Striving to make sense of the Ukraine war

[ricardo 7,349]

Keep those sixth storey windows locked tight.

[1902 1,167]

Im pretty sure watching Kherson will be key now. It's pretty clear that resistance from the Russians is stronger there as they are better trained and equipped troops. It's also clear that they the Ukrainians don't fancy a bloody fight in the city amongst their own citizens.

The Russian forces on the West bank are under massive logistical strain though and if Russia loses there then a lot of the Kremlin's propaganda will be in tatters.

I know that some Ukrainians have been calling it a feint. I'm not convinced it was, I think these were simultaneous offensives with very different tactical approaches given the completely different situations 

Edited September 13, 2022 by 1902

[Van wink 2,994]

BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator.

Cracks appearing - some discontent - truth seeping in. One more significant 'loss' and Putin's regime might prove very brittle and shatter. What would come next?

Sadly that also makes him the most dangerous vs escalation but that's just a risk we'll all have to take.

[A Load of Squit 5,135]

This Ukraine fight back is all the more surprising as we were told that changing PM from Johnson would be a very bad thing for the war in Ukraine.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,514]

2 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

This Ukraine fight back is all the more surprising as we were told that changing PM from Johnson would be a very bad thing for the war in Ukraine.

It never ceases to amaze me how you and others like you, who otherwise oppose the government, do seem to believe these predictions to such an extent that you're surprised if they come to pass and turn out not to be correct.

Edited September 14, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,135]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It never ceases to amaze me how you and others like you, who otherwise oppose the government, do actually believe these arguments to such an extent that you're surprised if they come to pass and turn out not to be correct.

It never ceases to amaze me how you don't really understand irony.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,514]

Just now, A Load of Squit said:

It never ceases to amaze me how you don't really understand irony.

Ironically, I was being ironic.

[TheGunnShow 5,933]

Looks like Azerbaijan has launched an attack on Armenia as traditionally the Russian powers-that-be have tended to favour supporting the Armenians. There's also a very small - at the moment - border skirmish going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan...

If the Russians are already very hard-pressed in Ukraine, they won't be able to interfere in those arenas...

Edited September 15, 2022 by TheGunnShow

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said:

Looks like Azerbaijan has launched an attack on Armenia as traditionally the Russian powers-that-be have tended to favour supporting the Armenians. There's also a very small - at the moment - border skirmish going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan...

If the Russians are already very hard-pressed in Ukraine, they won't be able to interfere in those arenas...

Yes, it seems that Putin's stupidity has not just backfired on him very obviously in Ukraine but is starting of hit him from directions he probably never gave any thought to.

Could cost him very dear, as despite the supposed unending friendship, or whatever it is supposed to be between China and Russia, I think he will find that China will very happily extend its influence in those areas you mention and replace Russia as the dominant power.

Bit like the Finns and Swedes joining NATO, his invasion of Ukraine appears to be achieving the exact opposite of what he intended.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,514]

On 13/09/2022 at 09:41, Van wink said:

BBC Moscow correspondent saying  that Putin seems to be at risk of losing his aura of invincibility I thought was revealing yesterday,, very dangerous for a dictator.

I saw a clip of hm talking at the meeting with Xi Jinping; his body language has an air of discomfort about it at the moment. 

Interesting that the only commitment from Xi is to buy energy at hugely discounted prices. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,514]

4 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes, it seems that Putin's stupidity has not just backfired on him very obviously in Ukraine but is starting of hit him from directions he probably never gave any thought to.

Could cost him very dear, as despite the supposed unending friendship, or whatever it is supposed to be between China and Russia, I think he will find that China will very happily extend its influence in those areas you mention and replace Russia as the dominant power.

Bit like the Finns and Swedes joining NATO, his invasion of Ukraine appears to be achieving the exact opposite of what he intended.

China surpassed Russia ages ago, but much like the UK has been the US' b**tch since WW2, Russia's just about to become China's b**tch. 

[horsefly 4,287]

Very significant if true:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkey-s-erdogan-putin-willing-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1221H6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dce88795befa428dbccc5ffa2e1ff3bc

[1902 1,167]

So Putin will escalate to deescalate as usual.

[kirku 1,332]

4 hours ago, horsefly said:

Very significant if true:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkey-s-erdogan-putin-willing-to-end-the-war/ar-AA1221H6?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dce88795befa428dbccc5ffa2e1ff3bc

Sham referenda and a mobilisation are one way of looking at it, I guess

[Sheva 123]

If Putin says he wants to see an end to the war, then expect the opposite.

More likely to be full scale, drawing British Troops directly into the fighting.

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

This may just be one person's view, and I know little or nothing about military matters. But I found it interesting because I was tending to apply the lesson of world war two to this conflict, which was that Russia, despite getting hammered initially, would in the end simply have too many men and too much matériel:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/19/experts-russia-ukraine-war

 

[1902 1,167]

34 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

This may just be one person's view, and I know little or nothing about military matters. But I found it interesting because I was tending to apply the lesson of world war two to this conflict, which was that Russia, despite getting hammered initially, would in the end simply have too many men and too much matériel:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/19/experts-russia-ukraine-war

 

Not that many men anymore, not much material either and war is becoming so much more technologically advanced that raw manpower is not so significant.

[horsefly 4,287]

10 hours ago, kirku said:

Sham referenda and a mobilisation are one way of looking at it, I guess

Attempts to annex further parts of Ukraine with sham referendums could plausibly be read as a desperate attempt by Putin to gain some kind of "victory" to distract from the miserable failure to achieve any of his original war objectives. Of course, nothing Putin says should be trusted, but as the ignoble retreat of Russia from Afghanistan proved, Russian "might" is far from invulnerable when the body bags mount to such intolerable numbers. 

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, horsefly said:

Attempts to annex further parts of Ukraine with sham referendums could plausibly be read as a desperate attempt by Putin to gain some kind of "victory" to distract from the miserable failure to achieve any of his original war objectives. Of course, nothing Putin says should be trusted, but as the ignoble retreat of Russia from Afghanistan proved, Russian "might" is far from invulnerable when the body bags mount to such intolerable numbers. 

The smartest thing for him to do would be to "win" the referendums in the Donbas and "lose" in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

That would make it easy for Russia to claim that they weren't fixed referendums, give him an off ramp to pull back in the South and reinforce the East. Make mobilisation easier to sell to the Russian public and make him appear a reasonable actor to those who are wavering in the West.

 I mean, he won't do that, partly due to ego, partly due to dreams of 'novorussiya' and partly because he wants water for Crimea.

However that would be the cleverest way to strengthen his position.

Edited September 21, 2022 by 1902

[horsefly 4,287]

1 minute ago, 1902 said:

The smartest thing for him to do would be to "win" the referendums in the Donbas and "lose" in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

That would make it easy for Russia to claim that they weren't fixed referendums, give him an off ramp to pull back in the South and reinforce the East. Make mobilisation easier to sell to the Russian public and make him appear a reasonable actor to those who are wavering in the West.

 I mean, he won't do that, but that would be the smartest way to strengthen his position.

Indeed! His speech just now shows the desperation of his position. It will be interesting to see how the people of Russia respond to the "partial" mobilisation and the very obvious lies justifying it. 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,680]

"It's only a two week long militery operation.. It's only to denazify Ukraine.. We are only calling up the chechnya muslims to fight for us.. we are only calling up prisoners to fight for us.. We are only calling on the draft for all able bodied men in Russia.. We are only at war with the west who are threatening to destroy Russia.. We are only going to fire nukes.."

[horsefly 4,287]

Putin's war is failing so badly that not only has he been forced to enact canon-fodder conscription laws, but also enact increased penalties for desertion and refusal to fight: https://dnyuz.com/2022/09/20/russia-imposes-stricter-penalties-for-desertion-and-refusal-to-fight/

For how long Russian mothers and wives will tolerate the pointless slaughter of their sons and husbands to preserve Putin's vanity remains to be seen.

 

[Herman 9,717]

On 12/09/2022 at 20:23, ricardo said:

Keep those sixth storey windows locked tight.

Do you want to see up a window furniture shop over there?

 

[1902 1,167]

The reaction from the West to this should be very clear. NATO has a nuclear umbrella and we will use it if attacked with WMDs so we have nothing to fear from Russia. We will not recognise these referendums and this mobilisation will lead to us increasing military support to Ukraine.

This is Putin's entire strategy in a nutshell. Bluff with nuclear weapons and use conventional forces to annex territory or keep his minions in power.

George W Bush failed to confront him in Georgia, the response to 2014 was muted and Obama's red lines were dropped when Russia used chemical weapons in Syria all because of this threat. 

Eventually this was where it would always lead. 

[ricardo 7,349]

5 hours ago, Herman said:

Do you want to see up a window furniture shop over there?

 

Perhaps we should send them some literature on modern locked double glazed windows. They seem a bit backward on that sort of things. Mind you, looking at the quality of their armoured vehicles we shouldn't really be surprised.

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

I'm half Polish so I admit that I have a slightly twisted view of all this. But in the simplest of terms we have Biden and Truss against a raving lunatic with nuclear weapons. I suggest you say goodbye to the ones you love. This may not end well. 

[Well b back 3,190]

Maybe significant 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62981293

[1902 1,167]

52 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Maybe significant 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62981293

Eventually maybe, but it's only when casualties of those called up mount that it will become difficult to maintain a war effort. A few hundred won't do it.

[kirku 1,332]

16 hours ago, horsefly said:

Indeed! His speech just now shows the desperation of his position. It will be interesting to see how the people of Russia respond to the "partial" mobilisation and the very obvious lies justifying it. 

Lies, what do you mean?

Only ~6000 russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, and they heroically died while inflicting 100,000 losses to the Ukranian military.

This is the reason russia now needs 300,000 men in their partial mobilisation, have stopped fighting age men from leaving the country and have allegedly started press ganging men on the streets.

Obviously.