(Whisper it but) we are playing far better than 3 teams

[City 101 83]

We need a striker to give us half a chance , Pukki and Idah just don’t cut it in my opinion, neither looked like having an attempt Friday let alone scoring . Oh for some of that Premiership money to spend .

[shefcanary 2,377]

So, I'm an old fashioned guy and I like the last 6 game current form table to reference where I think the club is and heading.  This suggests we are actually doing better than 7 (yes Seven) other clubs, and only a point off matching two other teams, one win off of being 8th best in the league.  Anyone take any comfort in that - I do.

Premier League Form.docx

[Robert N. LiM 4,222]

16 hours ago, Danbury Yellow said:

When the three below us have caught up in games played, I suspect we will be back in the bottom three, but at least in the mix and not cut adfrift.

Agreed. And most of us would have bitten the hand off anyone who had offered us that scenario a few weeks ago. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,222]

3 hours ago, Google Bot said:

If they maintained this points average, targeting them is a very good measure

If I were Smith, that's what I'd be doing. I'd be saying to the squad, "Let's catch Brentford." So much better psychologically to be looking up than fixating on the teams below and around us. If we can finish above them, we'll stay up. 

[Jimmy Raggatip 59]

we need Brentford to beat Newcastle, Burnley and Watford, we don't need to suck other teams in, just need to get that sweet 17th spot! I think its folly to think we can get above Brentford, but they will be a big candidate for 2nd season syndrome

[Six Pack 91]

10 hours ago, Google Bot said:

Statistically speaking, Brentford are at parity with number of points vs games played.  And that's also the simplified point per game target for survival.

How far we are from them right now, is an indication of how far we are from survival. 

The table is incredibly muddled with games played being all over the shop.  But you can draw a direct parallel to them - particularly as  they're one of the closest in regards to squad ability/worth.  If they maintained this points average, targeting them is a very good measure (imo).

Cheers Google Bot !

[Jim Smith 2,314]

13 hours ago, Jimmy Raggatip said:

we need Brentford to beat Newcastle, Burnley and Watford, we don't need to suck other teams in, just need to get that sweet 17th spot! I think its folly to think we can get above Brentford, but they will be a big candidate for 2nd season syndrome

We need to beat Palace, Brentford, Newcastle and Burnley at home and then pick up a couple more wins from the remaining games. Do that and we should be ok. 

[Capt. Pants 4,194]

Will be interesting to see if Burnley trouser the £25m for Wood or if they reinvest in the squad. I don't think they will score enough goals to stay up otherwise.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,131]

11 pts from 11 games under Smith. Yes we've had the covid and injury crisis but we've not had to play Man City, Liverpool or Chelsea in that time so it kind of balances it out for me.

That suggests that if we'd had Smith from the start of the season somehow we'd have stayed up comfortably but assuming we don't get another injury crisis we're probably looking at another 14-18 points from the last 16 games which will mean finishing on 30-34 points based on Smith's PPG so far if we maintain the performance levels seen at the start and most recent two games of his tenure.

Will that be enough? Hard to say at this point, we need to see what Burnley do with their games in hand, which manager comes in at Watford and see how the signings settle in at Newcastle. It's all up in the air right now

[Mason 47 1,371]

If we can find another 6 wins, I think we'll do it. Particularly as those wins, you'd be looking at Burnley, Newcastle and Brentford at home which has that 6-pointer affect as it stunts their progress.

Beat Palace next up and there's blood in water.

[Beefy is a legend 224]

18 hours ago, Jimmy Raggatip said:

we need Brentford to beat Newcastle, Burnley and Watford, we don't need to suck other teams in, just need to get that sweet 17th spot! I think its folly to think we can get above Brentford, but they will be a big candidate for 2nd season syndrome

The reality is we need to look after ourselves and get to about 35pts. If we do that the other results are largely irrelevant. That points tally will get us in and around 17th. 

I still think that will be beyond us. Palace is a significant game because if we don't win that we will have 16 or 17 points after 25 games and we will surely be back at the foot of the table. If we can find a win then that will offset the likely defeats to come v Citeh and Liverpool and keep us close to 17th. 

But like others have said, at least we are in the conversation now. And if we go down in a close run thing, that isn't half as embarrassing as finishing bottom without even troubling the rest of the league.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Beefy is a legend

[dylanisabaddog 4,845]

On 23/01/2022 at 18:27, hogesar said:

Brentford are in free fall, are 7 points ahead BUT crucially have played a game more. So whilst it's unlikely, if we were to somehow beat Palace we are talking about 4 points. That gets them involved.

Their remaining fixtures. I've just had a couple of quid on them to be relegated