Striving to make sense of the Ukraine war

[horsefly 4,287]

11 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I still do think that was probably the main motive; I suspect that whatever the Americans have said they'll do in response has been enough to put him off.

I suppose we will find out pretty soon on that as they seem to be losing territory to the Ukrainians at a considerable pace. However, I think my hunch has a lot going for it. Putin is clearly aware of the extremely poor morale among Russian troops and those he is trying to conscript. He has to sell to his troops a narrative to explain why they should endure the real risk of sacrificing their lives in a war about which it is becoming increasingly clear they have little hope of winning. A narrative which says they are defending actual Russian territory has a very different moral force when opposed to the reality that they are being asked to sacrifice their lives in order to steal another country's land. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

Gone missing

Russian submarine 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

9 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Gone missing

Russian submarine 

This is the one that can create tsunamis. Drown people rather than nuke them.

[Foxy2600 297]

On 03/10/2022 at 22:22, kirku said:

 

And nobody cares about Rostov.

Funny, when I was there it was full of UKR reg cars and trucks. Which was my point - that major industrial towns near the Black Sea will struggle to recruit people to shoot their brothers and sisters.. 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

On 03/10/2022 at 22:22, kirku said:

It's the other way round, they mobilise heavier in the regions because all political power is concentrated in Moscow and St Petersburg. Russia is still organised in the same way the empire was, and it is too domestically dangerous for Putin.

And nobody cares about Rostov.

Truss  didn't even know where it was 😰

 

[horsefly 4,287]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Truss  didn't even know where it was 😰

 

Rumour is that the Foreign Secretary walked into the PM's office and said, "What should we do about this Russian Rostov business?", she replied, "Make him a Lord and ask for £2 million".

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

On 03/10/2022 at 08:52, Foxy2600 said:

Hundreds of thousands of fighting age men have left Russia already. That wouldn't have happened unless Western MSM is leaking into the country and their equivalent of Twitter hasn;'t been shut down. In the main he's trying to recruit from the boonies as clearly support from the Moscow/St Petersburg/Rostov is waning. The use of strategic nukes will then have an effect on China and will then involve a proportional response from the West. I think China may have a different view on taking Taiwan back if the Authoritarian playbook of War means you take territory but kill most of the population and lay to waste the infrastructure and trade you so jealously coveted. I truly am astounded by Kazakhstan's response in refusing to recognise the legality of the 4 annexed districts. That takes balls - that or they know something (like there isn't anyone left to invade them too). I also wonder how it would go down in Belarus if luckashenko decided to add to the 'mobilisation' ...... 

Having said that - Putin's gone mad, believes his poorly staged 'Victory Concert' speech and all the time he gets some Russians to sign up and go to the front line, he will believe its the destiny of the Motherland/USSR to be [Peter the] Great again. 

 

Kazakhstan, like neighbouring countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia benefit from a weakened Russia, hence my question about who benefits from the conflict. Forgetting America for the moment, there are the cluster of countries around the Caspian Sea with rich oil and gas deposits, the revenues of which go to the individual countries. If Russia wins in Ukraine and continues with its desire to re-create the Soviet Union then those energy revenues get redirected to the Russian coffers.

So it makes good sense in the turkeys not voting for Christmas narrative that Kazkhstan wouldn't want to recognise the Annexation of Ukrainian territories.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

Gold teeth extracted from Ukrainian captives of the Russians. Reminds us of events from eighty years ago. We might have thought we had learned lessons from history but this is what we would face if ever the Russians invade us.

[horsefly 4,287]

49 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Kazakhstan, like neighbouring countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia benefit from a weakened Russia, hence my question about who benefits from the conflict. Forgetting America for the moment, there are the cluster of countries around the Caspian Sea with rich oil and gas deposits, the revenues of which go to the individual countries. If Russia wins in Ukraine and continues with its desire to re-create the Soviet Union then those energy revenues get redirected to the Russian coffers.

So it makes good sense in the turkeys not voting for Christmas narrative that Kazkhstan wouldn't want to recognise the Annexation of Ukrainian territories.

So, your stunning insight is that countries neighbouring Russia refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory because they don't want to encourage the same thing to happen to them. Wow! You should offer your services to the Foreign Office.

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

4 hours ago, horsefly said:

So, your stunning insight is that countries neighbouring Russia refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory because they don't want to encourage the same thing to happen to them. Wow! You should offer your services to the Foreign Office.

I don't think you'll see that until he's finished his report to the Select Committee on juvenile safeguarding.

[horsefly 4,287]

4 hours ago, Daz Sparks said:

I don't think you'll see that until he's finished his report to the Select Committee on juvenile safeguarding.

Glad I'm not the only one who remembers his appalling immoral comments. Cheers!

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

I listened to David Petraeus speaking yesterday, a very knowledgeable, calm and rational man it seemed. He seemed to think that this conflict will not end well for the Russians and whilst he didn't explicitly rule it out, he maintains that Putin wouldn't use a tactical nuclear weapon. His take was, that if he did, America would escalate it's involvement to the maximum, conventionally, except attacking Russia within it's borders. By the sound of it, this would mean hastening the removal of Russia from Ukraine and decimating their military capability.

[Herman 9,713]

Interesting article.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

 

[Herman 9,713]

They hit the Crimean bridge.

 

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

That's going to hamper logistics to Crimea

Edited October 8, 2022 by Daz Sparks

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

Another angle.

[Herman 9,713]

The start of a new offensive somewhere? Drag the Russians back to the Crimean area and then hit the areas that have been weakened. 

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

Just now, Herman said:

The start of a new offensive somewhere? Drag the Russians back to the Crimean area and then hit the areas that have been weakened. 

I'm not sure Ukrainian artillery could reach the bridge, I am inclined to think this was partisan action, although that doesn't mean it wasn't co-ordinated from Kyiv. I am sure that the Ukrainian military are driving home any advantage they can, meanwhile the Russian army is in disarray.

[horsefly 4,287]

Apparently, the Ukrainians are also very close to taking control of the canal that supplies 80% of the water used in the Crimea. I guess the Ukrainians haven't accepted that this is all now Russian sovereign territory. They obviously haven't realised Russia invoked the international law of the Cat 

 

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

One more.

[Herman 9,713]

I thought it could be the truck but right at the beginning of the first video something appears under the bridge.

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

I thought it could be the truck but right at the beginning of the first video something appears under the bridge.

You're right Herman, looks like the wash of a boat?

[Herman 9,713]

5 minutes ago, Daz Sparks said:

You're right Herman, looks like the wash of a boat?

Definitely.👍 The timing of the other video makes it look like the truck.

 

[ricardo 7,345]

Rather suspicious that the explosion takes place right under the nose of the security camera, what are the odds. If it was a truck bomb, how did it evade Russian security.

This could have been staged to make it look like an existential threat to mother Russia and justify a nuclear response. 

I very much hope I'm  wrong.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

Is that what happens when your cake with 70 candles gets out of control ?

[horsefly 4,287]

27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rather suspicious that the explosion takes place right under the nose of the security camera, what are the odds. If it was a truck bomb, how did it evade Russian security.

This could have been staged to make it look like an existential threat to mother Russia and justify a nuclear response. 

I very much hope I'm  wrong.

Wouldn't put it past them but think it's highly unlikely since the bridge is crucial in resupplying their southern forces, who are currently under severe pressure.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

40 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rather suspicious that the explosion takes place right under the nose of the security camera, what are the odds. If it was a truck bomb, how did it evade Russian security.

This could have been staged to make it look like an existential threat to mother Russia and justify a nuclear response. 

I very much hope I'm  wrong.

 

11 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Wouldn't put it past them but think it's highly unlikely since the bridge is crucial in resupplying their southern forces, who are currently under severe pressure.

 

I actually think its a straight forward (deniable) message sent to the Kremlin from Ukraine that it's easy to take out critical Russian infrastructure too if they desire  - it's not as if Russia hasn't been attacking Ukrainian infrastructure and random civilian targets for months. Putin can't 'win' this. 

As to escalation - Putin doesn't need any 'excuse' anyway so from Ukraine's perspective nothing lost. Indeed simply applies more pressure to Putin. It's Ukraine calling his bluff. 

If Putin was to demonstrate something I give you Snake Island as the obvious Ukrainian target.  

Edited October 8, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[1902 1,167]

52 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Rather suspicious that the explosion takes place right under the nose of the security camera, what are the odds. If it was a truck bomb, how did it evade Russian security.

This could have been staged to make it look like an existential threat to mother Russia and justify a nuclear response. 

I very much hope I'm  wrong.

It's possible but:

"Rather suspicious that the explosion takes place right under the nose of the security camera, what are the odds. If it was a truck bomb, how did it evade Russian security." 

This implies that the Russians have shown competence at any point during this conflict.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

 

[Herman 9,713]