Striving to make sense of the Ukraine war

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

3 minutes ago, Mr Angry said:

We have a Ukrainian woman living with us now. She is worried about her husband who is still in Kharkiv. Her brother is in the Ukrainian army and rang her on Wednesday to say that the Russians are very close-she thinks he was probably ringing her because he fears that he will be dead soon.

This simply should not be happening.

agree. but who in our Government.the EU, or any of the so called western allies is prepared to get a ceasefire? There are no majore media organisations at the negotiations in Turkey, why not report from there? We are sending them obsolete weapons over 60 tons according to the US distribution office in Germany, but nobody is prepared to talk cease fire or peace.

Its Biden and Nuland who control Zelenski. If he does not do as they say, something will happen to him.

[horsefly 4,287]

21 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

denazifying a Nazi Government and its Asov Khazars does not mean that all of Ukraine citizens are Naz*s.

You can't even link to the BBC's multiple documentaries taken in 2013/2018/2019 anymore, it is 'verboten'.

But here is a direct link to the declassified CIA papers, educate yourself

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/AERODYNAMIC VOL. 1_0004.pdf

As for your second sentence, it is factually incorrect as theUS has planned to undermine Russian security by creeping up through eastern Europe for over 20 years. You are just not very bright as to remember, or you are the McCarthist who seeks our reds under the bed.

And just in case you did not get Biden in 1997, or covid has left you a little empty upstairs, here he is again. Facts dear boy facts

https://twitter.com/ImReadinHere/status/1500782351831662592

 

Your stupidity is unlimited as ever. To even suggest that Zelensky's government is a Na*zi government just makes you look an utter buffoon, and nothing more than a pathetic Putin stooge. So sad that you're too thick to see how you have been so easily indoctrinated by supporters of an evil dictator.

Ukraine was nowhere near getting membership of NATO (which would have required the agreement of all the other members and not just the US) as you would know if you bothered to read anything other than your usual conspiracy tripe. EVERY country has a right to defend the integrity of its borders and NO country has a right to invade without legal cause. Russian borders were not remotely threatened by the Ukraine, or the US. FFS! Ukraine gave up its nuclear weaponry precisely to guarantee that it had no interest in threatening Russia. I suggest you take the advice of other posters on here and sod off to spend more time with your beloved Craig. Surely it's time for you tell him what a hero he is, and make another donation to his begging bowl.

[horsefly 4,287]

2 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

agree. but who in our Government.the EU, or any of the so called western allies is prepared to get a ceasefire? There are no majore media organisations at the negotiations in Turkey, why not report from there? We are sending them obsolete weapons over 60 tons according to the US distribution office in Germany, but nobody is prepared to talk cease fire or peace.

Its Biden and Nuland who control Zelenski. If he does not do as they say, something will happen to him.

You're an idiot. Strange that you can't muster the wit simply to call on Putin to cease his illegal invasion. The war could end instantly if Putin obeyed international law and withdrew from Ukrainian sovereign territory. Putin is entirely responsible for every day this war continues.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

you are a paid stooge. Ukraine would have sailed through the application process as the fellow Naz*s in the west have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means. with cheating lying and all the usual training by special forces, etc.

They ignored Russia since 2014 when the fascist took over, now they have to deal with them.

[horsefly 4,287]

2 hours ago, kirku said:

You missed out "visionary"

And you missed "the second coming" (although that might have more to do with all those nights he spent at Uzbek strip clubs while he was supposed to be our ambassador).

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Nice joke thanks, 1902, you missed out 'under the Conservatives', after 'state of the economy '. You are obviously so well educated that you can twist words and find another meaning, well done three gold stars to you. I feel honored that you think my writing is similar to Craigs, he is miles better than me at using words. I shall see Craig and family next month for a few days, he will enjoy a good laugh.

Well, I'm glad the joy is shared. 

[king canary 7,580]

2 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Nice joke thanks, 1902, you missed out 'under the Conservatives', after 'state of the economy '. You are obviously so well educated that you can twist words and find another meaning, well done three gold stars to you. I feel honored that you think my writing is similar to Craigs, he is miles better than me at using words. I shall see Craig and family next month for a few days, he will enjoy a good laugh.

Lets just hope he's good enough to give you a reach around ey?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,511]

2 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

you are a paid stooge. Ukraine would have sailed through the application process as the fellow Naz*s in the west have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means. with cheating lying and all the usual training by special forces, etc.

They ignored Russia since 2014 when the fascist took over, now they have to deal with them.

I don't think you're Craig Murray, you sound more like Vladimir Putin. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,511]

On 15/06/2022 at 13:17, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

I am a City fan and don't need to post on football as I talk to other City fans.

Two things I take from this comment. 

1)The fact that you do post here on your thoughts on what a great guy Vladimir Putin suggests you struggle to find people in real life that share your enthusiasm for Russia's war criminal dictator. 

2)The fact that a football forum is your first choice forum for posting about your deranged love affair with Vlad the war criminal is just one more example that you have a screw loose somewhere. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[kirku 1,332]

On 17/06/2022 at 13:09, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

you are a paid stooge. Ukraine would have sailed through the application process as the fellow Naz*s in the west have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means. with cheating lying and all the usual training by special forces, etc.

They ignored Russia since 2014 when the fascist took over, now they have to deal with them.

What a ****ing idiot you are

[ricardo 7,348]

Why waste your time arguing with the paid trolls and bots from Savushkina St.

[Mr Angry 1,546]

On 17/06/2022 at 12:59, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

agree. but who in our Government.the EU, or any of the so called western allies is prepared to get a ceasefire? There are no majore media organisations at the negotiations in Turkey, why not report from there? We are sending them obsolete weapons over 60 tons according to the US distribution office in Germany, but nobody is prepared to talk cease fire or peace.

Its Biden and Nuland who control Zelenski. If he does not do as they say, something will happen to him.

I think a bullet in Putin’s addled brain would be preferable.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

Why waste your time arguing with the paid trolls and bots from Savushkina St.

Dzerzhinsky taught him all he knew.

[horsefly 4,287]

On 17/06/2022 at 13:09, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

you are a paid stooge. Ukraine would have sailed through the application process as the fellow Naz*s in the west have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means. with cheating lying and all the usual training by special forces, etc.

They ignored Russia since 2014 when the fascist took over, now they have to deal with them.

Yep! You're an idiot; a Craig Murray mint sucked and spat out by Putin. Ukraine was nowhere near acceptance into NATO, just as it was nowhere near acceptance into the EU (At least Putin has helped them out in that latter case). Strange how the Na*zi West encouraged Ukraine to give up its (3rd largest in the world) nuclear weaponry in exchange for legally binding guarantees that Russia would not invade its sovereign territory. Obviously a clear indication that they, "have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means". Idiot!

[Baracouda 47]

On 19/06/2022 at 06:31, horsefly said:

Yep! You're an idiot; a Craig Murray mint sucked and spat out by Putin. Ukraine was nowhere near acceptance into NATO, just as it was nowhere near acceptance into the EU (At least Putin has helped them out in that latter case). Strange how the Na*zi West encouraged Ukraine to give up its (3rd largest in the world) nuclear weaponry in exchange for legally binding guarantees that Russia would not invade its sovereign territory. Obviously a clear indication that they, "have worked for too long to get at Russia by violent means". Idiot!

At the June 2021 Brussels summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the NATO MAP as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy course without outside interference.

The Nato summit of 2008, stated Ukraine and Georgia would join. A few months later Russia went to war with Georgia. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Baracouda

[horsefly 4,287]

50 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

At the June 2021 Brussels summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the NATO MAP as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy course without outside interference.

The Nato summit of 2008, stated Ukraine and Georgia would join. A few months later Russia went to war with Georgia. 

The 2008 Summit Declaration concerning Ukraine was an aspiration made in response to rejection of the US's desire for the immediate acceptance of it into NATO. The main reason this was rejected was a concern that Russia might find Ukraine's admittance as hostile. The fact that 14 years later Ukraine was still nowhere near joining NATO is a pretty good indicator of how one should understand NATO's statements in this regard. The continued reiteration of the 2008 aspiration for Ukraine to join NATO in the 2021 Summit Declaration does not imply that it was anywhere near joining. NATO declarations are precisely that, "declarations". They are a summary of how NATO sees the state of play. They are not legally binding contracts or treaties. In the same declaration NATO affirms multiple aspirations and principles, including it's reiteration that it has not the slightest interest in threatening Russia, that it remains an entirely defensive organisation.  Ukraine itself has subsequently declared it would not seek to join NATO after it was made clear that NATO now considered that possibility as unforeseeable. 

The (previous) unfulfilled aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO would in no way justify Russia's invasions of those countries. Indeed the Russian's didn't even make this claim. In the case of Georgia it was claimed that it was because Georgia had attacked South Ossetia; in the case of Ukraine it was "de-Naz*ification.

[Baracouda 47]

50 minutes ago, horsefly said:

The 2008 Summit Declaration concerning Ukraine was an aspiration made in response to rejection of the US's desire for the immediate acceptance of it into NATO. The main reason this was rejected was a concern that Russia might find Ukraine's admittance as hostile. The fact that 14 years later Ukraine was still nowhere near joining NATO is a pretty good indicator of how one should understand NATO's statements in this regard. The continued reiteration of the 2008 aspiration for Ukraine to join NATO in the 2021 Summit Declaration does not imply that it was anywhere near joining. NATO declarations are precisely that, "declarations". They are a summary of how NATO sees the state of play. They are not legally binding contracts or treaties. In the same declaration NATO affirms multiple aspirations and principles, including it's reiteration that it has not the slightest interest in threatening Russia, that it remains an entirely defensive organisation.  Ukraine itself has subsequently declared it would not seek to join NATO after it was made clear that NATO now considered that possibility as unforeseeable. 

The (previous) unfulfilled aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO would in no way justify Russia's invasions of those countries. Indeed the Russian's didn't even make this claim. In the case of Georgia it was claimed that it was because Georgia had attacked South Ossetia; in the case of Ukraine it was "de-Naz*ification.

The Ukraine statement on non-membership was made after the war started and Putin stated on the eve of invading that all Ukraine had to do was to make a statement that it will never seek Nato membership and follow the minsk agreement. It was free to join the EU. Zelensky publicly refused.

Russia has for 20+ years made this perfectly clear, expanding nato to its border is/was an considered an exponential threat. Whether you agree with their position is irrelevant its clearly their view. It's why Merkel stated she would veto Ukraine membership in 2008 it would lead to inevitable war.  

We can argue what the respective leaders views and positions were but they are largely irrelevant now. The west should be doing everything to de-escalate, at the moment we are not actively trying to find a diplomatic solution. Instead we have vowed to destroy the Russian military by sending as much military equipment as necessary and we would destroy the Russian economy with sanctions. If we are successful in that end, in destroying Russia, a country with the largest stock pile of nuclear weapons, do you think they wont use them.

If we send as much military aid to Ukraine as possible and Russia is still victorious  it will be a huge blow for America and Nato, especially after Afghanistan. This situation will continue to escalate and I worry its trajectory is fast approaching the point of no return. At least in the cold war, both sides found ways to comprise and those leaders found peace. Neither America/Nato nor Russia are looking likely to back down and we are effectively at war with Russia. This is probably the most dangerous situation the worlds has ever faced. 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Baracouda

[horsefly 4,287]

8 hours ago, Baracouda said:

The Ukraine statement on non-membership was made after the war started and Putin stated on the eve of invading that all Ukraine had to do was to make a statement that it will never seek Nato membership and follow the minsk agreement. It was free to join the EU. Zelensky publicly refused.

I'm afraid that is utter tosh! Russia has persistently breached the Minsk protocols (I and II) from day one; the idea that it wants  those protocols followed is laughable.. Russia claimed it had no intention to invade Ukraine, yet did so in a blatant breach of international law. If you're so naïve that you swallow Putin's lies that's up to you.

Russia has for 20+ years made this perfectly clear, expanding nato to its border is/was an considered an exponential threat. Whether you agree with their position is irrelevant its clearly their view. It's why Merkel stated she would veto Ukraine membership in 2008 it would lead to inevitable war.  

I have already pointed out that NATO rejected the US desire for Ukraine to be made a member back in 2008 because it didn't wish Russia to perceive that as a threat. You have completely ignored the fact that 14 years later Ukraine was still not a member, and there was no foreseeable date for them to become so. The idea that this represented an "exponential threat" is preposterous (not that that expression makes any sense in the first place in this context). The logic of your view is equally preposterous as it implies that all Russia has to do to justify invading another country is claim they feel threatened by it. 

The west should be doing everything to de-escalate, at the moment we are not actively trying to find a diplomatic solution. Instead we have vowed to destroy the Russian military by sending as much military equipment as necessary and we would destroy the Russian economy with sanctions

Putin is entirely responsible for escalating the danger of this turning into a wider conflict. The West was foolish in allowing him to get away with annexing the Crimea, it isn't going to repeat that egregious error. Not resisting Putin would be a disaster. Putin could de-escalate this in seconds by ordering the withdrawal of his war crime abusing troops. Not one Russian soldier, not one piece of Russian military equipment would be harmed the second they are removed Ukrainian sovereign territory. This is entirely within Putin's control.

 If we are successful in that end, in destroying Russia, a country with the largest stock pile of nuclear weapons, do you think they wont use them.

This is an utterly ludicrous claim. NO ONE in the West, nor Ukraine, has said they want to destroy Russia. The ONLY measure of "success" is the simple withdrawal of Russian troops from sovereign Ukrainian land. To claim this is a war aim is to reiterate Putin's provably false propaganda. Are you really that gullible? 

If we send as much military aid to Ukraine as possible and Russia is still victorious  it will be a huge blow for America and Nato, especially after Afghanistan. This situation will continue to escalate and I worry its trajectory is fast approaching the point of no return. At least in the cold war, both sides found ways to comprise and those leaders found peace. Neither America/Nato nor Russia are looking likely to back down and we are effectively at war with Russia. This is probably the most dangerous situation the worlds has ever faced. 

Well done for finally recognising why Russia can't be allowed to succeed with it's illegal invasion of the Ukraine.

Edited June 24, 2022 by horsefly

[Baracouda 47]

I suggest you watch some people who aren't the bbc and sky. But expects in the field. 

 

[horsefly 4,287]

20 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

I suggest you watch some people who aren't the bbc and sky. But expects in the field. 

 

I suggest you watch and read the manyfold greater number experts who reject this viewpoint . However, in the light of your previous comments about Western support for Ukraine, you might like to consider Mearsheimer's view on deterrence:

Mearsheimer's first book Conventional Deterrence (1983) addresses the question of how decisions to start a war depend on the projected outcome of military conflict. In other words, how do decision makers' beliefs about the outcome of war affect the success or failure of deterrence? Mearsheimer's basic argument is that deterrence is likely to work when the potential attacker believes that an attack will be costly, and unlikely to succeed. If the potential attacker, however, has reason to believe the attack will entail low costs and be likely to succeed, deterrence is likely to break down, which is now widely accepted to be how the principle of deterrence works. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer

Hardly rocket science is it!

 

[Baracouda 47]

36 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Hardly rocket science is it!

Its not rocket science but deterrence only works when doing nothing has an advantage. I share his view points on the current conflict. That Nato and America have a large part to play in the conflict. 

You don't believe Ukraine was joining Nato, I believe that Ukraine was already a de-facto member of Nato. You had the deals signed by Britain about defence partnerships with Ukraine in 2020, 2021. You have nato arms deals with Ukraine in Nov 2021. https://www.cato.org/commentary/nato-arms-sales-ukraine-spark-starts-war-russia How accurate that headline was. 

More over, it is probably the single biggest foreign policy mistake of the Americans (or you could argue creating the economy in china). Russia I have never considered to be a serious threat to Europe and certainly not America. To be a serious threat, you a) need a substantial economy to fund, develop and maintain a military b) you actually need to have a substantial military.  Russia has neither.

I believe Russia feels it has no choice (although I do acknowledge that Putin did declare war and he and his generals are responsible for the events within Ukraine). Whether we agree or disagree on that point, think we can both agree the events have now happened, and will continue to escalate. Russia will do everything and anything to be victorious. Nato has positioned itself on doing anything and everything on ensuring Ukraine prevails.

China is the only country that is/will be superior to the Americans. Larger population, better manufacturing capabilities (at least in volume) and a larger economy. Huge countries like India/Pakistan on its borders and the largest energy supplier to the north. 

China is extensively building up trade with Russia, to ensure that Western Sanctions fail. I largely suspect that once the Oil & Gas deals with India, Pakistan and the increase in trade with China is completed, Russia will turn off supplies to Europe as response to sanctions. If we think inflation is bad now... 

I very much doubt this has a happy ending for the west. 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Baracouda

[horsefly 4,287]

16 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

Its not rocket science but deterrence only works when doing nothing has an advantage.

Incomprehensible! Sounds suspiciously like Nevermind.

[horsefly 4,287]

18 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

You don't believe Ukraine was joining Nato, I believe that Ukraine was already a de-facto member of Nato

Nonsense! De facto Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO.

[horsefly 4,287]

20 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

Russia I have never considered to be a serious threat to Europe and certainly not America.

Erm! have you never watched the news? Think you will find Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, the Crimea in 2014, and now the rest of Ukraine. It has also threatened to invade other European countries.

[Baracouda 47]

2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Nonsense! De facto Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO.

Obviously you are unable to acknowledge different view points...

But you are a de-facto member of Nato, when Nato is training troops and you are supplying military equipment. It is a military alliance, the only other requirement to be part of the alliance is signing papers and getting article 5. 

[horsefly 4,287]

23 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

I believe Russia feels it has no choice

Plain rubbish! Nothing more than Putin propaganda.

[horsefly 4,287]

2 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

Obviously you are unable to acknowledge different view points...

But you are a de-facto member of Nato, when Nato is training troops and you are supplying military equipment. It is a military alliance, the only other requirement to be part of the alliance is signing papers and getting article 5. 

Hahaha! Are you trying to be funny? If Ukraine was a member of NATO then NATO troops would be fighting Russian troops right now.

Do you not know the difference between acknowledging different viewpoints and possessing the evidence and critical skills to determine which of those viewpoints is plausible? Flat earthers have a viewpoint too, does that mean I have to acknowledge their claims as equal to the scientific viewpoint that the earth is round?

Edited June 24, 2022 by horsefly

[Baracouda 47]

2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Hahaha! Are you trying to be funny? If Ukraine was a member of NATO then NATO troops would be fighting Russian troops right now.

and you are sure we are not?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sas-troops-are-training-local-forces-in-ukraine-32vs5bjzb

So, we have the SAS in Ukraine but they are only training. What is training standing next to someone and telling them to press fire?

We publicly stated that 'volunteers' could go to Ukraine and fight. But what happens if a whole army regiment volunteers?

Edited June 24, 2022 by Baracouda

[horsefly 4,287]

8 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

and you are sure we are not?

Yes! obviously. Or perhaps you can inform me of the moment when NATO invoked article 5 and began pouring troops into the Ukraine to fight the Russians. FFS does this really need pointing out?

Edited June 24, 2022 by horsefly

[horsefly 4,287]

32 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

Whether we agree or disagree on that point, think we can both agree the events have now happened, and will continue to escalate. Russia will do everything and anything to be victorious. Nato has positioned itself on doing anything and everything on ensuring Ukraine prevails.

In the interests of world order and peace who do you believe should prevail, Russia or Ukraine?