it was.

[kirku 1,286]

 

Impressive

[ricardo 5,572]

This is a simple equation for the USA. No American soldiers coming home in body bags.

Bleed Russia white by financing the Ukranians. Brutal but in the long term, essential.

Encourage other NATO countries to continue their support both militarily and financially.

Russia cannot be allowed any sort of propaganda win.

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Putin is looking for a Stalingrad mk2.

Hopefully the Ukrainians don't fall into the trap.

I agree with this. Lots of talk of Russian soldiers disguising themselves as civvies and the 'natives' being deported.

Putin wants as you say a propaganda show of the brave Khersonian's defending the city to the last against an overwhelming Ukrainian assault. That's how he want to portray it anyway to bolster his bull s h it claim territorial claims. 

[ron obvious 1,301]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

There will always eventually be some settlement but I suspect not until Russia has gone through some internal upheavals (and frankly it already appears that the central command structure is fracturing - the emergence of Prigozhin etc). A new Russian leader would likely it seems to me not want to double down on a bad mistake (even if no better than Putin) but try to find an 'honourable' way out. 

That aside - I really can't see the Ukrainians even considering negotiations until at a minimum we are back to February 2022 front lines - probably a little more advanced than that in Ukraine's favour.

As to the interview - the interviewee completely failed to mention Putin's earlier previous adventures in Geogia, Syria and then tried to normalize/excuse the grab of Crimea let alone Donetsk. Apparently to the interviewee these actions are of no consequence and the current Ukrainian situation is now an event  in isolation - Russia as much sinned against as sinned. Nobody else believes this least of all the Baltic States, Poland etc. Putin has form and has all but stated he wants to recreate the Imperial Russian empire and Ukraine shouldn't exist. Frankly the interviewee was all but a Russian apologist to bolster his belief in American isolationism.

To abuse a well known American WW2 phrase - As far as the interviewee is concerned "When your house is on fire don't expect us to lend you a hose."

So what exactly is the nature of hose you'd like the USA to lend?

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

8 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

So what exactly is the nature of hose you'd like the USA to lend?

Doing what they are doing is fine - money and appropriate weapons.

[TheGunnShow 3,926]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Doing what they are doing is fine - money and appropriate weapons.

Exactly this. The parallels between not helping Poland in WW2 and this look very similar. That wasn't one of Western Europe's finest moments of judgement, that one.

[TheGunnShow 3,926]

6 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Spot on, although it is very unfortunate that the global response was so feeble in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea - that must have played a part it Putin's calculation that he could get away with this year's madness.

But also all the more reason why a total Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory is the only feasible\acceptable outcome to the war. There will still need to be some negotiations but presumably only around issues such as prisoner exchanges, reparations to be paid by Russia, and handover of suspected war criminals for trial in Ukraine or perhaps The Hague.

 

Fair point, I was just thinking in territorial terms with that comment of mine.

I will say this though, I'd rather criminals be tried in the Hague than in Ukraine, as at least the perception of a kangaroo court would be somewhat reduced, I'd think. That said, I don't doubt the capacity of imperialist-minded Russian propagandists to delude themselves and others within Russia to say it's some kind of lizard people cabal or whatnot....

[Van wink 2,994]

Never seen so many fighter jets flying around the East Coast. 

[ricardo 5,572]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

Never seen so many fighter jets flying around the East Coast. 

JU88's trying to sneak in under the radar. Send for Bob Stanford-Tuck or Duggie Bader.

[TheGunnShow 3,926]

Just read a story about a rabid Russian priest called Mikhail Vasiliev who espoused the frankly ludicrous idea that women who had lost kids due to the war should simply have more kids to replace the ones who got killed in the war.

The fiercely childfree part of me is finding this absolutely hilarious. Rest in pieces, dic-khead.

Russian priest who advised women to bear more children and send them to war dies in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Edited November 8, 2022 by TheGunnShow

[Yellow Fever 2,628]

Good news at face value a Russian Kherson withdrawal.

I'm sure many a bump and trap set but that has to be easier to manage than a full blown street by street battle for the city. 

[Daz Sparks 791]

19 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Good news at face value a Russian Kherson withdrawal.

I'm sure many a bump and trap set but that has to be easier to manage than a full blown street by street battle for the city. 

I guess it will enable the UA to edge the HIMARS in range of the west bank of the Dnipro, where they will be able to slowly drive the Russian artillery back.

[Foxy2600 212]

22 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Good news at face value a Russian Kherson withdrawal.

I'm sure many a bump and trap set but that has to be easier to manage than a full blown street by street battle for the city. 

Doubt it - I expect the trap is a big fat Dirty Zaphorizia nuclear fuel waste surprise. As Zelenski says - the Putin regime sends no gifts.

[Herman 7,561]

Ukrainian flags going up in and around Kherson City.