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Pugin

(Whisper it but) we are playing far better than 3 teams

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Namely Burnley, Brentford and Watford. We really can stay up this time.

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5 minutes ago, Pugin said:

Namely Burnley, Brentford and Watford. We really can stay up this time.

Well yeah, but they have played better than us for long parts of the season too.

Things can change quickly in this league, but momentum is precious so if we can take anything against Palace...

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I still feel though that Burnley have enough about them to grind out results 

Edited by YellowCanary

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We need to be realistic, we are not going to catch Brentford but agreed on the other two. Everton are bad enough to go down though, I really believe that. Going to get interesting if we keep this up.

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4 minutes ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

We need to be realistic, we are not going to catch Brentford but agreed on the other two. Everton are bad enough to go down though, I really believe that. Going to get interesting if we keep this up.

Brentford are in free fall, are 7 points ahead BUT crucially have played a game more. So whilst it's unlikely, if we were to somehow beat Palace we are talking about 4 points. That gets them involved.

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55 minutes ago, Pugin said:

Namely Burnley, Brentford and Watford. We really can stay up this time.

I love the positivity but form changes throughout the season. Burnley and Watford may get better with key players back from Afcon Burnley also have four games in hand on ua. Brentford are quite a bit ahead of us and have just signed Erikson.  We can stay up but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. 

Edited by Alex

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2 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Brentford are in free fall, are 7 points ahead BUT crucially have played a game more. So whilst it's unlikely, if we were to somehow beat Palace we are talking about 4 points. That gets them involved.

Weren't they over 10 points clear of us a few games ago too? Still plenty of time for some twists, nice to see the belief level back up though!

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33 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Brentford are in free fall, are 7 points ahead BUT crucially have played a game more. So whilst it's unlikely, if we were to somehow beat Palace we are talking about 4 points. That gets them involved.

4pts, with us to play them at home so potentially 1.

 

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42 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Brentford are in free fall, are 7 points ahead BUT crucially have played a game more. So whilst it's unlikely, if we were to somehow beat Palace we are talking about 4 points. That gets them involved.

They are signing Eriksen this week. That's at least 5 goals from free kicks before the end of the season. I don't think they are in trouble, but would love to be proved wrong.

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Everton are surely the most catchable, I don’t see Ferguson being able to do much and actually apart from a couple, they don’t have a great squad. 

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Its all really down to us.

There are more than enough points available to us to escape the drop. Yes it nice when others drop points but at the moment we just need to concentrate on ourselves.

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3 hours ago, Pugin said:

Namely Burnley, Brentford and Watford. We really can stay up this time.

Hard to tell as Burnley never actually play, and when they finally did today they drew at Arsenal.

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The simple fact is we need to beat our rivals down there with us and pick up some additional points against better teams, and I class a win against Palace as a must win to create a little gap before we play the top two.  30 points might be enough. 

When the three below us have caught up in games played, I suspect we will be back in the bottom three, but at least in the mix and not cut adfrift. We have a chance here, two games ago we were out of it, which shows how critical small runs are in this fight. Brentford, as others have noted could be effectively only 1 point above us if we win our game in hand, then defeat them at home. 

So very doable, you’ve got to love the challenge! 

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Only we could find ourselves in a relegation battle with a hardy team who have 4 games in hand, and a team who find themselves a £300 billion owner ahead of January transfer window.  🙂

Was comparing matchday 22 in previous seasons. Not sure if it gives an kind of indication on what kind of points we maybe could expect for survival, but 29 points like last season - imagine that, I'd really start to hope. 

But if we're implying that Brentford, Watford and Burnley are the main weaknesses - we've gone from 1 point above relegation zone to 7 points behind what we are saying are 3rd weakest team.

18/19 - Matchday 22

image.png.ac398cd7fc3d908c8fd624b0580ced91.png

18/19 - Final Positions (35 pts for survival)

image.png.7f58485038a7867895bf7b9ad537d5e3.png

 

19/20 - Matchday 22

image.png.efabc7b060c7f34f243e635ef55fe0c1.png

19/20 - Final Positions (35 pts for survival)

image.png.ed52f25f24c8d60ade6de9931bb09683.png

 

20/21 - Matchday 22

image.png.c63ce3c1cae487c877430b00139a63f5.png

20/21 - Final Positions (29 pts for survival)

image.png.ee67d27ef86ec83998ad32c2d4c1ee89.png

 

 

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I can't see us getting over 30 points. I struggle to see us getting over 25 unless we can prove Watford wasn't a fluke and we can actually compete. I'd feel more confident if Newcastle hadn't been taken over but can't see them not signing another player or two before the end of the month

 

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6 hours ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

We need to be realistic, we are not going to catch Brentford but agreed on the other two. Everton are bad enough to go down though, I really believe that. Going to get interesting if we keep this up.

Don't forget that we play Brentford. 

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8 hours ago, Beefy is a legend said:

In last 9 games freefalling Brentford have 6 points. Norwich have 7 points. 

Perception is a weird thing.

 

Funny you should choose the last 9 games, especially since over the last 8 games we have double the points of Brentford... You're right, perception is a weird thing...

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I'm not sure why people are targeting Brentford when there are teams like Everton & Leeds directly above us. I'm not fussy who goes down - any 3 teams instead of us. If I had a choice I prefer Everton & Watford to go down. If we can compete against the bottom 10 and play as we did against Watford, we have a chance of winning quite a few games. We will get a better picture after Crystal Palace, if we can't beat them - it will confirm our level and we will struggle to win enough points to stay up. 

 

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I'm not convinced we've been playing better than the teams around us, to be honest. Good against Everton yes, and a perfect result against Watford - but lets be honest another day we don't get a rub of the green and that game finishes 0-0 or even a home win. 3-0 win with 2 shots on target... 

And then we have the 6 games prior where we were totally hopeless for the most part (even accepting that the injuries affected us it was pathetic).

However, I am much more hopeful now we have players coming back from injury, particularly with Normann to follow soon too - look how much better he made us under Farke. A similar level of improvement in this current Smith side will see us become a really functional outfit.  

But I expect Burnley will keep picking up points, and just need to nick a win or two and then they could easily be ahead once their games in hand are played. DITTO Newcastle, and who knows who they're going to sign before the end of the window. 

I still find it hard to believe Leeds or Everton will be sucked into it although I am expecting us, Burnley and Newcastle to all improve, Brentford could still pick up again and I think they'll have enough. Watford are done for though IMO. 

I would still consider it a minor miracle if we stayed up from here to be honest. 

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We're doing ok.  Brentford if they carry on losing will be in the mix. Everton too. Newcastle could improve, but despite their money are unpredictable, so imo it will six clubs who will be fighting it out with us. All those clubs have good players so are capable of results, but if we continue improving, we can make it a good fight.

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Personally I didnt think we played well at Watford but got the result. They clearly have a better quality of player than us and will no doubt pick up points. Lets just hope for some injuries to return to improve our core and the upturn in confidence can gain us more points in order to obtain safety. I think so many players we have are nowhere near the quality required to play at this level.

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5 hours ago, Six Pack said:

I'm not sure why people are targeting Brentford when there are teams like Everton & Leeds directly above us.

Statistically speaking, Brentford are at parity with number of points vs games played.  And that's also the simplified point per game target for survival.

How far we are from them right now, is an indication of how far we are from survival. 

The table is incredibly muddled with games played being all over the shop.  But you can draw a direct parallel to them - particularly as  they're one of the closest in regards to squad ability/worth.  If they maintained this points average, targeting them is a very good measure (imo).

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18 hours ago, sgncfc said:

They are signing Eriksen this week. That's at least 5 goals from free kicks before the end of the season. I don't think they are in trouble, but would love to be proved wrong.

They are the only side out of the current bottom 4 that I think could dragged into a scrap. 

You can forget about your Evertons & Palace etc. Its 3 from Brentford, Watford, Burnley, Newcastle and us.

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13 hours ago, AJ said:

I can't see us getting over 30 points. I struggle to see us getting over 25 unless we can prove Watford wasn't a fluke and we can actually compete. I'd feel more confident if Newcastle hadn't been taken over but can't see them not signing another player or two before the end of the month

 

I'm inclined to agree. We have 4 huge home games v Brentford, Burnley, Newcastle and Palace. Even if we do really well and take say 9 points from those, we still need another 10 points to get to 35. You really are scratching around as to how we do that. 

We probably will have to win one of the games at Leeds, Brighton or Southampton. Then maybe we can beat Spurs on the last day particularly if they don't have a great deal to play for. We are going to have to pull out a couple of superb wins from somewhere, that's for sure. 

There is a hell of a lot of work to do and I'm particularly concerned about Newcastle. They are going to add 3 or 4 quality players and they have a pretty nice run of fixtures coming up. 

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Lots of things will have to go in our favour.

possible but still unlikely.

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