The next 6 games

[If wed kept Howie.. 208]

18 points

[Mengo 822]

Norwich: Palace (h), Man C (h), Liverpool (a), Southampton (a), Brentford (h), Leeds (a), Chelsea (h)

win , draw ,loss, draw, win , draw , loss.

9 points.

 

[Danke bitte 965]

5 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

We never beat Palace - Liverpool tend to smash us. Man City ought to do the same. Then there are the other games..

Amazing what two wins can do for optimism but I fear we were down some time ago. sargent unlikely to carry on scoring - 

Fair point about Palace. A lot of optimism about beating them on here but I can’t recall the last time we did.. 

Not sure things are over but it’s still a mountain to climb. 

[The Fish 12]

14 hours ago, chicken said:

I'm just not convinced at this point, that Wood is better than Wilson. Great that they have two. I don't think Burnley have found better either though.

I think it actually goes to show that even with money, Newcastle either haven't wanted to, or haven't been able to attract a better calibre of player. Wood, Burn and Trippier do have experience though, and that may well be what counts in the end.

As a Newcastle fan I'm pretty happy with our business. Beginning of the window we needed to improve the defence, centre mid and up front. 

Trippier is top quality, despite his age. 

Wood is a bang average Premier League Striker, but that's way better than all but Wilson.

Burn is a lower PL CB, which is, again, way better than what we've got.

Targett is a lower PL LB, better than what we've got.

Guimaraes is an incredible signing.

 

We've attracted plenty of high caliber players (Botman, Carlos, Nunez, and Fabian Ruiz), but their clubs wouldn't release them in this window (fair enough).

[hogesar 9,666]

We need a minimum 6 points just to keep in the game. I think @Petriix is right when he says our first half of the season leaves us with such little room for error. Every team in that list probably has a better squad than us, perhaps Brentford aside. Worth noting how much of a challenge just getting the 6 points would be.

The flipside of course is if momentum and confidence produces a couple unexpected results and we end up with 9 points or something, then we give ourselves a tiny amount of breathing space (other results dependant of course)

[chicken 2,624]

11 minutes ago, The Fish said:

As a Newcastle fan I'm pretty happy with our business. Beginning of the window we needed to improve the defence, centre mid and up front. 

Trippier is top quality, despite his age. 

Wood is a bang average Premier League Striker, but that's way better than all but Wilson.

Burn is a lower PL CB, which is, again, way better than what we've got.

Targett is a lower PL LB, better than what we've got.

Guimaraes is an incredible signing.

 

We've attracted plenty of high caliber players (Botman, Carlos, Nunez, and Fabian Ruiz), but their clubs wouldn't release them in this window (fair enough).

Guimaraes could be an incredible signing. He's DM and if he lands with his feet on the ground, great. If not, the run of games you have next could be the worst time to be trying to gel a side.

We've learned this season than combative players from France can struggle to deal with the physicality of the Premier League to begin with.

As I said before, Trippier is quality, but enough to lift Newcastle on his own? Burn and Wood as you say, are solid if unspectacular.

I don't dislike Newcastle Utd, I have a lot of time for them and their fans, I have worked with a number of them and they've been great people.

I just think some people have over-egged the Newcastle spending a bit. Nothing there that really says to me that you are guaranteed an uptick. Not saying that couldn't happen either.

Just nothing there for me to say that you have "bought" your way out of trouble just yet.

[canarybubbles 1,915]

I think we need at least six points, and three of those must come against Brentford.

Soon, though, we will have played Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea, and most of our rivals will have them to play. It's looking as if it might be game on at the top of the league, in which case our rivals are likely to lose their games against Man City and Liverpool. We just have to make sure we are still competitive after the Chelsea game.

[The Fish 12]

20 minutes ago, chicken said:

Guimaraes could be an incredible signing. He's DM and if he lands with his feet on the ground, great. If not, the run of games you have next could be the worst time to be trying to gel a side.

We've learned this season than combative players from France can struggle to deal with the physicality of the Premier League to begin with.

As I said before, Trippier is quality, but enough to lift Newcastle on his own? Burn and Wood as you say, are solid if unspectacular.

I don't dislike Newcastle Utd, I have a lot of time for them and their fans, I have worked with a number of them and they've been great people.

I just think some people have over-egged the Newcastle spending a bit. Nothing there that really says to me that you are guaranteed an uptick. Not saying that couldn't happen either.

Just nothing there for me to say that you have "bought" your way out of trouble just yet.

I think the big thing for me is not that we've gone off and signed stars (Trippier and Guimaraes aside), it's just that we've replaced seriously sub-par players with about-par players. We've directly strengthened the weakest parts of our squad.

I agree that there's no guarantee that the money we've spent and the players we've signed will definitely deliver survival. Just that we've done enough on paper to finish, at least, top of the table of 4. So, for that, I'm happy. Especially when you compare our business to the business done by the others down here. Watford's best signing is Hodgson, but there's no guarantee he can get them well-drilled in time. Burnley have swapped a big experienced battering ram, for a big promising battering ram, and I believe their issues run deeper than that. Yourself and Leeds haven't signed anyone.

[LaUnionCanary 86]

7 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

We never beat Palace - Liverpool tend to smash us. Man City ought to do the same. Then there are the other games..

Amazing what two wins can do for optimism but I fear we were down some time ago. sargent unlikely to carry on scoring - 

We never beat Watford either, except we do now.

[chicken 2,624]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

We need a minimum 6 points just to keep in the game. I think @Petriix is right when he says our first half of the season leaves us with such little room for error. Every team in that list probably has a better squad than us, perhaps Brentford aside. Worth noting how much of a challenge just getting the 6 points would be.

The flipside of course is if momentum and confidence produces a couple unexpected results and we end up with 9 points or something, then we give ourselves a tiny amount of breathing space (other results dependant of course)

Depends how you look at it.

I would say that Brentford and Burnley are pretty similar to us, our friends in the North East just bought Burnley's best attacking asset, which would be like someone buying Pukki from us. They have games in hand, which is about the only thing they have on us at the moment. Age seems to be catching up with that squad.

Watford aren't that dissimilar to Brentford really. Some great attacking ability but what appears to be a soft underside and some evidence to suggest they have been found out a bit.

Leeds have a handful of quality players, but lose one or two of them and they are struggling, which is what has happened this season. I'm not convinced they are miles better than us. 

I think the recent runs of results of teams in the bottom half of the table has really opened it up. I like to look a couple of games ahead. If Newcastle win their next two, and Leeds don't, Newcastle will be a point behind them. Same scenario and we'd be equal on points.

It's not about the best squads of individuals but about which team can get the best run of results. 3-4 wins at this point would push most teams into a comfortable position. Especially as some have to play each other.

You have five teams on less than a point per game, one team on a point per game, and another within a couple of points of a point per game. That takes you to Palace in 13th with Southampton in 12th a point better off in that ratio.

If you go by that concept, that a point per game is safety, those teams could easily slip and fall below that total. Palace are a loss away from going beneath it, for example, and are on the same number of games as us. Brentford are on one point per game but have played a game more.

It could actually turn out to be quite a competitive run in with teams only getting out of it mathematically as we get close to the final stages. Right now though it's almost anyone's to mess up or take a grip of.

[chicken 2,624]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

I think the big thing for me is not that we've gone off and signed stars (Trippier and Guimaraes aside), it's just that we've replaced seriously sub-par players with about-par players. We've directly strengthened the weakest parts of our squad.

I agree that there's no guarantee that the money we've spent and the players we've signed will definitely deliver survival. Just that we've done enough on paper to finish, at least, top of the table of 4. So, for that, I'm happy. Especially when you compare our business to the business done by the others down here. Watford's best signing is Hodgson, but there's no guarantee he can get them well-drilled in time. Burnley have swapped a big experienced battering ram, for a big promising battering ram, and I believe their issues run deeper than that. Yourself and Leeds haven't signed anyone.

That is true... but then, we spent all our money in the summer. Your main signing in the summer was Willock for £25m from what I can see. The others were youngsters for the future. Leeds are fairly similar actually, though they spent big on James from Man Utd for £25m too. 

So in a way it makes sense you needed to strengthen - because you were behind in that regard from the summer, having signed a single player.

So swings and roundabouts, though most managers will tell you they would prefer having players in for pre-season, or at least some of it. Though us pretty much didn't happen due to covid. Which goes back to the point of needing to give players games to find their legs, and being able to afford to give them games not to... Very much proof in the pudding. The added pressure will be Newcastle's immediate run of games are very attractive in terms of potential points gain, mess it up and you start to run out of those fixtures.

Everton(H), Villa(H), West Ham(A), Brentford(A), Brighton(H), Chelsea(A), Palace(H).

That takes you up until April. That there is a run of games that you need to get form from. Struggling Everton, mid-table Villa, relegation battle with Brentford, Palace could yet be dragged into it. West Ham and Chelsea are the more difficult prospects, both away from home.

April is a much tougher prospect. Spurs(A), Wolves(H), Leicester(H), us(Norwich)(A), Liverpool(H).

Your last three games are Man City(A), Arsenal(H) and Burnley(A).

You see what I mean? Your next 6-7 games are easily the best run you have, and I would think, may even be better than other clubs around you. Playing Man City and Arsenal late on in the season may benefit you as well, as they may not have anything left to play for at that point and be half way to the beach already.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

Palace game feels very big to be. Win that and it buys us breathing space going into two likely defeats. Lose it and it’s likely to be three straight defeats and us back firmly rooted in the bottom three. For me, this game sets the tone for the rest of the season. If we can get a win I could then see us winning the 5 or 6 other games we will need to win. Hopefully with a couple of draws chucked in as well. Must not lose to our rivals at home either. 

[The Fish 12]

16 hours ago, chicken said:

That is true... but then, we spent all our money in the summer. Your main signing in the summer was Willock for £25m from what I can see. The others were youngsters for the future. Leeds are fairly similar actually, though they spent big on James from Man Utd for £25m too. 

So in a way it makes sense you needed to strengthen - because you were behind in that regard from the summer, having signed a single player.

Aye,  I don't think we'd be in the discussion had we made the same (or similar) signings in the summer and, more importantly, had got rid of Bruce in the summer.

So swings and roundabouts, though most managers will tell you they would prefer having players in for pre-season, or at least some of it. Though us pretty much didn't happen due to covid. Which goes back to the point of needing to give players games to find their legs, and being able to afford to give them games not to... Very much proof in the pudding. The added pressure will be Newcastle's immediate run of games are very attractive in terms of potential points gain, mess it up and you start to run out of those fixtures.

Everton(H), Villa(H), West Ham(A), Brentford(A), Brighton(H), Chelsea(A), Palace(H).

That takes you up until April. That there is a run of games that you need to get form from. Struggling Everton, mid-table Villa, relegation battle with Brentford, Palace could yet be dragged into it. West Ham and Chelsea are the more difficult prospects, both away from home.

I don't disagree. I think the only games we can almost, write off, there are West Ham and Chelsea away games. The others, we really need to be getting points from. I'd hope to get 12pts from the other 5 games. 

April is a much tougher prospect. Spurs(A), Wolves(H), Leicester(H), us(Norwich)(A), Liverpool(H).

5pts from that mess

Your last three games are Man City(A), Arsenal(H) and Burnley(A).

You see what I mean? Your next 6-7 games are easily the best run you have, and I would think, may even be better than other clubs around you. Playing Man City and Arsenal late on in the season may benefit you as well, as they may not have anything left to play for at that point and be half way to the beach already.

Hopefully Man City have the title sewn up and focusing on the Semi Finals of the Champions League. If we go into the final game needing a win, I think we can do it against Burnley.

 

End of the day, Howe has no excuses now.