ricardo 7,382 Posted September 12, 2022 Keep those sixth storey windows locked tight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 13, 2022 (edited) Im pretty sure watching Kherson will be key now. It's pretty clear that resistance from the Russians is stronger there as they are better trained and equipped troops. It's also clear that they the Ukrainians don't fancy a bloody fight in the city amongst their own citizens. The Russian forces on the West bank are under massive logistical strain though and if Russia loses there then a lot of the Kremlin's propaganda will be in tatters. I know that some Ukrainians have been calling it a feint. I'm not convinced it was, I think these were simultaneous offensives with very different tactical approaches given the completely different situations Edited September 13, 2022 by 1902 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 13, 2022 BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,767 Posted September 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Van wink said: BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator. Cracks appearing - some discontent - truth seeping in. One more significant 'loss' and Putin's regime might prove very brittle and shatter. What would come next? Sadly that also makes him the most dangerous vs escalation but that's just a risk we'll all have to take. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Load of Squit 5,161 Posted September 14, 2022 This Ukraine fight back is all the more surprising as we were told that changing PM from Johnson would be a very bad thing for the war in Ukraine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,541 Posted September 14, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, A Load of Squit said: This Ukraine fight back is all the more surprising as we were told that changing PM from Johnson would be a very bad thing for the war in Ukraine. It never ceases to amaze me how you and others like you, who otherwise oppose the government, do seem to believe these predictions to such an extent that you're surprised if they come to pass and turn out not to be correct. Edited September 14, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Load of Squit 5,161 Posted September 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said: It never ceases to amaze me how you and others like you, who otherwise oppose the government, do actually believe these arguments to such an extent that you're surprised if they come to pass and turn out not to be correct. It never ceases to amaze me how you don't really understand irony. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,541 Posted September 14, 2022 Just now, A Load of Squit said: It never ceases to amaze me how you don't really understand irony. Ironically, I was being ironic. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheGunnShow 5,937 Posted September 15, 2022 (edited) Looks like Azerbaijan has launched an attack on Armenia as traditionally the Russian powers-that-be have tended to favour supporting the Armenians. There's also a very small - at the moment - border skirmish going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan... If the Russians are already very hard-pressed in Ukraine, they won't be able to interfere in those arenas... Edited September 15, 2022 by TheGunnShow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Creative Midfielder 1,996 Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said: Looks like Azerbaijan has launched an attack on Armenia as traditionally the Russian powers-that-be have tended to favour supporting the Armenians. There's also a very small - at the moment - border skirmish going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan... If the Russians are already very hard-pressed in Ukraine, they won't be able to interfere in those arenas... Yes, it seems that Putin's stupidity has not just backfired on him very obviously in Ukraine but is starting of hit him from directions he probably never gave any thought to. Could cost him very dear, as despite the supposed unending friendship, or whatever it is supposed to be between China and Russia, I think he will find that China will very happily extend its influence in those areas you mention and replace Russia as the dominant power. Bit like the Finns and Swedes joining NATO, his invasion of Ukraine appears to be achieving the exact opposite of what he intended. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,541 Posted September 15, 2022 On 13/09/2022 at 09:41, Van wink said: BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator. I saw a clip of hm talking at the meeting with Xi Jinping; his body language has an air of discomfort about it at the moment. Interesting that the only commitment from Xi is to buy energy at hugely discounted prices. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,541 Posted September 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said: Yes, it seems that Putin's stupidity has not just backfired on him very obviously in Ukraine but is starting of hit him from directions he probably never gave any thought to. Could cost him very dear, as despite the supposed unending friendship, or whatever it is supposed to be between China and Russia, I think he will find that China will very happily extend its influence in those areas you mention and replace Russia as the dominant power. Bit like the Finns and Swedes joining NATO, his invasion of Ukraine appears to be achieving the exact opposite of what he intended. China surpassed Russia ages ago, but much like the UK has been the US' b**tch since WW2, Russia's just about to become China's b**tch. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 4,296 Posted September 20, 2022 Very significant if true: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkey-s-erdogan-putin-willing-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1221H6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dce88795befa428dbccc5ffa2e1ff3bc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 20, 2022 So Putin will escalate to deescalate as usual. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kirku 1,332 Posted September 20, 2022 4 hours ago, horsefly said: Very significant if true: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkey-s-erdogan-putin-willing-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1221H6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dce88795befa428dbccc5ffa2e1ff3bc Sham referenda and a mobilisation are one way of looking at it, I guess Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sheva 123 Posted September 20, 2022 If Putin says he wants to see an end to the war, then expect the opposite. More likely to be full scale, drawing British Troops directly into the fighting. Â Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,557 Posted September 20, 2022 This may just be one person's view, and I know little or nothing about military matters. But I found it interesting because I was tending to apply the lesson of world war two to this conflict, which was that Russia, despite getting hammered initially, would in the end simply have too many men and too much matériel: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/19/experts-russia-ukraine-war  1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 20, 2022 34 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said: This may just be one person's view, and I know little or nothing about military matters. But I found it interesting because I was tending to apply the lesson of world war two to this conflict, which was that Russia, despite getting hammered initially, would in the end simply have too many men and too much matériel: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/19/experts-russia-ukraine-war  Not that many men anymore, not much material either and war is becoming so much more technologically advanced that raw manpower is not so significant. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 4,296 Posted September 21, 2022 10 hours ago, kirku said: Sham referenda and a mobilisation are one way of looking at it, I guess Attempts to annex further parts of Ukraine with sham referendums could plausibly be read as a desperate attempt by Putin to gain some kind of "victory" to distract from the miserable failure to achieve any of his original war objectives. Of course, nothing Putin says should be trusted, but as the ignoble retreat of Russia from Afghanistan proved, Russian "might" is far from invulnerable when the body bags mount to such intolerable numbers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, horsefly said: Attempts to annex further parts of Ukraine with sham referendums could plausibly be read as a desperate attempt by Putin to gain some kind of "victory" to distract from the miserable failure to achieve any of his original war objectives. Of course, nothing Putin says should be trusted, but as the ignoble retreat of Russia from Afghanistan proved, Russian "might" is far from invulnerable when the body bags mount to such intolerable numbers. The smartest thing for him to do would be to "win" the referendums in the Donbas and "lose" in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. That would make it easy for Russia to claim that they weren't fixed referendums, give him an off ramp to pull back in the South and reinforce the East. Make mobilisation easier to sell to the Russian public and make him appear a reasonable actor to those who are wavering in the West.  I mean, he won't do that, partly due to ego, partly due to dreams of 'novorussiya' and partly because he wants water for Crimea. However that would be the cleverest way to strengthen his position. Edited September 21, 2022 by 1902 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 4,296 Posted September 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 1902 said: The smartest thing for him to do would be to "win" the referendums in the Donbas and "lose" in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. That would make it easy for Russia to claim that they weren't fixed referendums, give him an off ramp to pull back in the South and reinforce the East. Make mobilisation easier to sell to the Russian public and make him appear a reasonable actor to those who are wavering in the West.  I mean, he won't do that, but that would be the smartest way to strengthen his position. Indeed! His speech just now shows the desperation of his position. It will be interesting to see how the people of Russia respond to the "partial" mobilisation and the very obvious lies justifying it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,700 Posted September 21, 2022 "It's only a two week long militery operation.. It's only to denazify Ukraine.. We are only calling up the chechnya muslims to fight for us.. we are only calling up prisoners to fight for us.. We are only calling on the draft for all able bodied men in Russia.. We are only at war with the west who are threatening to destroy Russia.. We are only going to fire nukes.." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 4,296 Posted September 21, 2022 Putin's war is failing so badly that not only has he been forced to enact canon-fodder conscription laws, but also enact increased penalties for desertion and refusal to fight: https://dnyuz.com/2022/09/20/russia-imposes-stricter-penalties-for-desertion-and-refusal-to-fight/ For how long Russian mothers and wives will tolerate the pointless slaughter of their sons and husbands to preserve Putin's vanity remains to be seen.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,754 Posted September 21, 2022 On 12/09/2022 at 20:23, ricardo said: Keep those sixth storey windows locked tight. Do you want to see up a window furniture shop over there? Â Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 21, 2022 The reaction from the West to this should be very clear. NATO has a nuclear umbrella and we will use it if attacked with WMDs so we have nothing to fear from Russia. We will not recognise these referendums and this mobilisation will lead to us increasing military support to Ukraine. This is Putin's entire strategy in a nutshell. Bluff with nuclear weapons and use conventional forces to annex territory or keep his minions in power. George W Bush failed to confront him in Georgia, the response to 2014 was muted and Obama's red lines were dropped when Russia used chemical weapons in Syria all because of this threat. Eventually this was where it would always lead. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,382 Posted September 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Herman said: Do you want to see up a window furniture shop over there? Â Perhaps we should send them some literature on modern locked double glazed windows. They seem a bit backward on that sort of things. Mind you, looking at the quality of their armoured vehicles we shouldn't really be surprised. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,909 Posted September 21, 2022 I'm half Polish so I admit that I have a slightly twisted view of all this. But in the simplest of terms we have Biden and Truss against a raving lunatic with nuclear weapons. I suggest you say goodbye to the ones you love. This may not end well. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,199 Posted September 21, 2022 Maybe significant https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62981293 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1902 1,167 Posted September 21, 2022 52 minutes ago, Well b back said: Maybe significant https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62981293 Eventually maybe, but it's only when casualties of those called up mount that it will become difficult to maintain a war effort. A few hundred won't do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kirku 1,332 Posted September 21, 2022 16 hours ago, horsefly said: Indeed! His speech just now shows the desperation of his position. It will be interesting to see how the people of Russia respond to the "partial" mobilisation and the very obvious lies justifying it. Lies, what do you mean? Only ~6000 russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, and they heroically died while inflicting 100,000 losses to the Ukranian military. This is the reason russia now needs 300,000 men in their partial mobilisation, have stopped fighting age men from leaving the country and have allegedly started press ganging men on the streets. Obviously. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites