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shefcanary

Farke - too close for comfort

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14 hours ago, kirku said:

You're a notoriously odious pr*ck at the best of times but the fact that it's so apparent when you've had a few jars - by someone reading your posts on a forum - should be a cause for legitimate concern

I drink about 5 units a week on average, and never at home.

Imagine showing yourself up as a keyboard slapper and then accusing me of being a problem drinker to deflect from your apparent IQ deficiency, and then making out that you aren't the odious one.

 

Edited by TeemuVanBasten
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2 hours ago, Hucks6 said:

Would any body trust Putin, the man is a moran

There's a lot you can accuse him of being, but a moron isn't one of them

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3 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I drink about 5 units a week on average, and never at home.

Imagine showing yourself up as a keyboard slapper and then accusing me of being a problem drinker to deflect from your apparent IQ deficiency, and then making out that you aren't the odious one.

 

You really are a tedious little man

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7 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Had odious and tedious now.

Glorious for the hat-trick?

Perfidious  perhaps?

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29 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

Perfidious perhaps?

Go have a walk around your 60 acres wcorkcanary, then you can come back and have a go at me for once working in a bank.

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9 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Go have a walk around your 60 acres wcorkcanary, then you can come back and have a go at me for once working in a bank.

Definitely Obnoxious.👍😉😇

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My heritage is Ukrainian Jewish, I fancy a visit to Kiev but perhaps not now. 

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On 25/01/2022 at 16:26, KiwiScot said:

Agreed. Ukraine could soon be declared russian territory though so an instant test of that

Not gonna happen. Relax

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11 hours ago, corbs said:

My heritage is Ukrainian Jewish, I fancy a visit to Kiev but perhaps not now. 

Interesting. While political chaos and the general vibes are probably quite bad at the moment, I find it extremely unlikely for the Russians to be rushing for Kiev with tanks. if you look at media from non-Anglo countries, Russian, Ukrainian, German, French, none of those seem to be believing that an invasion is imminent. However there is quite a bit of hysteria coming from certain Anglo media. I have no idea why though. The hysteria is strange. Has even reached this forum lol

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42 minutes ago, shruk4 said:

 However there is quite a bit of hysteria coming from certain Anglo media. I have no idea why though. 

Erh, being fed a line from No. 10 perhaps?  To deflect attention from Ms. Gray's little report?

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2 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

Erh, being fed a line from No. 10 perhaps?  To deflect attention from Ms. Gray's little report?

....which the police are sitting on......

As for Ukraine, Putin appears to be just willy waving and probably enjoying winding up the west.

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4 hours ago, shefcanary said:

Erh, being fed a line from No. 10 perhaps?  To deflect attention from Ms. Gray's little report?

World also doesnt revolve around London

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6 hours ago, shruk4 said:

However there is quite a bit of hysteria coming from certain Anglo media. I have no idea why though. The hysteria is strange. Has even reached this forum lol

The unprecedented build-up of troops and equipment has caused "the hysteria".

It's quite ominous

Edited by kirku

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18 hours ago, kirku said:

The unprecedented build-up of troops and equipment has caused "the hysteria".

It's quite ominous

Zelensky is literally telling America to stop being so hysterical. The former Ukrainian defence minister wrote an op-ed explaining that the 127k Russians who are in the vicinity of Ukraine (and lets once again stress, inside Russia) wouldnt be enough to invade Ukraine. So who do you believe? The Ukrainians who are telling you to relax, or the Americans who are telling you to worry

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On 29/01/2022 at 13:46, shefcanary said:

Erh, being fed a line from No. 10 perhaps?  To deflect attention from Ms. Gray's little report?

Sorry for my previous sarcastic response. You might have a point. Boris isnt doing too good in the polls is he?

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1 hour ago, shruk4 said:

Zelensky is literally telling America to stop being so hysterical. The former Ukrainian defence minister wrote an op-ed explaining that the 127k Russians who are in the vicinity of Ukraine (and lets once again stress, inside Russia) wouldnt be enough to invade Ukraine. So who do you believe? The Ukrainians who are telling you to relax, or the Americans who are telling you to worry

Zelensky isn't "the former Ukrainian defence minister"

Russian troops aren't only "inside Russia"

Ukraine is preparing for another invasion

The risk is highest now than it has been since the last invasion, what Zelensky said was an attempt to calm things down for economic reasons, not military. 

As for whether to believe the Americans or the Ukrainians, you can take both views with a pinch of salt but these days its incredible how easy it is to track troop and equipment movements via social media.

Edited by kirku

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4 hours ago, shruk4 said:

Zelensky is literally telling America to stop being so hysterical. The former Ukrainian defence minister wrote an op-ed explaining that the 127k Russians who are in the vicinity of Ukraine (and lets once again stress, inside Russia) wouldnt be enough to invade Ukraine. So who do you believe? The Ukrainians who are telling you to relax, or the Americans who are telling you to worry

I've seen idiots spouting this ludicrous piffle for two weeks now. 

Oooh there aren't enough to invade Ukraine. 

Those people simply do not understand the concept of military concentration. 

Russia is shipping huge numbers of specialist units from East to west, at huge expense. 

For an exercise? 

They also have double that number within 500km of Ukraine. 

Modern armoured forces can concentrate over that distance is three days. 

This idea that Russia isn't positioning to attack Ukraine, on the basis they don't have 300k men literally sitting on the border, shows the limited thinking most people have.

The truth is Russia has concentrated huge amounts of stuff and had reserves positioned further back. 

Will they invade? You'll find out around the 10th of Feb. 

 

As for the Ukrainian govt, you have no idea what they are saying in private. They are hardly going to panic their people by saying thousands of you will be dead in a fortnight are they. 

Use your brains. 

 

Edited by fredherring
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20 hours ago, fredherring said:

I've seen idiots spouting this ludicrous piffle for two weeks now. 

Oooh there aren't enough to invade Ukraine. 

Those people simply do not understand the concept of military concentration. 

Russia is shipping huge numbers of specialist units from East to west, at huge expense. 

For an exercise? 

They also have double that number within 500km of Ukraine. 

Modern armoured forces can concentrate over that distance is three days. 

This idea that Russia isn't positioning to attack Ukraine, on the basis they don't have 300k men literally sitting on the border, shows the limited thinking most people have.

The truth is Russia has concentrated huge amounts of stuff and had reserves positioned further back. 

Will they invade? You'll find out around the 10th of Feb. 

 

As for the Ukrainian govt, you have no idea what they are saying in private. They are hardly going to panic their people by saying thousands of you will be dead in a fortnight are they. 

Use your brains. 

 

Hehe. You seem to feel strongly about this? I would say that by citing a former Ukrainian defence minister I am in fact using my brain. If the Ukrainians actually believed a Russian invasion was imminent they would probably be saying so, in a effort of mustering up more support from America and the EU.

Why are you citing the 10th of february? Are "the ground gonna freeze over" by then? Such a ridiculous ww2 eastern front idea. 

You seem very self assured that an invasion is coming. Based on what exactly? Personally I find it highly, highly unlikely. If february passes without any major Russian offensive will you return here and apologize for your condescending tone? Or will you simply contrive some reason why your analysis was correct after all?

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On 30/01/2022 at 15:05, kirku said:

Zelensky isn't "the former Ukrainian defence minister"

Russian troops aren't only "inside Russia"

Ukraine is preparing for another invasion

The risk is highest now than it has been since the last invasion, what Zelensky said was an attempt to calm things down for economic reasons, not military. 

As for whether to believe the Americans or the Ukrainians, you can take both views with a pinch of salt but these days its incredible how easy it is to track troop and equipment movements via social media.

I know Zelensky is the president and I didnt mean to imply so. However looking back I see how my writing could have been read as such. My apologies, English is not my first language.

I agree that Zelensky's calls for calm probably have a partial economic motive. But if you actually believed that an invasion was imminent your priorities would be preparing for war, not worrying about the cost of money lending. At least that's how I see it.

As for comparing the Ukrainian, Russian and Anglo narratives on a potential war in ukraine I think the opinions and news coming out of Ukraine and Russia hold a higher degree of validity than the Anglo narratives.

Both Biden and Boris are dealing with record low approval ratings. Making it seem as if we are on the brink of war to then strike a grand peace deal with Russia and Ukraine would improve the approval rating of everyone, including Putin, but perhaps not Zelensky. thats just a theory though.

Another factor is possibly Nordstream 2. The pipeline going through the Baltic, which is borderline operational, would deepen the ties between Russia and Germany which is something America and Britain would rather not see happen.

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Never get involved with politics, religion or other men’s wives 

Two out of three ain’t bad

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The truth is none of us know. It is very, very possible this is just an expensive, protracted threat/game playing from Putin and the likelihood is that diplomacy will probably work out in the end - that's where my money would be if I was betting on it. However, how anyone can find it 'highly, highly unlikey' that he will invade is bizarre at best and insane at worst. He has already killed people in London, annexed Crimea and had an incursion into Georgia in his tenure. It is 100% possible he could invade and the west are rightly concerned about it. This is nothing to do with approval ratings. Its obvious why German and French media are reacting the way they are and that's because the EU (Germany in particular) relies heavily on Russian gas, so they will always downplay what Putin is doing to keep the lights on.

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1 hour ago, shruk4 said:

I agree that Zelensky's calls for calm probably have a partial economic motive. But if you actually believed that an invasion was imminent your priorities would be preparing for war, not worrying about the cost of money lending. At least that's how I see it.

Ukraine absolutely is preparing for war (I have family out there). 

The sheer amount of equipment and troops moved towards the Ukrainian border (and into Belarus) is vastly expensive and unprecedented (in context of previous training exercises or readiness inspections).

Let's all hope it's simply pressure from Putin but he could've achieved that without the vast amount of mobilisation - and that's what concerns me most (and has spooked most of Europe).

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won his last 2 games. Friendlies I think Farke is like nothin' gets the blood flowing like football under the shadow of war.

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3 minutes ago, kirku said:

Let's all hope it's simply pressure from Putin but he could've achieved that without the vast amount of mobilisation - and that's what concerns me most (and has spooked most of Europe).

Agreed, I was thinking that surely all Putin has to do to get listened to in the West is just turn off the gas. 

Of course its more complicated than that because Russia needs the petrodollars the gas brings now.  And the EU countries currently relying on this gas are all exploring alternative provision, which although it may take some time to bring to market in sufficient quantity to replace the gas will happen eventually, so Putin needs to make hay while the proverbial gas is shining. 

But this doesn't justify an invasion of Ukraine to snap the EU to listen, rather the opposite.  Which is why it is not entirely obvious to anyone why Putin is doing all this.  His business backers are likely just as nervous as the West, so it must be aimed at the ordinary man in the Russian street?  They may not care too much once their young men start returning in coffins if that's the way it happens, which coupled with financial sanctions and the switching off of the gas pipe by the EU once the USA starts shipping to them, rather means taking such a route seems nonsensical.  

I'm really struggling to understand his motivation ........

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33 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

I'm really struggling to understand his motivation ........

On a basic level, Putin is partly motivated by the fall of the USSR and how the West "exploited Russian weakness". He has sought to restore the level of pride and influence Russia enjoyed back then. He has seen western soft power be overwhelmingly more attractive to almost all former Soviet states in eastern Europe and so has resorted to hard power and propping up puppet regimes to retain influence (see Lukashenko).

As you said, the economic situation is hugely interdependent but we also know that Russian decision makers are very much insulated from such situations and the oligarchs understand how power flows directly from Putin himself. I believe they've also built up a large foreign exchange reserve..

The 2014 invasion was actually a rather large strategic failure for Russia (in the short-term, at least, and despite the "success" of annexing Crimea and the support for the Donbas "republics") because it was likely intended to try to cower Ukraine into falling back under his sphere of influence (which abruptly ended when the Maidan protests helped remove Yanuykovych) - if anything it has entrenched them further. 

However, it has succeeded in as much as the likelihood of Ukrainian EU or NATO membership must've been drastically reduced by the current Russian action - and perhaps that's enough for him? 

This is my very basic understanding/analysis of the situation - far from an expert!

Edited by kirku
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On 30/01/2022 at 18:40, fredherring said:

I've seen idiots spouting this ludicrous piffle for two weeks now. 

Oooh there aren't enough to invade Ukraine. 

Those people simply do not understand the concept of military concentration. 

Russia is shipping huge numbers of specialist units from East to west, at huge expense. 

For an exercise? 

They also have double that number within 500km of Ukraine. 

Modern armoured forces can concentrate over that distance is three days. 

This idea that Russia isn't positioning to attack Ukraine, on the basis they don't have 300k men literally sitting on the border, shows the limited thinking most people have.

The truth is Russia has concentrated huge amounts of stuff and had reserves positioned further back. 

Will they invade? You'll find out around the 10th of Feb. 

 

As for the Ukrainian govt, you have no idea what they are saying in private. They are hardly going to panic their people by saying thousands of you will be dead in a fortnight are they. 

Use your brains. 

 

Has the Ukrainian ground froze already? Im very curiously waiting your expert opinions

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On 29/01/2022 at 11:02, shruk4 said:

Interesting. While political chaos and the general vibes are probably quite bad at the moment, I find it extremely unlikely for the Russians to be rushing for Kiev with tanks. if you look at media from non-Anglo countries, Russian, Ukrainian, German, French, none of those seem to be believing that an invasion is imminent. However there is quite a bit of hysteria coming from certain Anglo media. I have no idea why though. The hysteria is strange. Has even reached this forum lol

You know why? Russia is trolling us, they have been since influencing first the EU referendum and then by putting money into Boris' campaign funds in the subsequent general election.

Watch what happens. If there is no invasion, there will be some sort of deal and Bojo will be hailed as some sort of new hero. Or whoever will be that they want to back for leadership next.

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